L-21 Mission/USA-193

Imaging Technology Demonstration Spacecraft

Reassessment Retrospective

NRO - L-21 Mission/USA-193

Spacecraft

By © Charles P. Vick 2008 All Rights Reserved

05-11/21-08

Disclaimer

The opinions and evaluations stated here in are only the author’s and cannot be construed to reflect those of any Government agency, company, institute or association. It is based on public information, circumstantial evidence, Vendor documents, informed speculation, and declassified U.S. intelligence community documents, official US government documents and histories, oral histories, interviews and reverse engineering analysis. As with all data regarding the intelligence space programs of the US intelligence community, this analysis is subject to revision--and represents a work in progress.

USA-193

A Delta II lifted off from Vandenberg Air Force Base on 14 December 2006 , carrying the NROL-21, USA-193 satellite. The NROL-21 spacecraft failed within hours of its launch. By January 2008 the satellite was expected to reenter the Earth's atmosphere in late February or March. Although some of the spacecraft would burn up on re-enty, the uncontrolled reentry could result in some heavier pieces of debris reaching the Earth's surface. The odds were about three in four that the debris would hit an ocean area. Although the safety hazard of the impacting debris was small, there was some concern that secrets of the spacecraft could be compromised if the debris were recovered by a hostile intelligence agency.

NROL-21 USA-193

A Delta II lifted off from Space Launch Complex 2 at Vandenberg Air Force Base Thursday, 14 December 2006, carrying the NROL-21 USA-193 [NORAD ID: 29651, International Code: 2006-057A] satellite. Liftoff occurred at 1 p.m. PST , right at the opening of the launch window. This mission was somewhat unique for the Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC), the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO), and Aerospace in that it had some significant differences from the usual Delta II/GPS launches. This was the first Vandenberg Air Force Base Delta II launch for the Department of Defense since 1999, and the first-ever launch of an NRO payload aboard a Delta II from the West Coast. The vehicle configuration shared the same solid rocket motors, first stage and second stage, but did not include the third stage used for Global Positioning System ( GPS) missions. In addition, the payload fairing was a composite 10-foot diameter configuration as opposed to the 9 ½-foot metallic fairing for the GPS.

Although the vehicle and mission were unique, the launch verification process applied by Aerospace was not altered. The verification tasks and depth of effort were equivalent to the corporation’s standard process applied to GPS missions. However, unlike the standard SMC launch verification process, the Independent Readiness Review Team function was performed by the NRO Mission Assurance Team. The Aerospace Launch Directorate-led Mission Assurance Team provided an independent risk assessment to Col. James Norman, NRO mission director. The former Boeing contractor team and senior members of the former Lockheed Martin launch team, now the United Launch Alliance (ULA), provided unified support to this inaugural launch for ULA.

NROL-21 was launched into a 351 x 367 km orbit with a period of 92.9 minutes and an inclination of 58.5 degrees. The mass of the spacecraft is unclear. From Vandenberg AFB, a Delta II 7290 could place about 3,300 kg (7,300 lbs) into a 90 degree polar orbit at the initial altitude of NROL-21. NROL-21 launched at such a polar azimuth, then dogleged to 58.5 degree orbit, suggesting a payload of about 3300 kg / 7300 lbs. The payload was believed to be the first of the Future Imagery Architecture [FIA] imaging radar spacecraft, designed to be the replacement for the operational Lacrosse/Vega/Onyx spacecraft that are believed to carry two elongated radar imaging dishes.

Soon after launch John Locker in the UK reported that the NROL-21 satellite failed within hours of its launch and the solar arrays never deployed. On 19 January 2007 it was reported that US officials were unable to communicate with the reconnaissance satellite. "Efforts are continuing to reestablish communication with the classified satellite, which cost hundreds of millions of dollars," a defense official told the media. "They have not yet declared it a total loss."

As of 22 January 2008 Ted Molczan reported that NROL-21 had decayed to 271 x 282 km and was decaying at a rate of about 0.7 km per day, which would accelerate as it continued to spiral in.

On 26 January 2008 the Associated Press reported that the satellite would hit the Earth in late February or March, according to US government officials. "The satellite, which no longer can be controlled, could contain hazardous materials, and it is unknown where on the planet it might come down," they said. "Appropriate government agencies are monitoring the situation," said Gordon Johndroe, a spokesman for the National Security Council. "Numerous satellites over the years have come out of orbit and fallen harmlessly. We are looking at potential options to mitigate any possible damage this satellite may cause."

Alternative Spacecraft Mission Suggested for this USA-193 Spacecraft?

Based on US space industry and DOD feed back over the last few months the USA-193 spacecraft was not built by Orbital Sciences Corporation or Boeing and may not be directly related to FIA program. What ever this USA-193 mission is or was it is certainly some kind of earth observation satellite with some kind of imaging capability that is strictly managed by NRO and built by Lockheed Martin but open source evidence analysis wise seems to have indicate otherwise. It is suggested that it is presumably a test R & D spacecraft to do further development of some kind of new earth observation sensor not necessarily optical of some variety that produces images that is apparently not a FIA, RADSAT radar based system in spite of being placed in the common “Frozen Orbit” for such spacecraft. That is an entirely new separate R & D imaging spacecraft as a part of a separate NRO program development. Whether this is an on going or one off attempted program remains undefined. Testing of the associated sensors is now expected to be flight tested through adjunct payload additions in the coming years instead of building a newer version of the same spacecraft. Presumable this was an out growth the lost FIA contract as a cancellation prize for Lockheed Martin.

Quoting Allen Thomson “ With the warning that this is purest speculation, I'd say that if 1) USA-193 *isn't* a conventional imaging satellite but 2) *is* an imaging satellite, then an experimental bi-static SAR receiver is one of the things it might plausibly be. Another possibility might be some sort of MASINT (CPV – IR) multispectral imager (CPV-similar to the SBIRS sensors). I don't think it could be a transmitter for a bistatic system just based on its size. So the transmitter (aka "illuminator") would have to be someplace else. Some of the higher-power GEO comsats are in the class that might be suitable if they were dedicated to the illumination task; Lacrosse might also be a possibility, though you'd want to check the orbits to see how frequent periods of mutual visibility of a ground target are. This is all highly, highly speculative.” IE the USA spacecraft may have had a bi-static radar receiving capability test bed as well as it experimental imagery system but this is now deemed less likely. This could have allowed combining the radar data with the multi-spectral IR imagery data experiment.

Although the satellite was said to be carry about 1,000 kg of hydrazine mono-propellant the total mass of the spacecraft is no more than in the 5,000 pound range because of the booster orbital performance characteristics to that orbit from the West coast. The USA-193 spacecraft is quite small because of the Delta-2 launch shroud encapsulation volume that limited its dimensions to less that that of a small SUV not “school bus size” as sensationalized in the public press. The amount of debris created from the satellites intercept destruction would be minimal and what is left over will decay in a few weeks or months time based on the understanding of the end results of the very low earth orbit intercept. They were have multiple chances to take it down even with the software modifications required what has had to be in the planning stage for many months if not a year or more.

More Recent Information Revelations

The out of control but stable based on ground observations USA 193 satellite was hit at 10.26 pm 03:26 GMT on February 21, 2008 by the US Navy Aegis ship USS Lake Erie missile that it launched over Pacific Ocean that incorporated a Kinetic energy kill vehicle carrying no explosives.

Suggestion of the satellite fuel burning do not hold substance in the vacuum of space especially since the 1,000 lbs hydrazine Mono (single) propellant contained in the 40 inch sphere with 20 inch radius was apparently side swiped. The propellant as it turns out was probably to a large extent still in a liquid state acting as a heat sink “not frozen” and burst forth like a slice burst water balloon pouring forth streams of liquid to bobbles that decomposed and vaporizing into a gas in the vacuum of space. In most cases such tanks in a satellite in spite of thermal control systems failures become a heat sink for the satellite and are certainly covered with insulation to maintain a constant relative temperature. There was no second oxidizer propellant for a fire present and there were no explosives in the intercept kill vehicle. That added oxidizer may have come from the destruction of the kinetic energy warhead intercept payload nearly spent propellant load under the best of conditions.

Based on study of the initial imagery of the intercept from that initially shown to the press at DoD would suggest that the satellite was quite stable and not flashing. The lack of flashing along with other world wide observations of the satellite for over a year brings into serious questions suggestion that the satellite was rotating wildly out of control. From the on set ground based observers like John Locker in the UK reported never seeing the satellite spinning as he imaged it repeatedly. It was always stable based on ground observation imagery to its end.

Again based on study of the initial imagery of the intercept from that initially shown to the press at DoD would suggest that the satellite was side swiped on one side off center wiping out the top and bottom and one side of the satellite and rupturing the Hydrazine tank. This left three sides of the heavily damaged satellite that were essentially splayed open flat with one of those three sides in later released video also separating. It would also appear the solar arrays which never deployed at orbital insertion were partially sprung loose but shattered from the kinetic energy impact. There was no indication of any kind of radar dish being present or thrown out strongly suggesting that this was indeed an imaging type payload. Subsequent released video’s available do not seem to show as much detail but certainly indicate the separation and shattering of elements of the satellite.

Spacecraft Mission

This very sophisticated Lockheed Martin prime contractor satellite seems to have lost power very early on immediately after separation from the launch vehicle. From the available data now collected it would appear to be a trade off spacecraft with a sophisticated experimental multi-spectral IR imagery camera remote sensing indicated capability but bi-static radar receiver system capability is now brought into question. The spacecraft as explained here in was never placed into the standard RECSAT, KH series sun-synchronous orbit thus when it was observed in the “Frozen Orbit” characteristic of radar imaging spacecraft it was thought to have been the first experimental flight test of the new FIA Program E-305 spacecraft. It is now understood that this spacecraft was only about half the size of that actual spacecraft still in the advanced development stage. This however does not preclude the satellite also having a bistatic radar receiver system capability that would allow the IR imagery to be combined with the radar imagery though that now seems less likely.

Who’s Satellite?

Boeing only provided the launch vehicle for the spacecraft launch and according to the brass had nothing to do with the Lockheed Martin experimental satellite also though the satellite ultimately used an Orbital like satellite framing that actually frame structure came from Lockheed Martin so Orbital Science Corporation had nothing to do with this Lockheed Martin satellite. The satellites program had been restructured some 15 months before February 2007 under NRO management.

Satellite Size & Description

A mere “Useless Ice Cub” approximately 74’’ x 54’’ x 75 “+ 46” + = 121 “or so without solar arrays packed tightly to two opposite sides. Adding the solar arrays makes it about 74” x 74” x 121” at less than 3,300 kg/7,300 lbs is really small indeed by any standard compared to any compact SUV. Smaller than or about the size of a SUV at a probable 7,000 lbs or about 3,175 kg total compact mass. Looking at the standard legacy spacecraft shows two opposite sides with solar arrays shell skin with the other two sides covered by black thermal blanket material where the solar arrays are deployed from. Then the spacecraft has its bottom for the down link dishes, antennas, horns and the top with the propulsion area. While the solar arrays and antenna come loose during reentry they will tear at the structural fabric of the spacecraft as they separate. That leaves very little concentrated mass to survive to impact but that is clearly what the worry was that the high pressure heavy propellant tank have so often survived which will be spewing highly toxic Hydrazine propellant from the ruptured lines and tank. The velocity should be considerable less at impact remembering other spacecraft impact and the rate of mass and energy loss. That is still a hazard to humanity 58.5 degrees north or south of the equator.

What Went Wrong

The experimental test spacecraft had an apparent catastrophic failure due to software not previously observed errors with the solar array not deployed soon after orbital insertion. The rectangular bus box does appear to be covered with solar arrays and the spacecraft does appear to be darker than would be expected except for the down link dish rack and un-deployed hardware. At least they did not deploy properly thus the reports of the general power failure. That is at least my present impression based on the interpretation of the low resolution spacecraft imagery. To a degree I am speculating here based on low resolution ground based imagery and what we can gather from its appearance.

Recent Reuters, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, Aviation Week & Space Technology and New York Times, articles have revealed considerably more details of what caused the USA-193 experimental satellite total loss failure seven seconds after being turned on after a successful orbital insertion. It was due to its “flight Safe-hold software” and associated “subsystems components processors” that were automatically triggered by an on board anomaly or anomalies. The spacecraft was left with an inability to communicate with ground controllers. Subsequent attempts to communications with the spacecraft by ground controllers repeatedly failed to successfully reboot its on-board computer. This has created a potential serious impact on the systems technology assessment along with its follow on economic budget impact to the US military SBIRS and Radar satellite programs. The common programming and associated subsystems is apparently designed to be used on many spacecraft and the full extent of that impact on other spacecraft has not bend defined at this writing. Apparently Lockheed Martin was the lead contractor for this software and its subsystems which are now undergoing examination for revisions to remedy the issues identified for both the RADSAT and SBIRS programs. This may also force redesign of some subsystems in addition to the software revisions. It was described by the Under Secretary of the Air Force space programs as a “useless ice cub.” (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7)

 

First Flight Test of the new Experimental Imaging Spacecraft?

The spacecraft that apparently suffered a major failure with the launch of USA-193/NROL-21 launched December 14, 2006 . It would appear that the experimental USA-193 satellite the first systems to appear in flight testing. According to Ted Molczan it first appeared on the launch manifest of VAFB as early as May 2004 when the RADSAT was still under Boeings control as it apparently still is.

The USA-193/NRO, L-21 launched December 14, 2006 payload required a much more extensive search of the industry literature to understand its probable origins and design heritage. The one issue that is most eye opening is that it is not based on the Boeing, Hughes divisions 601 satellite body series now out of production. It is probably based on a Lockheed satellite produced frame that bears an uncanny resemblance to that which has been used by Orbital Sciences Corporation for smaller communications satellite that apparently adapted to their experimental spacecraft design. In spite of the circumstantial evidence Orbital Science Corporation apparently had nothing to do with the RADSAT spacecraft design. Having been flown on a Boeing McDonnell Douglas Delta-II, 7920-2 under a 108 inch inside diameter shroud indicates it was a very tight fit spacecraft. The compactness of the cube shaped spacecraft body with its solar arrays folded against two opposite sides of the spacecraft has actually surprised this analyst. It is apparent that it was in fact a test satellite for NRO apparently not to be repeated since the Delta-II is out of production. At this point the actual FIA, RADSAT operational remote sensing spacecraft is expected to be flown under one of the smaller Delta-4 heavy s hrouds.

Lockheed Martin was the lead coordination design organization for the USa-193 experimental satellite while Lockheed Martin or TRW provided the solar arrays.. The design is in part based on the analysis of the imagery of the USA-193 spacecraft payload as seen in low resolution ground based imagery of the failed satellite. Certainly USA-193 settled into the “frozen” orbit of all the remote sensing radar satellites of the various configurations flown according to Ted Molczan . It did not settle into a sun-synchronous orbit like the RECSAT KH series.

Ted Molczan further stated, Fri 10/12/2007 10:49 PM “I am confident that its mission involved some sort of remote sensing of the Earth, because it is in what is known as a frozen orbit. A frozen orbit is one in which the argument of perigee and eccentricity remain nearly constant, resulting in a nearly constant altitude V’s. latitude, which is advantageous for analysis of Earth observation data.

Here is a partial of list of satellites that have employed frozen orbits:

Lacrosse SAR

GEOS-3 radar altimeter

Seasat 1 SAR, radar altimeter

GEOSAT radar altimeter

Spot Earth resources imaging

UARS various Earth sensors

JERS 1 SAR

Topex/Poeidon radar altimeter

ERS SAR, radar altimeter

RadarSat SAR

GEOSAT FO radar altimeter

Landsat 7 Earth resources imaging

Terra spectroradiometers, radiometer

EO-1 Earth resources imaging

Jason 1 radar altimeter

Envisat SAR, radar altimeter, radiometers

Aqua radiometers, microwave sounder

Icesat altimeter, radiometer

ALOS SAR, radiometer

As you can see, all are remote sensing at one or more wavelength, some imaging, some not.

It is highly unlikely for a frozen orbit to occur by chance, so I believe USA 193 must be Earth observation…...”

“On Jan 22, (2008) I posted updated orbital elements from our tracking to SeeSat-L. I included an estimate that it will decay from orbit in late March:

http://satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2008/0178.html

  USA 193 5.0 2.5 0.0 4.3 v 1 29651U 06057A 08022.26928906 .00106843 00000-0 21608-3 0 00 2 29651 58.4898 160.3690 0008009 84.4119 275.7892 15.98955224 06 Arc 2008 Jan 20.22 - 22.28, WRMS residuals = 0.016 deg   Using Alan Pickup's Satevo program, I estimate 06057A will decay about 2008 Mar 24, +/- 2 weeks.  

Due to the vagaries of atmospheric drag, the precise date of decay remains uncertain. NROL-21 was launched on a Delta 2 rocket into a 351 x 367 km orbit, inclined at 58.5 deg. As of our most recent observations, on Jan 22, it had decayed to 271 X 282 km. It is decaying at the rate of about 0.7 km per day, which will accelerate as it continues to spiral in. From VAFB, a Delta 2, 7290 could place about 3300 kg (= 7300 lbs) into a 90 deg orbit, at the initial altitude of USA 193. USA 193 went to a 58.5 deg orbit, but due to some sort of range constraint, had to launch into a polar azimuth, then dogleg to the correct azimuth, which probably somewhat reduced the available payload. I cannot guess the penalty, but certainly the maximum payload was well under 3300 kg / 7300 lbs.”

Ted Molczan

References:

1. Andrea Shalal-Esa, Lockheed, Boeing built failing spy satellite, sources say, Reuters, January 29, 2007 , p. 1 & 2. [ January 11, 2007 first reported by Reuters]

2. Andrea Shalal-Esa, Exclusive – U. S. NRO spy satellite may be total loss- sources March 7, 2007 , p. 1 & 2.

3. Andrea Shalal-Esa , U. S. spy satellite declared loss, to drop from orbit, Reuters, Aug. 3, 2007 , P. 1 & 2.

4. Amy Butler, Classified Satellite Failure Led To Latest SBIRS Delay, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, October 5, 2007, p. 1.

5. More Sbirs Trouble, (Edited by Dave Bond), Aviation Week & Space Technology October 8, 2007, Vol. 167, No. 14, October 8, 2007 p. 27.

6. Sbirs Slip, (Edited by Frank Morring. Jr.), Aviation Week & Space Technology, Vol. 167, No. 19, November 12, 2007 , P. 6.

7. Philip Taubman, In Death of Spy Satellite Program, Lofty Plans and Unrealistic Bids, The New York Times, November 11, 2007 , p. 1, 20, & 21.

8. http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/fia.htm , Future Imagery Architecture [FIA]

9. Colin Clark, Failed Satellite Combined Optical, Radar-Like Imaging Capability, Space News, February 5, 2008

10. David A. Fulghum and Amy Butler , In the Cross Haires, Aviation Week & Space Technology, February 18, 2008 , pp. 38-39.

11. DoD NewsBriefing with Gen. Cartwright from the Pentagon Feb. 21, 2008

12. http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_generic.jsp?channel=aerospaceda

ily&id=news/ASAT032408.xml , David A Fulghum, Satellite Shootdown Surprised Planners, Aerospace Daily & Defense Report, March 24, 2008