A US-Israel spat that doesn’t add up

With help from Joe Gould, Miles J. Herszenhorn, Daniel Lippman and Alex Ward.

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Republican lawmakers and top Israeli officials have been accusing the Biden administration of slowing weapons shipments to Israel. But there’s no clear evidence of any slowdown beyond typical bottlenecks — and no sign the U.S. has impeded Israel’s military operations in Gaza.

Last week, the Israeli prime minister accused the U.S. of withholding weapons and ammunition to Israel, implying that Israel’s military operation against Hamas militants in Gaza has been slowed because of it. The White House has repeatedly denied his accusations, saying that only one shipment of American weapons to Israel has been paused.

Today, Israeli forces pounded several parts of Gaza, and Israeli officials say they are close to destroying the remaining Hamas battalions in the southern city of Rafah.

American officials told The Wall Street Journal today that the slowdown is because weapons have been delivered and the Israeli government has put in fewer requests. The current delivery pace of U.S. weapons to Israel is slow when compared to the first few months of the war, a State Department official told the outlet, explaining that the current frequency is comparable to pre-war times.

But the right measure to use is wartime, not peacetime, requirements for the military, said MARK CANCIAN, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The key question is whether the reduction in deliveries has affected Israeli operations,” he added.

Regardless of the state of the war in Gaza, the public spat “and the slowing of arms sales have created a large wedge between our nations,” said Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told NatSec Daily. Because of the apparent slowdown, “the administration has created a rift for domestic political consumption.”

Gauging the pace of U.S. weapons shipments to Israel is tricky for a few reasons. Many of the orders were put in years ago, and the Biden administration doesn’t have to announce deliveries. The U.S. often draws from previously approved arms sales or U.S. stockpiles, so Congress doesn’t have to be notified.

Once weapons systems and munitions already in the pipeline are delivered, there can be a natural slowing in the pace of shipments, said BRADLEY BOWMAN, a senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. But the bomb shipment pause and Biden’s public critiques of Israel’s military operation “can create natural suspicions that the slower delivery pace might be a deliberate political decision,” he told NatSec Daily.

A senior administration official told reporters today that American and Israeli officials are “going to continue to consult on a regular basis to identify any inefficiencies in the system.”

In recent days, U.S. and Israeli officials have spoken and made “real progress in a mutual understanding of where things stand … so that we can make sure that we are moving things in ways that meet the needs of the Israelis,” said the official, granted anonymity to discuss private conversation.

Asked today about the weapons delay, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY mostly dodged, but told reporters that Israel continues to get arms and ammunition from the U.S.

Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, backed that up: “I think the regular process is taking place,” he told NatSec Daily. “There is no slowing in giving Israel what it needs.”

The Inbox

CEASE-FIRE DEAL ‘CLOSE’: A cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas is “down to specific paragraphs,” the senior administration official mentioned above also told reporters today.

“In some ways, it’s as close as it’s ever been,” the official added, emphasizing that the final outline hasn’t yet been agreed upon.

The analysis follows Israeli Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT’s comment today that “we stand firmly behind the president’s deal,” referring to the cease-fire proposal unveiled by Biden that would see Israeli hostages released by Hamas and Israeli troops pull out of Gaza.

ISRAELI BLAME GAME: Israel blamed the United Nations today for the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, a day after the U.N. threatened to halt aid operations in the enclave unless Israel takes steps to protect their workers.

Israeli prime minister’s office spokesperson DAVID MENCER told reporters today that U.N. aid agencies, including UNRWA, are responsible for the aid not getting to civilians and said that “non-U.N. aid agencies have been able to deliver aid successfully,” per The Washington Post’s ANNABELLE TIMSIT.

“It is unfortunately UNRWA and others, and the World Food Program is another one, who simply spend their time perpetuating this conflict rather than pulling their finger out and actually doing the job which they were designed to do. Stop blaming Israel,” Mencer said.

But UNRWA is the main organization providing humanitarian aid to Palestinians and seen as a vital part of the aid network in the enclave. Israel has come under international fire for blocking aid routes and mistakenly targeting aid workers in Gaza.

Also today, the U.S. accused Israel of carrying out “systematic attacks” on hospitals in Gaza, and a British charity decried the killing of 500 health care workers since the war began, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports.

BIDEN’S GAS PROBLEMS: Biden has tried to keep gas prices down ahead of the November election, complicating his efforts to counter adversaries like Russia, Iran and Venezuela, The Wall Street Journal reports.

“The policy has led to softer-than-expected sanctions on major oil producers, according to diplomats, former government officials and energy-industry players briefed by current officials,” the outlet writes.

One instance played out Tuesday, when Washington levied new sanctions at Tehran — which target part of the country’s oil exports but are unlikely to affect global markets. Despite tensions rising between the U.S. and Iran since the Tehran-backed Hamas attacked Israel in October, the U.S. has been careful to not impose sanctions that would hurt Western economies.

EVAN’S TRIAL: The trial of Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH in Russia began today, the first espionage case against a Western journalist since the Cold War, our own EVA HARTOG reports. Ahead of the hearing, journalists were given a rare glimpse of Gershkovich who appeared with a shaved head but appeared to be healthy, casting several smiles in the direction of reporters.

DONALD TRUMP weighed in on the trial in a post on Truth Social today, reiterating his claim that if he’s elected in November, Gershkovich will be “released prior to my taking office.”

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ELECTION 2024

WATCHING HIS WORDS: Foreign officials are now intimately familiar with the whole taking Trump “seriously versus literally” debate, and they’re preparing for the worst-case scenario, our own NAHAL TOOSI reports.

If anything, one foreign diplomat said, it’s best to expect for Trump’s words to quickly lead to drastic policy changes: “Rhetoric has real world implications,” the diplomat told Nahal. “It moves the Overton window of what is acceptable to propose. Once it is said, it becomes a possibility. Then people support that possibility and it becomes a demand on the politicians.”

This is especially true in international affairs, she writes.

These days, foreign diplomats and U.S. officials who deal with global affairs are parsing Trump’s words closer than ever, and even the most seasoned of them are still startled now and then. But the foreign policy crowd is looking beyond the more well-known of Trump’s bold pronouncements, like his talk of leaving NATO or admiration for Russia’s VLADIMIR PUTIN, to prepare for other scenarios that once seemed unthinkable, such as bombing drug cartels in Mexico.

Keystrokes

ADMIN IN THE HOT SEAT: Lawmakers challenged Biden administration officials today on their efforts to reduce a major talent shortage in the cybersecurity sector.

As Eric and our colleagues at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!) report, there’s a sizable gap between the number of vacancies in the cybersecurity sector and the number of qualified candidates to fill those roles. RODNEY PETERSEN, the director of the national initiative for cybersecurity education at the Commerce Department’s National Institute of Standards and Technology, emphasized that despite “modest improvements … there is still a talent gap of 225,000 cybersecurity workers needed to meet employer demand.”

Administration officials maintain they’re doing everything they can to address the shortage and reduce the gap, with Pentagon, DHS and White House officials emphasizing that they’re working on improving early-career pathways, enhancing training and scholarship programs and partnering with colleges and universities to ensure that more people have access to these jobs. They’re also working to revise the hiring process for cyber roles within the federal government to be more skills-based.

But lawmakers want the government to go further. House Homeland Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) announced he’ll “soon be introducing legislation to grow our cyber workforce and sustain a steady pipeline each year.” Among the provisions he’s looking at is a push to improve pay for these jobs so the federal government can better compete with the private sector for talented candidates.

The Complex

‘RIGHTING A HISTORIC WRONG’: The Biden administration pardoned thousands of LGBTQ service members today who were removed from the military because of their sexual orientation or gender identity.

In a statement preceding the pardon proclamation, Biden said the move “is about dignity, decency and ensuring the culture of our armed forces reflect the values that make us an exceptional nation.”

The announcement, which coincided with the ninth anniversary of the Supreme Court decision legalizing same-sex marriage throughout the United States, comes as Republicans have homed in on diversity and inclusion efforts in the military and introduced culture war provisions in funding bills that would, among other things, prevent the military from paying for gender transition surgeries and other gender-affirming care for service members.

THE JUNTA ROLLS ALONG: Sanctions against Myanmar’s military government have reduced, but not completely eliminated, the junta’s access to weapons and cash in foreign accounts, according to Reuters’ SIMON LEWIS.

A report from the United Nations’ special rapporteur on Myanmar, TOM ANDREWS, found that the junta is still importing upwards of $250 million in weapons, dual-usage technologies, manufacturing equipment and other materials. That figure is down a third from the previous year. But the military is still able to conduct strikes against villages and civilians as it seeks to defeat the insurgency fighting to restore democratic rule.

On the Hill

AIPAC APEX: Pro-Israel groups helped Westchester County Executive GEORGE LATIMER unseat progressive Rep. JAMAAL BOWMAN (D-N.Y.) in Tuesday night’s primary, marking the first defeat for a Democratic incumbent and a member of the “Squad.”

And as our colleagues at Playbook reported this morning, AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups aren’t done going after the “Squad.” AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups are supporting a primary challenger against Rep. CORI BUSH (D-Mo.), in a race that pollsters say is a statistical dead heat.

While the Israel lobby hasn’t yet dropped nearly as many dollars into the looming Missouri showdown as they did into the Latimer-Bowman race, their win in New York could open the door for a major cash infusion into the Missouri race. And another primary upset would certainly prove the might of the powerful group’s political muscle as it looks to recalibrate the debate on U.S. support for Israel within the Democratic party.

WHEN BEN MET JOHN: Israeli officials pulled out the red carpet for Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN (D-Pa.), granting him a meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem today and praising the Pennsylvania progressive for his “moral clarity and moral courage.”

In a video posted to social media of Netanyahu and the senator, the Israeli leader said “Israel has had no better friend than Senator John Fetterman” and added “we appreciate this friendship at all times, but especially at these times.”

Fetterman has become one of the most ardent supporters of Israel and U.S. assistance to the Israeli war effort within the Democratic ranks despite criticism from fellow progressives.

Broadsides

CHINA’S BURN: Beijing is rejecting accusations from U.S. Ambassador NICHOLAS BURNS that China is stymying diplomatic engagement and limiting people-to-people exchange opportunities, according to Reuters’ LIZ LEE.

At a Foreign Ministry press conference, ministry spokesperson MAO NING said Burns’ remarks in an interview with The Wall Street Journal “are not true and deviate from the important consensus reached by the two heads of state.” She added that Beijing is “committed to promoting cultural exchanges between China and the United States.”

PUTTING A PIN IN IT: Rep. TROY NEHLS (R-Texas) said he’s no longer wearing a badge pin awarded to infantrymen or Special Forces who fought in active combat after many of his own colleagues have accused him of “stolen valor,” our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA reports. Speaking to reporters, Nehls said he wasn’t wearing the pin “because you guys are vultures.”

Transitions

— MARK RUTTE, the outgoing Dutch prime minister, was officially named NATO’s next secretary-general today.

— JANA NELSON is now deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Western hemisphere, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. She most recently was senior policy adviser at the U.S. Mission to the U.N.

— Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY this week replaced Lt. Gen. YURIY SODO, a top general in charge of commanding troops on a critical section of the eastern front line. The move shortly came after BOHDAN KROTEVYCH, the chief of staff of the Azov Brigade, publicly announced that he asked Ukrainian investigators to look into “a military general who in my opinion has killed more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general,” The Washington Post’s ISABELLE KHURSHUDYAN and SERHII KOROLCHUK report.

— CHRIS DeRUSHA is now director of global public sector compliance for Google Cloud. He previously was federal chief information security officer for the U.S. and deputy national cyber director.

What to Read

— DAVID HAREL, TAMIR PARDO, TALIA SASSON, EHUD BARAK, AARON CIECHANOVER and DAVID GROSSMAN, The New York Times: Netanyahu does not speak for us. Congress should disinvite him

— VICTOR CHA, Foreign Affairs: America’s Asian partners are not worried enough about Trump

— PETER DICKINSON, POLITICO: Sorry Farage, Putin is provoked by Ukrainian independence — not NATO

Tomorrow Today

— The Asia Society Policy Institute, 8 a.m.: How can the world meet Asia’s climate finance needs?

— The Wilson Center, 9 a.m.: 10th annual conference on building a competitive U.S.-Mexico border.

— Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 9:30 a.m.: 2024 Africa forum.

— The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: The potential for expanding defense cooperation within the ROK-U.S. alliance.

— The Arab Center, 10 a.m.: Israel’s Global Isolation: International decisions in the wake of the Gaza War.

— The Center for a New American Security, 10 a.m.: Cybersecurity in the Indo-Pacific: Republic of Korea.

— The Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: New trends in African migration: Case studies from Morocco and Nigeria.

— The Washington Post Live, 11:30 a.m.: NATO’s priorities and the Russia-Ukraine War.

— The Atlantic Council, 1 p.m.: War in Sudan: Ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity in West Darfur.

— State Department, 1 p.m.: Championing Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, Queer and Intersex (LGBTQI+) equality across the U.S. government and around the world.

— Center for a New American Security, 2 p.m.: Swarms over the Strait: Drone warfare in a future fight to defend Taiwan.

Thanks to our editor, Ben Fox, who has yet to identify any of his inefficiencies.

Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who helps speed up the process.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this newsletter mischaracterized BradleyBowman’s explanation about why there could be “suspicions” about the slowdown in U.S. weapons to Israel.