Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

Defining "disarmament" and defining "regime change" can be a bit tricky. But here we will take "disarmament" to mean the clear dismantling of nuclear weapons and weapons related facilities, or the absence of the full suite of facilities required to produce nuclear weapons. By "regime change" one might anything from a fundamental transformation of the government to a change in the top leader of the country, due to:

1. losing a war [Iraq]
2. end of Apartheid [South Africa]
3. transition to military rule [Algeria]
4. transition from military rule [Argentina, Brazil]
5. break up of the Soviet Union [Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine]
6. assasination [South Korea]
7. generational succession [Taiwan, Libya]

The conjecture of this analysis is that regime change is a precondition for disarmament, and that states that have not experienced regime change have not implemented disarmament.

This observation suggests that it is unlikely that North Korea and Iran will abandon their nuclear weapons ambitions in the absence of regime change of some sort.

Disarmament

NO

Yes

Regime
Change

NO

YES