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THIS HEARING WILL PRESENT THE RESULTS OF THE SUBCOMMITTEE'S FIVE-MONTH INVESTIGATION INTO THE PERFORMANCE OF THE PATRIOT MISSILE SYSTEM IN THE GULF WAR.

THE INVESTIGATION IS COMPLEX AND FASCINATING. IT IS A STORY OF HOW WE PROJECTED WHAT WE WANTED TO BELIEVE ONTO THE TV SCREEN. IT'S ABOUT HOW A GOVERNMENT CAN MANIPULATE OUR UNDERSTANDING BY CONTROLLING INFORMATION AND MEDIA ACCESS. AND IT'S ABOUT HOW GOVERNMENT CAN MISUSE SECRECY AND CLASSIFICATION TO HIDE THE TRUTH.

DURING THE WAR WE ALL WATCHED THE TELEVISION IN AWE. WE THOUGHT WE SAW THE PATRIOT STREAKING SKYWARD, DESTROYING EVERY SCUD THAT CAME IN RANGE. WE SAW THE FIREBALLS. WE HEARD THE EXPLOSIONS. WE SAW THE JUBILATION OF THE TROOPS, AND WE HEARD THE PRIDE IN THE OFFICIALS' VOICES AS THEY ANNOUNCED DAY AFTER DAY, "SCUDS INTERCEPTED AND DESTROYED."

WE WERE - AND STILL ARE - PROUD OF THE TROOPS WHO PUT THEIR LIVES ON THE LINE. WE WERE - AND STILL ARE - PROUD OF THE DEFENSE WORKERS WHO TOILED TO BUILD THE PATRIOT, SOME OF WHOM HAVE SINCE BEEN LAID OFF.

WE THOUGHT THE PATRIOT WAS NEAR PERFECT.

WE WERE WRONG.

AS SHERLOCK HOLMES SAID, "WE SEE BUT WE DO NOT OBSERVE." AS A RESULT OF THE SUBCOMMITTEE'S INVESTIGATION WE NOW HAVE A MUCH CLEARER PICTURE OF WHAT HAPPENED A YEAR AGO IN THE GULF WAR. IRONICALLY, THE MORE INFORMATION WE HAVE, THE LESS SUCCESSFUL THE PATRIOT SEEMS.

I CAN SUMMARIZE A FEW OF THE PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS OF THIS INVESTIGATION.

• WE KNOW THAT THE CLASSIFIED ASSESSMENT THE ARMY HAS GIVEN FOR THE PAST YEAR TO TOP ADMINISTRATION OFFICIALS AND MEMBERS OF CONGRESS IS WRONG.
• WE KNOW THAT THE ARMY EVALUATION THAT BACKED UP THAT BRIEFING IS DEEPLY FLAWED.
• AS A RESULT OF OUR INVESTIGATION, WE NOW KNOW THAT THE PREVIOUS CLAIMS OF PATRIOT SUCCESS ARE WRONG.
  • ON JANUARY 30, 1991, GENERAL SCHWARZKOPF SAID THE PATRIOT DESTROYED 33 OUT OF 33 SCUDS. IT DID NOT.
  • ON FEBRUARY 15, 1991, PRESIDENT BUSH SAID THE PATRIOT INTERCEPTED 41 OUT OF 42 SCUDS. IT DID NOT.
  • ON MARCH 13, 1991, ARMY OFFICIALS TOLD CONGRESS THE PATRIOT INTERCEPTED 45 OUT OF 47 SCUDS. IT DID NOT.
  • ON APRIL 25,1991, THE VICE-PRESIDENT OF RAYTHEON CLAIMED THE PATRIOT DESTROYED 90 PERCENT OF THE SCUD WARHEADS. IT DID NOT.
• THIS IS NOT JUST OUR OPINION. THE ARMY NOW AGREES.
• SUBCOMMITTEE INVESTIGATORS EXAMINED IN DETAIL THE EVALUATION PERFORMED BY THE ARMY AND THE RAYTHEON COMPANY IN SUPPORT OF THESE CLAIMS. WE WERE THE FIRST AND ONLY CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE TO ASK THE ARMY AND RAYTHEON TO PROVE ITS CLAIMS. THEY COULD NOT.
• JUST LAST WEEK ARMY OFFICIALS INFORMED THE SUBCOMMITTEE THAT THEY WERE REVISING THEIR EVALUATION IN RESPONSE TO THE SUBCOMMITTEE'S INVESTIGATION. THE NEW ESTIMATE DRAMATICALLY REDUCES THE ARMY'S VIEW OF PATRIOTS EFFECTIVENESS. ARMY OFFICIALS NOW BELIEVE THEY CAN CLAIM WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT, OF THE SCUD WARHEADS ENGAGED, THE PATRIOT DESTROYED ONLY A SMALL PERCENTAGE. (THE NUMBER IS STILL CLASSIFIED.)

WE WILL NEVER HAVE THE FULL STORY OF THE PATRIOT UNLESS THE ARMY'S ANALYSIS IS DECLASSIFIED FOR ALL TO SEE. BUT WE KNOW ENOUGH TO WANT THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE TO ORDER AN INDEPENDENT EVALUATION OF THIS ANALYSIS BY A GROUP THAT DOES NOT HAVE AN INTEREST IN THE OUTCOME.

I WROTE SECRETARY CHENEY SIX WEEKS AGO REQUESTING BOTH DECLASSIFICATION AND AN OBJECTIVE REVIEW. THE SECRETARY REFERRED MY LETTER TO THE ARMY. I HAVE NOT HAD A FORMAL REPLY, BUT HAVE BEEN TOLD INFORMALLY THAT THE ANSWER IS NO, AND NO.

I DO HOPE THE SECRETARY WILL RECONSIDER.

SOME EXPERTS HAVE CONCLUDED THAT THE PUBLIC VIDEO EVIDENCE REVEALS PROOF OF PATRIOT FAILURE. THIS SUBCOMMITTEE'S INVESTIGATION DID NOT LOOK FOR FAILURE, WE LOOKED FOR PROOF OF PATRIOT SUCCESS. WE LOOK FOR EVIDENCE THAT SOME OF THE 159 PATRIOTS LAUNCHED IN THE WAR DESTROYED SCUD WARHEADS. TODAY WE ARE GOING TO HEAR THE PRELIMINARY FINDINGS.

WITHOUT OBJECTION, I WILL SUBMIT A SUMMARY OF THESE FINDINGS FOR THE RECORD.

• SUBCOMMITTEE INVESTIGATORS SPENT TWO MONTHS EXAMINING EVERY REPORT PROVIDED BY THE ARMY AND RAYTHEON. THEY FOUND STRONG EVIDENCE OF A WARHEAD DESTROYED BY THE PATRIOT IN ONLY ONE CASE.
• THE BASIC EVIDENCE THE ARMY AND RAYTHEON CITED FOR WARHEAD KILLS IS THE ABSENCE OF GROUND DAMAGE. GROUND DAMAGE PROVES THE SCUD WAS NOT INTERCEPTED; BUT THE ABSENCE OF DAMAGE DOES NOT MEAN IT WAS INTERCEPTED. SCUDS WOULD LAND IN THE DESERT OR IN THE WATER, AND WARHEAD KILLS WOULD BE CLAIMED. MANY OF THE SCUDS WERE DUDS. SOME HAD ONLY A LITTLE EXPLOSIVE IN THEIR WARHEAD. SOME HAD CONCRETE WARHEADS. THE ARMY ANALYSIS DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR THESE DUDS.
  WE KNOW THAT IN ISRAEL THERE WERE THOROUGH, ORGANIZED SEARCHES AND THAT IN SAUDI ARABIA THERE WERE NOT. SHORTLY AFTER THE SCUD ATTACKS BEGAN, THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT BANNED TELEVISION IMAGES OF SCUDS HITTING THE GROUND AND BANNED ALL REPORTS OF GROUND DAMAGE. WE KNOW THAT THERE ARE MANY TIMES FEWER WARHEAD KILLS CLAIMED IN ISRAEL THAN IN SAUDI ARABIA. AND, DESPITE THE SAUDI CENSORSHIP, THERE IS VIDEO EVIDENCE OF SEVERE GROUND DAMAGE IN SAUDI ARABIA AFTER ATTACKS IN WHICH THE ARMY CLAIMS THE WARHEADS WERE DESTROYED.
• THE ARMY'S BASIC EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT ITS CLAIMS OF MISSION KILLS IS THAT THE SCUD LANDED SOMEPLACE OTHER THAN WHERE THE PATRIOT'S COMPUTERS PREDICTED. HOWEVER, THE TUMBLING AND BREAK-UP OF THE SCUDS MADE THE IMPACT POINTS HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE. THAT ENEMY MISSILES LANDED WHERE ALLIED FORCES DID NOT EXPECT IS UNRELIABLE PROOF THAT THEY WERE INTERCEPTED.
• AFTER REVIEWING OVER 140 VIDEO TAPES OF SCUD ENGAGEMENTS BROADCAST BY TELEVISION NETWORKS, THE SUBCOMMITTEE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO FIND CLEAR VIDEO EVIDENCE OF EVEN ONE SCUD WARHEAD DESTROYED BY PATRIOTS.
• SUBCOMMITTEE INVESTIGATORS ALSO REVIEWED THE PRECISION AND INFRARED FILMS BY THE ISRAELI MILITARY PROVIDED TO THE SUBCOMMITTEE. AGAIN, THE FILMS DO NOT SHOW EVEN ONE SCUD HIT BY A PATRIOT. IN FACT, THE MISS DISTANCES ARE QUITE LARGE AND CAN BE SEEN DRAMATICALLY IN THE INFRARED FILMS. THE ARMY, HOWEVER, CALLS SOME OF THESE ENGAGEMENTS WARHEAD KILLS. THESE TAPES ARE STILL CLASSIFIED.
• THERE IS ALSO VIDEO EVIDENCE OF SOME HALF DOZEN PATRIOTS IN BOTH ISRAEL AND SAUDI ARABIA THAT CAN BE SEEN CRASHING INTO URBAN AREAS. IN THE ARMY EVALUATION, THESE WERE NOT REPORTED.
• WE NOW KNOW THAT THE EXPLOSIONS WE SAW IN THE SKY WERE NOT CAUSED BY DIRECT IMPACTS BUT BY PROXIMITY FUSES AS THE PATRIOT NEARED A SCUD OR A SCUD FRAGMENT OR BY THE MISSILE AUTOMATICALLY SELF-DESTRUCTING AFTER MISSING A SCUD.

THIS IS A COMPLEX AND CONTROVERSIAL ISSUE. MANY LIVES AND BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ARE AT STAKE. I ASK THE MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE TO KEEP AN OPEN MIND AS WE PROCEED THROUGH THE TESTIMONY TODAY.

BUT LET US ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT IN FUTURE CONFLICTS, WE COULD UNNECESSARILY ENDANGER SOLDIERS' LIVES IF WE DEPLOY PATRIOT BASED ON OPTIMISTIC ASSESSMENTS OF ITS CAPABILITIES. IF AMERICAN SOLDIERS THINK THEY CAN DEPEND ON PATRIOT BATTALIONS DESTROYING 9 OUT OF 10 ENEMY MISSILES, WHEN THE ACTUAL DEFENSIVE CAPABILITIES MAY BE CLOSER TO 1 OUT OF 50, IT COULD BE A DISASTER.

IF WE KNOW THAT, BUT REFUSE TO ADMIT IT, THEN THE OFFENSE IS CRIMINAL. THIS IS NOT SOMETHING I INTEND TO ALLOW.

I NOW TURN TO DISTINGUISHED LEADER, MY FRIEND, THE GENTLEMAN FROM NEW YORK, THE HONORABLE FRANK HORTON. IN DOING SO, I NOTE THAT WE HAVE TRIED OUR BEST TO RESPOND TO ALL THE REQUESTS OF THE MINORITY FOR THIS HEARING. HOPEFULLY THE MINORITY MEMBERS FEEL THE SAME WAY.

THIS HEARING HAS BEEN DESIGNED TO PROCEED STEP BY STEP THROUGH THE MAZE OF CONFLICTING CLAIMS AND TO ALLOW ALL SIDES A FAIR HEARING.

FIRST, SOME OF OUR CONGRESSIONAL INVESTIGATORS WILL REPORT THE RESULTS OF THEIR REVIEW OF THE ARMY'S EVALUATION. THIS EVALUATION HAS BEEN THE SOLE BASIS FOR CLAIMS OF PATRIOT SUCCESS UP UNTIL TODAY. MUCH OF THE DATA IN THAT ANALYSIS REMAINS CENTRAL TO THE ARMY'S UPDATED EVALUATION.

NEXT WE WILL HEAR A SUMMARY OF THE EVIDENCE FROM THE ISRAELI EXPERIENCE FROM ONE OF THAT COUNTRY'S RECOGNIZED DEFENSE EXPERTS.

THEN WE WILL EXAMINE CLAIMS THAT THE VIDEO RECORDINGS OF ATTEMPTED. PATRIOT INTERCEPTS CAN PROVIDE MEANINGFUL DATA. THESE CLAIMS WILL BE CHALLENGED BY TWO WITNESSES CHOSEN BY THE MINORITY AT THE SUGGESTION OF THE RAYTHEON COMPANY.

RAYTHEON COMPANY WILL THEN SPEAK FOR ITSELF, FOLLOWED BY A PRESENTATION BY THE ARMY OF THEIR LATEST ANALYSIS.