Space

Introduction

Yet another case of the United States Intelligence community’s failure to recognize the world around them has been revealed due to recent developments in space. This is not the first time that the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) did not correctly interpret space developments. As exemplified by the “technological surprise” of Sputnik in 1957, but also throughout the 1960’s during the Cold War lunar race. Using their so called “conservative approach” the CIA politicized the intelligence to fit the political agenda desired both at the agency and political level while denying overwhelming, irrefutable evidence coming from the US military intelligence community.

With much more left to be declassified and admittedly based on circumstantial evidence, this analyst has the sinking suspicion that the agency’s work was fully penetrated by a mole at the time. However, I am told it was a “meticulous failure” in its “sources and methodology” errors rather than a spy in its midst that invariable led to accepting the erroneous evidence as valid. We must remember that analysis is not devoid of political influence because the purpose of intelligence analysis is to develop policy.

It also must be accepted that the final answer to analysis is a political answer regardless of the analysis resulting conclusions. An example of this can be seen in the sitting administration, which was probably warned several years ago about China’s space intentions. Yet it has purposely said little or nothing about China while attempting to change the direction of US space activity. Even this change is too late and too little with the wrong design that repeats the mistakes of the past with a dangerous launch vehicle design that is unacceptable for human flight. Because of these mistakes the US may eventually allow the Chinese space program catch up with them.

Recent Russian Events

There have been recent commercial discussions by the S. P. Korolev Corporation, for a proposed 2008-2010 human circumlunar mission utilizing one Proton-K and one Soyuz booster with a Soyuz/Zond-TMA spacecraft. This is an entirely feasible operation. Although currently a dead end program it should go forward with international cooperation. The same company has also proposed a human lunar landing program that would utilize nine launches in total over three months in groups of three. This program would use eight Protons and one Soyuz booster with a Soyuz/Zond-TMA spacecraft, and is slated for the 2010-2014. Both missions are equally revealing cost wise for being based on Western funded inventive marketing?

Chinese Developments

The recent Chinese launch and the already declared Chinese commitment to the development of their Shenzhou program, a three human crew spacecraft, along with an initial rudimentary space station to be followed by the more developed Salyut class space station strongly suggest that China harbors its own manned lunar aspirations. The circumstantial evidence continues to mount that China is indeed planning on human crewed lunar circumnavigation program as well as eventual lunar orbit and human landings on the Moon and lunar base program before the US will be able to fully respond. The Russians who have provided help for China ’s strategic missile and space programs have clearly indicated that China will seek a separate space station program of their own. Completely independent International Space Station (ISS), the Chinese program is scheduled to appear by 2010 or the beginning of the following Five Year Plan January 1, 2011 according to current forecast plans.

Russian Commercial Program

There is a real possibility of a joint effort for a lunar circumnavigation manned mission. At least one Proton with Bloc-D is involved with the Earth Orbital Rendezvous EOR launched Soyuz/Zond-TMA spacecraft mission. Such a mission is possible, but currently a dead end project that should be completed by Russia with international cooperation. It does offer a potential lunar polar orbit science package that might be considered if it were an international cooperative mission. However, it has become quite clear that this is not a State sponsored mission only a commercial one that will not be opposed by the Federal Space Agency. This brings into serious question whether this will ever happen. That is regrettable because it would offer the opportunity for the US government to use incentives for a joint effort with potential benefit to both nations as a cooperative program before China does it for itself.

Does Russia , i.e. President Vladimir Putin, desire to be upstaged by China in a similar mission several years later when they could accomplish a prestigious precedent setting mission with their own effort in a cooperative program with the ISS partners? This analyst does not think Russia would settle for being third to any nation. Especially when through cooperation with the ISS partners the Russians could indeed recover a lot of pride and vindicate the late S. P. Korolev’s legacy. To do this successfully under a democratic government would indeed leave a serious political message that other authoritarian systems are not the way to get the job done, even the Russian themselves would understand this based on their initial failed experience.

The US government including NASA should think long and hard about this potential coup over China that could knock the pins out from under their planning, that is if we are smart enough to do this. This analyst for one does not desire to put up with China sticking it to us when we are unable to respond. This could also serve as one hell of an incentive to persuade Russian on its dealings with Iran . This manned lunar circumnavigation effort offers real possibilities the US can not afford to let go to waste.

The Russian Human Lunar Landing Program

A Russian manned lunar landing mission takes us back to late Dr. Charles S. Sheldon's II arguments in 1967 for a heavy lift “J” vehicle over many Proton & Soyuz launches for the former Soviet Union ’s manned lunar effort. The human lunar landing project would utilize over half the potential Proton Production per year with the assumption the launch facilities are available and that there would be no failures all along the way. Russia has never run that kind of quality control effort on that scale. It looks as if the manned lunar landing mission is planned to be completed in three months with three launch campaigns involving nine launches in total through an Earth orbital and lunar orbital rendezvous missions plan. The Russian human lunar landing program would operate as follows:

1. The first three launches involve two fully fueled Bloc-D's on two separate Proton launches and then a third Proton launch with a partially fueled Lunar Kabina (LK) of a design different from the original Soviet LK similar to the model seen in the Energiya museum. All the spacecraft are to be assembled through earth orbital rendezvous for lunar orbit insertion.

2. The next month’s second three launches utilizes two more Proton launched Bloc-D's assembled in Earth orbit and a third Proton launch possible with a Bloc-M fuel tanker to fuel the LK in lunar orbit again all assembled in earth orbit to place the tanker into lunar orbit and docking with the LKm to load the propellants.

3. The third months final three launches again involve two Proton launched Bloc-D's with the third launch possible on a standard Soyuz or a Soyuz-2/RUS booster with a Soyuz/Zond-TMA modified spacecraft possible also utilizing the Ikar stage again assembled in Earth orbit to place in lunar orbit the Soyuz/Zond-TMA spacecraft for rendezvous and docking with the now fully fueled LKm. Soyuz/Zond-TMA does the return TEI burn with a double dip reentry like Zond program did accomplish.

No wonder the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle ( EELV) options are not being considered by NASA's for the lunar return designs. To this analyst it is dangerous to assume that all of those Protons, amounting to nearly a year’s production, would work without any failure. Especially given Russian quality control, this plan does not seem to be a real world scenario. The problems with even testing this scenario are scary when considering end to end quality control requirements and tests. Russia needs a heavy lift like Nl-L3m not Energiya. Korolev and Mishin were right to reject such an approach Does the FSA really consider this to be real? That is doubtful. But the lunar circumnavigation would place them in the game cooperatively.

Follow the Money?

$100 million is the price being floated for a commercial manned lunar circum navigation mission with three people (two customers) in the lunar landing effort. The customer must study the merchants asking price proposal verses what it may actually be negotiated for behind closed doors. The sales price and the negotiated price are two very different worlds. Of Course the Russian government does not charge itself retail so this is curious as to what the real cost and profit will be and especially where it is to go?

The cost per passenger is $100 million. Based on open source information from the Federal Space Agency the Soyuz booster cost, plus Lunar Soyuz/Zond-TMA spacecraft cost is approximately $28.6 million. Then add the Proton cost about $75 to $98 million and the estimated training 1.5 million and it comes to roughly $105.10 - $128.1 million. Divided by the three crew persons and the cost is basically $35.3 - 42.7 million for the real individual person cost. Of course the retailer would probably need the full price for consideration paid up front.

The spacecraft engineering modifications and the flight test, support makes it even more expensive to human rate the systems but that is the Russian government’s responsibility. With two passengers as part of the three person crew the cost figures are $42.7 multiplied by 2 and thus equal $85.4 plus $2.4 million equals $87.8 million. Using the $200 million mission retail price tag the company would make $112.2 million per customer before considering other costs. The Proton is of course right up there with the higher figures here. Also individuals for a Soyuz flight would pay a cost of about $9.5 million plus training cost. Assuming $10 million per individual then two individuals equal $20 million. The retailer wants the full price as advertised but one always considers that negotiable.

China ’s End Game?

China ’s most recent second Shenzhou flight basically shows that China is taking the deliberately preplanned basic steps to developing a human space fairing capability. It is basically demonstrating the previously capabilities already developed by the US and Russia . Equally China is emphasizing the use of theses basic sciences to push the basic technologies that drive its national economy and its State mandated Five Year Plan requirements. Once the flights of the Shenzhou - 7, 8, 9, & 10 are completed with their longer duration, docking and Extra Vehicular Activity (EVA) operations they will have achieved a basic operational capability allowing the planned expansion of the human program into a early rudimentary space station and more developed Salyut class space station already approved by the State and probably preliminary humans lunar circumnavigation programs all well before 2015.

This being China ’s second manned mission does not yet place it in a position to compete with the established US, Russian and ESA capabilities. Though it could be said that it is acquiring the capability to eventually threaten competition but at this point they are not even in a comfortable operational mode only an advanced Research and Development (R & D) mode. With China only launching a manned mission once a year, they are basically short of any kind of operational capability. This indicates a stretched out under funded budget program with other priorities being placed over the steady, deliberately paced Shenzhou program.

This launch could help China ’s prestige perception to the rest of the world as a space fairing powers. However, until it signs and enforces the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty it will continue to be stopped from launching US based satellites or US made satellite components placed in foreign satellites greatly reducing its commercial satellite launching opportunities. This is especially the case in the face of the known documented proliferation activity for Pakistan ’s, North Korea ’s as well as Iran ’s both nuclear and missile weapons of mass destruction systems. There is no way the United States is going to consider, much less permit China to be a part of the ISS program as long as China continues to violate the MTCR.

Science & Technology Drivers of the Military Five Year Plans

Yes they are making advances for themselves but are still very much in the catch up mode to the Science & Technology (S & T) leaders of the world that are much more advanced in this arena. The military implications come from the S & T spin offs as well as management of a large S & T program are innumerable. There are also opportunities for accomplishments in systems engineering skills that have not previously been done before by the Chinese. This especially applies in the management of information and information technology analysis with all the applications to national security issues.

There are some strong implications that the manned program is supporting the leading edge military intelligence program developments. The program seems to be leading to a space station that could serve as a manned military intelligence platform but nothing is certain yet. As they gain experience these systems could become primarily unmanned near real time platforms. As the Chinese gain experience and the technology they will be able to run such programs similar to the US and Russia . They are years from being able to field a major threat to the US military dominance in space assets which will continue to be improved, provided the leadership makes the prudent decisions demanded.

These S & T programs took on special urgency after the technological surprise of the first Gulf War performance of the US strategic capability. This made China ’s military and leadership very uneasy because it became clear that it was an obvious weakness of their military, which it has been in the process of compensating for ever since. When China observed the over whelming “Information Warfare” success of the US and its allies its aftermath had a severe impact on the Chinese military strength assessment. It clearly showed that they could be beaten with smaller numbers of forces using sophisticated technology. That shook the Chinese military establishment. Since the State and the Military are one in the same in China something had to change quickly.

In the mean time the Chinese military began saber rattling due to the weakened position they found themselves. So it is no surprise that they soon embraced and strongly supported the program 863 because of the potential spin-offs for National Security purposes. Soon after Chinese military began to understand the S & T involved and began to modernize their military to match Western capabilities. Today they are still in a catch up mode for several more Five Year Plans to come before their conventional forces come close to the United States military prowess. While China progresses in its development the level of saber rattling within the military will hopefully continue to subside as it gains confidence it does not have now because of the US S & T dominance in strategic systems technologies. With knowledge comes a sobering understanding of ones standing in the world and to some extent, safety.

This also implies that the manned program serves a dual role as both a propaganda platform, to say that China is a world power, and a legitimization of the regime leadership, to say to the Chinese people that look what we have achieved under their leadership, as a justification for their existence. That present leadership in China is relatively weak compared to previous leaderships. The technical accomplishment of manned spaceflight places China in a elite class, as only the third nation on this planet to successfully develop and operate an independent manned space program. This is in addition to its Communication, Weather, and Imaging satellite programs.

Should the present US administration and future administrations be concerned by the Chinese developing civil/military space capabilities? Why do you think the present occupiers of the Oval Office are pushing the Bush Space Initiative? It is because they are concerned about technological surprise i.e. being “Sputnik-ed” by the Chinese in many areas that are politically or militarily unacceptable.

Well the response is too late and too little with the wrong design, that repeats the mistakes of the past with a dangerous launch vehicle design that is unacceptable for human flight.

Both Russia and China have their own military-space agenda’s, especially manned lunar plans, of which the US is incapable of matching or exceeding right now. Thus Russia could accomplish a manned lunar circumnavigation flight by 2008 or 2009 and a manned lunar landing by 2012 and China is expected to do a manned lunar circumnavigation flight as early as 2012 but more likely by 2014-2015 at the latest. The Chinese might even manage a manned lunar landing shortly before the US is set to return to the moon in 2018.

From the start of this process China has, much like the West, used the available discretionary funds to push its S & T to drive its national economy and provide for development of its military industrial industry capabilities. In China , the authoritarian State exists based on the military. China ’s military space capability would develop regardless of what the West does but it is still far behind the US present evolving military space capability. But in 15 years or so China may indeed fully challenge our leadership regardless of what China may say publicly.

They are challenging the US predominance on the world stage because it is their belief doctrinally that the US is on the decline, and will be replaced by China along with other nations.

Considering the present US economic vitality, reality brings into serious question it capabilities to successfully fend off these challenges. The potential introduction of a separate space effort as opposed to the existing S & T leadership embodied in the ISS effort is cause for concern. Along with the general S & T challenge that is cropping up all over the world does this program represents a major national security threat in development, especially when considering Weapons of Mass Destruction.

In the final analysis China ’s efforts in space can only help, because it will force whoever occupies the Oval Office to address issues that have been largely ignored since the early 1970's. The US however, may not even be able to address these issues because of problems with the economy, huge national debt, and a possible devaluation of the dollar. The US is simply not the economic powerhouse it once was because of poor internal industrial management decisions, to the delight of many opponents of our social system world wide. If we do not watch it we can bankrupt the US economy as the former Soviet Union did to its self creating a huge vacuum for chaos to break loose far worse than the current situation.

Authoritarian Regime & the Military S & T Five Year Plans

The Military is the State and the State is the Military under this Chinese authoritarian regime. The military is behind this space program and its associated industry is running the program from under the same roof. At the present time the Chinese leadership appears set to only catch up to where the US and former USSR were during the mid to late 1960's. They are under no illusions of what it is going to take to accomplish this assuming the leadership continues to support it.

We have to understand why these programs are being pursued by China . It has been the plan at least since the introduction of the 862 program in 1986 to apply from the total available government funding about 40% to basic scientific research to push the basic sciences. While about 60 % of the available funding is to push the basic technologies, (research development). This is done to drive the national economy and to provide for the Citizenry’s well being. Above all, it is to provide for the National Security of the nation by keeping the Chinese technologically competitive with the technologically advanced world leaders. Typically this funding is broken down between strictly military programs and civil dual purpose programs.

Why these programs are being pursued by China and what problems it is solving for them is not totally clear at this point. Since the introduction of the 863 S & T program in 1986 China has clearly been pursuing a world class S & T status through a large array of projects that either serve the military or are civil duel purpose programs. They are clearly aimed at matching or challenging the global S & T leadership as a long term conscientious effort on their part. Overall this may be the basis of why they are doing this manned program but when the details are studied it becomes murky. Clearly SIGINT and imagery reconnaissance do not require a manned tended space operation, but that is what is developing as a secondary mission under the S & T five year plans. Certainly the Space program is on the leading edge of S & T development in the “forecast planning” of the five year programs of China .

The Chinese PRC Communist command economy is run on Five Year Plans, which have no relationship to real money as understood by the rest of the world (only material, and personnel allocation) count under such a system. China has released no figures on the total cost of the program and its personnel and material allocations. If one does not understand the five year plan material allocation budget process and its associated “Forecast Planning” one can not understand what is going on with the Chinese space programs. There is no way of defining the Five Year Plan, budget at the present time since the full budget is not published because it is a state secret and it depends on the leaderships decisions through the 20 year “Forecast Planning” process which will become apparent in the next two five year plans after this one in progress. In this Chinese command economy, under this five year plan January 1, 2001 through January 1, 2006 through the now delayed first docking of spacecraft in space a total of apparently 19 billion Renminbi (US $2.3 billion) has been allocated for the manned program. The trend is expected to continue as long as the Chinese are in the mode of developing new future medium and heavy lift launch vehicles such as the Long March-5 series.

LM-5 Launch Site Preparation

There is still no indication of launch site construction on Hainan Island east of Sanya but it is also recognized that Jiuquan could support the early elements of the LM-5 provided Kerosene and Lox propellant farms are developed. Time will tell and this leaves some serious concerns over the program pacing verses what has been publicly discussed.

The Russians who have provided help for pay in their strategic missile and space programs and this manned program have clearly indicated that China will seek a separate space station program of their own independent of ISS which according to the present forecast plans is scheduled to appear by 2010 or the beginning of the following Five Year Plan January 1, 2011.

Long March-5 Launch Vehicle Series Harold of the Future End Game

China plans to introduce the new Long March-5 medium heavy lift launch vehicle in the Proton/Titan 3/4 class sometime in the middle of the next five year plan which runs from January 1, 2006 through January 1, 2011 . With this vehicle we can assume that more advanced unmanned lunar, planetary probes will appear by the end of that five year plan. This is in addition to the approved and funded Space Station programs early in the following five year plan program. The planned human crewed lunar circumnavigation programs should also appear early in the beginning of the following Five Year Plan that runs from January 1, 2011 - January 1, 2016 . That is, if the Long March-5 launch vehicle does not give the Chinese too much trouble with its advanced closed cycle propulsion system and Kerosene/LOX propellants.

In the mean time they plan to use the existing spacecraft variations and their boosters to do the initial unmanned lunar exploration. Eventually down the road two Five Year Plans beyond the present plan we could expect them to start developing a Saturn-V class launch vehicle for human lunar and large earth orbit payloads assuming the leadership still supports such a policy in the future. Ultimately it is the political leadership that must support and justify these programs in spite of how much the industry and scientist believe it to be necessary. The final answer to the S & T leadership questions must be a political answer. This does however not preclude unmanned lunar exploration in support of future follow on human exploration of the Moon and unmanned exploration of the planets as previously noted. Certainly the introduction of the LM-5 booster will be the advent of unmanned lunar exploration probably followed with a limited manned circumnavigation program in the 2012-2014 time frames.

China's Economic Prospects

The clearly under funded stretched out space program under this five year plan can now be explained as being based in China's over performing economy problems. We now know that China's economy is in fact in serious trouble facing possible collapse from to much success in the Western economic zones. This is driven by the policy that over emphasis factory development and production capacity with considerable savings ie: emphasizing civil military technology development far in excess of what is needed without emphasizing the basic sciences in an appropriate proportion along with failure to reform the defense industries. This is the formula that helped collapse the former Soviet Union when it put its emphasis on technological development over the basic sciences from the late 1950's and early 1960's. By the early 1980's the Former Soviet Union knew it was in economic trouble but did not reform itself. In the recent past the Chinese leadership has admitted that if they had not reformed what part of the civil economy they did that brought in Western economic investment that the Chinese economy would have collapsed. The in compatibility of the Western style capitalist economy with China's Five Year Plan, command economy has been colliding for some time now with serious future implications now becoming apparent. How this is impacting their civil military space programs has so far only begun to manifest itself.

Conclusion

One day we may wake up and realize that with little warning China has launched a precursor un-crewed earth orbital rendezvous EOR lunar circumnavigation mission. To be promptly followed by a manned lunar circumnavigation. After that a lunar orbital mission is quite possible, because once the LM-5 booster becomes operational after 2010, the Shenzhou spacecraft has an already built in design for earth orbit and can also orbit the moon. It could with proper equipment also support a manned lunar landing mission either through EOR or through the introduction of a new booster beyond the capability of the LM-5 which they have only in the last few days hinted at as required after the next Five Year Plan.

CPV