Grey Enlightenment

Once again, it’s time for the New Year’s forecasts. Economics and Finance This is actually the easiest to forecast despite the common assumption that markets are hopelessly or unpredictably random or efficient. There are patterns which are easy to exploit. Dips in the stock market tend to be brief. The market quickly recovers whenever Trump… Continue reading Predictions for 2026

I have observed that the biggest critics and strongest criticisms of liberalism isn’t from the right, but by those very liberals themselves. I first noticed this in 2019-2020, what I have dubbed the so-called ‘smart left‘ or the ‘reactionary-left‘, which describes a growing trend among highly-educated liberals who are increasingly willing to hold the left… Continue reading Shared Dissatisfaction in an Age of Liberal Disillusion

1905 is regarded as Albert Einstein’s so-called “Miracle Year” (Annus Mirabilis), in which he published four seminal papers that shaped the course of physics. (My own take is general relativity, which came later, is a more beautiful theory.) But anyway, 2025 was my equivalent miracle year. 2025 was one of my most profitable and productive… Continue reading 2025 predictions recap: my most accurate year ever

Are we in the best of times or the worst of times? Is the ‘vibecession’ real, or are people just venting frustrations? I am of two minds here. I agree with Zvi that things have gotten better or are the best by many objective measures. People have near-unlimited entertainment choices. Cars are safer and more… Continue reading “Vibecession” reflects an increasingly difficult economy and society

The Compact article, “The Lost Generation,” by Jacob Savage, went massively viral. It was even shared by JD Vance. The author recounts being unable to find a writing job in Hollywood, which he attributes to being white, and then relays this to other examples, such as the media. But his examples are not really applicable… Continue reading “The Lost Generation”

I have argued that average-IQ people benefit from what I call ‘lottery systems of wealth’, in which the median income is low or even negative, the failure rate is high, and the mean is positively skewed by huge outliers (e.g. athletes, e-celebs, or famous entrepreneurs). Examples include investing/gambling crypto, podcasting, or starting a YouTube channel.… Continue reading Meritocratic Wealth vs Lottery Wealth

Last week it came to light that famous author and neurologist Oliver Wolf Sacks had fabricated patient stories in his popular books. Steven Pinker, in a viral series of tweets, called it a bombshell, asking, “Why did The New Yorker, which perpetuates the myth that they employ an army of meticulous fact-checkers, pollute our understanding… Continue reading Lies can persist when it’s not worth investigating the truth

High-minded critics have frequently deplored the state of popular culture as being derivative, stale, stagnant, or stuck. The popularity of comic book movies and superhero franchises is a commonly cited example of this trend. Or an over-reliance on sequels or prequels by creativity-starved writers and profit-maximizing studio execs. Popular writers and commentators have called popular… Continue reading Culture hasn’t stagnated; rather, it has become more niche.

From, “On 10 Years of Writing a Blog Nobody Reads” Using this “careful” language just softens your ideas to the point of being inarguable. If you start a sentence with “I feel…” then no one can dispute anything that follows, since it’s just your feeling. This is boring to read. There is nothing inherently wrong… Continue reading Defensive writing thrives because everyone is a critic

Hedge funds are struggling due to AI supposedly making markets more efficient, “AI is making hedge funds unable to hedge:” The 12-month correlation between composite hedge funds and the S&P 500 is 0.955, at the 99th percentile of historical readings. Multi-strategy hedge funds show a 0.819 correlation, also near a record high at the 98th… Continue reading Systems beat AI (Bitcoin case study)