After Super Tuesday, John McCain told local supporters they were "a little bit closer to the day when mothers in Arizona might be able to tell their children that someday they could grow up to be president of the United States."
That wry comment has a history with relevance to McCain's situation today. Since Arizona became a state in 1912, the only other resident to win nomination for President was Barry Goldwater in 1964, who lost to Lyndon Johnson by a crushing margin.
His defeat marked both the mistrust of "extremism" at that time and the emergence of a conservative movement that culminated in Ronald Reagan's election in 1980 and is now in crisis after George W. Bush's two terms to start the new century.
As McCain moves toward becoming the second Arizonan to make a run for the White House, his candidacy reflects that history and raises questions about another turning point in Republican history.
Goldwater aroused the fears of his party that he was too conservative. McCain is facing doubts over whether he is conservative enough.
Their Arizona temperaments are part of the equation--plain-spoken, proud and independent. Goldwater was just as mistrusted by the Eastern Republican Establishment of his time as McCain now is by the Evangelical Base today.
Will his fate be different?
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Super Tuesday. Show all posts
Friday, February 08, 2008
Thursday, February 07, 2008
White Men Can't Jump?
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are bringing to the fore the most neglected demographic in more than half a century of empowerment of minorities.
In trying to explain why the surge for Obama failed to become a tidal wave on Super Tuesday, the pundits are honing in on the behavior of the largest silent segment of society--white men.
In parsing the results, Adam Nagourney of the New York Times concludes that 2008 has "cleaved the party neatly in two: the Clinton Democrats and the Obama Democrats. Age, race and gender have become the dividing lines; nothing comes close to mattering as much.
"The Obama Democratic Party is made up of younger voters (under 44), blacks, white men (to a more limited extent) and independents...The Clinton Democratic Party is the party of women, older voters, Hispanics and also some white men."
From this point of view, of all the demographic armies marching in lockstep, only white men have failed to jump into the ranks on one side or another and stay there.
According to the Times, "Mr. Obama split the white male vote nationally with Mrs. Clinton, but there was an important geographical disparity there: White men in California voted for Mr. Obama but white men in Southern states like Alabama did not. The question is what white men in Ohio will do next month, during what is shaping up as a critical showdown for Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton."
May an aging member of this indecisive species suggest the trendiness of identity politics is going too far? If there is a split in the Democratic Party, it is more attitudinal than demographic.
Those who see the world as a set of problems to be dissected, analyzed and solved are more likely to be drawn to Mrs. Clinton. Those who believe that hearts are as important as minds in shaping the future may rally around Obama.
There is much to be said for both points of view and, if voters don't let themselves get stampeded into categories, they can make their individual decisions about what matters most to them.
After all these years of Bush mindlessness and heartlessness, they can't go too far wrong.
In trying to explain why the surge for Obama failed to become a tidal wave on Super Tuesday, the pundits are honing in on the behavior of the largest silent segment of society--white men.
In parsing the results, Adam Nagourney of the New York Times concludes that 2008 has "cleaved the party neatly in two: the Clinton Democrats and the Obama Democrats. Age, race and gender have become the dividing lines; nothing comes close to mattering as much.
"The Obama Democratic Party is made up of younger voters (under 44), blacks, white men (to a more limited extent) and independents...The Clinton Democratic Party is the party of women, older voters, Hispanics and also some white men."
From this point of view, of all the demographic armies marching in lockstep, only white men have failed to jump into the ranks on one side or another and stay there.
According to the Times, "Mr. Obama split the white male vote nationally with Mrs. Clinton, but there was an important geographical disparity there: White men in California voted for Mr. Obama but white men in Southern states like Alabama did not. The question is what white men in Ohio will do next month, during what is shaping up as a critical showdown for Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton."
May an aging member of this indecisive species suggest the trendiness of identity politics is going too far? If there is a split in the Democratic Party, it is more attitudinal than demographic.
Those who see the world as a set of problems to be dissected, analyzed and solved are more likely to be drawn to Mrs. Clinton. Those who believe that hearts are as important as minds in shaping the future may rally around Obama.
There is much to be said for both points of view and, if voters don't let themselves get stampeded into categories, they can make their individual decisions about what matters most to them.
After all these years of Bush mindlessness and heartlessness, they can't go too far wrong.
Wednesday, February 06, 2008
The Messages of Super Tuesday
The results suggest that money and political muscle are not the be-all and end-all for getting to the White House.
John McCain now has a clear path to the Republican nomination, while Mike Huckabee remains to haunt his hopes for a unified Party and may very well end up as his running mate.
Barack Obama has leveled the playing field with Hillary Clinton, cutting into her lead in the delegate count to the point where the once-certain nominee is now calling for more debates to bolster her chances.
What Obama and Huckabee have in common is that a year ago they were candidates with messages who didn't have the money, the name recognition or the organization to challenge the Clintons' political juggernaut, Rudy Giuliani's 9/11 aura or Mitt Romney's wealth.
But somehow, in the face of those odds, they persuaded different segments of the electorate that they represent the best hope for change from the dismal Bush years.
Six months ago, McCain, better-known but not beloved by conservatives, had slipped off the radar in the polls. But here he is, the front runner as those with more money, celebrity and willingness to pander have gone under.
Super Tuesday doesn't justify a Pollyanna vision of Presidential politics, but it does undermine the view of cynics who claim that it's only about money and power.
John McCain now has a clear path to the Republican nomination, while Mike Huckabee remains to haunt his hopes for a unified Party and may very well end up as his running mate.
Barack Obama has leveled the playing field with Hillary Clinton, cutting into her lead in the delegate count to the point where the once-certain nominee is now calling for more debates to bolster her chances.
What Obama and Huckabee have in common is that a year ago they were candidates with messages who didn't have the money, the name recognition or the organization to challenge the Clintons' political juggernaut, Rudy Giuliani's 9/11 aura or Mitt Romney's wealth.
But somehow, in the face of those odds, they persuaded different segments of the electorate that they represent the best hope for change from the dismal Bush years.
Six months ago, McCain, better-known but not beloved by conservatives, had slipped off the radar in the polls. But here he is, the front runner as those with more money, celebrity and willingness to pander have gone under.
Super Tuesday doesn't justify a Pollyanna vision of Presidential politics, but it does undermine the view of cynics who claim that it's only about money and power.
Tuesday, February 05, 2008
Stupor Tuesday
If you haven't started the day with a headache, chances are you'll end with one. The mathematics of today's primaries would stupefy Einstein--super delegates, bonus delegates, caucuses, district splits, threshold percentages...
Last night Keith Olbermann and reporter David Shuster started out to explain it all and ended up in Abbott and Costello's Who's-on-First routine. Click on "Deconstructing delegates" and watch.
What ever happened to people going into a booth, pulling a lever and counting up the votes to see who wins?
Last night Keith Olbermann and reporter David Shuster started out to explain it all and ended up in Abbott and Costello's Who's-on-First routine. Click on "Deconstructing delegates" and watch.
What ever happened to people going into a booth, pulling a lever and counting up the votes to see who wins?
Monday, February 04, 2008
Iraq, Iraq, Iraq
Exit polls tomorrow night will undoubtedly show voters went into the booths worried about health care, home foreclosures, job security and other fallout from an impending recession.
Their concerns are understandable, but they may want to recall that a little over a year ago, in November 2006, their ballots gave control of Congress to Democrats with a mandate to stop the war in Iraq.
That did not happen and since then voters have been lulled by an Imperial President, using Gen. Petraeus as a human shield, into forgetting that American deaths there now total 3,945 at a cost to taxpayers exceeding $10 billion a month.
All the Republican candidates, except Ron Paul, are in favor of continuing to do that.
As for the Democrats, in 2002, I wrote to Sen. Hillary Clinton pleading with her not to give George W. the power to invade Iraq and warning that, if she did, I would never vote for her for any office. Tomorrow I will keep that promise.
Their concerns are understandable, but they may want to recall that a little over a year ago, in November 2006, their ballots gave control of Congress to Democrats with a mandate to stop the war in Iraq.
That did not happen and since then voters have been lulled by an Imperial President, using Gen. Petraeus as a human shield, into forgetting that American deaths there now total 3,945 at a cost to taxpayers exceeding $10 billion a month.
All the Republican candidates, except Ron Paul, are in favor of continuing to do that.
As for the Democrats, in 2002, I wrote to Sen. Hillary Clinton pleading with her not to give George W. the power to invade Iraq and warning that, if she did, I would never vote for her for any office. Tomorrow I will keep that promise.
Sunday, February 03, 2008
The Kennedying of Obama: Cautionary Note
In the desperation to be rid of Bush, this has become a year of imagery shorthand. While any Republican with a pulse claims to be another Reagan, Barack Obama is seen as a new JFK.
There are parallels. As Nixon did in 1960, Hillary Clinton is invoking her experience during the eight-year tenure of a popular president. But in both cases, the actual occupant of the Oval Office undermined the chances of his would-be successor.
Eisenhower did nothing as blatant as Bill Clinton's campaign antics but, in trying to help his Vice-President in 1960, he asserted that Nixon played a major role during his terms in office. Asked at a press conference about any piece of advice he had heeded, Eisenhower answered, "If you give me a week, I might think of one."
In that campaign, as Frank Rich reminds us today, neither could Kennedy point to any significant achievement in his brief Senate career, but what he offered was change in a time when Americans were ready but not as desperate as they are now for new, younger leadership.
If anything, in his style and emphasis on rational exploration of every issue, Obama is less like Kennedy than Adlai Stevenson, another figure from Illinois, who lost twice to Eisenhower.
Stevenson, who once defined a politician as "someone who approaches every question with an open mouth," was reluctant, as Obama is now, to offer bumper-sticker solutions on every issue. But Stevenson was up against an American legend, and Obama is offering a poetic vision much like Kennedy's as an alternative to the Clintons' mixed legacy.
As he prepares to collide with them on Super Tuesday, Obama might want to recall something else Stevenson said: “The hardest thing about any campaign is how to win without proving you’re unworthy of winning.”
There are parallels. As Nixon did in 1960, Hillary Clinton is invoking her experience during the eight-year tenure of a popular president. But in both cases, the actual occupant of the Oval Office undermined the chances of his would-be successor.
Eisenhower did nothing as blatant as Bill Clinton's campaign antics but, in trying to help his Vice-President in 1960, he asserted that Nixon played a major role during his terms in office. Asked at a press conference about any piece of advice he had heeded, Eisenhower answered, "If you give me a week, I might think of one."
In that campaign, as Frank Rich reminds us today, neither could Kennedy point to any significant achievement in his brief Senate career, but what he offered was change in a time when Americans were ready but not as desperate as they are now for new, younger leadership.
If anything, in his style and emphasis on rational exploration of every issue, Obama is less like Kennedy than Adlai Stevenson, another figure from Illinois, who lost twice to Eisenhower.
Stevenson, who once defined a politician as "someone who approaches every question with an open mouth," was reluctant, as Obama is now, to offer bumper-sticker solutions on every issue. But Stevenson was up against an American legend, and Obama is offering a poetic vision much like Kennedy's as an alternative to the Clintons' mixed legacy.
As he prepares to collide with them on Super Tuesday, Obama might want to recall something else Stevenson said: “The hardest thing about any campaign is how to win without proving you’re unworthy of winning.”
Friday, February 01, 2008
The Near-Defection of John McCain
George W. Bush and Karl Rove apparently accomplished something the North Vietnamese in five years of captivity could not do--get John McCain to consider switching loyalties.
The story surfaces, just before Super Tuesday, in The Hill today, of McCain's temptation to leave the Republican Party after being savagely smeared by the Bush campaign in the 2000 primaries.
In persuasive detail, it reports the approach of a McCain aide to Congressional Democratic leaders about the possibility of the Arizona Senator emulating Vermont's Jim Jeffords in becoming an Independent and aligning himself with their party.
McCain's disaffection in 2001 was no secret. Fellow Republican Trent Lott criticized him publicly then for keeping "unusual company."
But why does the story surface now? The cui bono is obvious as Mitt Romney tries to persuade Republicans that he is the party's legitimate standard bearer, and Ann Coulter reflects the weird vote by announcing she would back Hillary Clinton before McCain.
There must be déjà vu in all this for the Republican front runner. The rabid Right hated him back then, still does and will stop at nothing to derail him. But Romney, Coulter, Rush Limbaugh et al are no Karl Roves in the art of demonizing those they oppose.
When McCain gets the nomination, rational Republicans and Independents may be drawn to him by what these attacks reveal about his character.
The story surfaces, just before Super Tuesday, in The Hill today, of McCain's temptation to leave the Republican Party after being savagely smeared by the Bush campaign in the 2000 primaries.
In persuasive detail, it reports the approach of a McCain aide to Congressional Democratic leaders about the possibility of the Arizona Senator emulating Vermont's Jim Jeffords in becoming an Independent and aligning himself with their party.
McCain's disaffection in 2001 was no secret. Fellow Republican Trent Lott criticized him publicly then for keeping "unusual company."
But why does the story surface now? The cui bono is obvious as Mitt Romney tries to persuade Republicans that he is the party's legitimate standard bearer, and Ann Coulter reflects the weird vote by announcing she would back Hillary Clinton before McCain.
There must be déjà vu in all this for the Republican front runner. The rabid Right hated him back then, still does and will stop at nothing to derail him. But Romney, Coulter, Rush Limbaugh et al are no Karl Roves in the art of demonizing those they oppose.
When McCain gets the nomination, rational Republicans and Independents may be drawn to him by what these attacks reveal about his character.
Hillary's Hallmark Card to Voters
On the eve on Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign will be airing the longest election commercial ever--an hour-long segment of a "town meeting" on the Hallmark cable channel that will continue for another 30 minutes online.
With so many voters going to the polls on February 5th, it was inevitable that candidates would have to use national advertising to reach them. No word of what Obama, McCain and big-bucks Romney will do, but the long-form Clinton approach is much more promising than sound-bite attack ads.
With so many voters going to the polls on February 5th, it was inevitable that candidates would have to use national advertising to reach them. No word of what Obama, McCain and big-bucks Romney will do, but the long-form Clinton approach is much more promising than sound-bite attack ads.
Thursday, January 31, 2008
Rupert Murdoch's Funny Valentine
Who knew that the Fox News media mogul had such a sense of humor? His New York Post's editorial endorsing Barack Obama should become a comedy classic.
"For all his charisma and his eloquence," the Post writes, "the rookie senator sorely lacks seasoning: Regarding national security, his worldview is beyond naïve...
"His all-things-to-all-people approach to complicated domestic issues also arouses scant confidence. 'Change!' for the sake of change does not a credible campaign platform make."
But what sterling qualities does Obama possess that would make him a good choice for president on Super Tuesday? "(H)e is not Team Clinton."
Not being a Clinton is a supreme virtue: "His opponent, and her husband, stand for déjà vu all over again--a return to the opportunistic, scandal-scarred, morally muddled years of the almost infinitely self-indulgent Clinton co-presidency...
"A return to Sen. Clinton's cattle-futures deal, Travelgate, Whitewater, Filegate, the Lincoln Bedroom Fire Sale, Pardongate--and the inevitable replay of the Monica Mess?
"No, thank you."
From this guarded assessment of the Clinton years emerges a ringing endorsement: "At least Obama has the ability to inspire. Again, we don't agree much with Obama on substantive issues. But many Democrats will."
With friends like Murdoch, a candidate could go far. Did Bill O'Reilly get the memo?
"For all his charisma and his eloquence," the Post writes, "the rookie senator sorely lacks seasoning: Regarding national security, his worldview is beyond naïve...
"His all-things-to-all-people approach to complicated domestic issues also arouses scant confidence. 'Change!' for the sake of change does not a credible campaign platform make."
But what sterling qualities does Obama possess that would make him a good choice for president on Super Tuesday? "(H)e is not Team Clinton."
Not being a Clinton is a supreme virtue: "His opponent, and her husband, stand for déjà vu all over again--a return to the opportunistic, scandal-scarred, morally muddled years of the almost infinitely self-indulgent Clinton co-presidency...
"A return to Sen. Clinton's cattle-futures deal, Travelgate, Whitewater, Filegate, the Lincoln Bedroom Fire Sale, Pardongate--and the inevitable replay of the Monica Mess?
"No, thank you."
From this guarded assessment of the Clinton years emerges a ringing endorsement: "At least Obama has the ability to inspire. Again, we don't agree much with Obama on substantive issues. But many Democrats will."
With friends like Murdoch, a candidate could go far. Did Bill O'Reilly get the memo?
Sunday, January 27, 2008
Barack and the Beanstalk
The fable of the giant-killer was alive and well in South Carolina--a young man climbing into the castle of a behemoth called Blunderbore and his wife and stealing their prizes.
Barack Obama summed it up in his victory speech: "After four great contests in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates and the most diverse coalition of Americans that we've seen in a long, long time."
The Clintons are still huge as they lumber toward Super Tuesday, but Obama has lost narrowly in New Hampshire and Nevada, won handily in Iowa and now by a country mile in South Carolina. His beanstalk is looking sturdier with each contest.
After all the blather about race and gender, it was Bill Clinton shadowing the landscape that made the difference between what might have been a close contest and a runaway. The voters were not charmed by his "Fee! Fie! Foe! Fum! I smell the blood of a journeyman!"
In the exit polls, South Carolina voters clearly said they were turned off by the sight and, from here on, to push the fairy tale to its limit, the Clintons will have to find another goose to lay their golden eggs.
Barack Obama summed it up in his victory speech: "After four great contests in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates and the most diverse coalition of Americans that we've seen in a long, long time."
The Clintons are still huge as they lumber toward Super Tuesday, but Obama has lost narrowly in New Hampshire and Nevada, won handily in Iowa and now by a country mile in South Carolina. His beanstalk is looking sturdier with each contest.
After all the blather about race and gender, it was Bill Clinton shadowing the landscape that made the difference between what might have been a close contest and a runaway. The voters were not charmed by his "Fee! Fie! Foe! Fum! I smell the blood of a journeyman!"
In the exit polls, South Carolina voters clearly said they were turned off by the sight and, from here on, to push the fairy tale to its limit, the Clintons will have to find another goose to lay their golden eggs.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Up With Huckabee
Since Iowa, the vote count for the former Arkansas governor has been earthbound, but it hasn't lowered his expectations.
"We really need to take America up and not down," Mike Huckabee said when he moved into the top tier of candidates and now, as he faces a moment of truth in South Carolina that could foreshadow his fate on Super Tuesday, he is still looking in that direction.
Before his third-place finish in Michigan yesterday, he told supporters that "what we need to do is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards."
It's no surprise that Huckabee is keeping his spirits up but, as his political fortunes fluctuate, his weight seems to be heading in the same direction.
Famous for losing over a hundred pounds and writing a book about it, in recent appearances, Huckabee has been looking more and more like Al Gore.
Last month, he admitted to gaining a dozen pounds on the campaign trail but seemed optimistic that he could trim down for the Boston marathon in April.
Between now and then, his ecclesiastical and dietary resolve will be tested by the political marathon.
"We really need to take America up and not down," Mike Huckabee said when he moved into the top tier of candidates and now, as he faces a moment of truth in South Carolina that could foreshadow his fate on Super Tuesday, he is still looking in that direction.
Before his third-place finish in Michigan yesterday, he told supporters that "what we need to do is to amend the Constitution so it's in God's standards rather than try to change God's standards."
It's no surprise that Huckabee is keeping his spirits up but, as his political fortunes fluctuate, his weight seems to be heading in the same direction.
Famous for losing over a hundred pounds and writing a book about it, in recent appearances, Huckabee has been looking more and more like Al Gore.
Last month, he admitted to gaining a dozen pounds on the campaign trail but seemed optimistic that he could trim down for the Boston marathon in April.
Between now and then, his ecclesiastical and dietary resolve will be tested by the political marathon.
Thursday, December 27, 2007
A Valentine Proposal From Bloomberg?
In the glory days of Time Inc, an editor who didn't get a promotion he had been expecting sent Henry Luce a wire: "Why did you keep me standing on my tippy toes if you didn't intend to kiss me?"
Voters may be feeling that way about Mike Bloomberg. After a year of flirting with us, and as the possible nominees in both parties look less desirable all the time, will Gotham's Prince Charming ever make his move?
Now there are hints he could pop the question, or not, right after Super Tuesday, February 5th, when more than 20 primaries provide some idea of who the Democratic and Republican candidates will be. "If the parties nominate polarizing candidates," a leading pollster says, "then there's plenty of room"
Meanwhile, Mayor Mike has been busy traveling to China to talk about entrepreneurship and Bali to discuss climate change while observing that the next president should “go around the world, make sure that people understand that we are willing to listen--and actually listen.”
While polishing his foreign-policy credentials, Bloomberg has been working hard to remind potential voters of his environmental and other quality-of-life improvements in New York.
Along with all this, the non-candidate has been reaching out to consultants and ad people from his past campaigns for a possible run while a "Unite for Mike" web site keeps supporters abreast of all the Bloomberg buzz, including a weekend dinner with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, "amid hints that he has been trying to find a way for the Austrian-born governor to run as his vice president."
No Ross Perot, if he decides to go for it, Bloomberg will spend a billion dollars only if he sees a way to win enough electoral votes to take the prize, and enthusiasts are working on a map to show he can do it.
But like Miss Adelaide in "Guys and Dolls," we have heard these songs before. Will our bachelor billionaire ever stop playing Nathan Detroit, get down on a knee and ask us to be his?
Valentine's Day might be a good time.
Voters may be feeling that way about Mike Bloomberg. After a year of flirting with us, and as the possible nominees in both parties look less desirable all the time, will Gotham's Prince Charming ever make his move?
Now there are hints he could pop the question, or not, right after Super Tuesday, February 5th, when more than 20 primaries provide some idea of who the Democratic and Republican candidates will be. "If the parties nominate polarizing candidates," a leading pollster says, "then there's plenty of room"
Meanwhile, Mayor Mike has been busy traveling to China to talk about entrepreneurship and Bali to discuss climate change while observing that the next president should “go around the world, make sure that people understand that we are willing to listen--and actually listen.”
While polishing his foreign-policy credentials, Bloomberg has been working hard to remind potential voters of his environmental and other quality-of-life improvements in New York.
Along with all this, the non-candidate has been reaching out to consultants and ad people from his past campaigns for a possible run while a "Unite for Mike" web site keeps supporters abreast of all the Bloomberg buzz, including a weekend dinner with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger of California, "amid hints that he has been trying to find a way for the Austrian-born governor to run as his vice president."
No Ross Perot, if he decides to go for it, Bloomberg will spend a billion dollars only if he sees a way to win enough electoral votes to take the prize, and enthusiasts are working on a map to show he can do it.
But like Miss Adelaide in "Guys and Dolls," we have heard these songs before. Will our bachelor billionaire ever stop playing Nathan Detroit, get down on a knee and ask us to be his?
Valentine's Day might be a good time.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Make-or-Break for Obama
Tonight's Democratic debate could be critical to his chances of catching up, but Barack Obama will be caught between a rock, Hillary Clinton, and a hard place, a stageful of also-rans competing for the sound bite or riposte to lift them into the top tier--not the best milieu for a candidate who rose to recognition through candor, personal charm and a thoughtful approach to public policy.
Last weekend, the New York Times led off a report on an interview: "Senator Barack Obama said he would start confronting Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton more directly and forcefully." Easier said than done, and time is getting short.
After almost a year of foreplay, the nominations will be consummated three months from now on Super Tuesday, February 5th, when twenty states with over half the convention delegates hold primary elections. In the month before, Iowa and New Hampshire will provide some clues.
Against a backdrop of discouraging polls, Obama has been under great pressure from supporters to take the offensive, but is it in his nature or, at this point, even in his interest?
Criticizing Clinton so far has been like throwing rocks at a bulldozer, as John Edwards' efforts in the past weeks have shown. If Obama goes on the attack, it can't be over complex issues such as health care, Social Security or tax reform and it's too late to keep talking about his 2002 opposition to the war in Iraq.
Obama is left with only one opening--Iran. Clinton's vote for the Kyle-Lieberman resolution leaves her vulnerable to charges of being Bush-lite on dealing with the challenges of the Middle East, and Obama can point to a new Zogby poll showing that a majority of Americans are ready to confront Iran and claim that Clinton has contributed once again to public support for an unnecessary war.
But that will be a hard sell, and if Republican reactions are any guide, Obama's chances are slim. Even Dick Cheney is now making little jokes about his cousin Barack, something he would never do if Obama's chances of getting the nomination looked better.
Last weekend, the New York Times led off a report on an interview: "Senator Barack Obama said he would start confronting Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton more directly and forcefully." Easier said than done, and time is getting short.
After almost a year of foreplay, the nominations will be consummated three months from now on Super Tuesday, February 5th, when twenty states with over half the convention delegates hold primary elections. In the month before, Iowa and New Hampshire will provide some clues.
Against a backdrop of discouraging polls, Obama has been under great pressure from supporters to take the offensive, but is it in his nature or, at this point, even in his interest?
Criticizing Clinton so far has been like throwing rocks at a bulldozer, as John Edwards' efforts in the past weeks have shown. If Obama goes on the attack, it can't be over complex issues such as health care, Social Security or tax reform and it's too late to keep talking about his 2002 opposition to the war in Iraq.
Obama is left with only one opening--Iran. Clinton's vote for the Kyle-Lieberman resolution leaves her vulnerable to charges of being Bush-lite on dealing with the challenges of the Middle East, and Obama can point to a new Zogby poll showing that a majority of Americans are ready to confront Iran and claim that Clinton has contributed once again to public support for an unnecessary war.
But that will be a hard sell, and if Republican reactions are any guide, Obama's chances are slim. Even Dick Cheney is now making little jokes about his cousin Barack, something he would never do if Obama's chances of getting the nomination looked better.
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