Who should be more worried?

Over on politicalbetting.com they are asking who should be more worried about the latest bouts of polls about the leaders of the three main parties (click here for the full thread).

All 3 leaders have gone up but Cameron (up 2) less than Clegg (up 6) and Miliband (up 4). Should the PM be concerned about this?

Maybe not as much as you might think; the details show that 95% of Tory voters think that Mr Cameron is doing well; compared to 79% of LibDems voters for Clegg and, most worryingly of all, just 72% of Labour voters for Miliband. Any leader needs to be at 90% plus for his or her own supporters, really.

What is also noteworthy is the cross-over between the LibDems and the Tories; 71% of LibDems feels that Cameron is doing well and 68% of Tories think the same of Nick Clegg.

So where does that leave us? God knows, but it shows that if you pay too much attention to the polls it can make your head hurt and leave you more confused than where you started!

How has Cable defied political gravity?

I am a loyal Conservative; very loyal, in fact, and I support the work of David Cameron specifically as Prime Minister and the Tory-led coalition generally. They are a much better government than Labour could ever have formed. However, tonight, the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister have made a big mistake and even loyal Conservatives have to say this.

This morning, the Cable story (I thought) was a light hearted pre-Christmas story about a puffed up LibDem in government; let's remind ourselves that Mr Cable said if he ever quit, or was forced from government, that he had the nuclear option of bringing down the administration. Tough talking (and in my view, wholly wrong, but never mind).

By this evening he has had a chance to prove himself to be correct. If any other Minister, let alone a Tory one, had done what Cable did then they would be out. The PM could have re-shuffled him, he could have quit or even been sacked. But he hasn't been - how? Do they really fear losing Vince Cable that much, or as some have suggested had they just not wanted to give into media pressure? Many are speculating that Cable fought his corner well and clung on because neither Clegg nor Cameron want a lightening-rod for the anti-coalition voices on the government side of the House.

So what now? Well, a lot depends on tomorrow's headlines ... the media will go for this, the commentators are working as a pack tonight, Labour scent blood and at the very best we have a weakened and even lame-duck Business Secretary.

Some Conservatives are lining up behind Vince tonight, but I feel that I have to say how much I believe this decision to be wrong and could potentially yet backfire on the whole government. I am not alone; Twitter is alight too, with loyal Conservatives saying the same thing.

Cable has defied political gravity today, but my feeling is that to save one man, the whole government is damaged.

Could Coalition be the end of Collective Responsibility?

The sight of LibDem squirming over the tuition fees vote has not been a pleasant sight. First Vince Cable, and now Nick Clegg, have been been done over by the media and (to a lesser extent) by Labour MPs over their apparent discomfort over what to do in the lobbies. In particular the sight of Mr Cable not voting for a piece of legislation that he co-wrote and will be piloting through the Commons is bizarre to say the least.

Some LibDems are, of course, being more straight forward and honest. Jon Leech, one of Manchester's LibDem MPs, has announced he will oppose the move as has Cardiff LibDem MP Jenny Willmot. The difference is, I suppose, that Ms Willmot is a PPS and thus technically covered by collective responsibility - the idea that all Minister must back the government in a vote or resign their position. PPSs quitting is nothing new and many will simply be recycled in a few months time, so why is Ms Willmot holding on like this?

Regulars will know that I am not a fan of collective responsibility on the whole. If the legislation is yours (a la Cable) then yes, you must be duty bound to vote for it. But why can't our politics to be grown up enough for somebody to say that they disagree with X policy but still want to remain part of the government because they back the other 99% of the programme? If we know this in advance, why shouldn't MPs do the adult thing? Will be see David Lidington and Cheryl Gillan quit the government over High Speed Rail links that threaten their constituencies? I hope not; they should be free to speak and vote against that part of the government programme but work had to deliver the rest of it.

Controversial, maybe, but might the coalition agreement weaken the doctrine of collective responsibility? I hope so.

UPDATE; a friend points out the CR seems to be a problem for this government only, the previous lot used to regularly, for example, campaign against hospital closures in their areas without quitting the government that imposed them

A Reason to Recall?

A puzzler for a Sunday evening; would the Chris Huhne affair, or the David Laws expenses issue, be enough to allow their constituencts to re-call them under the new provisions being laid out by David Cameron and Nick Clegg?

Mr Cameron has said in the past that re-call would be option where MPs have been "guilty of wrongdoing." Would this include, as some people have suggested today about Huhne, misleading your constituents over your private life?

Personally I hope not, and I have concerns that the re-call function would be too easily triggered (10% is required in any given constituency - one party alone could probably manage this in most seats). We need to know, and know soon, what safeguards will be put in place. This is crucial and very difficult question, and I don't have an answer, because those safeguards are needed for 2 reasons - for MPs against mob-rule and for the public against wrongdoing MPs. Can we manage both?

Cameron's Coalition (Day One)

Brown's gone ... Cameron's in.

The names have started to roll in that will make up a new cabinet - Osbourne as Chancellor, Hague as Foreign Secretary, Fox at Defence and Lansley at Health all confirmed. First 2 LibDems; Clegg as DPM and Alexander at the Scottish Office.

An absolutely historic day - we'll wait to see what the deal on the table is later on today.

Rank Hypocrisy

Anybody spot an hypocrisy here;

LibDem Leader Nick Clegg appears on the BBC telling people to vote for the party they believe in and says no politicans should tell you to support a party you don't wish to.

LibDem candidate Simon Wright issues a newspaper to people in Norwich South that has fourteen (yes, 14) references to tactical voting, telling people that some parties can't win and so you ought to back the party that can beat Labour.

Hypocrisy?

I am proud of our positive campaign here in Norwich South, I wonder if Mr Wright will look back and think the same about his?

A Good Day To Be A Conservative

As Nick Clegg found out a fortnight ago, the debates can indeed change everything - and David Cameron's masterful, statesmanlike, passionate and dominant performance last night has put a spring in the step of Tory activists and voters - and a real reason for undecided voetrs to lend us their votes. My feeling is that Cameron's performance was so strong because he both talked in terms of values (We are on the side of people who do the right thing) and then in specific policies (we will remove benefits from those who can work but who do not). Clegg looked and sounded nervous, and it showed. He was battered on the Euro and immigration; and for benefit of LibDems out there, "old politics" is when you have a promise in your manifesto that you dump live on TV when you realise its unpopular and unworkable. However Clegg did better on domestic policies, such as education. Brown was again better, but he started from a low base; he needs to lose the stats rolling off like a soviet propaganda film and shouldn't ever smile when it isn't appropriate to do so! My favourite bit was actually Cameron's credo about education - the central role of the child and the importance of choice, standards, discipline and funding. That was, according to Mrs Little (who is a teacher herself), the moment he may just have won the election.

This morning we have been bombarded with calls and visits at the Campaign HQ from pleased Tories and also voters coming across to us for the first time. I have just got back from a session with out Mancroft team and the peopel I met whilst leafleting were very positive. The news from the other groups around the seat is very similar.

Mr Cameron - you have given us what we wanted. For the sake of our country we need to win this election. The Hung Parliament is Mr Brown's lifeline, with Mr Clegg throwing the lifejacket to him, so we must get an overall Tory majority. Conservatives, we've got 5 days to make this a reality - let's get to it!

Greens Killer Instinct

Rupert Read lays into Clegg, Wright and the LibDems.

Dont click here if you are politically squeamish!

Revolution on the Streets!

Take a look at this very funny film on Telegraph TV of a student apparently burning a Tory leaflets after listening to a Nick Clegg speech. 2 things spring to mind.

Firstly they seem totally incapable of actually burning the leaflet. When the video starts it looks like they've had several goes already and failed! They then fail to set it alight for the camera and their revolutionary moment ends with one of the students weakly tearing up the semi-chargrilled leaflet and stamping on it. It's hardly a Vietnam-style protest effort and the pair of them look ridiculous by the end!

And secondly, what on earth could Nick Clegg have possibly have said to prompt this sort of action? Are LibDems now in favour of revolutionary Tory leaflet street burning efforts? (Don't worry, Tory-leaflet burning students everywhere, under LibDem plans you won't be sent to jail for your insurgency!)

Now this is the real advantage of hand held cameras - we all get to share in these wonderful moments!

Post Debate Thoughts

I am sure I am the last person in the world to reflect on last night but I thought I would have my two pennies worth.

Firstly some randon thoughts in no particular order - well done to ITV - and indeed all the broadcasters and parties for making it happen. I never thought it would. The rules didn't seem to inhibit proper debate, although I felt the moderator stepped in at some of the best moment. The set was awful. It was good to see the programme without commercial breaks. And I thought it was a little bit strange to see the party leaders - whom we usually only see interact in the House of Commons - caling each other Nick, David & Gordon.

Were there any killer blows - no. Knock out punches? No. Great one-liners? Zilch.

In fact, despite the better format I am not sure that anybody really learnt anything about politics. The left (and I mean, the combined left - LibDems, Labour & Greens) united to pour bile on Cameron, the Conservatives thought he did well. 80% of people thought the Prime Minister did badly. So, basically - your man won (whoever your man is). But - I would like next time for the debate to be slower and more thoughtful. I felt the speed of responses was fast and the pace of the debate was frenetic.

And finally a word about each of them. Clegg was thought to be the winner on the night,no doubt aided by being "introduced" to people and distancing himself from the other two parties. I thought presentationally he did well butwas weaker when challenged on his own policies. He tried to referee stance (used well by Vince Cable) but it didn't work because Cameron challenged him 4 times over Libdem policies. This was much more the media star we were promised when he became leader. He was clearly very well briefed. However - my big criticism would be that he was unable to adapt. For example, when Cameron used the stat about 4,000 educational diktats per year, Clegg still "revealed" the same stat in his answer. He should have acknowledged it from Cameron.

Brown looked the odd one out and sounded the most robotic. Some people said they saw the real Gordon and passion in him; I must have missed it. My view is that his answers were still too formula driven and laden with stats. His insistance that things were not as the general public saw them (defence, crime, immigration) did not go down well and he ought to be have addressed Cameron's repeated point of being in government for 13 years. As one LibDem said, he had low expectations and failed to meet them - I think this is a little harsh but clearly this format is not good for the PM, but he may yet learn. In addition he came armed with a lot of little "one liners" but Labour know you can only use them once!

True Cameron was by far the most polished - I think his experiences at umpteen Cameron Direct town hall meetings will have helped - and some people believe this was his biggest fault. I felt Cameron had the strongest begining (going on expenses straight way was the right thing to do) and ending (positive, up beat). But he did confound my expecations - very few jokes, no yah-boo stuff and little rising to the jibes of the others. He had the most policy to lay out but in that he attracted most criticism and at times became a little bogged down. However, as I said, I felt he did the best (as expected!)

So we now look forward to the second debate with great interest - my rolling scores are Cameron 8, Clegg 7, Brown 4

Campaign Diary - Day Seven

Now my feet are really starting to hurt!

A day on the campaign trail has taken me all over the constituency today, starting off in the South Park area and heading up Newmarket Road delivering letters which tell people why I decided to stand for parliament. This letter has got a response so far and is relentlessly positive and goes into what I hope to achieve as an MP.

I then went over to the studios at Radio Norwich to pre-record some election clips and then the horror of a Pop Quiz and some questions about the constituency. I thought I knew very little about pop music, but clearly teaching in a High School and having small children have benefits because I did rather well. I got all the constituency questions right - good job given the fact I live and work in the City!

This afternoon we had a number of visits to do and I particularly enjoyed dropping by one residential home - not least because of the excellent tea and biscuits (first sit down I'd had all day). IIt was good to have time and comfort to discuss issues that you rarely get on the doorstep. These "coffee morning" style events are also good because the audience are self-selecting and they choose to hear from the candidate. Clear from discussions that the actions of the City Council are damaging Mr Clarke's campaign and many people are frustrated with being told by one party that other parties cannot win! We managed to get around 5 events this afternoon at whirlwind pace - well done to the team who managed to keep up!

And this evening we hit the doorsteps in Town Close and found a very good response. A lot of people still concerned about the possibility of a hung parliament and what the LibDems would do. One lady put in best when she said she couldn't wake up with a LibDem MP but to find Gordon Brown still there! There was genuine anger about the LibDem campaign but people very much welcomed our positive campaign. In addition, education was a big issue and so too was the economy. One businessman I spoke to said he had his head in his hands over Labour's NI rise. People seemed very pleased to see us and it felt very good on the ground.

Home just in time to watch Nick Clegg getting the Paxo treatment on the BBC. I am afraid his answers on tax, a hung parliament, immigration and the NHS were very poor indeed. He was much better - and much more passionate - on education. Clegg doesn't come across as a very strong media performer, but I was told by someone he was deliberately poor to reduce expectation for the debate. Can it be true ...?

I'll be thumbing through Labour's manifesto later so will let you know what I think!

Facing Both Ways?

Clegg on BBC today: "Any increase in taxation is unwelcome."

LibDem policy at every General Election I can remember has been ... to raise tax? So LibDem policy is unwelcome?

Clegg's Haiti Moment

Nick Clegg is a careerist politican, we shouldn't forget that, but somebody ought to be briefing him on events and how to behave in the outside world. Mr Clegg, whom we should not forget cannot tell you how much the basic state pension is but can remember his exact number of lovers, has done it again - pushing the case for donating to the DEC on behalf of the victims of the terrible Haiti earthquake but then being forced to reveal he hadn't done it himself! (More here). Some are even saying that Clegg is getting better on policy but worse on being in touch with real-life; his decision to quit shopping at Waitrose because of the recession, a classic.

The question for me, though, is do we have a right to know if politicans donate to charities and, if so, which ones? Generally "no", but we do expect our politicans to practice what they preach.

p.s. I have donated; not directly the DEC website but to "bucket shakers" in the street whom must have mobilised very fast and give up their time to back this excellent cause.

Exclusive (biscuit) poll says Gordon set for landslide

Forget the real polling, tonight I have the results of a new and exclusive poll which shows Gordon Brown set to have a landslide fourth term and the LibDems almost wiped out of the Commons.

At tonight's ND Sixth Form open evening I asked visitors to eat the biscuit which represents their favourite and which thus represents the party leader they are most aligned with.

Whilst Dave's biscuit choice has a steady trickle, Clegg's biscuits remained almost entirely in place and Gordon's flew off the plate.

If Gordon is as in touch with the country on other issue as he clearly is with biscuits, I can strongly predict a fourth Labour term and maybe even a Labour Gain in South Norfolk? Who knows...

Who told Clegg this was a good idea?

The start of the LibDem conference has been marked by a "savage attack" by Nick Clegg on David Cameron - though the interview I saw on ITN was rather more stuttering than savage. Clegg, who was elected in part because of his media savvy skills, seems to be getting worse as time goes on. Either that or in comparison to Cameron he just seems to be getting worse.

This betrays the worry of the LibDem Leader about who the real challenge is at the election. I am told that the loss of their South West powerbases at the recent county elections has made a lot of LibDems across the country very jittery about the Tory threat in their seats. What would happen if they went backwards at this election? For a start, Clegg's leadership would be over and (assuming he clings on in his own marginal seat) Chris Huhne would be ready to strike.

However, let's say the election result shows a collapse against the Tories but losses are offset against a dozen or so gains from Labour; even if the numbers are down, Clegg could claim a victory of sorts and if Cameron landslides then he could claim nothing could have stopped the Tories and the defeats are to be expected.

So therefore, what on earth is Clegg doing having a political pop at Cameron when the wide-open goal of Labour sits before him and with it, the only chance of him clinging onto his job.

Clegg humiliated in Norwich?

Following in David Cameron's footsteps by visiting Norwich this week, LibDem chief Nick Clegg did a webchat with EDP readers before his public meeting in Hellesdon.

Bearing in mind that the Evening News said that Cameron left "Norwich wanting more" and was "warmly welcomed", it must be an IT glitch that meant Nick Clegg only got 2 members of the public to submit questions on his Webchat.

Click here to see what you think, but it is sad that the EDP newsdesk had to make up the numbers asking questions. It must either be an error on the website, or Clegg may as well do door knocking himself - he'll speak to more people that way!

Clegg's shift on MPs expenses

I am all in favour of people coming around to my way of thinking, but what has prompted this move from publicity-deprived LibDem Leader Nick Clegg we wonder?

After all, Mr Clegg has claimed the maximum allowance for a second home as recently as last year including the costs of doing it up. No doubt Mr Clegg will be happy to pass the profits to the taxpayers, but would he have been happy to have done that if the storm over expenses hadn't blown up? Discuss.

LibDems will scrap plans to dual the A11

Anybody who attended the City Council debate on the subject of dualing the A11 may be surprised by that blog headline, but once again the gulf between local and national LibDem parties is startling.

In order to make his back-on-an-envelope £20bn tax cuts stack up, LibDem Leader Nick Clegg is announcing the savings in dribs and drabs as and when they are dreamed up. Last week this included cutting the road building programme by 90% (yes, ninety percent). This would, inevitably, include the work that is needed on the A11 and the A47.

I happen to believe that this was seen as an easy hit for Clegg; enhances his environmental credentials and provides a serious wodge of cash for his tax cut plans. However the arrogance of the national party means that was never communicated with the local party nor alligned against local priorities.

So local LibDem Chiefs will be left to answer to local people about why the A11 won't be dualled under the LibDem spending plans.

This decision couldn't have come at a worse time for business in Norwich and Norfolk; and again demonstrates why the LibDems can't be trusted with the big decisions.

Nick Clegg vs. the Norwich LibDems over who is more arrogant

We're all used to the hypocrisy of the LibDems, but even this takes the biscuit; just as they are claiming to be a joined-up party!

As part of an interview with the BBC (more here) Nick Clegg came out with this line:

Asked who he might support in the event of a hung Parliament, Mr Clegg said it was "arrogant" to second guess voters.

Apparently it is, according to Mr Clegg, arrogant to assume who people will vote for. So how does he square that with the usual utterings of his local parties:

Conservatives out of the race ... its so close here ... our next MP will be LibDem Simon Wright or Labour's man Charles Clarke - no other result is possible

How arrogant does that make the Norwich LibDems? To tell local people that no other result is possible other than the choice the LibDems give them. Aren't they second-guessing the voters in a big way?

Nick Clegg may like to use that line to get out of a hole with regards to which way they would jump in a hung parliament, but when his candidates up and down the country are being as arrogant as to assume they know the way people will vote means either they are in direct conflict. So that leaves us with 2 scenarios:

Either Clegg is ignored by his local parties; or they know what they are doing and are trying to decieve the electorate. I'll let you decide.

Hat-tip to regular contributor EGL Resident for this one!

Reshuffle fever and Reshuffle nonsense

Nick Clegg should stick very closely to a very boring script because everytime he utters in public he makes a prize mistake - either about women, the pension or his shopping habits. So when he came out with this line:

"I am proud to lead the best front-bench team in British politics, a team which has consistently been ahead of the curve on the big debates that matter to the British people."

...he can't of possibly thought he would get away with it. The Cult of Vince aside (a viewpoint I happen to challenge as it happens) the LibDem frontbench is utterly devoid of talent; Ed Davey verus William Hague, for example. The art of fibbing is that the fib should be believable. Spouting this nonsense ... honestly!

As for the other reshuffle story - the continued Tory speculation, I have to agree with Iain Dale when it says that Cameron must either now act or announce he won't reshuffle because the rumours could start to be damaging. For what its worth I am very relaxed about the return of Ken Clarke and if he does the right job he could prove to be a serious thorn in the governments side. Equally though I think Alan Duncan deserves to keep a serious frontbench position. Mind you, Cameron can't possible make a stupider comment than Clegg!