Year End Calculus
With mere hours left in 2025, we wanted to post our annual note to illustrate how the year-end totals are accounted for and how best to compare this year to years past.
Past year-end totals reflected on this site account for resolved death investigations, found bodies, and late passings that can and will occur for many years after the clock strikes midnight on Jan 1st. We apply those incidents toward the time and date of occurrence, not the time and date of death. Other agencies, such as the CPD, choose to add those resolved death investigations, found bodies, and late passings to the year in which the death was recorded.
Looking back at 2024, when the clock struck midnight on January 1st, 2025, the final totals for 2024 were:
Shot & Killed: 538
Shot & Wounded: 2,444
Total Shot: 2,982
Total Homicides: 609
Since then, the totals have shifted slightly as additional homicides have been recorded:
Shot & Killed: 536 (-2)
Shot & Wounded: 2,444 (0)
Total Shot: 2,980 (-2)
Total Homicides: 613 (+4)
2023 showed a similar change over the past two years where the final totals for 2023 were:
Shot & Killed: 575
Shot & Wounded: 2,501
Total Shot: 3,076
Total Homicides: 644
Since then, the totals have risen as additional homicides have been recorded:
Shot & Killed: 577 (+2)
Shot & Wounded: 2,500 (-1)
Total Shot: 3,077 (+1)
Total Homicides: 650 (+6)
In addition to the known shifts over time, the Medical Examiner routinely listed homicides where we cannot locate a corresponding CPD report. These cases usually involve individuals who were injured at some point in the mid-to-distant past only to pass away of late. These homicides are left out of our count because we do not have a definite date, time and location. This year there are eight (8) such cases. We also have 29 unresolved death investigations with a current status of “pending”.
Final note: As our pinned post on X says: All murders are homicides, but not all homicides are murder. We count homicides that occur within the Chicago city limits, whereas the CPD counts murders within their jurisdiction. Therefore, the two totals will never equal one another, we will always be higher, and shockingly, they’ll always be lower.
Wherever 2025 finishes on January 1st when compared to the last 11 years, it’ll be very much a year of reversion to the mean.
This year will be more inline with the ghosts of Christmases near-present than the ghosts of Christmases with summer-like numbers and winter-like temperatures. 
‘Twas the weekend before Christmas, and all through wards, aldercreatures were stirring—like budget-hungry hordes. At the CTU stockings were hung by the chimney with care, in hopes that Santa Brandon soon would be there. So up to the rooftop the deficits flew, with a sleigh full of spending, Brandon exclaimed, “Happy Christmas to all—and to all a good hike!”
It’s of no surprise to see whenever the Polar Vortex makes an appearance, the nonsense slows down, a lot. 
While the extended Thanksgiving weekend has been known to put up summer-like numbers in the past, this year, officers Cold, Blustery and Stormy will be cracking down on the non-demonizable silly decisions. 
When “isolated incident(s)” meets “kids will be kids” with a dash of “demonizing our children is wrong” and a soupçon of “silly decisions” and you’ll end up with “big cities have crime”. 
Downshifting into a lower violence gear is typical for this time of year as the lead flies a bit less, but in many cases proves more deadly. 
Officer Winter Storm will be on duty this weekend, which means the nonsense will be slower than having all the felonious, yellow-vested Justice-Involved Violence Influencers milling around on the same street corner. 
Due to a quirk in the scheduling, Halloween falling on a Friday this year yields two rounds of drunken nonsense up north as the usual demonization-free, completely acceptable “shootings will continue”. 
With Halloween falling on a Friday this year, the traditional Saturday before drunken shitshow will be spread across two weekends this year. Hence, we’ll look for the standard drunken idiocy up north, while the usual non-demonizable, law enforcement is a sickness-involved nonsense plays out elsewhere. 
Remember the last “No Kings” protest? We neither. Apparently aging Boomers backed by some NGO cash (or maybe donations from gambling winnings) are going to give it another go. Hearing aids to 11! Meanwhile, here’s a list of incidents that will never see a protest… 
Quite a bit of non-Chicago crime stuff in motion at the moment. Therefore, there were zero updates for this past weekend. The full weekend wrap-up won’t published this time around (13 shot, 3 fatally, or 18 shot, 4 fatally if you include 
With the summer-like weather of late, it seems as if we’re inching closer to the finding out stage (say, Broadview-way). Maybe come Tuesday, a switch towards more seasonal weather won’t make it worth the paycheck. In the meantime, the usual acceptable nonsense and stupidity will continues. 
Coming off a disastrous Labor Day weekend, it seemed for a while there that this September was going to outpace last September’s homicide tally. However, some sort of sickness took hold and slowly eradicated the trend to a point where the end results wound up at decade lows. 
This weekend marks the first anniversary of those racist walkie-talkies (i.e., ShotSpotter) being deactivated. In that timeframe, 56 (known) victims have become “Brandon’s Bodies” with 26 proving fatal. Those numbers do not include the 1000s and 1000s of shooting incidents where no one catches a round that are no longer reported. See how that works? And with shootings “down”, Mayor Panic Attack feels it’s a good time to say the quiet part out loud with his proclamation that 
In years past, Mexican Independence Day caravans would bring traffic to a complete standstill just because, however this year may be different for a number of reasons. We’ll see if it takes 2 hours to go 3 miles. 
Amazing! We never figured that Justice-Involved Violence 
For the entire time we’ve been tracking this nonsense, at least once a year (usually around Memorial Day) some politician, “activist” or other brain damaged member of the kakistocracy says it’s time to bring in the National Guard. Surprisingly, pro-criminal pols, justice-involved violence influencers and associated grifters are now against such a move. 
The Air & Water Show returned to the lakefront as always this weekend, while the Lead in the Air Show continues apace elsewhere around town.
It’s the weekend where suburban teens and 20-something Trixies and Chads make silly decisions and get an expensive ambulance ride to Northwestern, elsewhere around town, Shootapalooza is comprised of silly decisions of a different sort. 
It’s that time of year when Rahm’s ye odle Weather Modification Device is dragged out of the flooded basement and switched on for a bit. Precipitation resulting in flooded streets are a great way to minimize drive-by silly decisions. 
With NASCAR dropping word late Friday they won’t be back next year, there are now plenty of opportunities (and room) to create a massive, demonization-free Safe Space in Grant Park. 
After declaring crime is down with the help of equitable, yet diverse Justice Involved Violence Influencers, the July 4th week showed that crime may be on the uptick again, but only because General Nixon of the 37th Indiana Regiment of the Confederacy refuses to participate in a drum circle. 
Many years ago, this weekend was a lock for the most violent of the year. However, when the wheels came off in late May of 2020, it was relegated to just another lead-filled, mostly peaceful, often violent weekend of silly decisions with an extra day or two thrown in to pad the stats. Given the relative slowdown since February it’s likely this weekend will once again become tops for the year. 
Pride cometh before the 
Our first all 70° weekend was delayed by nearly two months, but now we’ll be pushing 100° for the majority of the weekend. Extreme heat acts much like extreme cold – people tend to stay indoors and therefore (usually) out of the line of fire. Using history as a guide, once the sun goes down the porches, sidewalks and corners will be packed with potential targets. 
Five years ago, Father’s Day weekend ended up being the absolute shitshows of shitshows making it the highest tally we’ve ever recorded for a standard, non-holiday weekend. This year we have the totally organic, grassroots, paid agitator-free, mayoral approved, surprisingly peaceful “No Kings” protest. Thankfully, no attempted replay of May 2020, here anyway. 
Nearly two months behind schedule for our first all 70°s weekend, however at this point it’s unlikely to as much a difference as it has in years past. 
Five years ago this weekend, downtown as well as large swaths of the west and south sides transformed into Safe Spaces as Burning, Looting & Murder were not only acceptable but openly encouraged. Our recently revised totals from those two days, Saturday 5/30/20, and Sunday 5/31/20, show 28 killed and 70 shot and wounded. 
The Summer of Silly Decisions has arrived! Starting this weekend and for the next 100 days, poor life choices will accompany silly decisions resulting in maximum stupidity. However stupid or silly, they’re just kids, so we ask that you please do not demonize them. 
There was a possibly of this weekend being our first all 70°s weekend of the year, but it’s looking like that’ll be delayed until next weekend. In any event, the forecast does call from an elevated risk of traditional Mother’s Day violence. 
Hey! Hey! Ho! Ho! Guacamole gots to go! 
With the lack of the first all 70° weekend along with subsequent summer-like previews, this weekend will put a bow on what will be a very quiet, maybe eerily quiet April with the fewest homicides since the 2013 campaign. 
Years ago some had called for and tried “Thou Shalt Not Murder” Easter Sunday which unsurprisingly didn’t work out as planned. This Easter, the apparent plan is to let the rain do its thing.
Minimal updates for the next week or so unless the silly decisions become over-demonized and unacceptable. Grab the mail and water the plants. The emergency numbers are by the phone. No silly decisions or demonizing while we’re away. 
This weekend marks the two year anniversary of Brandon’s election victory. We’re still 5 weeks away from the official two years in office millstone, as such Brandon has time to work on getting that 6% approval rating below 5%. On the bright side, we only have two more years to find someone worse. 