Self-help books for women vs. men aren’t selling the same story

December 18th, 2025

Self-help books for women vs. men aren’t selling the same story, Rob Henderson notes:

If you walk through the self-help section and compare the books marketed to men with those aimed at women, the contrast is striking. The books for men tend to emphasize stoicism, discipline, and self-sufficiency: become more focused, toughen up, don’t let the world knock you off your path, no one is coming to save you. The message is essentially that you need to strengthen yourself and earn your way forward.

The books for women, by contrast, rarely begin with the idea that you’re lacking something that needs to be built. Instead, the theme is closer to: you’re already great, but you keep getting in your own way. The world hasn’t recognized your value because you haven’t fully accepted it yourself. The promise is that once you stop beating yourself up and embrace who you already are, others will see it too.

Two very different messages — one built around improvement, the other around affirmation.

France acquired a bargaining power out of all proportion to anything to which her early patents entitled her

December 17th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesGeneral Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project) the problem of the French scientists:

The circum­stances that made this possible go back to 1939, when a group of French scientists, working under Joliot’s leadership, had patented a number of inventions that they claimed would provide means for controlling the energy of the uranium atom. They assigned their rights in these patents to the Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, an agency of the French Government.

One of Joliot’s assistants in this work was Hans von Halban. In June of 1940, when France was collapsing under the German onslaught, von Halban had left for England, taking with him the entire French supply of heavy water, a number of scientific papers, and a verbal commission from Joliot to act for the Centre in attempting to obtain the best possible terms to protect future French interests in the atomic field.

[…]

At the same time, the British employed von Halban and three of his associates from the Centre, eventually, as I have said, assigning them to the laboratories of the Tube Alloys Project in Montreal. By 1944, a number of other Centre scientists had left France to join the Free French Provisional Government in Algiers. The French working in the Montreal laboratories maintained contact with their former colleagues in North Africa and, through them, with their former leader, Joliot, who remained in Paris throughout the German occupation.

[…]

Upon his return to London, von Halban was closely questioned by my agents about his discussions with Joliot and it became obvious, as we had expected, that he had not held the conversation within the bounds of any “barest outline.” Vital information relating to our research had been disclosed—information that had been developed by Americans with American money, and that had been given to the British only in accordance with interchange agreements subsidiary to the Quebec Agreement. It confirmed facts that Joliot might have suspected, but which he otherwise could not have known. This information had always been scrupulously regarded as top secret.

[…]

Having effected a breach in the Quebec Agreement, Joliot proceeded to exploit it. He met with the Chancellor in February, 1945, and made it clear to Sir John that, while France had no immediate desire to press the issue, if she were not eventually admitted to full collaboration with the United States and Britain in the project, she would have to turn to Russia.

Thus, France acquired a bargaining power out of all proportion to anything to which her early patents entitled her. She was enabled to play power politics with our accomplishments and to bring, or threaten to bring, Russia into the picture. The United States was forced to sit quietly by while a large measure of the military security that we had gone to such pains to maintain was endangered and prematurely compromised by the actions of other governments over which we had no control.

In May of 1945, the French Government instructed Joliot to begin work on an atomic energy project. Joliot turned to his colleague, Pierre Auger, who had been working in the Montreal laboratories. Anticipating our concern, the British hastened to assure us that Auger would not participate in the actual work, but would limit his activities strictly to putting the French back on the right line if they made any serious errors. While Dr. Chadwick and I were both confident of Auger’s integrity, we realized that naturally his greatest loyalty was to his own country.

[…]

My sole source of satisfaction in this affair came from a remark made by Joliot to an employee of the United States Embassy in Paris: while the British had always been most cordial to him and had given him much information, he said, he got virtually nothing from the Americans he encountered.

This is essentially a subterranean precision strike

December 16th, 2025

Palmer Lucky recently made a bunch of comments about subterranean warfare and everyone snarked, Object Zero notes, all the tools to do it already exist today:

It’s an oil rig of course. But rather a directional drilling rig with a heavy duty derrick and a travelling block suitable for getting the full tensile capacity out of 6-5/8 drill pipe. This already exists.

When you drill an oil well you drill 30ft at a time, every time you drill 30ft, you stop and screw another 30ft length of drill pipe to the drill string and then keep turning to the right.

Oil wells always used to be vertical, but as oil reservoirs are usually pancake shaped drillers figured out how to drill a bend radius in the well so that the well bore could run a long horizontal length through more of the oil reservoir, as this allows more oil to flow into the well (well has more wall area in contact with the oil bearing rock).

These days, a good driller can keep the drill bit within about +/-0.5m of where they want it to be. You can steer the drill “bottom hole assembly” that drills the well using some clever motors and hydraulic signals.

This is essentially a subterranean precision strike. It already exists. It’s like fly by wire, but a mile underground travelling through rock.

Now what about weapons, explosives, munitions, etc. obviously for military applications you want some sort of explosive and the oil industry doesn’t do explosives.

Au contraire, have you heard of perforation guns?

Perforation guns are used on every oil well. Once the well has been drilled you case the walls with steel casing pipe (slide a big pipe into the well to stop the walls collapsing) and then run a production tube into the casing pipe. Production tubing is just another very long steel pipe but one that comes off a coil.

The problem is that oil cannot flow into the well, because the walls are cased with steel casing pipe, so the driller attaches a perforation gun to the bottom of the production tubing and fires the gun in the bottom of the well.

The perforation gun is a long heavy mandrel with 100s of guns all pointing radially. These guns shoot holes in the steel casing pipe so that the well can start to flow. The whole system delivers 100s of armour piecing guns via the subterranean domain.

Maybe Schlumberger is a stealth defence prime?

Anyway, it’s possible to drill your well maybe a mile deep then to turn horizontal and drill many many miles toward some target (10 miles is the record for commercial applications, but a lot more is possible before you hit technical maximums).

You can then steer the drill bit back up toward the surface and even out of the ground, delivering a 30ft rod that pierces up out of the ground and blasts 100s of armour piercing rounds in a 360 degree zone from ground level to 30ft elevation.

Think how scary this would be (I’ll post a video below).

Delivering perf guns via a surfacing long horizontal leg seems like a certain way to level a building including heavily reinforced or bunkered facilities.

This is all doable today, it’s just expensive compared to other options.

Militant, at any event, after the armistice

December 15th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesItalian scientific research and development, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), had been generally disorganized and was almost militant in its resistance to the Fascist state — militant, at any event, after the armistice:

Both Wick and Amaldi had served in the Italian Army and since the surrender had been hiding in Rome. During the war they had engaged in theoretical research principally on isotope separation, neutron, infrared and cosmic rays. They had no direct information about German research in the field of nuclear fission, for they had never been asked to do any work with or for the Germans. They claimed not to understand the significance of heavy water, and they were not aware of any new activity at the Joachimsthal uranium mines in Czechoslovakia.

Wick had made a trip into Germany during June and July of 1942, and had seen and talked at some length with a number of German physicists at that time and, together with Amaldi, had been shown some of the correspondence between various German scientists; thus they were able to supply us with some useful information. They were most co-operative, and what they gave us was the basis for the compilation of brief accounts of the activities and locations of a number of Germans who were of outstanding interest to the MED. Although later investigations in Germany proved that some of the information obtained in Rome was not wholly accurate, in the main it was well worth the trouble we had gone to in collecting it.

[…]

Throughout the European campaign, as far as atomic efforts were concerned, Alsos members had the tremendous advantage of knowing where they were going and whom and what they were seeking. When they landed on the Continent, they had in hand the fruits of Calvert’s labors, in the form of a comprehensive list of intelligence “targets” — the names of key individuals, where they worked and where they lived; and the location of the laboratories, workshops and storage points, and other items of interest to us. At the head of the list was the famous French atomic scientist, Frederic Joliot-Curie (later High Commissioner of Atomic Energy for France), and his equally famous wife, Irene Curie, the daughter of Madame Curie, discoverer of radium.

[…]

On August 25, they reached Paris, at the Porte d’Orleans, ahead of the French troops, and waited there for about half an hour until General LeClerc arrived with his armored division. The General led the triumphal entry, at 8:55 that morning, but tucked into the column, directly behind the first tank was an American jeep containing the first representatives of the U.S. Army: Pash, Calvert and two other Alsos agents.

[…]

There, on the steps of the university, they found Joliot and some of his staff, all wearing FFI arm bands. That evening they celebrated the liberation with Joliot by drinking some champagne he had reserved for the occasion. The American soldier’s staff of life, the K ration, served as the hors d’oeuvres. In keeping with the scientific surroundings, the champagne was drunk from laboratory beakers.

In the course of their conversation with Joliot, the names of two of his former colleagues came up: Hans von Halban, born an Austrian in Leipzig and later naturalized as a French citizen, and Lew Kowarski. Both men had left France for England in June of 1940 and had been working in the British Tube Alloys Project in Canada. Joliot immediately surmised that there was some connection between them, Pash and Calvert, and the uranium problem.

They did not openly tell him at first what they wanted of him. However, after an hour’s conversation, Joliot willingly told them just what they wanted to hear: that it was his sincere belief that the Germans had made very little progress on uranium and they were not remotely close to making an atomic bomb. He said he had refused to perform any war work for the Nazis and had forbidden them to use his laboratories for such purposes. However, after the occupation commenced, he said he did allow two German scientists to move into his laboratory to continue academic work on nuclear physics. He added that he talked with them frequently and clandestinely checked their work at night after the laboratory was closed, thus keeping constant surveillance on their activity. How true this all was we never knew.

[…]

The College of France, which was Joliot’s laboratory, owned a cyclotron, and a number of German scientists of interest to the MED had spent varying lengths of time there operating it. Among them was Professor Erich Schumann, who headed the German Army Research conducted by the Ordnance Department and who, during the war, served as the personal adviser on scientific research to Field Marshal Wilhelm Keitel. Schumann was credited with initiating work on the German uranium project, although by the end of 1942 his responsibilities had been transferred to the Reich’s Research Council.

Another visitor to Joliot’s laboratory was Dr. Kurt Diebner, who in 1939 had served as Schumann’s right-hand man and who had continued nuclear research under the Reich’s Research Council. Then there was Professor Walther Bothe, an outstanding German nuclear experimentalist in the physics laboratory of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute for Medical Research. Dr. Abraham Essau, who until early 1944 was in charge of physics under the German Ministry of Education in the Reich’s Research Council, had made a number of visits to Paris. Essau had been president of the Ministry’s Bureau of Standards until January, 1944, when he was replaced as Plenipotentiary for Nuclear Physics by Walther Gerlach. There was also Dr. Wolfgang Gertner, an able German scientist who, before the war, had been associated with Ernest Lawrence in the United States. Gertner was an outstanding German authority on cyclotron operations. Joliot’s other visitors had included Dr. Erich Bagge, a member of the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute, who specialized in isotope separation, and Dr. Werner Maurer, an experimental physicist engaged in nuclear research.

Joliot consistently maintained that he had acquiesced in the Germans’ use of the cyclotron with the distinct understanding that its use would not be of direct military assistance to their war effort. There was no independent evidence that this condition was made. There may have been a promise made to him by some of the German scientists, or they may have said that there appeared to be no military possibilities that could result from the use of the cyclotron, but I never found any real proof of Joliot’s contention. Certainly, his subsequent behavior — and I shall come to that shortly — gave us room for doubt.

[…]

The most difficult problem that Calvert’s intelligence group had to tackle was to find out where Hitler was hiding his atomic scientists. They knew, as everyone did, that before the war the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute in Berlin had been a focal point for all atomic physicists and atomic research, not only in Germany, but in all of Europe. It was there that Otto Hahn and Fritz Strassman had carried out their startling experiments. It was also the home of Max Planck, the internationally famous atomic scientist.

As the war drew on, however, and the bombing of Berlin was stepped up, we had learned from both aerial reconnaissance and a Berlin scientist, who got word to us through the Norwegian underground, that research on uranium had been moved, presumably to a safer location, but where he did not know.

[…]

The first information had trickled through in the summer of 1943. It seemed so innocuous that we did not appreciate its full import until much later. It was in the form of a report from an ungraded1 Swiss informant, received by the British Secret Intelligence, stating that a certain Swiss scientist, who was allegedly pro-Nazi, was aiding in the development of an explosive a thousand times more powerful than TNT. His experiments and research were being conducted in the greatest of secrecy in an unused spinning mill in Bisingen, Germany. Inasmuch as Allied Intelligence was receiving hundreds of reports of this nature daily, and coupled with the absence from this one of any telltale words or phrases, such as uranium, atoms, heavy water, cyclotrons or the like, Calvert catalogued this item but did not attach immediate importance to it.

Next, in the fall of 1943, American censorship had intercepted a letter from a prisoner of war in which he mentioned that he was working in a “research laboratory numbered ‘D.’” The letter was postmarked Hechingen, Germany, which is three miles north of Bisingen, in the Black Forest region of Germany, where many secret German projects had been moved. But again the report was so scanty that one could hardly assume that Germany’s atomic research was being carried on in these outwardly sleepy little villages.

It.was not until the spring of 1944 that Calvert received his first solid information. Then the OSS reported from Berne, Switzerland, that a Swiss scientist and professor had said that Dr. Werner Heisenberg, an internationally famous nuclear physicist and one of Germany’s top atomic scientists—if not the top—was living near Hechingen. We knew from other intelligence that Heisenberg was working on the uranium problem. With this new bit of information, Calvert knew that he had found the hiding place of Hitler’s top atomic scientists.

[…]

Calvert’s next big problem was to try to penetrate the area. To do that he would have to get somebody who knew it extremely well. British Intelligence located a vicar living in England who before the war had been Vicar of Bisingen. He was able to pinpoint and identify buildings and factories for us. He also pointed out buildings that had housed spinning mills.

At the same time Calvert sent a very reliable and able OSS agent, Moe Berg, the former catcher of the Washington Senators and Boston Red Sox, and a master of seven foreign languages, into Switzerland to prepare for a surreptitious entry into the Hechin-gen-Bisingen area. While Berg was in Switzerland, he picked up additional information and, passing himself off as a Swiss student, even attended a lecture given by Heisenberg, who had been granted permission to travel outside Germany to deliver this one speech. When I heard of Calvert’s plan for Berg to go into the Hechingen-Bisingen area, I immediately stopped it, realizing that if he were captured, the Nazis might be able to extract far more information about our project than we could ever hope to obtain if he were successful.

[…]

Starting in July, Calvert put the Bisingen-Hechingen area under constant air-photo surveillance. The pilots who flew these missions were never told of the nature of the suspected targets, lest they be interrogated in the event of a crash landing. At first our aerial reconnaissance produced nothing new. Then in the fall of 1944, we had our biggest scare to date. After one aerial sortie it was observed that near the town of Bisingen a number of slave labor camps had been erected with incredible speed. Ground had been broken and a complex of industrial sites had mushroomed within a period of two weeks. Railroad spurs had been constructed; mountains of materials had been moved in; power lines had been erected; and there was every indication that something was being built that commanded the utmost priority. Aerial interpreters, intelligence officers, our own technicians and scientists were all baffled after studying the photographs. Nobody could offer any sensible explanation of this new construction. All we knew was that throughout the past year we had been getting reports that this area was housing Germany’s top atomic scientists. The only thing upon which we could all agree was that whatever the construction was, it was unique. Naturally the first question that came to our minds was whether this was the start of Germany’s “Oak Ridge.” If it was, we did not want to bomb it immediately, since that would only drive the project underground and we would run the risk of not finding it again in time. Yet we could not let construction progress too far, particularly since this was just at the time when it was thought that the Germans might withdraw to the Black Forest and make it a redoubt area. Fortunately our anxiety was short-lived, and the fear of a German atomic plant was dissipated almost as quickly as it had arisen, when some British mining experts recognized that what we had been observing so closely was nothing more than a new form of shale-oil-cracking plant.

[…]

Before the war, when Union Miniere was the world’s leading supplier of uranium and radium, a number of German firms had purchased uranium products for normal peacetime uses, as well as for retrading purposes. The shipments involved in such transactions normally consisted of less than a ton per month of assorted refined materials, but since June, 1940, orders from a number of German companies had increased spectacularly.

A preliminary study conducted by Union Miniere indicated that a quantity of material was still in Belgium. Part of it was ready for shipment, but probably had not yet been removed. When I learned of this, I immediately sent Furman back to Europe with instructions to locate and secure the material. He and Pash conferred with General Bedell Smith, who arranged for the British 21st Army Group to support Alsos in its recovery operations, without revealing to the British the name or purpose of the material being sought. The area where they expected the ore to be was then in the front lines of the British sector and under light sniper fire. Pash and two of his agents hunted for it from September 19 to 25 before they finally found it. The captured ores amounted to sixty-eight tons, which were placed under joint American and British control and removed from Belgium to the United States by way of England.

Information obtained in Belgium led to further investigations in Eindhoven, near Antwerp, where we learned that in May of 1940, nine cars containing approximately seventy-two tons of uranium ores had been shipped out to Le Havre, France, ahead of the German invasion. Apparently, the Germans had seized two of the nine carloads at Le Havre, while the remainder were rerouted to Bordeaux. I instructed Alsos to obtain clearance from Supreme Headquarters, and then to locate this material and secure as much of it as possible. Pash and Calvert concentrated at first on an area in the vicinity of Perigueux, France, and finally in early October expanded their search to include much of southwestern and southern France. They were greatly hindered in their search by the presence of several thousand German troops, who had been cut off south of the Loire River by the Seventh Army. Eventually, they found thirty tons of the missing ore in Toulouse, but the remaining forty-two tons eluded us.

Calvert had by then determined where almost all of the Union Miniere ore in Germany was located and asked permission to make plans to go behind the German lines to get it. I denied his request, for I thought that any such attempt would be doomed to failure, and, what was more important, it would alert the Germans to the fact that we considered the ore to be of such value that we would take great risks to obtain it.

[…]

This operation at Strasbourg was by far the most successful that Alsos had conducted up to that time. The information gained there indicated quite definitely that Hitler had been apprised in 1942 of the possibilities of a nuclear weapon. Nevertheless, all evidence from Strasbourg clearly pointed to the fact that, as of the latter part of 1944, the enemy’s efforts to develop a bomb were still in the experimental stages, and greatly increased our belief that there was little probability of any sudden nuclear surprise from Germany.

Virtually his only critics were Pinker, Judge Richard Posner, and Steve Sailer

December 14th, 2025

It’s bizarre to think back to how intellectually prestigious Malcolm Gladwell was in the first decade of this century, Steve Sailer notes:

Virtually his only critics were Pinker, Judge Richard Posner, and myself.

I actually was moderately sympathetic to Gladwell because I bothered to understand his strengths and weaknesses.

The key to understanding Gladwell is to grasp that he is essentially a public relations professional of the kind that research universities employ to write press releases to make their professors’ academic papers more understandable to the upper middlebrow general audience. But Malcolm had somehow lucked into doing the same thing — punching up academic studies — for The New Yorker.

As I’ve pointed out several times, academic PR is a useful and honorable trade. I’ve frequently quoted PR specialists’ press releases about new papers rather than the original paper in a scholarly journal because the PR pro has emphasized the study’s most interesting finding, found vivid examples, added a little human interest, and otherwise provided amiable helps for us non-specialists. And he has the professor read it over before he sends it out to make sure he didn’t get anything too wrong.

The job is a little like being a trial lawyer in that you are supposed to make the best case for your client (in this case, the professor). But it’s less demanding because the other side isn’t employing a lawyer also trying to win the debate for his client.

Malcolm was extremely good at taking an academic’s technical research and polishing it up to be comprehensible and appealing to New Yorker subscribers.

Their best prospects lay in the use of plutonium

December 13th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIt had begun to seem possible early in 1943, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), that the Germans could have progressed to the point where they might be able to use atomic bombs against us, or, more likely, against England:

Although this possibility seemed extremely remote to me, a number of the senior scientists in the project disagreed. One even went so far as to urge that I should warn the American people in an official broadcast that the United States might be hit by an atomic bomb. Naturally, I was opposed to doing any such thing. What I thought more likely was that the Germans would use an ordinary explosive bomb containing radioactive material. If we were unable to neutralize the effects of such a weapon promptly, a major panic could easily sweep through the Allied countries.

However, as the plans for the invasion of Europe began to take form, we considered very seriously indeed the possibility that the Germans might lay down some kind of radioactive barrier along the invasion routes. We could not calculate with any certainty the likelihood of their doing this, for we were truly in the dark then about their progress in atomic development. It had always seemed to most of us that their best prospects lay in the use of plutonium, which would demand a much smaller industrial effort as well as considerably less in the way of time, critical equipment and materials than any other method—provided they were willing to ignore safety precautions. This I felt the Germans would do, for considering what we already knew of their treatment of their Jewish minority, we could only assume they would not hesitate to expose these same citizens to excessive radiation. Hitler and his ardent supporters, we felt, would consider this a proper use for an “inferior” group, quite apart from the saving in effort and materials and time. Moreover, we knew that in the course of developing the plutonium process the Germans were certain to discover that tremendous quantities of highly radioactive fission products would be produced in their reactors. It would be perfectly natural for them to think of using these to lay down a barrier through which ground troops could not pass without disastrous results.

At the request of the Military Policy Committee, a three-man group, Conant, Compton and Urey, assisted by other project members, had made a study of radioactive poisoning; and on the basis of their report we had ordered a supply of portable Geiger counters and were training a number of our personnel to use them.

[…]

The Chief Surgeon, Major General Paul R. Hawley, issued two cover orders designed to insure that GHQ would be promptly alerted if the Germans did resort to radioactive warfare, but worded in such a way as to disguise the real nature of the danger. One order said that trouble had been experienced with fogging (which always results when film is exposed to radiation) on certain photographic and X-ray films and that if any such trouble was noted by troops in the field, an immediate report should be made, citing lot numbers, so that defective film could be withdrawn from use.

After 50 Years, MIT Chemists Finally Synthesize Elusive Anti-Cancer Compound

December 12th, 2025

MIT chemists have, for the first time, successfully created in the laboratory a fungal molecule called verticillin A, which was first discovered more than 50 years ago and has been recognized for its potential as an anticancer agent:

Researchers first reported the isolation of verticillin A from fungi, which use it for protection against pathogens, in 1970. Verticillin A and related fungal compounds have drawn interest for their potential anticancer and antimicrobial activity, but their complexity has made them difficult to synthesize.

In 2009, Movassaghi’s lab reported the synthesis of (+)-11,11?-dideoxyverticillin A, a fungal compound similar to verticillin A. That molecule has 10 rings and eight stereogenic centers, or carbon atoms that have four different chemical groups attached to them. These groups have to be attached in a way that ensures they have the correct orientation, or stereochemistry, with respect to the rest of the molecule.

Once that synthesis was achieved, however, synthesis of verticillin A remained challenging, even though the only difference between verticillin A and (+)-11,11?-dideoxyverticillin A is the presence of two oxygen atoms.

[…]

“What we learned was the timing of the events is absolutely critical. We had to significantly change the order of the bond-forming events,” Movassaghi says.

The verticillin A synthesis begins with an amino acid derivative known as beta-hydroxytryptophan, and then step-by-step, the researchers add a variety of chemical functional groups, including alcohols, ketones, and amides, in a way that ensures the correct stereochemistry.

[…]

Once the researchers had successfully completed the synthesis, they were also able to tweak it to generate derivates of verticillin A. Researchers at Dana-Farber then tested these compounds against several types of diffuse midline glioma (DMG), a rare brain tumor that has few treatment options.

The researchers found that the DMG cell lines most susceptible to these compounds were those that have high levels of a protein called EZHIP. This protein, which plays a role in the methylation of DNA, has been previously identified as a potential drug target for DMG.

[…]

The verticillin derivatives appear to interact with EZHIP in a way that increases DNA methylation, which induces the cancer cells to under programmed cell death. The compounds that were most successful at killing these cells were N-sulfonylated (+)-11,11?-dideoxyverticillin A and N-sulfonylated verticillin A. N-sulfonylation — the addition of a functional group containing sulfur and oxygen — makes the molecules more stable.

It would take a combination of three requisite factors to make a bomb

December 11th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesGeneral Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), that in making his initial appraisal of the German atomic picture, Captain Horace K. Calvert knew it would take a combination of three requisite factors to make a bomb:

Those were: (1) a sufficient number of top nuclear scientists and technical assistants; (2) the basic fuel for a bomb—uranium, and possibly thorium, probably combined with uranium; and (3) laboratories to develop it and industrial means to make it.

He started working on the fuel problem first, for we were sure of Germany’s scientific and industrial ability to do the job. Thorium seemed out of the question, since it is mined chiefly in Brazil and India and, because of embargoes, Germany had been unable to import any since the war began, and had had only insignificant stocks on hand before the war. The basic fuel was thought to be uranium. Considering our own firsthand knowledge of the enormous industrial effort required to produce U-235, we were confident that we would have seen evidences of any such program had one existed. It seemed more likely that they would use plutonium. That they had enough to launch an atomic program seemed to be within the realm of possibility, for we knew there had been a large stockpile of refined uranium ore at Oolen, Belgium, a few miles outside Brussels, which originally had been the property of Union Miniere.

The only other possible supply of uranium was the mines at Joachimsthal, Czechoslovakia, which was not a particularly significant source. Most of this ore was shipped to a uranium plant outside Berlin, the Auer-Gesellschaft. British Intelligence kept in touch with the activities of these mines, and in July, 1944, Calvert’s group started periodic aerial surveillance over the entire mining area, studying the pictures in detail for new shafts and aboveground activity. Tailing piles from each mine were microscopically measured from one reconnaissance to the next. By knowing the general grade of the ore and measuring the piles, we could determine with some degree of accuracy the mine’s daily production. There were no signs of extraordinary activity.

It would have been imperative for Hitler to enlist the aid of all his top scientists. Allied Intelligence had established that many of them were working on the “V” weapon; particularly at Peenemiinde, but to our knowledge no nuclear physicists had been reported there. Calvert started a search for some fifty German nuclear scientists. He knew that there must be many young scientists who had come up since Hitler’s rise to power of whom we had no knowledge; however, if we could locate a few of the top people, they should lead us to the rest. All the present and back issues of the German physics journals were scrutinized. Foreign-born nuclear scientists in the United States, like Enrico Fermi, O. R. Frisch and Niels Bohr, as well as anti-Nazi professors and scientists in Switzerland, Sweden and other neutral countries, were questioned in detail to obtain any past or present information they might have on the whereabouts of the German scientists. The names of all German scientists were placed on watch lists with American and British intelligence agencies which were daily scanning German newspapers that had been smuggled out. Before long we had recent addresses for a majority of the scientists in whom we were interested.

The third main category of pre-D-Day investigation, laboratories and industrial plants, was studied in much the same way. Lists were compiled of all of the precious metal refineries, the physics laboratories, the handlers of uranium and thorium, manufacturers of centrifugal and reciprocating pumps, power plants and other such installations as were known to exist in the Axis countries. These were placed on a master list from which they were not removed until we had positive information that they were not engaged in, or supplying, an atomic program. All plants where work of an unknown nature was being conducted were checked through aerial reconnaissance, the underground, OSS and all the numerous intelligence agencies.

A critical problem is one that people are willing to pay a considerable price to have solved

December 10th, 2025

Politics is nothing but an ocean of hyperbole, Bryan Caplan reminds us, as he cites this passage from Edward Banfield‘s 1974 classic, The Unheavenly City Revisited:

A great part of the wealth of our country is in the cities. When a mayor says that his city is on the verge of bankruptcy, he means that when the time comes to run for reelection he wants to be able to claim credit for straightening out a mess that was left to him by his predecessor. What he means when he says that his city must have state or federal aid to finance some improvements is (1) the taxpayers of the city (or some important group of them) would rather go without the improvements than pay for it themselves); or (2) although they would pay for it themselves if they had to, they would much prefer to have some other taxpayers pay for it. Rarely if ever does a mayor who makes such a statement mean (1) that for the city to pay for the improvement would necessarily force some taxpayers into poverty; or (2) that the city could not raise the money even if it were willing to force some of its taxpayers into poverty. In short, the “revenue crisis” mainly reflects the fact that people hate to pay taxes and that they think that by crying poverty they can shift some of the bill to someone else.

[…]

That we have not yet been willing to pay the price of solving, or alleviating such “problems” even when the price is a very small one suggests that they are not really critical. Indeed, one might say that, by definition, a critical problem is one that people are willing to pay a considerable price to have solved.

120 kilograms of heavy water were being delivered to the Nazis each month

December 9th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesWe did not make any appreciable effort during the war, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), to secure information on atomic developments in Japan:

First, and most important, there was not even the remotest possibility that Japan had enough uranium or uranium ore to produce the necessary materials for a nuclear weapon. Also the industrial effort that would be required far exceeded what Japan was capable of. Then, too, discussions with our atomic physicists at Berkeley, who knew the leading Japanese atomic physicists personally, led us to the conclusion that their qualified people were altogether too few in number for them to produce an effective weapon in the foreseeable future. Finally, it would have been extremely difficult for us to secure and to get out of Japan any information of the type we needed.

[…]

Positive support for our reasoning that the Germans were vitally interested in atomic energy had come from Norway, where before the war, in the town of Rjukan, about seventy-five miles west of Oslo, the Norwegians had constructed a complex of hydroelectric and electrochemical plants. When the Nazis occupied the country in 1940, they had required the operators of the Rjukan works to enter into contracts to produce heavy water which was to be shipped to Berlin for experimental use in the development of atomic energy. In September of 1942 we had estimated that approximately 120 kilograms of heavy water were being delivered to the Nazis each month under the terms of this contract.

[…]

The first attempt to put these works out of commission involved the use of guerrilla forces. Some five months after my request, three Norwegians, especially trained in sabotage techniques, and wearing British uniforms, parachuted into Norway, where they were met by local guerrillas. After nearly a week of hard cross-country skiing, they arrived at Rjukan and attacked the factories there on February 27, 1943.

The first reports on this action were most encouraging. A news dispatch from Oslo, which was relayed to Stockholm, stated that damage was “not extensive except at the place where the attempt was made and there the devastation was total.” Subsequent reports from Sweden were even more encouraging, calling this “one of the most important and successful undertakings the Allied saboteurs have carried out as yet during the war.”

These same Swedish newspapers caused me some headaches when they went on to speculate at considerable length about the importance of heavy water, pointing out that “many scientists have pinned their hopes of producing the ‘secret weapon’ upon heavy water, namely an explosive of hitherto unheard-of-violence.” These items were picked up by the London papers and finally, on April 4, 1943, New York readers were greeted by such headlines as “Nazi ‘Heavy Water’ Looms as Weapon.” Immediately, Dr. Harold Urey, who had discovered heavy water, was deluged with calls from reporters wanting more information. He neatly sidestepped all such inquiries with the statement that “So far as I know, heavy water’s uses are confined solely to experimental biology. I have never heard of an industrial application for heavy water, and know of no way it can be used for explosives.”

Meanwhile, the British were hard at work assessing the damage done to the Rjukan works in the February raid. Their first estimates indicated that heavy-water production had been set back by about two years. We had different information, but our suspicions were not confirmed until we learned definitely that the plant had resumed partial operations in April. Yet doubt can be contagious and, under our gentle prodding, Sir John Dill soon felt himself compelled to inform General Marshall that a more realistic appraisal of the damage indicated that the plant could be completely restored in about twelve months. After some discussion of launching another commando raid—a full-scale one this time—General Marshall, at my behest, proposed to Sir John Dill that, instead, the plants be made a first priority bombing objective. This proposal led ultimately to a massive air attack on Rjukan in November of 1943. Although this mission in itself was not particularly destructive, it apparently led the Germans to believe that more attacks would follow. This belief, together with the problem of constant sabotage by workers in the plants, and probably a lack of appreciation at high government levels of the possible value of the product, caused the Nazis to give up their attempts to repair the damage done by the saboteurs in February. All apparatus, catalyzers and concentrates used in the production of heavy water were ordered shipped to Berlin. Norwegian guerrillas interfered with every step of the transfer, successfully destroying much valuable equipment and even going so far as to sink the ferry which carried a large part of the heavy water.

We just want every child to reach their full potential

December 8th, 2025

Freddie deBoer is exasperated with anti-hereditarians who talk as though Blank-Slatism is some reviled niche perspective, when in fact the blank slate represents the bipartisan and cross-ideological assumption that has dominated debate in education policy since before he was born:

Perhaps the reason I am so regularly exasperated with people like Hoel or Eric Turkheimer or any number of others in this conversation is because I have been marinated in the ed policy world for a long, long time, and in that world there is no debate at all: every child is capable of any academic outcome. There is no limit to what education can do. Go to your average charter school conference and the idea that individual students have any inherent or intrinsic academic tendency isn’t just unpopular, it will get you shouted out of the room. Try being a public school teacher of a 25th percentile student, telling his parents that it’s not realistic to hope to turn him into a 90th percentile student, and see how that goes for you professionally. Even if you can get people to concede that our goal shouldn’t be equality of educational outcomes, or even that students perhaps don’t all have perfectly equal potentials, such concessions will remain in the realm of the vague and the general.

(When I ask people if they think we should try to establish summative educational equality of outcomes, they say of course not, that’s a straw man, we just want every child to reach their full potential. When I ask if they think it would be alright if, say, 15% of students were a full standard deviation or more below the mean, they say that’s outrageous, we should never condone that level of failure! And it’s like, guys….)

The two most important American educational bills in the 21st century have been No Child Left Behind (bipartisan, signed by a Republican president) and the Every Student Succeeds Act (bipartisan, signed by a Democratic president). Those names are not coincidental or empty; they express exactly what the politicians who drafted them believed was possible. They reflect a cross-ideological and remarkably durable assumption in our education politics that all students can be pushed through the college-to-affluence pipeline. I wish people on the genetics research side of this debate would stop talking as though there’s some rigid hereditarian consensus when, in the ed policy world, there is in fact the exact opposite.

It was difficult to arrive at a proper price

December 7th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesIt was difficult to arrive at a proper price, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project), for uranium ore:

By this time it was certain that the material was of immense value to the United States, provided the bomb worked. To the seller it was of great potential value if atomic energy should prove to have either military or peacetime value. Otherwise, it was worth only the value of its radium content. And if our reactor theories were sound, the radium would lose most of its value since radioactive cobalt could largely replace it.

It did have one definite value and that was what it cost to produce. Yet even this was difficult to establish fairly, for the unit production cost was much less at Shinkolobwe than in Canada or on the Colorado Plateau. Its value had never been determined in the open market and now there was only one purchaser and one seller.

As a Belgian, Sengier appreciated fully the absolute necessity of an Allied victory. It was his broad, statesman-like attitude that made it possible for us to reach an agreement satisfactory to all.

It was a distinct pleasure for me after the war to recommend the award of the Medal of Merit, the highest civilian award made by our government, to Edgar Sengier for his great services to the United States, to Belgium and the free world in making available to us adequate supplies of Belgian Congo uranium. It was also my pleasure to present this award at a ceremony in my office in Washington. Security restrictions had not yet been lifted on this phase of the MED operations and the ceremony was private and unpublicized. It has always been a source of regret to me that Sengier’s services, and particularly his foresight, could not receive full public recognition at the time.

A cruise ship the size of a country

December 6th, 2025

On his way to India last year, Bryan Caplan connected through Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and toured its sister-city, Dubai, too. He shares his reflections on the United Arab Emirates:

In cleanliness and crime, UAE rivals Japan.

[…]

The key ingredient of Emirati success: 88% of UAE’s population is foreign-born. That’s the highest share of any country on Earth.

[…]

I chatted with workers from both Zimbabwe and Sierra Leone. Yes, would-be migrant workers face a government approval process, so the border is not 100% open. But if you want to work hard to make a better life for yourself, your prospects of landing a work visa are decent no matter how humble your credentials.

Abu Dhabi and Dubai are living proof that Michael Clemens’ “Trillion Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk” is literal truth. Both cities look like Coruscant from Star Wars. They are absolute marvels: Gleaming cities of the future where humanity gathers to produce massive wealth. And without mass immigration, almost none of this could have been built!

[…]

In a country where everyone is rich, rich people would have to hire other rich people to clean their homes, cook their food, and watch their kids. In a nativist UAE, the only way to get good value for your money would be to leave the country!

[…]

A typical demagogue would have objected, “We don’t want to become a minority in our own homeland,” but Zayed boldly forged ahead — and created a cruise ship the size of a country. Since 1971, UAE’s population has grown from 280K people to 9.5 million. A miraculous multiple of 34x.

[…]

Most observers glowingly describe UAE’s overflowing welfare state. In a sense, they’re right.

[…]

In a more important sense, however, the UAE’s welfare state is admirably austere, because these lavish benefits are limited to Emirati citizens — and these citizens are a tiny minority of the population. If 88% of the residents of Sweden were ineligible for redistribution, no one would call it “a generous welfare state” — no matter how high the benefits for the remaining 12% happened to be.

[…]

Instead, the UAE has decisively Westernized two initially un-Western populations: native Arab Muslims and Third World migrants. How? By creating an economy dominated by Westernized multinationals. Though the Western population is low, their “soft power” has slowly but surely taken over the soul of the UAE. Verily, Western culture is a hardy weed.

[…]

“What about businesses withholding their workers’ passports?” That’s now illegal, and locals tell me the new law is well-enforced. But either way, it’s a rounding error. Foreign workers have phones, so what do you think they tell their friends and family back home? “Don’t come; they’ll confiscate your passport”? Or, “Definitely come; in five years you’ll return a rich man”?

Ponder this: If a foreigner causes problems in the UAE, the standard punishment is deportation. So how dire could the problem of withholding passports have ever been? The main function of the new UAE law is not to protect foreign workers from employers but to protect the UAE’s reputation from international muckrackers.

Small slide rules emerged from several coat pockets

December 5th, 2025

Now It Can Be Told by Leslie M. GrovesProblems at Los Alamos included those that can always be expected to arise in any isolated community, General Groves explains (in Now It Can Be Told: The Story of the Manhattan Project):

They were aggravated by the fact that the two dominant sectors of the group were composed of people of almost directly opposite backgrounds: scientists with little experience outside the academic field; and uniformed members of the armed services, nearly all nonprofessionals, who had little experience in, or liking for, the academic life and who were interested simply in bringing the war to a quick and successful end.

There was always some undercurrent of feeling between small segments of these two groups, though Oppenheimer, Parsons, Tyler and Ashbridge made every effort to bring them together. On social occasions, for instance, they included both civilian and military personnel. On one evening at least, it was a notable success.

This was a dinner given by Tyler and his wife, soon after their arrival at Los Alamos. Shortly before, an item had appeared in a daily column syndicated in several Eastern newspapers advancing the theory that if one wished to expedite the freezing of ice cubes in a refrigerator he might do so by filling the ice trays with boiling hot water. In a casual way, the hostess mentioned the item, and wondered whether any of the guests knew whether the freezing of water could, indeed, be hastened in this way. Any qualms she might have felt about a topic of conversation that would absorb the interest of the leading physicists of the United States were now dispelled. One highly eminent scientist stated that the proposal was a ridiculous one. Another said that the theory was quite possibly true. Small slide rules emerged from several coat pockets; pencils and pads of paper were requested; there were heated arguments in which some of the military guests with engineering background joined, as did some of the scientists’ wives, while others looked quietly resigned, as if they had many times endured similar scenes. There is no record that any agreement was finally reached; but later it was rumored that several participants in the discussion hurried home and conducted experiments in their own refrigerators.

Physicists remain divided on the effect‘s reproducibility, precise definition, and underlying mechanisms.

It’s living proof that “trillion dollar bills on the sidewalk” is not silly blackboard economics

December 4th, 2025

Bryan Caplan argues that the so-called “cultural costs” of immigration would have to be astronomical to outweigh the tens of trillions of dollars of gains we’re forfeiting every year from restricting it:

And they’re clearly not. If natives really cared so much about their cultures, they would be migrating en masse to low-immigration areas of their countries. They aren’t.

[…]

Since they almost never do, we should infer that their cultural attachment is weak.

This first comment, from Torches Together, offers a British perspective:

The first point seems incredibly poorly thought through.

People very clearly do move away from high-immigration neighbourhoods! This is well documented in the UK and France at the population level.

White Britons tend to move to majority-white (95%+) areas in their 30s when having kids.

We also see macro-level shifts in the classic “white flight” cases: Bradford, Saint-Denis, Southall, Blackburn, Tower Hamlets. Entire neighbourhoods that were 99% White in the 1950s are now over 90% minority.

And the answer to the question “Why don’t people move across the country?” is already in the preceding paragraph. “Somewheres” are defined by attachment to place, not race or nation or ethnicity. If you’re from south London and you’re uneasy about the pace or nature of demographic change, your options typically look like:

1) Stay put – keep your attachment to place, with less attachment to the area’s shifting ethnic profile. Quite common.; 2) Move nearby to somewhere whiter but still kinda “your area” (Essex is the classic example) – also common. 3) Move across the country to somewhere 99+% white – this is less common because you have no attachments there!

Living near productive people is attractive to other productive people and to parasites.

Bryan offers the straightforward economic solution no one seems to consider:

If the problem is negative externalities, then the usual Pigovian logic applies: Governments should measure these negative externalities — remembering to subtract any positive externalities — then impose an immigration tax of equal magnitude. Anyone who pays the tax gets in.

A tax on work visas would resolve many issues — as would stricter enforcement of ordinary laws:

I keep “gushing” [about the United Arab Emirates] because it’s living proof that “trillion dollar bills on the sidewalk” is not silly blackboard economics. Emirates is a cruise ship the size of a country, where the world’s poorest and richest come together for the betterment of both. The West is demonstrably missing a golden opportunity to enrich their citizens and humanity by tens of trillions of dollars.

The US lacks the will to enforce the rules that would make mass immigration feasible.