Qatar - Military Budget and Personnel

Qatar embarked on one of the most ambitious armament programs seen in the Middle East in recent times. Its armed forces are growing exponentially as its air force increases in size from 12 to 96 fighter jets, with more on the way. Its army and navy have seen rapid expansion as Qatar spends billions of dollars in order to protect itself. Qatar, with its large expatriate population, has traditionally been focused on internal security but the sharp downturn in relations with its large and well-armed neighbours forced it to re-evaluate its military.

Relations soured in the aftermath of the Arab Spring as each country in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) sought to aid and support various factions in the evolving conflicts in Libya and Syria. Growing regional enmity came into sharp focus in 2014 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain recalled their ambassadors from Qatar. Although they were returned to Doha several months later it was clear there had been a significant rift within the GCC that was unlikely to heal any time soon. Qatar quietly looked into boosting its meagre armed forces.

The downturn in regional relations reached a critical point in June 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain and Egypt, in a coordinated effort, cut diplomatic ties with Qatar. Emboldened by a mercurial Trump administration in Washington, DC, these countries recalled their ambassadors, expelled those of Qatar and imposed a severe economic blockade on the country. The immediate closure of the Turkish base was among a list of demands issued to Qatar.

Rapid military expansion is not without its challenges. Buying weapons from multiple countries means logistics and supply can be an issue. The integration of increasingly complex systems into a unified structure can also be challenging. The largest hurdle for the Qatari military will be manpower. In a small country with a population of 2.78 million, trained personnel adept in the weapons and tactics of 21st-century warfare are relatively scarce.

Nevertheless, the rapid expansion of Qatar’s armed forces has been nothing short of dramatic. In just a few years, every branch of its military has increased in size by orders of magnitude, their firepower and training moving at a great pace. Formerly a cash-rich but militarily insignificant country, Qatar has grown into a powerful regional force, with allies both in and beyond the region.

While official data on military expenditures are not published, the defense budget estimate of US$500 million for 1989 was 8 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). The estimate of US$934 million for 1991, an increase of 80 percent over 1989, was presumably attributable to the costs of the Persian Gulf War. By 2009 defense spending was the lowest priority within the Government - "are the shortest man" in the budget process. Qatar's armed forces are getting less while the Al-Thani continued their (unchecked) spending. By 2010 Qatar's defense expenditures were estimated to be in the range of 10% of GDP. With this Qatar maintained a modest military force of about 12,000 men, including an army, navy, and air force. By 2012 the budget crunch was over, and Qatar embarked on a lavish acquisition program for the Air Force.

Qatar continues to face a formidable challenge staffing its military, both in its senior and junior officer corps while the enlisted ranks continues to be an attractive economic occupation for third country nationals. The Qatar Armed Forces' senior leadership is reaching retirement age and there is a shortage of mid-grade officers willing to step up to the time and energy demands placed on senior military leaders. There is also a shortage of junior officers, as the drive to fill more private sector jobs and booming economy are providing them with economic incentives to careers outside the military.

There will be continued growth in the number of enlisted personnel, but this growth will be among third-country nationals who have no vested interest. The preponderance of foreign nationals in the enlisted ranks will continue to be a cause for US concern with the transfer of defense technologies to the Qatari Armed Forces. Qatar's ability to absorb these advanced technologies, coupled with the disclosure and access concerns of foreign nationals working on or around US weapons systems, will further complicate the already confusing and cumbersome FMS process for Qatar defense weapons purchases.

The end of long-standing border disputes with Saudi Arabia and Bahrain had a beneficial impact on the defence posture of this small peninsular state in the Arabian Gulf. Additionally, the mutually-agreed arms control being exercised by the members of the Gulf Co-operation Council saw Qatar's limited but effective armed forces enter a period of stasis in the new century, with no new acquisitions foreseen for several years.

The Qatari military works on a frugal budget, with national priority given to economic development. Although senior military leaders understand and accept the subordination of defense needs to economic development, the inability to fund force modernization adequately and rapidly causes tension between the Qatari Armed Forces Services Chiefs and the Ministry of Finance. The level of friction and frustration contributes to the desires of many senior leaders to expedite their exodus from the armed forces. This trend of fiscal frugality with regards to defense spending continued to govern the pace of weapons system procurement and modernization.

This pattern of frugality began to change in July 2008, with the announced sale of two C- 17 Globemaster III aircraft and associated equipment and services for a total value of $400 million. But the floodgates opended in 2012, with the announcement of over $20 billion in contracts:

• 12 UH-60M BLACK HAWK Utility Helicopters for an estimated cost of $1.112 billion.
• 12 MH-60S SEAHAWK Multi-Mission Helicopters for an estimated cost of $2.5 billion.
• 24 AH-64D APACHE Block III LONGBOW Attack Helicopters for an estimated cost of $3.0 billion.
• 11 PATRIOT Configuration-3 Fire Units for an estimated cost of $9.9 billion.
• 2 THAAD Fire Units for an estimated cost of $6.5 billion.

On 15 July 2014 the United States signed an agreement with Qatar to sell Apache attack helicopters and Patriot and Javelin air-defense systems valued at $11bn. Altogether Qatar bought 10 batteries of Patriot missile defense systems and 500 Javelin anti-tank missiles manufactured by US defense industry giants Raytheon and Lockheed Martin, and 24 Apache helicopters made by Boeing. The Patriot complexes with 247 PAC-3 missiles cost over $7 billion, the Apache helicopters and related gear are worth over $3 billion, and the Javelin anti-tank missiles cost additional $100 million.

Contracts for as many as three dozen new fighter aircraft had been expected for 2012, but as of mid-2014 no decision had been forthcoming.

Qatar will continue to modernize its military through the purchase of US weapons systems, with continued competition from French, British, Russian, and other international firms looking to gain a foothold in this expanding lucrative market. Qatar recognizes that US systems are the most advanced in the world and have confidence in the battle tested performance and quality of US weapons and the accompanying logistics life-cycle support. It is still attracted to French and British systems, however, due to the exigencies of the US foreign military sales system. As Qatar learns the US foreign military sales system, it will buy more US systems.

The Qatari leadership seeks to increase the prestige of its military within the GCC and the international arena but has no clearly defined strategy for doing so. Likewise, Qatar is attracted to the latest military systems, although its military modernization is not guided by a national security strategy. The preeminence of the Qatari Amiri Air Force currently drives modernization efforts, and confidence in the Air Force senior leader corps is evident in their designation as procurement committee chairs for weapon systems across the services. This "cart before the horse" trend of weapon system procurement driving Qatari national defense posture in lieu of national or military security strategy will continue. In many regards, the purchase of strategic and tactical airlift platforms is misaligned with the maritime and ballistic missile threat from Iran; however, it does align with Qatar's desire to carve out a niche in the region and on the international stage as a Human Relief and Disaster Response force.