Portugal - 2022 - Election

Portugal, which includes the archipelagos of the Azores and Madeira, is a semi-presidential republic, with legislative powers vested in the unicameral parliament. The early parliamentary elections were called by the President in accordance with the Constitution and upon consultation with all parliamentary parties following the resignation of the Prime Minister due to alleged involvement in high-profile corruption cases. Voters will elect 230 members of the parliament for a fouryear term through a proportional closed list system in 22 multi-member constituencies. Women are generally well represented with 85 members (37 per cent) women in the parliament and 9 out of 17 ministers in the outgoing government. The legal framework for parliamentary elections remains unchanged and primarily consists of the Constitution, the election law as well as a number of laws that regulate different aspects of the elections.

Citizens with active suffrage rights are eligible to be elected, with the exception of certain high level public officials. Only registered political parties may nominate candidate lists and individual candidates are not allowed to contest, which is contrary to international standards. The law requires a minimum representation of 40 per cent of each gender on candidate lists and prescribes that each gender be represented among every three consecutive candidates on the lists.

The official campaign starts 14 days prior to the election day. The legislation provides for equal campaign conditions and prohibits campaigning by public entities, including online. Traditional inperson canvassing, televised debates and campaigning on social networks were considered by many observers as the most efficient outreach methods.

Campaigns may be financed from public and private funds and the law sets individual donation and expenditure limits. There are no legal provisions for interim reporting prior to election day. The financing of political parties and campaigning by third parties is not regulated. Portugal enjoys a diverse media environment; television is the main source of information. Fundamental freedoms are guaranteed, but defamation, insult, and slander remain criminalized, contrary to international standards. The media-related legislation provides for editorial freedom of media during election campaigns, fair and equitable treatment of candidates in the news, free airtime for contestants, and a ban on paid political advertising on TV and online from the day the elections are called. The coverage of parties’ activities on news programming may be perceived as disproportionally in favour of the far-right parties.

Following the last early parliamentary elections on 30 January 2022, eight political groups gained representation in parliament. The Socialist Party (120 seats), Social Democratic Party (72 seats), the Chega (Enough) Party (12 seats), the Liberal Initiative (8 seats), the Communist Party (6 seats), Left Bloc (5 seats), and People-Animals-Nature and LIVRE with 1 seat each. Several other parties are represented in the legislatures of the autonomous regions, the Legislative Assembly of Azores and the Legislative Assembly of Madeira.

The Socialist Party (PS) of the incumbent Prime Minister Antonio Costa received four seats above the minimum required and was able to form a majority government. In the outgoing parliament, 85 members (37 per cent) are women, a 3 per cent decrease from the previous convocation. Nine out of 17 ministers in the outgoing government were women.

Prime Minister Antonio Costa announced his resignation on 07 November 2023 after prosecutors said he was under investigation for alleged corruption involving lithium mining and hydrogen projects in the country. On 9 November 2023, the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced dissolution of the parliament and called early elections for 10 March 2024. The announcement followed the Prime Minister’s resignation two days earlier, after it was reported that authorities including the Public Prosecutor’s Office and the Public Security Office searched the official residence of the Prime Minister as well as other ministers and high level state officials for their alleged involvement in a corruption case involving mining and energy concessions.

Costa, who led a majority Socialist government since 2015, said he had a “clear conscience” and “complete trust in justice”, but could not continue as prime minister while facing suspicion of his integrity. He also said he would not run for office again in any future elections. Costa’s resignation triggered a political crisis in Portugal, which had been one of the best-performing economies in Europe, with an expected growth of 2% this year.

The corruption probe was focused on allegations of improper behavior around the development of lithium mining and hydrogen projects in the country, and Costa’s chief of staff, Vitor Escaria, was arrested as police conducted raids on several public buildings and additional properties. Prosecutors also named Infrastructure Minister Joao Galamba as a formal suspect, and issued arrest warrants for the mayor of the town of Sines, where some of the projects were to be located, and two executives at the company Start Campus, tasked with building the hydrogen production project and data centre.

The president, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, could either dissolve the parliament and call for a snap election, or allow the Socialists, who have an absolute majority in the legislature, to form a new government. After the scandal with the resignation of the Prime Minister, Portuguese President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa announced the dissolution of parliament and early elections.

While the PS proposed a new caretaker cabinet without the involvement of Prime Minister Costa that would last until the end of the regular government’s term in 2026, opposition parties were in favor of early elections. Costa continues to govern as Prime Minister until the elections. The parliament was officially dissolved on 15 January, 55 days before holding of the elections, in accordance with the Constitution.

Rebelo de Sousa said 09 November 2023 that the country would hold snap elections on 10 March 2024, the second in as many years. Rebelo de Sousa said that he would only disband parliament, where the Socialist Party holds a majority of seats, after a vote on the budget for 2024. That budget, which includes tax cuts for the middle class, spending on social programmes for the poor, and a 24 percent increase in public spending amid flagging economic growth, was passed by the house on October 31. It must be finally approved by November 29. After meeting with the main political parties and the Council of State, a consultative body, the president said that allowing lawmakers time to pass the budget will help “meet the expectations of many Portuguese”.

The main topics of the campaign were expected to be corruption, healthcare and taxation among others. Several observers anticipate that ongoing judicial proceedings involving top representatives of the government may detract the narrative from important socio-economic policy issues. A number of observers expressed concerns about the potential spread of fake news and misinformation and the fact that no single institution is mandated to oversee the conduct of the campaign on social networks.

Citizens went to the polls 10 March 2024 to elect the 230 deputies of the Assembly of the Republic, which in turn, will elect the Prime Minister, in a day that has developed normally. Main candidates in the legislative elections are Luís Montenegro, the head of the centre-right opposition, Pedro Nuno Santos, the new leader of the Socialist Party, and André Ventura, the founder of an extreme far-right formation. According to several polls, the favorites for the position of prime minister are the conservative Luís Montenegro, leader of the Democratic Socialist Party (PSD), and the leftist Nuno Santos, current leader of the Socialist Party (PS).

On the other hand, André Ventura, founder of the Chega ("Enough Party") in 2019, spreading a populist and anti-establishment message, which has placed him third in recent polls. The ascent of this openly racist party represents a massive shift in Portugal's political landscape. Having secured only 1.3% of votes in the 2019 election, the party was now making headlines as recent polls suggest the party will secure 17% of the vote this year. The party's leader, Andre Ventura, has a notorious history of xenophobic, misogynistic and homophobic comments, as well as performing the fascist salute. In 2020, Ventura told a Black Member of Parliament to "go back to her country of origin." Anticipating the elections will result in parliamentary deadlock, Ventura expressed a desire for a role in the government.

"Voters have lost trust in the [established] parties because they have understood that they only want to stay in power at any cost, even at the cost of uniting with political opponents whose programs are very distant," Dr. Marco Marsili, research fellow at the Institute for Political Studies at the Catholic University of Portugal, told Sputnik, reflecting on the rise of right-wing non-mainstream parties.

Portuguese conservatives outperformed the incumbent Socialist Party, which conceded defeat. The center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) won around 76 seats, while the Eurosceptic right-wing Chega ("Enough" in Portuguese) quadrupled its share of seats from 12 to 48 in the national parliament. Marsili sees Chega as a potential game-changer which was “becoming the third political force in the country.” “This result was easily predictable, in a political landscape shaken by numerous corruption scandals," the academic said.

Issues that dominated the campaign – the rise of immigration, the increase in the cost of living and the corruption around the Socialist Party – aided the success of the conservatives, according to the researcher. The rise of the right in the EU has become a major trend which could influence the forthcoming European Parliament elections.

In Portugal, the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) emerged as the clear winner with 30% of the vote in the recently held parliamentary elections, according to the EFE news agency. The Socialist Party, which had held power for the past eight years, secured second place with 28.8% of the vote. In third place was the right-wing party, Chega, with 19% of the ballot.

With expectations that no single party will achieve an absolute majority, the formation of a coalition government was on the horizon. The right-wing Chega, despite being the third-largest in terms of votes, may hold significant influence in shaping the new government. Following Portugal's last elections in 2002, which resulted in a socialist victory, this recent outcome marks a shift in the country's political landscape.