ANNUAL REPORT TO CONGRESS
Military Power of the People's Republic of China
2008
Military Power of the People's Republic of China
2008
Office of the Secretary of Defense
Military Power of the People's Republic of China
A Report to Congress Pursuant to the National Defense Authorization Act Fiscal Year 2000
Section 1202, “Annual Report on Military Power of the People’s Republic of China,” of the
National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000, Public Law 106-65, provides that
the Secretary of Defense shall submit a report “on the current and future military strategy
of the People’s Republic of China. The report shall address the current and probable future
course of military-technological development on the People’s Liberation Army and the tenets
and probable development of Chinese grand strategy, security strategy, and military strategy,
and of the military organizations and operational concepts, through the next 20 years.”
Executive Summary
China’s rapid rise over recent years as a regional political and economic power with growing global influence is an important element in today’s strategic landscape, one that has significant implications for the region and the world. The United States welcomes the rise of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous China. No country has done more to assist, facilitate, and encourage China’s national development and its integration in the international system. The United States continues to encourage China to participate as a responsible international stakeholder by taking on a greater share of responsibility for the stability, resilience and growth of the global system. However, much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, in particular in the area of its expanding military power and how that power might be used.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is pursuing comprehensive transformation from a mass army designed for protracted wars of attrition on its territory to one capable of fighting and winning shortduration, high intensity conflicts along its periphery against high-tech adversaries – an approach that China refers to as preparing for “local wars under conditions of informatization.” China’s ability to sustain military power at a distance remains limited but, as noted in the 2006 Quadrennial Defense Review Report, it “has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages.”
China’s near-term focus on preparing for contingencies in the Taiwan Strait, including the possibility of U.S. intervention, is an important driver of its modernization. However, analysis of China’s military acquisitions and strategic thinking suggests Beijing is also developing capabilities for use in other contingencies, such as conflict over resources or disputed territories.
The pace and scope of China’s military transformation have increased in recent years, fueled by acquisition of advanced foreign weapons, continued high rates of investment in its domestic defense and science and technology industries, and far reaching organizational and doctrinal reforms of the armed forces. China’s expanding and improving military capabilities are changing East Asian military balances; improvements in China’s strategic capabilities have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region.
China’s nuclear force modernization, as evidence by the fielding of the new DF-31 and DF-31A intercontinental-range missiles, is enhancing China’s strategic strike capabilities. China’s emergent anti-access/area denial capabilities – as exemplified by its continued development of advanced cruise missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles, anti-ship ballistic missiles designed to strike ships at sea, including aircraft carriers, and the January 2007 successful test of a direct-ascent, anti-satellite weapon – are expanding from the land, air, and sea dimensions of the traditional battlefield into the space and cyber-space domains.
The international community has limited knowledge of the motivations, decision-making, and key capabilities supporting China’s military modernization. China’s leaders have yet to explain in detail the purposes and objectives of the PLA’s modernizing military capabilities. For example, China continues to promulgate incomplete defense expenditure figures, and engage in actions that appear inconsistent with its declaratory policies. The lack of transparency in China’s military and security affairs poses risks to stability by increasing the potential for misunderstanding and miscalculation. This situation will naturally and understandably lead to hedging against the unknown.
Table of Contents
Figure List | IV | ||
Glossary of Acronyms | V | ||
Chapter One: Key Developments | 1 | ||
Developments in China’s Grand Strategy, Security Strategy, and Military Strategy | 1 | ||
Developments in China’s Military Forces | 2 | ||
Developments in PLA Military Doctrine | 5 | ||
International Military Exchanges, Exercises, and Interaction | 6 | ||
Efforts to Acquire Advanced Technologies to Enhance China’s Military Capabilities | 6 | ||
Taiwan’s Defense Capabilities and Cross-Strait Stability | 7 | ||
Chapter Two: Understanding China's Strategy | 8 | ||
Overview | 8 | ||
Strategy with Chinese Characteristics | 8 | ||
Insights on China’s Strategy and Priorities | 9 | ||
Factors Shaping Pathways to China’s Future | 13 | ||
Chapter Three: China's Military Strategy and Doctrine | 16 | ||
Overview | 16 | ||
Military Strategic Guidelines | 16 | ||
Toward a Comprehensive View of Warfare | 19 | ||
Secrecy and Deception in PLA Military Strategy | 19 | ||
Asymmetric Warfighting | 20 | ||
Chapter Four: Force Modernization Goals and Trends | 22 | ||
Overview | 22 | ||
Emerging Area Denial/Anti-Access Capabilities | 22 | ||
Strategic Capabilities | 24 | ||
Space and Counterspace | 27 | ||
Power Projection - Modernizing Beyond Taiwan | 29 | ||
Chapter Five: Resources for Force Modernization | 31 | ||
Overview | 31 | ||
Military Expenditure Trends | 31 | ||
China's Advancing Defense Industries | 33 | ||
Foreign Weapons and Technology Acquisition | 38 | ||
Chapter Six: Force Modernization and Security in the Taiwan Strait | 40 | ||
Overview | 40 | ||
China's Strategy in the Taiwan Strait | 41 | ||
Beijing's Courses of Action Against Taiwan | 41 | ||
Special Topic: Human Capital in the PLA Force Modernization | 45 | ||
Overview | 45 | ||
Emphasizing Reform | 45 | ||
Looking to the Future | 48 | ||
Appendix: China and Taiwan Forces Data | 50 |
Figures
1 .China’s Territorial Disputes | 11 |
2. China's Critical Sea Lanes | 12 |
3. The First and Second Island Chains | 25 |
4. Medium and Intercontinental Range Ballistic Missiles | 26 |
5. Regional Conventional Missiles | 30 |
6. Defense Expenditures of the PRC: 1996 - 2007 | 32 |
7. 2007 Military Budgets of China and Regional Powers | 33 |
8. 2003 to 2007: PRC Increase in Modern Systems | 34 |
9. Taiwan Strait SAM and SRBM Coverage | 42 |
10. Taiwan Strait Military Balance, Ground Forces | 50 |
11. Major Ground Force Units | 51 |
12. Taiwan Strait Military Balance, Air Forces | 52 |
13. Major Air Force Units | 53 |
14. Taiwan Strait Military Balance, Naval Forces | 54 |
15. Major Naval Units | 55 |
16. Inventory of PLAAF Surface-to-Air Missile Launchers | 56 |
17. China’s Missile Force | 56 |
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