Building for the Future: China's Progress in Space Technology during the Tenth 5-Year Plan and the U.S. Response

Authored by Mr. Kevin Pollpeter.

March 2008

73 Pages

Brief Synopsis

Despite the apparent novelty of the subject, defense against ballistic missiles has been a persistent topic in transatlantic relations for over half a century. In particular, The Chinese government is using space power to increase its influence at home and abroad and hopes to leverage the political, economic, and military benefits of space to become a great power. The ambivalent nature of the U.S.-China relationship, however, assures that over the long term China's rise as a space power will present challenges to the United States. Militarily, China's improved remote sensing capabilities and launch tempos require the U.S. military to prepare to counteract China's use of space in a potential conflict over Taiwan. Commercially, China's lower labor costs and mercantilist approach to space could establish China as a competitive market force. Politically, U.S. diplomats must recognize the role Chinese space activities plays in diplomacy and be prepared to ameliorate cooperative activities that impinge on U.S. national security. Despite these drawbacks, cooperation with China cannot be ruled out. Cooperation can improve scientific research, increase safety, and make an opaque program more transparent, but should not directly improve China's military or commercial capabilities. Consequently, the U.S. response to China's rise as a space power should take a balanced approach in which challenges are managed and opportunities exploited.’s European allies, especially Britain, have frequently been concerned by the wider implications of U.S. repeated efforts to develop and deploy missile defenses.

Summary

The advance of the Chinese space program has laid a foundation for that country to enter into the top tier of space powers. In recent years, China has made important progress across a broad range of space technologies including launchers, launch schedules, satellites, and human space flight, and has taken a leading role in regional space cooperation.

This monograph examines how the United States should respond to China’s rise as a major space power based on China’s space activities during the period of the Tenth 5-Year Plan (2001-05). It finds that the Chinese space program made impressive gains during the Tenth 5-year Plan, but when compared with the other major space powers, China’s space technology still lags behind.

China’s burgeoning space program provides opportunities for China to use the benefits derived from space power to become a more influential and respected nation. While China does not have an official grand strategy, the Chinese leadership appears to have reached a consensus on a plan which sustains the conditions necessary for economic growth and military modernization in the context of operating in a unipolar world dominated by the United States. This strategy is designed to ultimately usher in a multipolar world in which China is one of several great powers by protecting China’s core national interests against external threats and by shaping the international system in which it operates.

To this end, China’s space program is intended to portray China as a modernizing nation committed to the peaceful use of space while at the same time serving China’s political, economic, and military interests. It contributes to China’s overall influence and provides capabilities that give China more freedom of action and opportunities for international leadership. Militarily, the People’s Liberation Army is undergoing reforms to transform itself into a military that is reliant on information for winning wars. Economically, China’s support for its space program lies in its potential as a driver for economic and technological advancement. Commercially, China is positioning itself as a low cost provider of space technologies and launch services. Commercial services not only increase revenues for the space industry but have also been used to advance China’s diplomatic interests with oil-rich countries. Politically, China’s expanding international cooperation on space activities portends a more influential foreign policy. Domestically, by developing a robust space program and participating in high-profile activities such as human space flight, the Communist Party demonstrates that it is the best provider of material benefits to the Chinese people and the best organization to propel China to its rightful place in world affairs.

China’s rise as a space power will present military, economic, and political challenges to the United States. Uncertainty over China’s pathway to potential major power status, the possibility of a conflict over Taiwan, and the inherent dual-use nature of space technologies means that China’s improving space capabilities could be used against the U.S. military. China’s efforts to develop its space program to transform itself into an economically and technologically powerful country may also come at the expense of U.S. leadership in both absolute and relative terms. China has also been able to use its space program to further its diplomatic objectives and to increase its influence in the developing world and among second-tier space powers.

China’s increasingly capable space program will have a net negative-sum effect on the United States and requires both domestic and international responses by the United States. Domestically, the U.S. Government and industry must improve the health of its space industry through better program management, attracting and retaining a competent workforce, and increasing funding to develop cutting edge technologies. Internationally, the United States must take into account China’s growing presence in world affairs, including space activities.

The rise of China as a space power also raises the question of whether the United States should cooperate with China in space. The difficulty in deciding an appropriate response arises from the inability of both sides to determine whether their relationship will be friendly or hostile. Nevertheless, the United States is presented with four policy options to meet the changing dynamics presented by China’s space program: contain, compete, cooperate, and do nothing.

Containment is the least viable of the four options, and as China becomes more integrated with the world, it will become even less practical.

Competition may also be problematic. U.S.-China relations may be ambivalent, but extensive cooperation does take place in many araeas, and it is not apparent how defining China as a competitor in a space race will further relations. It is also not apparent whether the American public will support a race which will require additional funding with little short-term gain.

Cooperation, on the other hand, has the potential to increase transparency and trust and to lessen competitive aspects that may lead to armed conflict. A policy that treats China as a friend, however, has its own shortcomings. Because China’s strategy is designed to further its own national interests and because its interests are often not aligned with U.S. interests, it is unlikely that assisting China in increasing its space power may eliminate these differences and may, in fact, exacerbate them.

Doing nothing is a safe option that does not risk the transfer of technology or expertise. A policy of inaction does risk ignoring the possible benefits of cooperation.

While the inherent military nature of China’s space program and its lack of transparency preclude most forms of cooperation, the United States can cooperate with China in beneficial ways that do not transfer technology or expertise. These include coordinating scientific research and increasing the safety of human spaceflight by establishing a code of conduct to rescue imperiled astronauts. Consequently, the challenge for the United States is to manage the positive-sum and negative-sum consequences of China’s ascendant space program by improving its space industry, better enabling its military to counter space-based threats, and engaging in cooperative activities that improve science and increase the safety of human space flight.

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