2002.09.29
Update
Added a prediction to the Prescience section.
2002.09.29
Update
Updated the Quotes section. New quotes from Max Planck, Carl Sagan, & Kraftwerk among others.
2002.09.22
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881-1955)
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, the controversial Jesuit mystic, was truly a theologian, philosopher, and scientist ahead of his time. Teilhard coined the terms Noosphere and the Omega Point, now fixtures of the transhumanist vernacular. Teilhard, a radical Catholic who seems to be gaining in stature with each passing year, stands to bridge the gap between orthodoxical Christianity and 21st century theology and philosophy.
Unlike most Christians of his day, Teilhard wholly accepted the observations of empirical science. Not one to shy away from notions of punishable hubris, he believed it was the human mission to explore God’s creation: “There is less difference than people think between research and adoration.” He gauged the divorce of science and religion as an unfortunate and antithetical development. In his worldview, science was the fuel that powered faith. In this sense, Teilhard’s vision for humanity was not too far removed from those of humanists and transhumanists. In fact, he spoke of the emergence of neo-humans.
The Vatican saw Teilhard as a threat to the integrity of Catholicism, and insisted that his religious writings not be published. He was forbidden to teach or even to speak publicly on religious subjects, and he was banished from his native France.
However, in light of recent scientific and technological developments, Teilhard’s writings have been reinvigorated. He will most likely go down in history as the first transhumanist Christian. He essentially predicted the Internet and World Wide Web, including its predicted future manifestation, the Noosophere (or superconsciousness). He also affirmed Darwinian processes and believed that “there is an absolute direction of growth , to which both our duty and our happiness demand that we should conform.” He believed it was the human function to complete cosmic evolution, and went so far as to say that: "Christ is realized in evolution.”
Although his writings are heavily laden with Christian mythology, and thus quite unpalatable for the majority of transhumanists, his teachings may introduce an entire generation of Christians to the progressive and optimistic world of transhumanism.
Related readings:
Phenomenon of Man
by Pierre Teilhard De Chardin
The Divine Milieu
By Pierre Teilhard De Chardin
“Pierre Teilhard de Chardin: Toward a Science Charged with Faith”
by Charles P. Henderson
“Absolute Versus Human Perfectionism”
by Mark Walker
“The Problem of Evil Solved”
by Mark Walker
2002.09.22
New Article
Book Review – John Brockman (Ed.) The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century
Transhumanists tend to have rather grand expectations for scientific and technological developments over the next 50 years. In fact, it is this resultant urgency that gives the movement its rasion d’etre. Thus it was with some anticipation that I picked up John Brockman’s new anthology, The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century. I was curious to see how the conclusions of ’25 of the world’s leading scientists’ would compare to those of transhumanists. My interest increased after reading the table of contents as there were a number of essay titles that were immediately applicable to transhumanism
2002.09.18
New Article
Religious Fundamentalism as a Viral Psychological Disorder
Richard Dawkins once described religious memes as mind viruses. Might he be right? In this brief article I argue that, at the very least, fundamentalism that borders on fanaticism can most certainly be classified as a personal and social psychological health issue.
2002.09.18
Future Viruses
Several months ago, lab technicians working on a research experiment for the U.S. military successfully managed to replicate a virus from its DNA source code. Oddly enough, they chose a rather lethal virus, and I can only suspect that this was done to further punctuate their point. Similarly, Richard Dawkins, in his recent essay, “Son of Moore’s Law,” conjectured that “an embryologist of 2050 will feed the genome of an unknown animal into a computer, and the computer will simulate an embryology that will culminate in a full rendering of the adult animal.” In other words, it’s going to get progressively easier to render life from the DNA code, including lethal viruses. The most potent threat to face humanity during the next 15 to 75 years will be the deliberate or accidental release of lab-created pathogens.
Assuming we get there, and that the transhumanist projections for pending technologies are met, by the mid-point of the 21st century biologists will have to scramble to identify new viruses, determine propagation vectors and modus operandi of these viruses, and then disseminate anti-viral ‘definition lists’ to immune-system nanobots to counter them. Yes, human bodies will be teeming with immune-system supplementing nanobots, and perhaps they will have their definition lists updated regularly via wireless whenever a new virus is detected. The same may be true for robots and cyborgs who will have to combat viruses that infect software and mechanical processes. Even those who have uploaded themselves into computers (possibly living exclusively in VR environments) won't be safe; Ray Kurzweil suspects that by late century, well over half of the world's computer processing power will have to be devoted to combating computer viruses (Kurzweil, 1999).
Eventually, however, it's more than likely that our vulnerable wetware biologies will succumb to these diseases. In sheer Darwinian fashion, the only survivors may be robots and cyborgs, because their morphologies may be more robust. It may not be a good idea to remain completely biological as we venture deeper into the bizarre 21st century.
2002.09.18
Your Quantum Existence
Quantum physics implies that consciousness does not arise from reality, but reality arises from consciousness. In a digitally quantum (or Platonic) world, linearity has virtually no meaning. By virtue of your necessary existence, your observations force the rendering of all the intricate threads of circumstances -- all the way from the Big Bang to the present moment -- that guarantee your presence in the personal universe you currently reside in.
2002.09.16
Future Space Travel
When I watch Star Trek now I have to laugh. The idea that conventional Homo sapiens will be roaming around the galaxy in starships in the 24th century now seems preposterous. The rigors of space, we are learning, are going to be much harder on our biological forms than we once thought. More to the point, however, the human species is going to emerge from the 21st century as something barely resembling our current manifestation. Imagine what we (or our synthetic progeny -- 'Mind Children', as Moravec calls to them) will look like 300 years from now! It's inconceivable, really. No, in all likelihood, Earth's first interstellar explorers will be artificially intelligent robots/probes, perhaps even von Neumann machines/probes. A von Neumann machine is something that is able to build a working copy of itself using materials in its environment. This is often proposed as a cheap way to mine or colonize the entire solar system or galaxy [an early fictional treatment was the short story "Autofac" by Philip K. Dick, published in 1955, which actually seems to precede John von Neumann's original paper about self-reproducing machines: von Neumann, J., 1966, The Theory of Self-reproducing Automata]. A von Neumann Probe is a von Neumann machine able to move over interstellar or interplanetary distances and to utilize local materials to build new copies of itself. Such probes could be used to set up new colonies, perform megascale engineering or explore the universe. If and when posthumans follow in their wake, they may take on the form of specialized cyborgs, or as wave-patterns in a computer, or even as electromagnetic signals sent into space at the speed of light awaiting arrival at an compiling station. Ah, to boldly go where no wave-pattern has gone before.
2002.09.09
Retrospective with Perspective: 9/11 one year later
The events of September 11, 2001 shocked the world. The horrors and callousness of that day were unthinkable, with virtually everyone commenting that it was something right out of Hollywood. As we reach the one year anniversary of 9/11 we should pause to reflect on what has happened since, and to assess the world’s reaction to those events.
Since 9/11, global military and security spending had spiraled: Over $1.6 trillion is now spent annually on military weapons (all figures $U.S.). At the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, organizers spent an estimated $300 million on security measures, or approximately $125,000 per athlete. By contrast, the 1999 WTO meetings in Seattle had a mere $5 million to spend on security.
This is in response to the deaths of less than 3000 people. By contrast, in the last twelve months:
· more North Americans were murdered by their spouses
· three times as many people died from food poisoning
· five times as many people were killed by drunk drivers
· ten times as many people committed suicide
· 100 times as many people died from smoking
North American governments are now planning to spend more than 20 billion dollars a year to help fight terrorism. Coincidentally, 20 billion dollars a year just happens to be the amount the World Health Organization has estimated it would take to end hunger in the world. On September 11th alone, it's estimated that:
· 24,000 people died of hunger
· 6020 children were killed by diarrhea
· 2700 children were killed by measles
· 1411 women died in childbirth
· 3288 children were made homeless by war
For an additional investment of 48 billion dollars a year (or less than 0.4 per cent of world military spending), we could:
· ensure that all children - both boys and girls - receive a primary education
· reduce the number of maternal childbirth deaths by three-quarters
· reduce the number of children who die before the age of five two two-thirds
· stop the spread of AIDS
Military and security spending is obviously important. Yet, one cannot help but think that a disproportionate amount of resources are being poured into alleviating a threat that has been grossly over-exaggerated. Moreover, it is obvious that the industrialised nations of the world are neglecting their humanitarian obligations to the people living in the underdeveloped parts of the globe. And what’s worse, the money is clearly there.
Note: This article was prepared with information from INFACT, The New Internationalist, CBC Radio, The Toronto Star, and the UN Forum on Global Poverty.
2002.09.07
Comment
20th century atrocities aside (and as long as we remain vigilant, we will never incur a repeat), there appears to be a correlation between moral and ethical progress with scientific and technological progress.
2002.09.05
The Hedonistic Imperative
From a certain perspective, one could argue that organisms thrive and survive based on the pleasure and pain principle. Animals exhibit certain behaviours and tendencies because it feels good to do it. It feels good because the genes want it that way: they control the organism like a puppet, and the strings that the genes use are pleasure and pain. An animal does not want pain, so it's 'pulled' away from certain behaviours. Unsafe behaviours will often result in pain, while prosperous behaviours result in physical and psychological rewards. Thus, animals perform their gene-propagating duties because it feels good and reduces stress. For example, minks experience as much stress when they're hungry as when they cannot access pools of water (see Georgia Mason, Cambridge University).
Have humans transcended the pleasure and pain principle? Yes and no. We understand why we are drawn to certain behaviours, so that gives us a bit of an advantage. However, I would argue that a pleasure threshold exists, where if pleasure gets too intense, free-will and rational thought disappears.
Let's assume that someone invents a pleasure machine in the future. This machine would provide intense and sustained physical pleasure to any person who chooses to use it, and they can stop the experience at any time (note: this thought experiment does not include psychological pleasure such as happiness). What would happen if you tried it? Before you answer, realize this: we're talking physical ecstasy of massive proportions. Words would not be able to describe how good it feels. Essentially, you'd be a zombie.
Humans must have a pleasure threshold, where once that threshold has been surpassed, an individual's free-will disappears and he is essentially dead. The pleasure is so intense that the person cannot bring themselves to stop the device. Now let's take this further: suppose we could achieve immortality and then start the pleasure machine (just suspend your disbelief as to how this could happen; perhaps robots could take care of energy and physical requirements while humans play with their pleasure toys). Would you start the device and experience extreme physical pleasure for all eternity? Is this desirable to you? Is this desirable for intelligent life? Would this essentially achieve the religious goal of eternal bliss in the afterlife (or are you only allowed to achieve psychological bliss in heaven)? Why should there be a moral distinction between the material and mystical realms?
These are tougher questions than they appear. It brings into play a whole number of axiological issues. What's the ultimate purpose of life? Is it goal oriented? Is it pleasure oriented? Or is there something else of greater moral and ethical value? Is psychological pleasure more 'valuable' and desirable than physical pleasure? But more to the point, will the human species have a choice in the matter? It is conceivable that the end-state of advanced intelligent life is the adoption of the hedonistic imperative. The human species may not consciously choose this, as the desire for intense physical pleasure may supercede rational argument.
2002.09.05
Prescience
Posted a new prediction in the Prescience section.
2002.09.05
How Are You Smart?
I’ve never taken an IQ test. I’ve looked at the questions and assumed that I would do very poorly. But I never once thought that I had ‘low’ intelligence. The test just seemed too limited to me. It didn’t seem fair that a person’s intelligence could only be assessed by asking questions that test things like logic and pattern recognition skills. My suspicions were affirmed after discovering the findings of Harvard education professor Dr. Howard Gardner. In his book, Frames of Mind: The Theory of Multiple Intelligences (1983), Gardner argues that there is not one but eight different types of intelligences: verbal-linguistic, logical-mathematical, visual-spatial, musical-rhythmic, bodily-kinesthetic, interpersonal, intrapersonal, and naturalist. [This line of thinking brings to mind Daniel Goleman’s notion of 'emotional intelligence']
Here’s how Gardner breaks down his intelligence types:
Verbal-Linguistic: Adept at reading, writing, speaking, and listening. Sensitive to language, the connotations of words and rhythm of poetry. Loves books, story telling, jokes.
Logical-Mathematical: Adept at calculating, classifying and understanding cause-effect relationships. Loves order, math, puzzles, problem-solving and number games.
Visual-Spatial: Adept at perceiving forms and thinking in images. Sensitive to visual details. Loves drawing, designing, map-reading and orienteering.
Musical-Rhythmic: Adept at keeping time and staying in tune. Sensitive to pitch, timbre and rhythm. Loves listening to music, singing and playing instruments.
Bodily-Kinesthetic: Adept at controlling the body and manipulating objects. Sensitive to touch and movement. Loves dance, role-playing, sports and crafts.
Interpersonal: Adept at interacting with other people. Sensitive to others’ feelings and motives. Loves working and playing in groups and assuming leadership roles.
Intrapersonal: Adept at identifying and expressing own thoughts and feelings. Sensitive to personal strengths and weaknesses. Loves daydreaming and being alone.
Naturalist: Adept at recognizing elements in nature. Sensitive to environmental issues. Loves being outdoors, studying nature, gardening, rock collecting and animal care.
September 1, 2002
August 1, 2002
August 2002
2002.08.31
My Reading List These Days
I am currently reading John Brockman's The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century, and I'm sure that will inspire some postings, so stay tuned. I'm also reading Elaine Morgan's The Descent of Woman (1982), and I hope to write some follow-up comments on that as well.
2002.08.25
The Song Meme
The better the song, the better its chances of being replicated. If a song is no good, then not a whole lot of people will be interested in acquiring or passing it on. This does not imply quality, however. Instead, the most potent survival strategy that a song can possess is mass appeal (which can also be influenced by marketing and the artist's popularity). The best place to see this in practice is in MP3 file sharing. Some songs are easy to find over the Internet, while others remain elusive. Those songs that are easy to find have good survival/replicative strategies.
But past reward is no guarantee of future gain. As time passes, the artistic merit of a song is what keeps it alive. With the artist out of the limelight, and without any marketing tricks, a song will only remain popular if it's a good one. Thus, in the short-term, mass appeal is what's important, but if you want a long-term survival strategy, your song has to be a good one.
Another survival strategy that an MP3 can adopt is leeching off the name of a valid MP3. Some record companies, frustrated by MP3 file sharing, toss bogus songs into the MP3 meme pool that have the names of popular songs. MP3 traders inadvertently download and propagate these songs.
2002.08.24
Future Music
One cannot help but be emotionally affected by a song. How a melody, key, or rhythm does this to our emotional state is still the cause of some mystery to me. I do believe, however, that a good melody is drug-like. Once we are familiar with a melody we can anticipate what's coming next while listening to the song, and that feels good (this explains why songs seem to get better with each listen). The anticipation, once rewarded by the actual linear passage of the melody, causes a positive emotional state in the listener (i.e. the pleasing melody causes a kind of transitory 'high' in the listener).
A great piece of music is one that takes the listener on an emotional journey. Artists hope to convey these emotional states through careful crafting of their compositions. This is quite transcendent; the artist is trying to evoke an emotional response in the listener. This is limited, however, by the 'emotional capabilities' of the listener; some people just cannot feel the proper highs and lows, or they are unable to properly decipher the emotional message as intended by the artist.
Imagine a future technology that could synchronize music to the emotional state of the listener. I've read some suggestions that future music will be composed and generated by the emotional state of the artist. But I've got a better idea: how about music that can manipulate the emotional state of the listener. By using some hand-waving technology, we could conceivably have music that taps into the emotional centers of our brain and cause a specific emotional response. For example, we could have a piece of music with sad, happy, playful, and frightening parts. The emotion-management technology would 'force' the listener to feel the emotional state as intended by the artist. Listeners could have absolutely sublime experiences. They could be thrust into feelings of despair and be slowly brought up until the climatic moments of bliss and ecstasy -- all synchronized to music. Imagine the potential 'trips' that listeners could take. [Note: In a way, rave culture has already tapped into this. Ravers take psychopharmaceuticals (such as ecstasy) to enhance and alter the emotional and perceptual experience of electronic music; a good spinner or electronic artist will try to tap into the emotional state of his audience].
2002.08.22
Posted new prediction in the Prescience section.
2002.08.17
Quantum Physics & Telepathy
Is there such a thing as telepathy? As I'm discovering, there are many people who believe so. There are a host of parapsychology departments and institutions that have been actively conducting experiments in mind-to-mind communication, precognition, and out-of-body experiences (aka 'remote viewing'). Psychedelics, it would appear, have an effect on consciousness that allow for such communication and observation (see Jean Millay's Multidimensional Mind). Additionally, Buddhism and other meditative philosophies have helped conceptualize and better facilitate these innate capabilities. (Thong Len may be another extension of this phenomenon).
Let's assume for a moment that these speculations are valid and that "telepathy" truly exists. How can we account for such a thing? Is there some sort of chemical transference between individuals? Is our body language conveying certain clues? Or is our science too primitive to explain it? These may partially explain the conundrum, but it does not sufficiently solve the puzzle. I thought about this, and I came up with a theory:
Yes, telepathy is theoretically possible. My consciousness is tied to both the physical and quantum realms. As I observe and measure the universe, it falls perfectly into place just for me (i.e. the observer forces the collapse of the wave function). The same thing happens to you, independent of my observations. We are all living in our own 'worlds,' and these 'worlds' are being revealed only to the specific observer; our personal-worlds are only as large as our observational field, and anything not observed is in a state of indeterminancy. For example, if we have a face to face conversation, everything behind me in my 'world' is in a state of unobserved indeterminancy, so it's not really there. But in your personal-universe, because you're looking at me and the world behind me, it has collapsed into a perceptually coherent world. Yet, I can interact with you. When we communicate, we are truly interfacing, but it only appears that we are in the same physical environment (or world). Thus, even though we can interact in the same room together, we are actually in our own physical worlds. So, the physical world is an illusion of sorts, or at the very least, it is one of our two environments. The other place we reside is the quantum dimension. Thus, by virtue of the fact that we can communicate and interact in the physical world (our interaction is not an illusion), our consciousness must be linked in the quantum environment.
Our verbal communication transpires in the physical world, but telepathic communication is conducted through the quantum dimension. Somehow, a consciousness that is in a telepathic link has tuned into another consciousness. It is a physical or cognitive state of the brain in the physical world that allows for this, and it would appear that psychedelic drugs and meditation help trigger these modes of consciousness. One way of looking at it is that a consciousness has tunneled through the quantum maze to get to another consciousness. It has tuned into the proper frequency.
I recently contacted Stuart Hameroff on this topic and asked him his opinion. He informed me that at the Quantum Mind Conference in 2003 there will be "compelling" evidence in favour of "telepathy." So, it would appear that I'm not the only one thinking along these lines. Another prominent thinker involved in this topic is Sir Roger Penrose (see his Shadows of the Mind and his discussion of microtubules). There are a host of people working on this issue at this time. I also e-mailed the quantum physicist David Deutsch, who is a telepathy skeptic, and have not received a response. Nor have I received a response from The Skeptics Society.
If this is all true about telepathy, what does it all mean? What does this mean to Transhumanists? Well, now I'm pretty sure that posthumans will have telepathy in the strong sense of the term, and possibly precognition. It may be achieved by future breakthroughs in psychopharmacology, neurology, or through advanced meditative technologies (or a combination of all three). How our relationships will change with each other and our place in the physical world is anybody's guess. I hope to write more on this particular topic in the near future.
2002.08.15
ET
I just finished listening to CBC's Quirks & Quarks. They had a special on about how we should react to first contact with an extra terrestrial civilization. It was a hard listen for many reasons, namely outdated science and an utter lack of imagination. I'm not sure that we can accurately speculate as to the nature of extra terrestrial life any more. I do not believe that aliens will arrive in spaceships, nor will they have any kind of political or cultural structure that we can relate to. I seriously doubt that we'll communicate via primitive radiowaves. It is unlikely that they will be organic or even humanoid; they would probably arrive as some kind of superintelligent machine consciousness, or in nanotechnological form (see Kurzweil, 1999), or even as a copy of themselves encoded in electromagnetic waves.
My point is this: extra terrestrial life is nothing like we think it is. We have no idea what our own civilization will be like in 50 years, let alone an advanced alien race. The human species is most likely on the verge of a technological singularity. How superintelligence will change our lives is still anybody's guess. It would appear that the human race will emerge from the 21st century as an entirely new species, or as several different new species. It's very likely that we'll be cyborg. Will advances in quantum computing and physics introduce new frontiers for exploration? Is the physical world really worth our trouble? How will consciousness change after superintelligence? How will we apply nanotechnology? What about our morals and goals? Will we adopt the hedonistic imperative? Or will we go into the depths of space as an expanding bubble of intelligence (see Hans Moravec)? We simply do not know yet!
I will say this, however: if an advanced intelligence does arrive at our planet sometime in the next few years, the proper response should probably be: "Please show us mercy."
2002.08.14
Dinosaurs and Intelligent Life
Some paleontologists have speculated that had the asteroid not smashed into the earth 65 million years ago that eventually one species of dinosaur would have evolved human-like intelligence and developed civilizations (e.g. the Troodon). I think this is highly unlikely. First of all, the dinosaurs had a 250 million year reign, and during all that time nothing even came close to being human-like. Moreover, the environment was not conducive for intelligence to evolve. Dinosaurs had to adapt physically rather than cognitively. What I mean by this is that dinosaurs were so fierce and brutal, that they had to adapt by evolving either fiercer predatory skills or improved defensive traits (e.g. speed, size, and armour). Intelligence, while surely beneficial to some dinosaurs, was always secondary in importance to physical prowess. And finally, the dinosaur morphology did not lend itself to tool making. They had short and awkward arms, which greatly inhibited their ability to manipulate the environment in ways that early humans could.
2002.08.13
Drake Equation
According to SETI, the N in the Drake Equation stands for "the number of civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable." In other words, N stands for the number of civilizations in our galaxy that have comparable technology to our own. Carl Sagan believed the number was around 10. Many people believe that Sagan was being unreasonably pessimistic, and that surely there must be more advanced life in our galaxy. I, on the other hand, believe that Sagan was overly optimistic. I would put the figure to N=<0.1>0.01 (i.e. 1 in 10 to 1 in 100 galaxies contain advanced intelligent life). In my estimation, technologically advanced civilizations are extremely rare. We are a freak of nature. Too many different and improbable variables had to come into play for us to advance from tree dwelling mammals to the atom-splitting species we are today.
I believe the galaxy is teeming with life. However, as complexity of life increases, prevalency decreases. There are probably millions of earth-like planets in our galaxy with prokaryote and eukaryotic life forms. There are probably thousands upon thousands of earth-like planets with complex animals such as fish, reptiles, and mammals. It is likely that there are hundreds of planets with primate or hominid-type creatures. And it is likely that there are dozens of intelligent species stuck in hunter-gatherer lifestyles. It is quite likely that the steps from hunter-gatherer to agrarian to feudal to industrial are far more difficult than we assume. But perhaps the most difficult evolutionary step is the one that causes a primate-like creature endowed with long arms, dexterous hands, and a large brain, to suddenly become bi-pedal -- an evolutionary quirk that still defies proper explanation (see Elaine Morgan, 1982). Humans are a truly bizarre organism.
2002.08.12
Humans and Technology
We have a symbiotic relationship with technology. We are dependant on technology for survival, while technology cannot replicate and evolve without our intervention (at least for the time being). Moreover, we are entrenched in a positive feedback loop. We make technology, which in turn enables us to make better technology, which in turn enables us to make even better technology, and so on.
2002.08.12
Intelligence and Rationality (Part V)
As discussed in Part IV, sentience is a qualitative trait that varies from species to species. Its strength is dependant on the sophistication of an organism’s communicative capabilities; the more social the animal, the more sentient it is (the sense of self increases as the interfacing capabilities of a consciousness increases). If a mind cannot communicate with another mind, then self-awareness is unlikely, if not impossible. In a very significant way, sentience is dependant on the presence of other minds. Thus, I theorize that a sentient consciousness cannot exist unless it can interface (or network) with another consciousness.
What are the ways in which two consciousnesses can interface and transfer data? There are many: verbal and written language, facial expressions, body language, chemical transference (e.g. pheromones), and many more (some of which we may not even be aware of, such as telepathy or telepathic-like communication that is experienced at a subconscious (or conscious) level). Also, our verbal and written languages can be classified as technologies, and like our other technologies, they are subject to improvements. While our biological communicative skills remain largely unchanged, our verbal/written skills are steadily evolving and gaining in sophistication. As a result, our sense of self may continue to increase.
A mind can collect data not only from another consciousness, but from the environment as well (including predators and the non-living environment). Our surroundings are constantly conveying information to us, and our minds can perceive this data using sight, sound, smell, touch, and taste. Thus, data reception from the environment is another player in the consciousness game. However, minds cannot transfer data to the environment. Minds can only transfer data to other minds -- a crucial step in the evolution of self-awareness. I don't believe that an organism can evolve a strong sense of self without significant bi-directional communication skills. Sensory environmental stimuli by itself will not result in the emergence of sentience. Many simple organisms (such as insects, amphibians, and fish) perceive the environment using their senses, but these perceptions control the organism's behaviour; there is no conscious analysis. Their instinctual scripts activate based on their interpretation of the environment at any given time. Also, bees are capable of transferring messages to other bees (namely, the location of good flowers), but again, there is no self-conscious intent on the part of the communicating bee; sentience is negligible as instinct dominates over self.
But as members of the same species begin to communicate with each other, and as this results in better survival strategies, both communication skills and sentience can improve over time. Strong sensory capabilities may be a direct correlate to the rise of consciousness and intelligence, but strong bi-directional communicative capabilities are a direct correlate to sentience.
2002.08.12
Human Reproduction & Sexuality
I've been reading up on Carl Djerassi recently, and he brings up a good point about human reproduction and sexuality. Djerassi, the inventor of the birth control pill, argues that couples currently leave fertilization to pure chance. Parents, aside from deciding to have a child, have no control as they roll the genetic dice. This limitation, says Djerassi, will eventually be a thing of the past, as couples will be able to select many characteristics of their offspring. In such a world, the act of sexual intercourse would be strictly recreational, while human reproduction would be left to the lab. This would almost certainly facilitate another sexual revolution on par with the effects of the birth control pill which was introduced in the 1960s.
2002.08.06
New Logo
Thanks, Paul -- it looks great.
2002.08.04
Intelligence and Rationality (Part IV)
Are animals conscious in the same sense that humans are? Are they sentient? If so, what is to distinguish between human sentience and animal sentience? I believe that sentience, or the sense of self, is experienced by both humans and many animals. Most of the larger mammals (particularly social animals such as pack animals and the primates) probably experience a greater sense of self than we have traditionally assumed. When a dog begs for a piece of chocolate, in his own mind, using the canine analog to semantic language, he is saying to himself: "I really like chocolate, and I would like to have some." To me, that is not only a sign of intelligence, but of self-awareness as well. The dog is not acting on instinct (or set scripts) alone. The dog is exerting a certain degree of free-will and subjective preference (qualia).
Sentience and language capabilities are a direct correlate. Dogs, as descendants of wolves, are pack animals, and pack animals are social creatures. They communicate which each other using body language and physical interactions. It's this same communicative neural hard-wiring that has enabled dogs to follow verbal commands from their human companions (and probably also explains why humans have the capacity for verbal language). Since dogs have fairly strong communication skills, I believe they are quite self-aware. I'm also starting to think that animals such as elephants, whales, and primates are quite sentient (we may need to rethink animal rights issues as a result; for more on this particular topic, see Peter Singer).
Aside from language skills, consciousness and sentience do not appear to be traits that are directly coded into our brains. Rather, consciousness may be an emergent effect of the brain's activities (see Kurzweil, 1999). Every atom in our brain gets replaced during the course of our lives, yet we still feel that we are the same person.
However, I think it's fair to say that humans are more sentient than the other animals. Due to our greater intelligence, language skills, and culture, we are better able to conceptualize and verbalize the sense of self. A 'lesser' primate, I would argue, with a few neural tweaks and enhancements (particularly in the language centers), could conceivably have a similar sense of self that humans have. Thus, sentience is a qualitative characteristic; there are low, medium, and high levels of self-awareness. Humans currently have the highest sense of self. We are capable of verbalizing: "I think, therefore I am." Additionally, we have existential awareness, we are aware of our own mortality, we are empathetic, we worry, and we plan for the future. But by no means have we reached the pinnacle of sentience. I believe that as we further develop our physical selves, and as we learn more about the nature of our existence, our sense of self will also continue to evolve and expand. And who knows -- for all we know, in the large scheme of things, we may have, in relative terms, the self-awareness of a goldfish.
2002.08.04
Commentary [updated from 2002.07.29, now removed]
Should the human race adopt a mission statement? Yes. We need to develop our sciences and ourselves so that we are no longer at nature's mercy. Richard Dawkins put it well: "I want to change the world in which I live so that natural selection no longer applies." This does not imply that nature has no value or that it is 'bad'. Just because we are getting better at controlling nature doesn't mean that we are somehow outside of it. We will always be a part of nature, and we should seek to establish and maintain an effective harmony with it.
There are two popular counter-arguments to this stance: we must 1) stop 'playing God' and 2) allow nature to follow its course. As a secular humanist, I reject the first argument. Humans are in control of their own destiny, and they are accountable to themselves, the entire species, and all life on this planet. We did not ask for these responsibilities, but as the most intelligent, self-aware, and technologically/culturally advanced species on this planet, we have a moral obligation to accept those responsibilities. There is no higher power at work that will solve our problems for us; to believe otherwise is irresponsible, if not delusional. As for the second argument, we have been 'tampering' with nature for the past 13,000 years, if not longer. It is impossible to live on this planet and not 'tamper' with it. We are as biological as any other creature on Earth. Some examples of this include our tool making skills, agriculture (which is artificial selection, aka genetic engineering), and our medical sciences (are we 'tampering' with nature when we cure a disease or immunize ourselves?). Another reason for rejecting the second argument is the 'conscious nature' fallacy. People often refer to nature as Mother Nature, or as some other quasi-sentient entity that knows what it's doing. This is simply not the case. Nature is a broad term used to describe the emergent effects of many different laws at play, namely physical and chemical reactions and natural selection. If I may quote Dawkins again: "The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference. "
And yet, humans have assigned a high moral value to the end results of these processes, namely life and existence itself. Why? Because intelligent life is capable of morally transcending the laws of nature. Most of us do not believe that 'survival of the fittest' is acceptable social behaviour. Instead, as we become more aware of ourselves, and as our collective intelligence increases, we are becoming morally and ethically stronger. For example, our empathy skills are increasing with each generation; the more we know, the better we can understand and sympathize with all life. Gender, racial, cultural, sexual, ageist, disabled, and class prejudices are slowly dissipating from collective and personal consciousnesses. Violence is gradually becoming an unacceptable way of resolving disputes. These trends will be sure to continue in the future, but only if we continue to seek a deeper understanding of ourselves and our existence.
2002.08.02
Transhumanism
Some Transhumanists have used the software analogy to describe the pending improvements to the human species, claiming that we are working towards Humanity version 2.0. While this is somewhat apropos of what Transhumanism is working to bring about, taking the analogy further reveals some of the dangers and pitfalls we need to avoid en route.
For example, would we start applying such terms as 'beta units,' and 'bugs' (or is that 'known issues' according to the Microsoft lexicon?) to posthuman works in progress? Personally, I wouldn't want to have children that are de facto beta versions of a posthuman (i.e. protoposthumans), full of genetic and technological defects. Yuck. The transition to a posthuman condition must be managed better than that. Also, the term Humanity 2.0, as it now stands, is meaningless. I am not sure that we can or should define a Humanity 2.0, other than a commitment to the increased health and general improvement of the species. In the future we should only describe a human as being either human or posthuman. Thus, a posthuman is to be defined as anyone who has had their genetic information altered (either before or after birth), or anyone who has had an implanted and somewhat permanent technological augmentation or enhancement. [On this last point, that I use a calculator doesn't make me posthuman, even though it's giving me abilities far beyond what I am naturally capable of. But if that calculator were to be permanently imbedded in my body somehow, then that would make me posthuman.]
We need to travel this path slowly and steadily. There will be no declaration of Humanity 2.0. We will just get better and healthier, dealing with each biological and technological issue as they come. There will be problems and side effects, though (how could there not be?), and top priority should be placed on managing and minimizing those problems. Talking about 'versions' and 'revisions' is contrary to the Transhumanist vision which seeks instead to honour the dignity and well-being of all humankind in all their forms.
2002.08.02
Quantum Physics
According to Hugh Everett’s Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum physics, the world is not as it appears. It’s interesting to see how the mind-body problem continues to persist in science and philosophy, and is arguably stronger than ever. Specifically, the issue is with the phenomenon known as quantum ‘splitting,’ or ‘mind-splitting.’ Essentially, every time you’re forced to make an observation or decision, you get copied (or split) into the other worlds of all probable outcomes. You, an observer, do not notice the persistent splitting. You’re just observing outcome after outcome after outcome. Life appears seamless and coherent. Little do you realize that all possible outcomes are being perceived by your consciousness’s copies in the other worlds; and just like you, they don't notice the splitting either. Their worlds are just as coherent as yours. This is why some quantum physicists are starting to refer instead to the Many Histories Interpretation. For example, take the Schrodinger’s Cat thought experiment. According to this exercise, the moment you check to see if the cat is dead or alive, you are split into one of two possible states: one that observes the dead cat and one that observers the living cat. [The mind-splitting phenomenon came to mind recently after an interesting occurrence here in Ontario last week. During the course of one single day, a man won $50,000 at the track betting on a long shot and he won $12.5 million in the lottery. My reaction? Well, ya -- in an infinite universe where all probable outcomes are observed, this is going to happen from time to time, and some seemingly miraculous events will be observed by us in our own historical time-line.]
My Reading List These Days
I am currently reading John Brockman's The Next Fifty Years: Science in the First Half of the Twenty-First Century, and I'm sure that will inspire some postings, so stay tuned. I'm also reading Elaine Morgan's The Descent of Woman (1982), and I hope to write some follow-up comments on that as well.
2002.08.25
The Song Meme
The better the song, the better its chances of being replicated. If a song is no good, then not a whole lot of people will be interested in acquiring or passing it on. This does not imply quality, however. Instead, the most potent survival strategy that a song can possess is mass appeal (which can also be influenced by marketing and the artist's popularity). The best place to see this in practice is in MP3 file sharing. Some songs are easy to find over the Internet, while others remain elusive. Those songs that are easy to find have good survival/replicative strategies.
But past reward is no guarantee of future gain. As time passes, the artistic merit of a song is what keeps it alive. With the artist out of the limelight, and without any marketing tricks, a song will only remain popular if it's a good one. Thus, in the short-term, mass appeal is what's important, but if you want a long-term survival strategy, your song has to be a good one.
Another survival strategy that an MP3 can adopt is leeching off the name of a valid MP3. Some record companies, frustrated by MP3 file sharing, toss bogus songs into the MP3 meme pool that have the names of popular songs. MP3 traders inadvertently download and propagate these songs.
2002.08.24
Future Music
One cannot help but be emotionally affected by a song. How a melody, key, or rhythm does this to our emotional state is still the cause of some mystery to me. I do believe, however, that a good melody is drug-like. Once we are familiar with a melody we can anticipate what's coming next while listening to the song, and that feels good (this explains why songs seem to get better with each listen). The anticipation, once rewarded by the actual linear passage of the melody, causes a positive emotional state in the listener (i.e. the pleasing melody causes a kind of transitory 'high' in the listener).
A great piece of music is one that takes the listener on an emotional journey. Artists hope to convey these emotional states through careful crafting of their compositions. This is quite transcendent; the artist is trying to evoke an emotional response in the listener. This is limited, however, by the 'emotional capabilities' of the listener; some people just cannot feel the proper highs and lows, or they are unable to properly decipher the emotional message as intended by the artist.
Imagine a future technology that could synchronize music to the emotional state of the listener. I've read some suggestions that future music will be composed and generated by the emotional state of the artist. But I've got a better idea: how about music that can manipulate the emotional state of the listener. By using some hand-waving technology, we could conceivably have music that taps into the emotional centers of our brain and cause a specific emotional response. For example, we could have a piece of music with sad, happy, playful, and frightening parts. The emotion-management technology would 'force' the listener to feel the emotional state as intended by the artist. Listeners could have absolutely sublime experiences. They could be thrust into feelings of despair and be slowly brought up until the climatic moments of bliss and ecstasy -- all synchronized to music. Imagine the potential 'trips' that listeners could take. [Note: In a way, rave culture has already tapped into this. Ravers take psychopharmaceuticals (such as ecstasy) to enhance and alter the emotional and perceptual experience of electronic music; a good spinner or electronic artist will try to tap into the emotional state of his audience].
2002.08.22
Posted new prediction in the Prescience section.
2002.08.17
Quantum Physics & Telepathy
Is there such a thing as telepathy? As I'm discovering, there are many people who believe so. There are a host of parapsychology departments and institutions that have been actively conducting experiments in mind-to-mind communication, precognition, and out-of-body experiences (aka 'remote viewing'). Psychedelics, it would appear, have an effect on consciousness that allow for such communication and observation (see Jean Millay's Multidimensional Mind). Additionally, Buddhism and other meditative philosophies have helped conceptualize and better facilitate these innate capabilities. (Thong Len may be another extension of this phenomenon).
Let's assume for a moment that these speculations are valid and that "telepathy" truly exists. How can we account for such a thing? Is there some sort of chemical transference between individuals? Is our body language conveying certain clues? Or is our science too primitive to explain it? These may partially explain the conundrum, but it does not sufficiently solve the puzzle. I thought about this, and I came up with a theory:
Yes, telepathy is theoretically possible. My consciousness is tied to both the physical and quantum realms. As I observe and measure the universe, it falls perfectly into place just for me (i.e. the observer forces the collapse of the wave function). The same thing happens to you, independent of my observations. We are all living in our own 'worlds,' and these 'worlds' are being revealed only to the specific observer; our personal-worlds are only as large as our observational field, and anything not observed is in a state of indeterminancy. For example, if we have a face to face conversation, everything behind me in my 'world' is in a state of unobserved indeterminancy, so it's not really there. But in your personal-universe, because you're looking at me and the world behind me, it has collapsed into a perceptually coherent world. Yet, I can interact with you. When we communicate, we are truly interfacing, but it only appears that we are in the same physical environment (or world). Thus, even though we can interact in the same room together, we are actually in our own physical worlds. So, the physical world is an illusion of sorts, or at the very least, it is one of our two environments. The other place we reside is the quantum dimension. Thus, by virtue of the fact that we can communicate and interact in the physical world (our interaction is not an illusion), our consciousness must be linked in the quantum environment.
Our verbal communication transpires in the physical world, but telepathic communication is conducted through the quantum dimension. Somehow, a consciousness that is in a telepathic link has tuned into another consciousness. It is a physical or cognitive state of the brain in the physical world that allows for this, and it would appear that psychedelic drugs and meditation help trigger these modes of consciousness. One way of looking at it is that a consciousness has tunneled through the quantum maze to get to another consciousness. It has tuned into the proper frequency.
I recently contacted Stuart Hameroff on this topic and asked him his opinion. He informed me that at the Quantum Mind Conference in 2003 there will be "compelling" evidence in favour of "telepathy." So, it would appear that I'm not the only one thinking along these lines. Another prominent thinker involved in this topic is Sir Roger Penrose (see his Shadows of the Mind and his discussion of microtubules). There are a host of people working on this issue at this time. I also e-mailed the quantum physicist David Deutsch, who is a telepathy skeptic, and have not received a response. Nor have I received a response from The Skeptics Society.
If this is all true about telepathy, what does it all mean? What does this mean to Transhumanists? Well, now I'm pretty sure that posthumans will have telepathy in the strong sense of the term, and possibly precognition. It may be achieved by future breakthroughs in psychopharmacology, neurology, or through advanced meditative technologies (or a combination of all three). How our relationships will change with each other and our place in the physical world is anybody's guess. I hope to write more on this particular topic in the near future.
2002.08.15
ET
I just finished listening to CBC's Quirks & Quarks. They had a special on about how we should react to first contact with an extra terrestrial civilization. It was a hard listen for many reasons, namely outdated science and an utter lack of imagination. I'm not sure that we can accurately speculate as to the nature of extra terrestrial life any more. I do not believe that aliens will arrive in spaceships, nor will they have any kind of political or cultural structure that we can relate to. I seriously doubt that we'll communicate via primitive radiowaves. It is unlikely that they will be organic or even humanoid; they would probably arrive as some kind of superintelligent machine consciousness, or in nanotechnological form (see Kurzweil, 1999), or even as a copy of themselves encoded in electromagnetic waves.
My point is this: extra terrestrial life is nothing like we think it is. We have no idea what our own civilization will be like in 50 years, let alone an advanced alien race. The human species is most likely on the verge of a technological singularity. How superintelligence will change our lives is still anybody's guess. It would appear that the human race will emerge from the 21st century as an entirely new species, or as several different new species. It's very likely that we'll be cyborg. Will advances in quantum computing and physics introduce new frontiers for exploration? Is the physical world really worth our trouble? How will consciousness change after superintelligence? How will we apply nanotechnology? What about our morals and goals? Will we adopt the hedonistic imperative? Or will we go into the depths of space as an expanding bubble of intelligence (see Hans Moravec)? We simply do not know yet!
I will say this, however: if an advanced intelligence does arrive at our planet sometime in the next few years, the proper response should probably be: "Please show us mercy."
2002.08.14
Dinosaurs and Intelligent Life
Some paleontologists have speculated that had the asteroid not smashed into the earth 65 million years ago that eventually one species of dinosaur would have evolved human-like intelligence and developed civilizations (e.g. the Troodon). I think this is highly unlikely. First of all, the dinosaurs had a 250 million year reign, and during all that time nothing even came close to being human-like. Moreover, the environment was not conducive for intelligence to evolve. Dinosaurs had to adapt physically rather than cognitively. What I mean by this is that dinosaurs were so fierce and brutal, that they had to adapt by evolving either fiercer predatory skills or improved defensive traits (e.g. speed, size, and armour). Intelligence, while surely beneficial to some dinosaurs, was always secondary in importance to physical prowess. And finally, the dinosaur morphology did not lend itself to tool making. They had short and awkward arms, which greatly inhibited their ability to manipulate the environment in ways that early humans could.
2002.08.13
Drake Equation
According to SETI, the N in the Drake Equation stands for "the number of civilizations in the Milky Way Galaxy whose electromagnetic emissions are detectable." In other words, N stands for the number of civilizations in our galaxy that have comparable technology to our own. Carl Sagan believed the number was around 10. Many people believe that Sagan was being unreasonably pessimistic, and that surely there must be more advanced life in our galaxy. I, on the other hand, believe that Sagan was overly optimistic. I would put the figure to N=<0.1>0.01 (i.e. 1 in 10 to 1 in 100 galaxies contain advanced intelligent life). In my estimation, technologically advanced civilizations are extremely rare. We are a freak of nature. Too many different and improbable variables had to come into play for us to advance from tree dwelling mammals to the atom-splitting species we are today.
I believe the galaxy is teeming with life. However, as complexity of life increases, prevalency decreases. There are probably millions of earth-like planets in our galaxy with prokaryote and eukaryotic life forms. There are probably thousands upon thousands of earth-like planets with complex animals such as fish, reptiles, and mammals. It is likely that there are hundreds of planets with primate or hominid-type creatures. And it is likely that there are dozens of intelligent species stuck in hunter-gatherer lifestyles. It is quite likely that the steps from hunter-gatherer to agrarian to feudal to industrial are far more difficult than we assume. But perhaps the most difficult evolutionary step is the one that causes a primate-like creature endowed with long arms, dexterous hands, and a large brain, to suddenly become bi-pedal -- an evolutionary quirk that still defies proper explanation (see Elaine Morgan, 1982). Humans are a truly bizarre organism.
2002.08.12
Humans and Technology
We have a symbiotic relationship with technology. We are dependant on technology for survival, while technology cannot replicate and evolve without our intervention (at least for the time being). Moreover, we are entrenched in a positive feedback loop. We make technology, which in turn enables us to make better technology, which in turn enables us to make even better technology, and so on.
2002.08.12
Intelligence and Rationality (Part V)
As discussed in Part IV, sentience is a qualitative trait that varies from species to species. Its strength is dependant on the sophistication of an organism’s communicative capabilities; the more social the animal, the more sentient it is (the sense of self increases as the interfacing capabilities of a consciousness increases). If a mind cannot communicate with another mind, then self-awareness is unlikely, if not impossible. In a very significant way, sentience is dependant on the presence of other minds. Thus, I theorize that a sentient consciousness cannot exist unless it can interface (or network) with another consciousness.
What are the ways in which two consciousnesses can interface and transfer data? There are many: verbal and written language, facial expressions, body language, chemical transference (e.g. pheromones), and many more (some of which we may not even be aware of, such as telepathy or telepathic-like communication that is experienced at a subconscious (or conscious) level). Also, our verbal and written languages can be classified as technologies, and like our other technologies, they are subject to improvements. While our biological communicative skills remain largely unchanged, our verbal/written skills are steadily evolving and gaining in sophistication. As a result, our sense of self may continue to increase.
A mind can collect data not only from another consciousness, but from the environment as well (including predators and the non-living environment). Our surroundings are constantly conveying information to us, and our minds can perceive this data using sight, sound, smell, touch, and taste. Thus, data reception from the environment is another player in the consciousness game. However, minds cannot transfer data to the environment. Minds can only transfer data to other minds -- a crucial step in the evolution of self-awareness. I don't believe that an organism can evolve a strong sense of self without significant bi-directional communication skills. Sensory environmental stimuli by itself will not result in the emergence of sentience. Many simple organisms (such as insects, amphibians, and fish) perceive the environment using their senses, but these perceptions control the organism's behaviour; there is no conscious analysis. Their instinctual scripts activate based on their interpretation of the environment at any given time. Also, bees are capable of transferring messages to other bees (namely, the location of good flowers), but again, there is no self-conscious intent on the part of the communicating bee; sentience is negligible as instinct dominates over self.
But as members of the same species begin to communicate with each other, and as this results in better survival strategies, both communication skills and sentience can improve over time. Strong sensory capabilities may be a direct correlate to the rise of consciousness and intelligence, but strong bi-directional communicative capabilities are a direct correlate to sentience.
2002.08.12
Human Reproduction & Sexuality
I've been reading up on Carl Djerassi recently, and he brings up a good point about human reproduction and sexuality. Djerassi, the inventor of the birth control pill, argues that couples currently leave fertilization to pure chance. Parents, aside from deciding to have a child, have no control as they roll the genetic dice. This limitation, says Djerassi, will eventually be a thing of the past, as couples will be able to select many characteristics of their offspring. In such a world, the act of sexual intercourse would be strictly recreational, while human reproduction would be left to the lab. This would almost certainly facilitate another sexual revolution on par with the effects of the birth control pill which was introduced in the 1960s.
2002.08.06
New Logo
Thanks, Paul -- it looks great.
2002.08.04
Intelligence and Rationality (Part IV)
Are animals conscious in the same sense that humans are? Are they sentient? If so, what is to distinguish between human sentience and animal sentience? I believe that sentience, or the sense of self, is experienced by both humans and many animals. Most of the larger mammals (particularly social animals such as pack animals and the primates) probably experience a greater sense of self than we have traditionally assumed. When a dog begs for a piece of chocolate, in his own mind, using the canine analog to semantic language, he is saying to himself: "I really like chocolate, and I would like to have some." To me, that is not only a sign of intelligence, but of self-awareness as well. The dog is not acting on instinct (or set scripts) alone. The dog is exerting a certain degree of free-will and subjective preference (qualia).
Sentience and language capabilities are a direct correlate. Dogs, as descendants of wolves, are pack animals, and pack animals are social creatures. They communicate which each other using body language and physical interactions. It's this same communicative neural hard-wiring that has enabled dogs to follow verbal commands from their human companions (and probably also explains why humans have the capacity for verbal language). Since dogs have fairly strong communication skills, I believe they are quite self-aware. I'm also starting to think that animals such as elephants, whales, and primates are quite sentient (we may need to rethink animal rights issues as a result; for more on this particular topic, see Peter Singer).
Aside from language skills, consciousness and sentience do not appear to be traits that are directly coded into our brains. Rather, consciousness may be an emergent effect of the brain's activities (see Kurzweil, 1999). Every atom in our brain gets replaced during the course of our lives, yet we still feel that we are the same person.
However, I think it's fair to say that humans are more sentient than the other animals. Due to our greater intelligence, language skills, and culture, we are better able to conceptualize and verbalize the sense of self. A 'lesser' primate, I would argue, with a few neural tweaks and enhancements (particularly in the language centers), could conceivably have a similar sense of self that humans have. Thus, sentience is a qualitative characteristic; there are low, medium, and high levels of self-awareness. Humans currently have the highest sense of self. We are capable of verbalizing: "I think, therefore I am." Additionally, we have existential awareness, we are aware of our own mortality, we are empathetic, we worry, and we plan for the future. But by no means have we reached the pinnacle of sentience. I believe that as we further develop our physical selves, and as we learn more about the nature of our existence, our sense of self will also continue to evolve and expand. And who knows -- for all we know, in the large scheme of things, we may have, in relative terms, the self-awareness of a goldfish.
2002.08.04
Commentary [updated from 2002.07.29, now removed]
Should the human race adopt a mission statement? Yes. We need to develop our sciences and ourselves so that we are no longer at nature's mercy. Richard Dawkins put it well: "I want to change the world in which I live so that natural selection no longer applies." This does not imply that nature has no value or that it is 'bad'. Just because we are getting better at controlling nature doesn't mean that we are somehow outside of it. We will always be a part of nature, and we should seek to establish and maintain an effective harmony with it.
There are two popular counter-arguments to this stance: we must 1) stop 'playing God' and 2) allow nature to follow its course. As a secular humanist, I reject the first argument. Humans are in control of their own destiny, and they are accountable to themselves, the entire species, and all life on this planet. We did not ask for these responsibilities, but as the most intelligent, self-aware, and technologically/culturally advanced species on this planet, we have a moral obligation to accept those responsibilities. There is no higher power at work that will solve our problems for us; to believe otherwise is irresponsible, if not delusional. As for the second argument, we have been 'tampering' with nature for the past 13,000 years, if not longer. It is impossible to live on this planet and not 'tamper' with it. We are as biological as any other creature on Earth. Some examples of this include our tool making skills, agriculture (which is artificial selection, aka genetic engineering), and our medical sciences (are we 'tampering' with nature when we cure a disease or immunize ourselves?). Another reason for rejecting the second argument is the 'conscious nature' fallacy. People often refer to nature as Mother Nature, or as some other quasi-sentient entity that knows what it's doing. This is simply not the case. Nature is a broad term used to describe the emergent effects of many different laws at play, namely physical and chemical reactions and natural selection. If I may quote Dawkins again: "The universe we observe has precisely the properties we should expect if there is, at bottom, no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind, pitiless indifference. "
And yet, humans have assigned a high moral value to the end results of these processes, namely life and existence itself. Why? Because intelligent life is capable of morally transcending the laws of nature. Most of us do not believe that 'survival of the fittest' is acceptable social behaviour. Instead, as we become more aware of ourselves, and as our collective intelligence increases, we are becoming morally and ethically stronger. For example, our empathy skills are increasing with each generation; the more we know, the better we can understand and sympathize with all life. Gender, racial, cultural, sexual, ageist, disabled, and class prejudices are slowly dissipating from collective and personal consciousnesses. Violence is gradually becoming an unacceptable way of resolving disputes. These trends will be sure to continue in the future, but only if we continue to seek a deeper understanding of ourselves and our existence.
2002.08.02
Transhumanism
Some Transhumanists have used the software analogy to describe the pending improvements to the human species, claiming that we are working towards Humanity version 2.0. While this is somewhat apropos of what Transhumanism is working to bring about, taking the analogy further reveals some of the dangers and pitfalls we need to avoid en route.
For example, would we start applying such terms as 'beta units,' and 'bugs' (or is that 'known issues' according to the Microsoft lexicon?) to posthuman works in progress? Personally, I wouldn't want to have children that are de facto beta versions of a posthuman (i.e. protoposthumans), full of genetic and technological defects. Yuck. The transition to a posthuman condition must be managed better than that. Also, the term Humanity 2.0, as it now stands, is meaningless. I am not sure that we can or should define a Humanity 2.0, other than a commitment to the increased health and general improvement of the species. In the future we should only describe a human as being either human or posthuman. Thus, a posthuman is to be defined as anyone who has had their genetic information altered (either before or after birth), or anyone who has had an implanted and somewhat permanent technological augmentation or enhancement. [On this last point, that I use a calculator doesn't make me posthuman, even though it's giving me abilities far beyond what I am naturally capable of. But if that calculator were to be permanently imbedded in my body somehow, then that would make me posthuman.]
We need to travel this path slowly and steadily. There will be no declaration of Humanity 2.0. We will just get better and healthier, dealing with each biological and technological issue as they come. There will be problems and side effects, though (how could there not be?), and top priority should be placed on managing and minimizing those problems. Talking about 'versions' and 'revisions' is contrary to the Transhumanist vision which seeks instead to honour the dignity and well-being of all humankind in all their forms.
2002.08.02
Quantum Physics
According to Hugh Everett’s Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum physics, the world is not as it appears. It’s interesting to see how the mind-body problem continues to persist in science and philosophy, and is arguably stronger than ever. Specifically, the issue is with the phenomenon known as quantum ‘splitting,’ or ‘mind-splitting.’ Essentially, every time you’re forced to make an observation or decision, you get copied (or split) into the other worlds of all probable outcomes. You, an observer, do not notice the persistent splitting. You’re just observing outcome after outcome after outcome. Life appears seamless and coherent. Little do you realize that all possible outcomes are being perceived by your consciousness’s copies in the other worlds; and just like you, they don't notice the splitting either. Their worlds are just as coherent as yours. This is why some quantum physicists are starting to refer instead to the Many Histories Interpretation. For example, take the Schrodinger’s Cat thought experiment. According to this exercise, the moment you check to see if the cat is dead or alive, you are split into one of two possible states: one that observes the dead cat and one that observers the living cat. [The mind-splitting phenomenon came to mind recently after an interesting occurrence here in Ontario last week. During the course of one single day, a man won $50,000 at the track betting on a long shot and he won $12.5 million in the lottery. My reaction? Well, ya -- in an infinite universe where all probable outcomes are observed, this is going to happen from time to time, and some seemingly miraculous events will be observed by us in our own historical time-line.]
July 1, 2002
July 2002
2002.07.31
New Section
Sentient Developments now has a newsgroup. Feel free to start any discussions, or add your comments, questions, retorts, or anything that relates to this Website.
2002.07.28
Section Removal
I removed the Buddhism section because I felt that it deviated too far from the scope of this Website. Perhaps some other time, some other Website, some other incarnation...
2002.07.28
Intelligence and Rationality (Part III)
I am filled with astonishment that a computer could evolve through natural selection, but that's exactly what has happened here on earth. Any organism that has a brain actually has a little computer that helps it navigate through life. Until now, we have failed to conceptualize this about our minds, mostly because we lacked the proper language to describe it. How could biologists in the 19th century regard the brain as a computer without any frame of reference? And whenever science fails to describe how something works, the inevitable reaction seems to be the application of divine or mystic intervention. The path to understanding our consciousness has experienced this rule, and vitalogy remains a common conviction.
Science is the ability to accurately describe natural phenomenon using language. Language evolves over time and new words are added regularly. Technological innovations contribute to this trend, as new words have to be applied to describe new concepts and devices. For example, every computer has a gadget in it that that controls its functions and computations. The word 'processor' was chosen to describe this device. Now that we understand the brain as a computer, we can use the language of computation to describe our minds. Thus, we need to start referring to our consciousnesses as processors. More specifically, our consciousness needs to be regarded as a massively parallel sentient processor.
Our processor performs a very important role: it is the moment by moment cognition that we do. Breaking it down further, it's how we compute (i.e. think), learn, make decisions, retrieve data, and perceive sensory data from the environment. As time elapses, the processor's experiences are recorded into memory -- and it does this fairly poorly, I might add; the things we remember vs. the things we forget virtually betray any semblance of rationality. Moreover, our memories contain such cursory and vague recollections -- it's very hard to remember an event exactly as it happened. I heard one theory recently that suggested that we remember things based on their importance to us. That sounds like it could be right, but that means our processor has to decide what's important, and therefore, how to prioritize it in our memory banks for future reference. I believe this is a largely autonomous function dictated by evolutionary vestigial tendencies (i.e. our bodies intrinsically know what's important to remember, like the consequence of putting a hand in fire). But we can also consciously decide to remember something, like the lyrics of a song or the lineup of the 1968 Toronto Maple Leafs. Yet, even when we consciously decide to remember something, we just can't quite recall it exactly.
How our processor functions and how our memories are stored are two discreet tasks. People who cannot store and access their memories are still conscious. (e.g. Alzheimer's victims, people with no short-term memory, amnesiatics, etc.). But quite obviously, this is a terrible and unfortunate way to live. Future health professionals will better understand this and be capable of treating people with these conditions.
But by no means do we understand the big picture of consciousness or existence. We still need to figure out what the link is between conscious observation and the coherence of the physical world. Clearly, conscious thought is tied to the quantum. What does this mean in the large scheme of things? Does mind-splitting answer this question? See the Many Worlds Interpretation FAQ and Stuart Hameroff for more. Also, how does a processor become self-aware? What kind of a software tweak is that? What does it mean to be self-aware? Is a dog sentient? How about a goldfish? Does "I think therefore I am" still apply? I don't know. Perhaps we need to look at such things as our free-will, rationality, and decision making skills.
What are the ramifications to transhumanists of this insight into the human brain? Again, I remain largely optimistic, but it introduces some interesting (if not unsettling) realities for the future. Not only will future posthumans insist on ownership of their personal genetic information, but their mind's source code as well. What a strange new world we're heading into. But the positive aspects are profound. We we be able to rev up our brain's software. We'll get rid of the bad parts (e.g. psychological disorders), improve upon the good parts (e.g. memory, intelligence, math skills, etc.), and maybe even add some new unforeseen parts. I look forward to meeting Homo sapiens sapiens v2.0.
As a final note, I still believe that humans will merge with their machines. The suggestion that we will live alongside our artificially intelligent robot progeny is not true. We are robots, too. Why would we not improve ourselves, and instead unleash superior replacements? Obviously, we shouldn't and we won't. Unless, of course, collective stupidity and shortsightedness reigns. This is one of the reasons why transhumanism interests me.
2002.07.27
Updated Section
Added a new prediction to the Prescience section.
2002.07.27
Updated Section
Added a new quote to the Buddhism section.
2002.07.26
Updated Section
Added some new quotes (Moravec, Einstein, Pinker, Welesa, FM-2030, Rush lyrics, etc.)
2002.07.26
Updated Article
Version 3.0 of The Drive to be Posthuman: An Inexorable and Necessary Human Imperative has been posted.
2002.07.26
New Section
Buddhism - exploring Buddhism, existence, values, and the future through the lens of quantum physics.
2002.07.26
Intelligence and Rationality (Part II)
How did the goldfish evolve such that it has hardwired rules to govern its actions? If its reaction to a situation resulted in a poor finish, namely death or severe injury, then that script would not be passed down genetically. On the other hand, if its action resulted in continued survival, then that script would be passed down. For example, if the fish was being attacked by a predator, and it survived the experience by swimming away as fast as it could -- the action a result of an existing hardwired script, one that was a mutation of a previous one -- then that was a valid strategy (or gene) as far as the fish is concerned. Thus, the 'good decision' script gets passed on.
The pain and pleasure principle works as well, and it's needed in a discussion of human decision making. Animals that avoid pain tend to do better than those that don't. Thus, actions that result in pain are a warning to the organism: "what you're doing is bad!" Consequently, actions that result in pleasure are affirmations of decisions that are good for the organism (e.g. eating, sex, playing).
But humans aren't puppets to hardwired scripts. We exhibit common sense and rational decision making skills. How did we evolve this? Why would this be a good adaptation? For an intelligent species like humans, making decisions involves rational thought. We know we're being irrational when we experience cognitive dissonance, which is perceived as mental pain. Thus, humans tend to avoid making decisions that would result in this sort of psychological anguish. To compliment this, humans developed the cognitive skills to declare something as 'correct' or 'incorrect' (not necessarily in the moral sense, but more in the rational or computational sense, i.e. 2+2=4 is correct). We simply refuse to acknowledge the verity of a statement that is quite obviously incorrect. As humans evolved over millions of years, whenever they made rational decisions, they fared better than when they did not. In other words, rational understandings of the environment and rational decision making are good adaptations, as it endowed humans with the ability to select safer and more predictable courses of action.
2002.07.24
Eschatology
I believe that there is a strong possibility that further scientific and philosophical advancements in quantum physics will result in an eschatological paradigm shift. Three things are becoming increasingly clear IMO: 1) quantum physics is actually quantum computation that expresses the physical world (see David Deutsch), 2) the cosmos is infinite (good places to start on this topic include the anthropic principle and the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum physics), and 3) consciousness is directly tied to the quantum (see Stuart Hameroff). This tells me that Buddhist beliefs of rebirth and the denial of the permanent self is more in tune with what actually happens than traditional Western religious eschatologies. I am starting to believe that our consciousness is expressed an infinite number of times in an infinite number of ways, and that we always find ourselves observing a universe (see Hans Moravec's paper, "Simulation, Consciousness, Existence").
If this is correct (and somehow scientifically demonstrable and obvious), can we expect this revelation to trickle down from the sciences and into the general public's awareness? Can this result in a new appraisal and approach to life? Or, am I making too much of this? Would this essentially change nothing? Would it really matter to people that they are eternal and that a kind of 'reincarnation' is possible? Can Buddhism and science help us craft a moral and ethical code for the social realities of the 21st century? Will superintelligence clear up some of this confusion?
2002.07.24
Intelligence and Rationality (Part I)
Intelligence is a good adaptation, and I'm not just talking about intelligence on the scale of the human brain. Goldfish are also intelligent, but in a much more primitive way. What does it mean to be 'intelligent'? I believe it's directly tied to the notion of rationality. What do I mean by rationality? The ability to make a 'good' or 'right' or 'satisficing' decision after processing data. When we're being rational, we're actually following rules. Thus, 'intelligence' is another way of saying 'rational' which is another way of saying 'the ability to follow rules.' Goldfish follow rules that are hardwired into their brains. I doubt if a goldfish actually learns anything during its lifetime; predetermined scripts tell it what to do when it's facing specific situations (so it also has to be able to properly interpret situations and feelings, which is why the senses are so important -- the goldfish needs to input the data before it can process and act on it). Humans, on the other hand, do learn, but they must make decisions and exercise common sense that fall outside of hardwired scripts. In a sense, humans have to make up rules for situations as they go along. And the more rational humans are about those rules, the better off they are getting through the day (e.g. walking in front of a bus is irrational because we know the consequences).
2002.07.24
Biological Realities
I'm not entirely sure what a distant-future posthuman will look like, especially if artificial components are involved. At what age should a person be allowed to augment themselves? Obviously, genetic changes will be biologically intrinsic, but not the mechanical. I've also heard about the prospect of developing artificial wombs that would 'free' women from the dangers and inconveniences of having to carry and give birth to a child. Before we enter into this Huxlian world, we should bear a few things in mind.
First, all fetus's require nutrients from the mother's blood stream. This means that an artificial womb would somehow have to duplicate the mother's blood exactly. Moreover, the mother's blood changes hour to hour depending on her intake; pregnant women have unpredictable food cravings and aversions during pregnancy -- all of which are evolutionary adaptations that help in the gestational process. Moreover, infants require motion, tactile stimulation (e.g. expectant mothers rub their bellies), and auditory and even visual stimulation. After child birth, babies need to breastfeed. Pregnancy prepares the mother's body physically and hormonally to nuture infants outside of the womb. Newborns require skin-to-skin contact that helps in bonding and perceptual development. And no artificial baby milk has come even close to matching mother's milk. There is more than just the ideal proportion of proteins, fats (including long-chain polyunsaturated lipids that are essential for optimal neurodevelopment), and carbohydrates, vitamins, and minerals present in breastmilk that change even during one feed; breastmilk also contains human-specific immune factors, growth factors, anti-bacterial agents, anti-viral properties, anti-fungal properties, and anti-inflammatory properties. Also, the health risks associated with not bearing children or lactating must be weighed against the potential health benefits to a woman for not bearing children. Specifically, breast, ovarian, and uterine cancers are significantly lower for women who have born and breastfed children.
Thus, what may appear as 'dangerous' or 'inconvenient' from a woman's perspective may be necessary to guarantee the physical and cognitive health of the baby. [thanks A for the input]
2002.07.24
Singularity
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky's, Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
2002.07.23
Futuriography
This reality check is brought to you by Robin Hanson: "Dreams of Autarky." In this paper, Hanson argues that the majority of futurists have overestimated the degree of change that's been slated to occur in the 21st century.
2002.07.23
Transhumanist Art
Stelarc
2002.07.22
A Democratic Transhumanist Agenda (from James Hughes's article, Democratic Transhumanism)
1. Build the transhumanist movement
2. Guarantee morphological freedom and bodily autonomy; people should have a right to change and control their minds and bodies, including the right to take drugs, have themselves frozen, opt for physician-assisted suicide, and use germinal choice technologies on themselves and their children
3. Defend scientific research and technological innovation from Luddite bans, while embracing the need for public regulation for safety and efficacy
4. Protect scientific access to knowledge from overly aggressive intellectual property law
5. Expand federal funding for research into transhuman technologies, including genetic therapy, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence
6. Create national health plans which guarantee equitable access to life extension and enhancement technologies
7. Expand federal support to education, especially math, science, engineering and medical education
8. Provide job retraining and a guaranteed minimum income to the structurally unemployed
9. Solidarize with sexual, cultural, and racial minorities, especially with morphological minorities such as the disabled and transgendered
10. Support rights for great apes, dolphins and whales
11. Expand, strengthen and democratize transnational governance to regulate the apocalyptic threats from transhuman technologies.
2002.07.22
The Age of Transition
I've never been a big fan of Newt Gingrich, but he recently described the coming decades as 'The Age of Transition.' This was a remarkably apt observation, and I hope that he will start to inspire other political leaders to get their heads out of the sand and start working towards more progressive bioethical policies.
In the article "Vision for the Converging Technologies" Newt Gingrich proposes to reinvent government for the "Age of Transition" that we have just entered, where the combined effect of converging NBIC (Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno) technologies accelerates. Gingrich believes in explaining new options to the voters in the clearest possible language: "They may not understand plasma physics or the highest levels of the human genome project. But they can surely understand the alternative between having Alzheimer and not having it". Explaining his vision for the Age of Transition, he proposes riding the NBIC wave instead of trying to delay it, and acknowledges that current public policies and initiatives are moving much slower than technological change.
2002.07.22
Nature Vs. Nurture
The human brain is a computer. It's a wonderfully complex parallel processor that runs at about 1016 calculations per second (Kurzweil, 1999). We don't have a computer that comes even close to this kind of power -- but the gap is narrowing. Yet, the hardware appears to be the easy part of the problem -- it's the software that will prove to be the most difficult challenge for the developers of AI. They have to create a dynamic software program that can learn and make decisions. Thankfully, we have our own brains as a model, and AI engineers are looking at exactly that -- the reverse engineering of the human brain.
The learning aspect may be easier than the decision making. We're born with a certain amount of 'ROM' hardwired into our brains. For the most part, our ROM is our autonomous nervous system and other behaviours that are beyond our control (e.g. newborn rooting behaviour, hormonal influences, the fight-or-flight response, etc.). Most importantly, the ROM provides us with the kick-start program to life so that we can eventually become autonomous decision making machines.
We also have a 'RAM' component to our minds; we're able to learn and adapt to our environment regardless of what our ROM says. So long as we're properly nurtured, educated (especially language), and introduced to our environment, our dynamic 'software' develops properly (for example, if a child is deprived of language during the first 2-4 years of life, the proper cognitive tools for learning language completely fail to develop, and the person forever loses the the capacity for language). [note: if AI engineers aren't looking at early childhood development for clues, they really should.]
Both the ROM and RAM can be damaged -- we are machines after all, and even the software needs a physical place to reside. The mind-software can be damaged by physical injury, or improper/insufficient development such as physical and mental abuse, improper socialization, and a myriad of genetic disorders.
But how do we make decisions? Is it a kind of fuzzy logic? Do we access scripts and somehow choose the proper course of action? Or is there a free-will 'algorithm' in there somewhere? This question goes beyond my expertise, but I believe the capacity to be rational is something we need to understand.
2002.07.22
Posted new predictions in the Prescience section.
2002.07.21
Quantum Physics
We now know of two worldly domains: the physical and the quantum realms. And it appears that the quantum expresses what we observe as the physical. What does this mean in the large scheme of things? Here's a good Edge article by Lee Smolin.
2002.07.21
Posted a new prediction in the Prescience section.
2002.07.21
Rise of the machines...not!
I do not believe that we will be superceded by our artificial progeny; instead, we will merge and evolve with them.
2002.07.20
Contact Info
You can now e-mail me at sentdev@hotmail.com. If you tried to e-mail me at my old address at some point over the past two weeks, I probably didn't get it. Sorry for the inconvenience.
2002.07.19
Observation: After the Turn of the Century Syndrome
During the 90s, as the turn of the century drew nearer, it was hard to ignore the near hysterical millenarism that pervaded the popular psyche (we are already mocking ourselves over the Y2K fiasco). As it was happening though, many people were quite self-aware of their irrationality and the ludicrousness of what they were doing; they were reminded of historical precedents and the millenarism associated with previous turn-of-the-centuries. Similarly, once the century had safely rolled by, the exact opposite sentiment emerged: hyper-optimism. During the early part of the 20th century, a number of idealists espoused their 'glorious' and utopian visions for the 20th century, namely communists, fascists, and anarchists. I see the same pattern repeated today as the extropians and transhumanists dream of 21st century technotopia. However, there's a major difference: both groups are quite aware of history and self. The transhumanists in particular are very sensitive to the totalitarian comparisons. But unlike the fascists and communists of the early 20th century, transhumanists do not seek power, merely to influence it. Moreover, both ideologies celebrate the rights of the individual, which is the opposite stance of totalitarianism which seeks to destroy man. And finally, transhumanism is a broad-based and grass-roots movement that contains an entire spectrum of sub-ideologies (leftists, libertarians, greens, spiritualists, feminists, etc. For an excellent overview read James Hughes's paper, The Politics of Transhumanism).
2002.07.19
Theory on Human Evolution
Steven Jay Gould and Richard Dawkins focused on different aspects of evolutionary biology that at times put the two at lauger heads. Gould was a proponent of the punctuated equilibria theory, while Dawkins prefers the gradualist approach and talks of morphological fitness peaks. I believe that the two perspectives are complementary and can be used together. For example, I believe that the human race is currently in a state of punctuated equilibria and that we may eventually settle into a fitness peak for a very long time (this would only happen if there is a physical and conceptual limit to technological advancement -- which may not be the case!). We have been in such a state for the past 13,000 years because of our capacity for technological innovation. Our physical evolution is still quite slow, but our technological enhancements have enabled us to evolve at a frightening pace -- and it's getting faster (see James Gleick's Faster and Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines). It appears that the 21st century will see humans physically merge with technology; we are turning into cyborgs. Thus, the punctuated equilibria phase may last for some time yet. Eventually, however, there may come a time when we cannot advance technically any further. This would result in a morphological fitness peak, where we would remain relatively unchanged for a long time. [Of course, what would a discussion of human evolution be without one of my patented doomsday warnings: Gould noted that evolution has no direction or focus, and that it eventually leads to awkward over-specialisation; past reward is no indication of future gain. However, the human race has two major advantages over blind evolution: we are evolution that has become conscious of itself (see Julian Huxley), and we will soon have the capacity to completely control our evolutionary destiny.]
2002.07.19
Posted a new prediction in the Prescience section.
2002.07.19
Hopeful & Wishful Thinking
Virtual reality is limiting in its own right. What I'm really hoping for is mind-to-mind communication. Imagine if you and I could have a two-way conversation with each other with our consciousnesses instead of our mouths or fingers typing on a keyboard. Imagine if you could access my memory for some information that you require, or for an experience that I've had. With a bit of hand-waving technology, I can foresee the day when we post our streams of consciousness online on our personal Web pages: "Hey, I wonder what George is thinking about right now? Well, what's his URL?" In addition, you might even be able to feel my emotions. Concerned about privacy? Well, don't worry -- there may come a day when there will be no such thing, and privacy will be regarded as a relic of the past.
2002.07.19
Metaphysics Theory (revised From 2002.05.29)
The Universe is Finely Tuned for a Great Filter to Exist: Intelligent Life as Infection
Let's assume that the following propositions are true: a) the Great Filter exists and it exists in our future, and b) the universe is a dynamic system that replicates itself, not unlike an organism, and is therefore subject to the laws of natural selection. Let's also assume that our universe is a 'successful adaptation,' and it will have no difficulty reproducing itself. As a side-effect of its adaptation, once in a while intelligent life evolves on a planet. This side-effect has nothing to do with the universe's reproductive cycle, and can therefore be regarded as an infection. However, if intelligent life were allowed to evolve to its full potential, it would eventually figure out how the universe works, and end up controlling its inner workings. This could prove fatal to the universe's reproductive strategy. Therefore, the universe has evolved such that intelligent life will go extinct just prior to its ability to control the universe. [Personally, I don't believe my theory to be true, mostly because if one chooses to apply the fine tuning argument, they must apply it to the notion of the presence of conscious observers (i.e. the universe does not exist without observers)]
2002.07.09
NSF Report
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science
2002.07.08
Transhumanism
I am now a member of the World Transhumanist Association (WTA) and a contributing editor for Transhumanity e-zine.
2002.07.08
Defending Transhumanism
I recently posted my comments on the KurzweilAI page to an article posted by James John Bell entitled 'Technotopia and the Death of Nature.' Here's what I had to say: "James John Bell's assertion that transhumanists "can hardly wait for the Singularity to arrive," and that they "are actively organizing not just to bring the Singularity about, but to counter what they call ‘techno-phobes’ and ‘neo-luddites’” is as sweeping as it is unfair and inaccurate. Not all transhumanists believe in the Singularity, while many of those who do are very worried about its potential negative ramifications. In fact, transhumanists are actively seeking ways in which to ease the transitions of the coming years by encouraging research, foresight, and open discussions. They are not so much ‘countering’ anti-technologists as they are on the defensive; it seems to me that individuals such as Bill Joy and Jeremy Rifkin are the ones on the attack (not to mention Ted Kaczynski). Moreover, transhumanism and environmentalism are not mutually exclusive terms; there are a number of greens that are active members of the transhumanist community. I strongly encourage Bell and others to read up on transhumanism (www.transhumanism.org) and stop proliferating misinformation about this broad-based grass-roots movement." -- July 4, 2002
2002.07.08
Good Article
What's So New In A Newfangled Science? by George Johnson, New York Times.
2002.07.08
Cool Scientist, Writer
2002.07.08
Cool Theologian, Scientist
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881-1955)
2002.07.01
Memetics
Urban legend memes are interesting to consider (as are superstitions and old wives tales). These memes get passed on almost exclusively through word of mouth and are virtually unverifiable. Yet, they strike a chord in the human psyche, enough that one is compelled to pass on the meme to someone else -- even though they know the story is most likely untrue. But therein lies the rub: they often make for such good yarns that it's hard to resist. Thus, wee see the potency of the urban legend meme and its effective 'survival strategy.'
New Section
Sentient Developments now has a newsgroup. Feel free to start any discussions, or add your comments, questions, retorts, or anything that relates to this Website.
2002.07.28
Section Removal
I removed the Buddhism section because I felt that it deviated too far from the scope of this Website. Perhaps some other time, some other Website, some other incarnation...
2002.07.28
Intelligence and Rationality (Part III)
I am filled with astonishment that a computer could evolve through natural selection, but that's exactly what has happened here on earth. Any organism that has a brain actually has a little computer that helps it navigate through life. Until now, we have failed to conceptualize this about our minds, mostly because we lacked the proper language to describe it. How could biologists in the 19th century regard the brain as a computer without any frame of reference? And whenever science fails to describe how something works, the inevitable reaction seems to be the application of divine or mystic intervention. The path to understanding our consciousness has experienced this rule, and vitalogy remains a common conviction.
Science is the ability to accurately describe natural phenomenon using language. Language evolves over time and new words are added regularly. Technological innovations contribute to this trend, as new words have to be applied to describe new concepts and devices. For example, every computer has a gadget in it that that controls its functions and computations. The word 'processor' was chosen to describe this device. Now that we understand the brain as a computer, we can use the language of computation to describe our minds. Thus, we need to start referring to our consciousnesses as processors. More specifically, our consciousness needs to be regarded as a massively parallel sentient processor.
Our processor performs a very important role: it is the moment by moment cognition that we do. Breaking it down further, it's how we compute (i.e. think), learn, make decisions, retrieve data, and perceive sensory data from the environment. As time elapses, the processor's experiences are recorded into memory -- and it does this fairly poorly, I might add; the things we remember vs. the things we forget virtually betray any semblance of rationality. Moreover, our memories contain such cursory and vague recollections -- it's very hard to remember an event exactly as it happened. I heard one theory recently that suggested that we remember things based on their importance to us. That sounds like it could be right, but that means our processor has to decide what's important, and therefore, how to prioritize it in our memory banks for future reference. I believe this is a largely autonomous function dictated by evolutionary vestigial tendencies (i.e. our bodies intrinsically know what's important to remember, like the consequence of putting a hand in fire). But we can also consciously decide to remember something, like the lyrics of a song or the lineup of the 1968 Toronto Maple Leafs. Yet, even when we consciously decide to remember something, we just can't quite recall it exactly.
How our processor functions and how our memories are stored are two discreet tasks. People who cannot store and access their memories are still conscious. (e.g. Alzheimer's victims, people with no short-term memory, amnesiatics, etc.). But quite obviously, this is a terrible and unfortunate way to live. Future health professionals will better understand this and be capable of treating people with these conditions.
But by no means do we understand the big picture of consciousness or existence. We still need to figure out what the link is between conscious observation and the coherence of the physical world. Clearly, conscious thought is tied to the quantum. What does this mean in the large scheme of things? Does mind-splitting answer this question? See the Many Worlds Interpretation FAQ and Stuart Hameroff for more. Also, how does a processor become self-aware? What kind of a software tweak is that? What does it mean to be self-aware? Is a dog sentient? How about a goldfish? Does "I think therefore I am" still apply? I don't know. Perhaps we need to look at such things as our free-will, rationality, and decision making skills.
What are the ramifications to transhumanists of this insight into the human brain? Again, I remain largely optimistic, but it introduces some interesting (if not unsettling) realities for the future. Not only will future posthumans insist on ownership of their personal genetic information, but their mind's source code as well. What a strange new world we're heading into. But the positive aspects are profound. We we be able to rev up our brain's software. We'll get rid of the bad parts (e.g. psychological disorders), improve upon the good parts (e.g. memory, intelligence, math skills, etc.), and maybe even add some new unforeseen parts. I look forward to meeting Homo sapiens sapiens v2.0.
As a final note, I still believe that humans will merge with their machines. The suggestion that we will live alongside our artificially intelligent robot progeny is not true. We are robots, too. Why would we not improve ourselves, and instead unleash superior replacements? Obviously, we shouldn't and we won't. Unless, of course, collective stupidity and shortsightedness reigns. This is one of the reasons why transhumanism interests me.
2002.07.27
Updated Section
Added a new prediction to the Prescience section.
2002.07.27
Updated Section
Added a new quote to the Buddhism section.
2002.07.26
Updated Section
Added some new quotes (Moravec, Einstein, Pinker, Welesa, FM-2030, Rush lyrics, etc.)
2002.07.26
Updated Article
Version 3.0 of The Drive to be Posthuman: An Inexorable and Necessary Human Imperative has been posted.
2002.07.26
New Section
Buddhism - exploring Buddhism, existence, values, and the future through the lens of quantum physics.
2002.07.26
Intelligence and Rationality (Part II)
How did the goldfish evolve such that it has hardwired rules to govern its actions? If its reaction to a situation resulted in a poor finish, namely death or severe injury, then that script would not be passed down genetically. On the other hand, if its action resulted in continued survival, then that script would be passed down. For example, if the fish was being attacked by a predator, and it survived the experience by swimming away as fast as it could -- the action a result of an existing hardwired script, one that was a mutation of a previous one -- then that was a valid strategy (or gene) as far as the fish is concerned. Thus, the 'good decision' script gets passed on.
The pain and pleasure principle works as well, and it's needed in a discussion of human decision making. Animals that avoid pain tend to do better than those that don't. Thus, actions that result in pain are a warning to the organism: "what you're doing is bad!" Consequently, actions that result in pleasure are affirmations of decisions that are good for the organism (e.g. eating, sex, playing).
But humans aren't puppets to hardwired scripts. We exhibit common sense and rational decision making skills. How did we evolve this? Why would this be a good adaptation? For an intelligent species like humans, making decisions involves rational thought. We know we're being irrational when we experience cognitive dissonance, which is perceived as mental pain. Thus, humans tend to avoid making decisions that would result in this sort of psychological anguish. To compliment this, humans developed the cognitive skills to declare something as 'correct' or 'incorrect' (not necessarily in the moral sense, but more in the rational or computational sense, i.e. 2+2=4 is correct). We simply refuse to acknowledge the verity of a statement that is quite obviously incorrect. As humans evolved over millions of years, whenever they made rational decisions, they fared better than when they did not. In other words, rational understandings of the environment and rational decision making are good adaptations, as it endowed humans with the ability to select safer and more predictable courses of action.
2002.07.24
Eschatology
I believe that there is a strong possibility that further scientific and philosophical advancements in quantum physics will result in an eschatological paradigm shift. Three things are becoming increasingly clear IMO: 1) quantum physics is actually quantum computation that expresses the physical world (see David Deutsch), 2) the cosmos is infinite (good places to start on this topic include the anthropic principle and the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum physics), and 3) consciousness is directly tied to the quantum (see Stuart Hameroff). This tells me that Buddhist beliefs of rebirth and the denial of the permanent self is more in tune with what actually happens than traditional Western religious eschatologies. I am starting to believe that our consciousness is expressed an infinite number of times in an infinite number of ways, and that we always find ourselves observing a universe (see Hans Moravec's paper, "Simulation, Consciousness, Existence").
If this is correct (and somehow scientifically demonstrable and obvious), can we expect this revelation to trickle down from the sciences and into the general public's awareness? Can this result in a new appraisal and approach to life? Or, am I making too much of this? Would this essentially change nothing? Would it really matter to people that they are eternal and that a kind of 'reincarnation' is possible? Can Buddhism and science help us craft a moral and ethical code for the social realities of the 21st century? Will superintelligence clear up some of this confusion?
2002.07.24
Intelligence and Rationality (Part I)
Intelligence is a good adaptation, and I'm not just talking about intelligence on the scale of the human brain. Goldfish are also intelligent, but in a much more primitive way. What does it mean to be 'intelligent'? I believe it's directly tied to the notion of rationality. What do I mean by rationality? The ability to make a 'good' or 'right' or 'satisficing' decision after processing data. When we're being rational, we're actually following rules. Thus, 'intelligence' is another way of saying 'rational' which is another way of saying 'the ability to follow rules.' Goldfish follow rules that are hardwired into their brains. I doubt if a goldfish actually learns anything during its lifetime; predetermined scripts tell it what to do when it's facing specific situations (so it also has to be able to properly interpret situations and feelings, which is why the senses are so important -- the goldfish needs to input the data before it can process and act on it). Humans, on the other hand, do learn, but they must make decisions and exercise common sense that fall outside of hardwired scripts. In a sense, humans have to make up rules for situations as they go along. And the more rational humans are about those rules, the better off they are getting through the day (e.g. walking in front of a bus is irrational because we know the consequences).
2002.07.24
Biological Realities
I'm not entirely sure what a distant-future posthuman will look like, especially if artificial components are involved. At what age should a person be allowed to augment themselves? Obviously, genetic changes will be biologically intrinsic, but not the mechanical. I've also heard about the prospect of developing artificial wombs that would 'free' women from the dangers and inconveniences of having to carry and give birth to a child. Before we enter into this Huxlian world, we should bear a few things in mind.
First, all fetus's require nutrients from the mother's blood stream. This means that an artificial womb would somehow have to duplicate the mother's blood exactly. Moreover, the mother's blood changes hour to hour depending on her intake; pregnant women have unpredictable food cravings and aversions during pregnancy -- all of which are evolutionary adaptations that help in the gestational process. Moreover, infants require motion, tactile stimulation (e.g. expectant mothers rub their bellies), and auditory and even visual stimulation. After child birth, babies need to breastfeed. Pregnancy prepares the mother's body physically and hormonally to nuture infants outside of the womb. Newborns require skin-to-skin contact that helps in bonding and perceptual development. And no artificial baby milk has come even close to matching mother's milk. There is more than just the ideal proportion of proteins, fats (including long-chain polyunsaturated lipids that are essential for optimal neurodevelopment), and carbohydrates, vitamins, and minerals present in breastmilk that change even during one feed; breastmilk also contains human-specific immune factors, growth factors, anti-bacterial agents, anti-viral properties, anti-fungal properties, and anti-inflammatory properties. Also, the health risks associated with not bearing children or lactating must be weighed against the potential health benefits to a woman for not bearing children. Specifically, breast, ovarian, and uterine cancers are significantly lower for women who have born and breastfed children.
Thus, what may appear as 'dangerous' or 'inconvenient' from a woman's perspective may be necessary to guarantee the physical and cognitive health of the baby. [thanks A for the input]
2002.07.24
Singularity
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky's, Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
2002.07.23
Futuriography
This reality check is brought to you by Robin Hanson: "Dreams of Autarky." In this paper, Hanson argues that the majority of futurists have overestimated the degree of change that's been slated to occur in the 21st century.
2002.07.23
Transhumanist Art
Stelarc
2002.07.22
A Democratic Transhumanist Agenda (from James Hughes's article, Democratic Transhumanism)
1. Build the transhumanist movement
2. Guarantee morphological freedom and bodily autonomy; people should have a right to change and control their minds and bodies, including the right to take drugs, have themselves frozen, opt for physician-assisted suicide, and use germinal choice technologies on themselves and their children
3. Defend scientific research and technological innovation from Luddite bans, while embracing the need for public regulation for safety and efficacy
4. Protect scientific access to knowledge from overly aggressive intellectual property law
5. Expand federal funding for research into transhuman technologies, including genetic therapy, nanotechnology, robotics and artificial intelligence
6. Create national health plans which guarantee equitable access to life extension and enhancement technologies
7. Expand federal support to education, especially math, science, engineering and medical education
8. Provide job retraining and a guaranteed minimum income to the structurally unemployed
9. Solidarize with sexual, cultural, and racial minorities, especially with morphological minorities such as the disabled and transgendered
10. Support rights for great apes, dolphins and whales
11. Expand, strengthen and democratize transnational governance to regulate the apocalyptic threats from transhuman technologies.
2002.07.22
The Age of Transition
I've never been a big fan of Newt Gingrich, but he recently described the coming decades as 'The Age of Transition.' This was a remarkably apt observation, and I hope that he will start to inspire other political leaders to get their heads out of the sand and start working towards more progressive bioethical policies.
In the article "Vision for the Converging Technologies" Newt Gingrich proposes to reinvent government for the "Age of Transition" that we have just entered, where the combined effect of converging NBIC (Nano, Bio, Info, Cogno) technologies accelerates. Gingrich believes in explaining new options to the voters in the clearest possible language: "They may not understand plasma physics or the highest levels of the human genome project. But they can surely understand the alternative between having Alzheimer and not having it". Explaining his vision for the Age of Transition, he proposes riding the NBIC wave instead of trying to delay it, and acknowledges that current public policies and initiatives are moving much slower than technological change.
2002.07.22
Nature Vs. Nurture
The human brain is a computer. It's a wonderfully complex parallel processor that runs at about 1016 calculations per second (Kurzweil, 1999). We don't have a computer that comes even close to this kind of power -- but the gap is narrowing. Yet, the hardware appears to be the easy part of the problem -- it's the software that will prove to be the most difficult challenge for the developers of AI. They have to create a dynamic software program that can learn and make decisions. Thankfully, we have our own brains as a model, and AI engineers are looking at exactly that -- the reverse engineering of the human brain.
The learning aspect may be easier than the decision making. We're born with a certain amount of 'ROM' hardwired into our brains. For the most part, our ROM is our autonomous nervous system and other behaviours that are beyond our control (e.g. newborn rooting behaviour, hormonal influences, the fight-or-flight response, etc.). Most importantly, the ROM provides us with the kick-start program to life so that we can eventually become autonomous decision making machines.
We also have a 'RAM' component to our minds; we're able to learn and adapt to our environment regardless of what our ROM says. So long as we're properly nurtured, educated (especially language), and introduced to our environment, our dynamic 'software' develops properly (for example, if a child is deprived of language during the first 2-4 years of life, the proper cognitive tools for learning language completely fail to develop, and the person forever loses the the capacity for language). [note: if AI engineers aren't looking at early childhood development for clues, they really should.]
Both the ROM and RAM can be damaged -- we are machines after all, and even the software needs a physical place to reside. The mind-software can be damaged by physical injury, or improper/insufficient development such as physical and mental abuse, improper socialization, and a myriad of genetic disorders.
But how do we make decisions? Is it a kind of fuzzy logic? Do we access scripts and somehow choose the proper course of action? Or is there a free-will 'algorithm' in there somewhere? This question goes beyond my expertise, but I believe the capacity to be rational is something we need to understand.
2002.07.22
Posted new predictions in the Prescience section.
2002.07.21
Quantum Physics
We now know of two worldly domains: the physical and the quantum realms. And it appears that the quantum expresses what we observe as the physical. What does this mean in the large scheme of things? Here's a good Edge article by Lee Smolin.
2002.07.21
Posted a new prediction in the Prescience section.
2002.07.21
Rise of the machines...not!
I do not believe that we will be superceded by our artificial progeny; instead, we will merge and evolve with them.
2002.07.20
Contact Info
You can now e-mail me at sentdev@hotmail.com. If you tried to e-mail me at my old address at some point over the past two weeks, I probably didn't get it. Sorry for the inconvenience.
2002.07.19
Observation: After the Turn of the Century Syndrome
During the 90s, as the turn of the century drew nearer, it was hard to ignore the near hysterical millenarism that pervaded the popular psyche (we are already mocking ourselves over the Y2K fiasco). As it was happening though, many people were quite self-aware of their irrationality and the ludicrousness of what they were doing; they were reminded of historical precedents and the millenarism associated with previous turn-of-the-centuries. Similarly, once the century had safely rolled by, the exact opposite sentiment emerged: hyper-optimism. During the early part of the 20th century, a number of idealists espoused their 'glorious' and utopian visions for the 20th century, namely communists, fascists, and anarchists. I see the same pattern repeated today as the extropians and transhumanists dream of 21st century technotopia. However, there's a major difference: both groups are quite aware of history and self. The transhumanists in particular are very sensitive to the totalitarian comparisons. But unlike the fascists and communists of the early 20th century, transhumanists do not seek power, merely to influence it. Moreover, both ideologies celebrate the rights of the individual, which is the opposite stance of totalitarianism which seeks to destroy man. And finally, transhumanism is a broad-based and grass-roots movement that contains an entire spectrum of sub-ideologies (leftists, libertarians, greens, spiritualists, feminists, etc. For an excellent overview read James Hughes's paper, The Politics of Transhumanism).
2002.07.19
Theory on Human Evolution
Steven Jay Gould and Richard Dawkins focused on different aspects of evolutionary biology that at times put the two at lauger heads. Gould was a proponent of the punctuated equilibria theory, while Dawkins prefers the gradualist approach and talks of morphological fitness peaks. I believe that the two perspectives are complementary and can be used together. For example, I believe that the human race is currently in a state of punctuated equilibria and that we may eventually settle into a fitness peak for a very long time (this would only happen if there is a physical and conceptual limit to technological advancement -- which may not be the case!). We have been in such a state for the past 13,000 years because of our capacity for technological innovation. Our physical evolution is still quite slow, but our technological enhancements have enabled us to evolve at a frightening pace -- and it's getting faster (see James Gleick's Faster and Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines). It appears that the 21st century will see humans physically merge with technology; we are turning into cyborgs. Thus, the punctuated equilibria phase may last for some time yet. Eventually, however, there may come a time when we cannot advance technically any further. This would result in a morphological fitness peak, where we would remain relatively unchanged for a long time. [Of course, what would a discussion of human evolution be without one of my patented doomsday warnings: Gould noted that evolution has no direction or focus, and that it eventually leads to awkward over-specialisation; past reward is no indication of future gain. However, the human race has two major advantages over blind evolution: we are evolution that has become conscious of itself (see Julian Huxley), and we will soon have the capacity to completely control our evolutionary destiny.]
2002.07.19
Posted a new prediction in the Prescience section.
2002.07.19
Hopeful & Wishful Thinking
Virtual reality is limiting in its own right. What I'm really hoping for is mind-to-mind communication. Imagine if you and I could have a two-way conversation with each other with our consciousnesses instead of our mouths or fingers typing on a keyboard. Imagine if you could access my memory for some information that you require, or for an experience that I've had. With a bit of hand-waving technology, I can foresee the day when we post our streams of consciousness online on our personal Web pages: "Hey, I wonder what George is thinking about right now? Well, what's his URL?" In addition, you might even be able to feel my emotions. Concerned about privacy? Well, don't worry -- there may come a day when there will be no such thing, and privacy will be regarded as a relic of the past.
2002.07.19
Metaphysics Theory (revised From 2002.05.29)
The Universe is Finely Tuned for a Great Filter to Exist: Intelligent Life as Infection
Let's assume that the following propositions are true: a) the Great Filter exists and it exists in our future, and b) the universe is a dynamic system that replicates itself, not unlike an organism, and is therefore subject to the laws of natural selection. Let's also assume that our universe is a 'successful adaptation,' and it will have no difficulty reproducing itself. As a side-effect of its adaptation, once in a while intelligent life evolves on a planet. This side-effect has nothing to do with the universe's reproductive cycle, and can therefore be regarded as an infection. However, if intelligent life were allowed to evolve to its full potential, it would eventually figure out how the universe works, and end up controlling its inner workings. This could prove fatal to the universe's reproductive strategy. Therefore, the universe has evolved such that intelligent life will go extinct just prior to its ability to control the universe. [Personally, I don't believe my theory to be true, mostly because if one chooses to apply the fine tuning argument, they must apply it to the notion of the presence of conscious observers (i.e. the universe does not exist without observers)]
2002.07.09
NSF Report
Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science
2002.07.08
Transhumanism
I am now a member of the World Transhumanist Association (WTA) and a contributing editor for Transhumanity e-zine.
2002.07.08
Defending Transhumanism
I recently posted my comments on the KurzweilAI page to an article posted by James John Bell entitled 'Technotopia and the Death of Nature.' Here's what I had to say: "James John Bell's assertion that transhumanists "can hardly wait for the Singularity to arrive," and that they "are actively organizing not just to bring the Singularity about, but to counter what they call ‘techno-phobes’ and ‘neo-luddites’” is as sweeping as it is unfair and inaccurate. Not all transhumanists believe in the Singularity, while many of those who do are very worried about its potential negative ramifications. In fact, transhumanists are actively seeking ways in which to ease the transitions of the coming years by encouraging research, foresight, and open discussions. They are not so much ‘countering’ anti-technologists as they are on the defensive; it seems to me that individuals such as Bill Joy and Jeremy Rifkin are the ones on the attack (not to mention Ted Kaczynski). Moreover, transhumanism and environmentalism are not mutually exclusive terms; there are a number of greens that are active members of the transhumanist community. I strongly encourage Bell and others to read up on transhumanism (www.transhumanism.org) and stop proliferating misinformation about this broad-based grass-roots movement." -- July 4, 2002
2002.07.08
Good Article
What's So New In A Newfangled Science? by George Johnson, New York Times.
2002.07.08
Cool Scientist, Writer
2002.07.08
Cool Theologian, Scientist
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881-1955)
2002.07.01
Memetics
Urban legend memes are interesting to consider (as are superstitions and old wives tales). These memes get passed on almost exclusively through word of mouth and are virtually unverifiable. Yet, they strike a chord in the human psyche, enough that one is compelled to pass on the meme to someone else -- even though they know the story is most likely untrue. But therein lies the rub: they often make for such good yarns that it's hard to resist. Thus, wee see the potency of the urban legend meme and its effective 'survival strategy.'
June 1, 2002
June 2002
2002.06.27
Theory of History
Is human history just “one damned fact another another?” Is it just an unpredictable and chaotic narrative? Or, do ‘great men’ set the course of events? What would happen if we could rewind history back about 2500 years, jumble the people around, and press play again? Would history unfold radically differently or somewhat differently? Obviously, it would not replay identically, but I am quite certain that it would not be too different than what we have witnessed. Social change is most profoundly affected by our interpretation of the environment and how well we can control and draw resources and information from it. So, assuming our 'human history simulation' has the same environment and the same species (but different individuals), why should we expect things to unfold drastically differently?
What are the commonalities? We’ve observed that some things change over time without the intervention of ‘great’ individuals. For example, human society has evolved from band to tribe to chiefdom to state. (see Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel). Additionally, since the late 18th century, societies have increasingly rejected monarchist, authoritarian, and totalitarian rulerships in favour of capitalist democracies (this may be what happens when an 'enlightened,' educated and affluent society faces population pressures, or it may be due to the efficacy of the capitalist system which seems to demand a democratic politic). Liberal democracies and capitalism are the ‘accepted’ modes of political and economic conduct today (see Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man). The (inevitable?) totalitarian experiments of the 20th century were all failures. The Soviet Union and her allies experienced economic and social collapses, while China appears to have no choice but to reform. African nations are also experiencing the democratic urge, albeit slowly. In addition, I would argue that globalization has been a high-level tendency from the very start of human civilizations. Societies are in constant cycles of expansion and consolidation (Europe is finally on this path).
Even certain technological innovations and scientific discoveries are inevitable after certain developmental stages have been attained (e.g. the Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution). The Industrial Revolution was a product of many different innovations and inventions, independent of key historical figures. Does anyone really believe that the existence of cars, planes, computers, and electric toothbrushes are dependent on key inventors? I find it hard to believe that without Edison we wouldn't have the light bulb. And in the sciences, it was only a matter of time before such discoveries as the laws of physics, relativity, and genetics (nature abhors a vacuum). Had Darwin not posited his theory of natural selection, Alfred Russell Wallace (or someone else) would have certainly done so eventually.
I could go on and on about this, but I believe I’ve made my point. Human history is complicated and intricate. Incredible historical figures and societies do influence events. History's micro-events are truly unpredictable. Yet, at a macro level, the great forces and trends of history cannot be attributed to ‘great men’ alone. As Otto von Bismarck said, “The statesman's task is to hear God's footsteps marching through history, and to try to catch on to his coattails as He marches past."
2002.06.27
Observation/Theory
Taylorism (i.e. the 'assembly line' approach to production) was an early attempt at turning the human being into an automated machine, or in other words, a virtual robot. Workers on an assembly line have their actions constrained and scripted, and this is very 'robotic' when you think about it. In a sense, their directives during work are not unlike a set of instructions in a software program. It's no wonder that robotics are playing such a huge role in modern factories. Similarly, people who work in phone support must stick to their scripts. [Note: soldiers are also scripted, but they still retain some autonomy in that individual actions and decision making is allowed and necessary. And furthermore, it can be argued that many of our instinctual behaviours (of which we are mostly unconscious of) are scripts of a sort as well.
2002.06.27
Note: I am currently reading Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines. Ya, I know: what took me so long!? This will inevitably lead to some streams on the topics of AI, the Singularity, consciousness, and the future of intelligence.
2002.06.27
Observation
History is not written by the victors, it is written by the survivors.
2002.06.25
Culture
Added my review of Spielberg's Minority Report to the Articles section.
2002.06.25
Futurology
Added a prediction to the Prescience section.
2002.06.25
Cool Scientist
David Deutsch, quantum theorist
http://www.qubit.org/people/david/David.html
2002.06.25
Cool Philosopher
Nick Bostrom, Yale University, Department of Philosophy
http://www.nickbostrom.com
2002.06.20
Metaphysics For Your Consideration
Okay, so there you are, sitting in front of the computer reading the content of this Website. Please pause for a moment to acknowledge the fact that you are alive at this point in time and observing the universe. Obviously, you are not preborn or dead, otherwise you wouldn't be observing anything. Does it surprise you that you are alive right now and not preborn/dead? Obviously not. Of course you're alive right now. This just happens to be your time. Alright then, let's put this into perspective.
The universe has been around for 15 billion years (that's 15,000,000,000 years). That's a long time. A REALLY long time. And depending on whether the universe eventually contracts or keeps on expanding, it could continue to exist for an equally long time. Let's assume that you live to be 100 years old, and the universe goes on for another 20 billion years. When all is said and done, you only got to observe 0.00003% of the universe's duration (but if the universe goes on to expand forever this figure becomes completely meaningless in its insignificance). Therefore, the fact that you are observing the universe right now at this exact point in time seems highly improbable (at least it seems that way to me). And this says nothing to the events that had to transpire for you to be alive in the first place (e.g. your parents meeting, your grandparents meeting, and so on). So yes, your existence at this point in time is so improbable, it's practically at the point of near infinite improbability. But there you are! observing the universe and reading this meandering article!
Can we take this improbability anywhere, or do we just have to accept it? It's most likely the latter, but let's work with it. Hans Moravec believes that the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum physics may suggest that we live in an infinite universe (see his essay, "Simulation, Consciousness, Existence"). Thus, it is conceivable that each one of us experiences an infinite number of lives. When we're preborn/dead, we don't observe (when we're dead we're absolutely senseless and time cannot be perceived). Moreover, we know from experience that we have no memories of prior lives (deja vu not withstanding). Thus, you are never not observing as far as you are concerned. Or, as Moravec states, "we will always find ourselves in worlds where we exist and never in ones where we don't." (from "Simulation, Consciousness, Existence") The time gaps between lives is irrelevant as you have no sense of time elapsement. So, the moment you die, you are born again, ready to observe your new universe.
So, for all you know, you’ve already read this article an infinite number of times, and you will read it again an infinite number of times. Remind me to do a spell check…
2002.06.20
Metaphysics For Your Consideration
There are times when I think that existence isn't improbable at all. In fact, it may be quite the opposite. In an infinite cosmos, where all observations are made, existence is necessary and completely inevitable.
2002.06.20
Environmentalist Commentary
Will the 21st century be our make-or-break century? I don't see how it can't. In E. O. Wilson's essay, "The Bottleneck: The Future of Life", he states "for every person in the world to reach present U.S. levels of consumption with existing technology would require four more planet earths." I was devastated when I first read that, and my initial instinct was to concede the hopelessness of our situation; it was Thomas Malthus all over again (see his 1798 essay, "The Principles of Population"). Thankfully, however, Malthus's assertion that population numbers increase geometrically while foodstuffs grow at an arithmetic rate was incorrect (or was it?). So, is E. O. Wilson also mistaken? Well, his math is most assuredly right given current growth and consumption rates. Thus, the real issue is: can and will we resolve this real dilemma? In my never ending and futile quest to solve all the world's problems, here are some suggestions:
· the adoption of smarter eating habits in the modern world - we've got to start eating less fast-food and meat (especially beef)
· a pragmatic distribution of resources and technologies is necessary (e.g. renting, leasing, sharing, borrowing, reusing, recycling, restoring, etc.)
· smarter, leaner packaging and bundling of products
· a greater emphasis on efficient and clean energy sources that aren't resource pigs, and alternative materials to replace wood and other natural resources that are hard to replace
I'm sure there are many other tips I'm forgetting, but it's clear that modernized countries cannot go on consuming and producing at the current rate. Perhaps the lifestyle changes that I'm advocating can be summed up in the following credo: live simply. But alas, I remain somewhat pessimistic. Once businesses and people have established a viable standard of operating and living, they almost never voluntarily scale back. The changes that are required will only come about when the environment becomes visibly and obviously stressed, and consequently, when businesses and people will be compelled to change their habits by law.
2002.06.18
Observations in Cosmology
John Archibald Wheeler's mantra is "How come the quantum? How come existence?" Wheeler's recent insight into information physics and the notion that the universe can be understood as a computer (remember, he's not suggesting that the universe is a computer, he's saying it can be understood as a computer) has some serious metaphysical ramifications. By using the analogy to cellular automata, Wheeler noted that the universe and its apparent order could have emerged from chaos [I can't believe how biblical that sounds]. Wheeler believes that quantum theory is the key to understanding this issue. For more on this debate, go here.
2002.06.18
Question
Will futurology ever be able transcend its station as a philosophical endeavor and become a true scientific discipline? Meteorology is a credible (but frustrating) form of futurology, as are the futures markets. I suppose it all depends on how far into the future your prognostications run. I predict that simulations technology will have a lot to say about this over the next 25 years. [Er, did I just make a philosophical prediction, or a scientific one?]
2002.06.18
Observations in Science
Are we currently in another scientific golden age? It seems that every week there's a new study or paper that's extremely thought provoking. For example, we've recently had contributions from John Archibald Wheeler on information physics, Seth Lloyd's article in Physical Review Letters on universal computation capacity, and Stephen Wolfram's book, A New Kind of Science. Actually, cosmology in general has had a collective burst of insight recently. Other examples include advances in quantum computation, string theory (although string theorists seem a little tied up in knots these days -- but check out this quote from Edward Witten: "String theory is 21st century physics that fell accidently in the 20th century."), neurobiology, evolutionary psychology, genomics, AI, information theory, neo-Darwinism, and sociobiology (including consilience and (arguably) memetic socioanalysis). New and exciting scientific disciplines include information physics, the study of extra-solar planets, and planetary geology. Even philosophers have gotten into the act -- some cosmologists have conceded the efficacy of the anthropic principle in their methodologies. As Paul Davies stated, "We can't avoid some anthropic component in our science, which is interesting, because after three hundred years we finally realize that we do matter."
2002.06.18
Books
Here are some books that I've read recently:
- Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies
- James Gleick's Faster: The Acceleration of Just About Everything
- Richard Dawkins's Climbing Mount Improbable
- Sian Griffiths's (editor) Predictions: 30 Great Minds on the Future
2002.06.17
Changes
I made a number of grammatical corrections to this section and added some content to existing streams.
2002.06.17
Observation/Commentary/Social Theory
Both secular and non-secular conceptions of the Teilhardian Omega Point are modern manifestations of religion. As Teilhard said, "There is less difference than people think between research and adoration." Similarly, singularitarianism is a modern version of the salvation/apocalypse dilemma. It's fascinating when historical social patterns repeat themselves; it's even more fascinating when people fail to see it. Yes, we have to acknowledge that we've made some pretty spectacular scientific discoveries over the past 250 years. But I would argue that until we have the Final Theory to Everything, we don't know how far to the finish line we really are! As a result, our Singularity futurology may be as off-the-mark as the Apocalyptic futurology from hundreds of years ago. Remember: our ancestors believed they were being as rational as we believe we are now. We just happen to have more data than they did.
2002.06.17
For Your Consideration:
Is the 'fine tuning' argument absurd? Take this statement, for example: "The universe is finely tuned so that observers can discuss the fine tuning argument." Consequently, does the 'fine tuning' argument mean that the universe is determined? If so, is it an absolute determinism; in other words, if you were to hit the universal rewind button, would everything unfold exactly the way it is unfolding now? I guess my point is this: at what point do we stop saying the universe is finely tuned? At the point where an observer can exist? Why stop there? Thus, virtually everything in the universe could make the claim that the universe is finely tuned for its existence (e.g. my left shoe and this piece of spinach stuck between my front teeth).
2002.06.17
Commentary
Memetic socioanalysis is valuable insofar as it is revealing, provocative, and oftentimes profound. Only time will tell if it's a valid methodology. My main concern with memetics is the suggestion that people are docile hosts to the meme -- the insinuation that people are as unconscious about the reproductive process as the meme. The problem with this is we are conscious of our memes. As a result, we can engineer our memes much like we engineer our livestock or crops. Sure, some memes will survive this weeding process (i.e. a good 'adaptation'), but ultimately, we are in control of which ones get plucked. So, I caution memeticians: do not fixate on the meme itself, but instead, study why the meme was allowed to exist and survive in the first place. In this sense, memetic analyses change nothing.
2002.06.17
For Your Consideration:
Revolutionaries and nihilists understand how data works in society. They are both paradigm destroyers: by 'deleting' old data, they hope to make room for new versions. It's the deliberate and subjective sorting of memes and meme-sets. Similarly, radical fundamentalists try to prevent the dissemination of new contrarian ideas, while groups like the Amish and Mennonites just calmly ignore them altogether. [new memes don't like the Amish, and the Amish don't like them ;-) ]
2002.06.16
Correction
I caught a calculation error in the Fermi Paradox article (I never was good at math). The corrected sentence now reads: "This length of time represents only 0.1% of the total age of the Galaxy, which is 10,000,000,000 (ten billion) years old." My apologies for the error.
2002.06.13
New Article
The Drive to be Posthuman: An Inexorable and Necessary Human Imperative
2002.06.13
Commentary
Karl Marx should go down in history as the most dangerous and irresponsible scientist of all time. It’s one thing to posit a theory of history, or to develop a method of sociological analysis. It’s quite another to promote one’s theories -- which he claimed were scientifically irrefutable and beyond reproach -- in a recipe book that demands violent and merciless social action. Many advocates of Marx believe that the Soviet experience was a perversion of his teachings. These people need to revisit his Communist Manifesto and read it very carefully; there is very little that Lenin and Stalin did that was not prescribed in that book. The end result: a failed social experiment conducted on actual people that resulted in possibly 60 to 80 million deaths.
2002.06.12
Theory
Is it possible that we will eventually know too much about the universe and ourselves, and thus shatter the illusion that is our reality? Or similarly, what if we come predict the fate of our species? I would argue that we're indirectly trying to doing this (e.g. Fermi Paradox, Great Filter, foresight activities). Imagine a scenario where we predict the fate of the human race and discover that nothing can be done to prevent it, and that it will happen in relative short order. [Yikes.]
2002.06.12
Theory
The universe can be understood as a computer that runs algorithms allowing for physical laws (see John Archibald Wheeler and Seth Lloyd). In our universe, the physical laws are such that they allow for the presence of life. What is life? Any discreet system that exists continuously (i.e. uninterruptedly) or replicates over time. In this context, even idea propagation can be considered life-like (i.e. memetics). If this is the case, since the physical laws exist over time, and because they exhibit systemic qualities, can the laws of the universe be regarded as life forms unto themselves (e.g. the law of gravity as life form)? Does that mean the universe is a life form? [By my broad definition, I suppose it has to.]
2002.06.12
Observation
Yesterday's micros are tomorrow's singular macro.
2002.06.12
Observation & Theory
At any given developmental stage, the benefits of technology are equally proportional to their detriments. If you can create heaven, you can create hell.
2002.06.08
Theory
Are hedonistic tendencies a result of our biological heritage? Would the desire for such things as pleasure and happiness disappear with the removal of our biological components? If so, what does this say about artificial intelligence? What about uploading?
2002.06.08
Observation continues to impress me. It is truly becoming the front-end of the Web. You can actually conduct a search through Google by asking it a question (essentially, a more successful take on the Ask Jeeves concept -- and furthermore, a step in the Noosphere direction). But not only that, if the search results fail to yield a desired answer, you can have an associate of Google do the research for you (but at a price). Other cool things that Google can do include a new glossary (definitions for words, phrases and acronyms) and sets (automatically create sets of items from a few examples). And of course, this is in addition to the already standard sections: images, groups, and directories.
2002.06.07
Observation
Edward O. Wilson's Consilience is the Baconianism of our time.
2002.06.07
For Your Consideration
Simulationist Solipsist Realism (or the Truman Show meets Tron; also see Vanilla Sky): The belief that the self can be aware of nothing but its own experiences and that nothing exists or is real but the self, while all objects, persons, ideas, and concepts are constructs of a computer simulation. [In this day in age, where philosophers muse about the possibility of reality as a computer simulation, one has to wonder if he's the hero in someone's video game...I wonder how I'm doing ;-) A man should never want to prove such as thing, lest he go mad.]
2002.06.07
Commentary
In order to treat something, like a disease for example, one must first seek to understand it. Being cynical about it won't help.
2002.06.07
Theory
Humans don't have 5 senses, they have 6; sentience is not so much a mental state as it's a sense (i.e. the sense you have that there is a self).
2002.06.05
Theory
Consciousness -- that is, the sense or feeling that we are a sentient entity -- can be broken up into discreet parts which: 1) short and long term memory, 2) rational/logical processing and intelligence, and 3) biological components such as instinct, emotions, cravings, etc. [I may be off the mark (I'm sure S. Pinker and D. Dennett have something to say on this matter), but it's something I've been considering recently. I wonder -- if someone were to upload themselves, would they cast off the biological vestiges of their personality? Would you feel like the same person? How would this affect your value system (e.g. would you become a pure logician? Would you continue to function in a 'desirable' way?) Note: do not underestimate how much of your personality is affected by your biology. Your brain is constantly being influenced by hormones, pheromones, genetic predispositions, gender, age, and so on.]
2002.06.05
Commentary
Ethnobiologists are on the right track: to understand a society we must understand what they knew about their environment and how they interpreted that knowledge. In turn, ethnobiologists need to examine how this information translated into culture, institutions, motives, metaphysical beliefs, and so on. Additionally, this approach applies to ancient cultures as it does to our own.
2002.06.03
Theory
Culture is a society's outward expression of information that has been gathered, processed, interpreted, and passed on. Put another way, culture is how societies express the accumulation of data.
2002.06.03
Theory:
Humans demand order. Where there is order, there is life; where there is disorder, there can only be death. As a result, rational agents in an ordered world gather, process, and refine information as a survival strategy. For prehistoric man, this behaviour resulted in a positive feedback loop, where the more data that was accumulated, the more control he had over his physical environment. And control of the environment, like order, allows for life. [Note: in the bible it was written that God created the world from chaos.]
2002.06.03
Observation
I've recently noticed a conceptual paradigm shift in the scientific and medical community's approach to ageing; it is coming to be regarded as a disease that can be greatly controlled and restrained -- if not defeated altogether. Traditionally, ageing has been treated as an inexorable consequence of living. Like conceptions of gravity prior to Newton, most people failed to properly grasp the phenomenon. Recent advances in the medical sciences have shown that longevity may be possible to an unprecedented degree. Moreover, extropists and those who speculate about uploads (the uploading of the human consciousness into a machine) bring an entirely new and radical dimension to the issue. The war against ageing will not be simple, though. There are many different facets to human senescence, and it will be a very lengthy and piecemeal process to weed out all contributing factors. Moreover, justifying research time and money to this field may be interpreted by the general public as a gross misappropriation of resources in consideration of issues with much higher priorities, namely global overpopulation, poverty, and ecological problems. Furthermore, the philosophical and psychological issues that extreme longevity and immortality bring to the table are as sweeping as they are profound. As Ray Kurzweil notes: "Take death for example. A great deal of our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it and often consider its intrusion a tragic event. Yet we’d find it hard to live without it. Death gives meaning to our lives. It gives importance and value to time. Time would become meaningless if there were too much of it. If death were indefinitely put off the human psyche would end up, well, like the gambler of the Twilight Zone episode." Time stops for the immortal...
2002.06.03
For Your Consideration
The Demi-God Hypothesis: The traditional definition of God comes from St. Anselm: 'that which nothing greater can be conceived.' However, I believe a new definition of God is in order -- one that accommodates the notion that God can be less than perfect -- and one that can be applied to teleological arguments. Metaphysical propositions referring to an 'intelligent designer' (as opposed to St. Anselm's definition) are not cognitively meaningless; a 'cosmological programmer' falls within the realm of scientific conceivability. The supposed death knell offered by logical positivists to all arguments that refer to God offered is thus thwarted as the universe becomes increasingly understood as a finely tuned entity. Moreover, as mathematical/Platonic realism makes a comeback (probably inspired by such things as information theory and quantum computational theory), it becomes increasingly plausible that all we observe may be contrived by a higher-order being. Now don't get me wrong -- I do not subscribe to intelligent design theories. The burden of proof still lies with them; just because something looks 'finely tuned' doesn't mean that it was consciously designed to be finely tuned. The universe appears that way because if it were any other way, we would not be here to observe it. But essentially, my argument is this: the design argument remains a valid argument so long as it attempts to prove the existence of just that: a designer.
2002.06.03
Observation
To date, human society has proven malleable enough to survive and adapt to all scientific paradigm shifts (e.g. Heliocentrism, Darwinianism, and quantum physics (although we don't really understand this yet)). It is conceivable that a future scientific paradigm shift may disrupt the social order of things irrevocably. For example, what if we discover that we are in fact living in a simulation (see Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument), or something inconceivably radical and ludicrous as far as our current sensibilities are concerned?
2002.06.02
For Your Consideration
Cartesian Pantheism: "I think, therefore I am God."
2002.06.01:
Observation/Commentary
Every ideologue aspires to achieve what that he believes is right, and by consequence, believes there are some things to be hated, feared, or fought. Where ideologues differ is in how they contend with these dichotomies.
Theory of History
Is human history just “one damned fact another another?” Is it just an unpredictable and chaotic narrative? Or, do ‘great men’ set the course of events? What would happen if we could rewind history back about 2500 years, jumble the people around, and press play again? Would history unfold radically differently or somewhat differently? Obviously, it would not replay identically, but I am quite certain that it would not be too different than what we have witnessed. Social change is most profoundly affected by our interpretation of the environment and how well we can control and draw resources and information from it. So, assuming our 'human history simulation' has the same environment and the same species (but different individuals), why should we expect things to unfold drastically differently?
What are the commonalities? We’ve observed that some things change over time without the intervention of ‘great’ individuals. For example, human society has evolved from band to tribe to chiefdom to state. (see Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel). Additionally, since the late 18th century, societies have increasingly rejected monarchist, authoritarian, and totalitarian rulerships in favour of capitalist democracies (this may be what happens when an 'enlightened,' educated and affluent society faces population pressures, or it may be due to the efficacy of the capitalist system which seems to demand a democratic politic). Liberal democracies and capitalism are the ‘accepted’ modes of political and economic conduct today (see Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History and the Last Man). The (inevitable?) totalitarian experiments of the 20th century were all failures. The Soviet Union and her allies experienced economic and social collapses, while China appears to have no choice but to reform. African nations are also experiencing the democratic urge, albeit slowly. In addition, I would argue that globalization has been a high-level tendency from the very start of human civilizations. Societies are in constant cycles of expansion and consolidation (Europe is finally on this path).
Even certain technological innovations and scientific discoveries are inevitable after certain developmental stages have been attained (e.g. the Enlightenment and Industrial Revolution). The Industrial Revolution was a product of many different innovations and inventions, independent of key historical figures. Does anyone really believe that the existence of cars, planes, computers, and electric toothbrushes are dependent on key inventors? I find it hard to believe that without Edison we wouldn't have the light bulb. And in the sciences, it was only a matter of time before such discoveries as the laws of physics, relativity, and genetics (nature abhors a vacuum). Had Darwin not posited his theory of natural selection, Alfred Russell Wallace (or someone else) would have certainly done so eventually.
I could go on and on about this, but I believe I’ve made my point. Human history is complicated and intricate. Incredible historical figures and societies do influence events. History's micro-events are truly unpredictable. Yet, at a macro level, the great forces and trends of history cannot be attributed to ‘great men’ alone. As Otto von Bismarck said, “The statesman's task is to hear God's footsteps marching through history, and to try to catch on to his coattails as He marches past."
2002.06.27
Observation/Theory
Taylorism (i.e. the 'assembly line' approach to production) was an early attempt at turning the human being into an automated machine, or in other words, a virtual robot. Workers on an assembly line have their actions constrained and scripted, and this is very 'robotic' when you think about it. In a sense, their directives during work are not unlike a set of instructions in a software program. It's no wonder that robotics are playing such a huge role in modern factories. Similarly, people who work in phone support must stick to their scripts. [Note: soldiers are also scripted, but they still retain some autonomy in that individual actions and decision making is allowed and necessary. And furthermore, it can be argued that many of our instinctual behaviours (of which we are mostly unconscious of) are scripts of a sort as well.
2002.06.27
Note: I am currently reading Ray Kurzweil's The Age of Spiritual Machines. Ya, I know: what took me so long!? This will inevitably lead to some streams on the topics of AI, the Singularity, consciousness, and the future of intelligence.
2002.06.27
Observation
History is not written by the victors, it is written by the survivors.
2002.06.25
Culture
Added my review of Spielberg's Minority Report to the Articles section.
2002.06.25
Futurology
Added a prediction to the Prescience section.
2002.06.25
Cool Scientist
David Deutsch, quantum theorist
http://www.qubit.org/people/david/David.html
2002.06.25
Cool Philosopher
Nick Bostrom, Yale University, Department of Philosophy
http://www.nickbostrom.com
2002.06.20
Metaphysics For Your Consideration
Okay, so there you are, sitting in front of the computer reading the content of this Website. Please pause for a moment to acknowledge the fact that you are alive at this point in time and observing the universe. Obviously, you are not preborn or dead, otherwise you wouldn't be observing anything. Does it surprise you that you are alive right now and not preborn/dead? Obviously not. Of course you're alive right now. This just happens to be your time. Alright then, let's put this into perspective.
The universe has been around for 15 billion years (that's 15,000,000,000 years). That's a long time. A REALLY long time. And depending on whether the universe eventually contracts or keeps on expanding, it could continue to exist for an equally long time. Let's assume that you live to be 100 years old, and the universe goes on for another 20 billion years. When all is said and done, you only got to observe 0.00003% of the universe's duration (but if the universe goes on to expand forever this figure becomes completely meaningless in its insignificance). Therefore, the fact that you are observing the universe right now at this exact point in time seems highly improbable (at least it seems that way to me). And this says nothing to the events that had to transpire for you to be alive in the first place (e.g. your parents meeting, your grandparents meeting, and so on). So yes, your existence at this point in time is so improbable, it's practically at the point of near infinite improbability. But there you are! observing the universe and reading this meandering article!
Can we take this improbability anywhere, or do we just have to accept it? It's most likely the latter, but let's work with it. Hans Moravec believes that the Many Worlds Interpretation of quantum physics may suggest that we live in an infinite universe (see his essay, "Simulation, Consciousness, Existence"). Thus, it is conceivable that each one of us experiences an infinite number of lives. When we're preborn/dead, we don't observe (when we're dead we're absolutely senseless and time cannot be perceived). Moreover, we know from experience that we have no memories of prior lives (deja vu not withstanding). Thus, you are never not observing as far as you are concerned. Or, as Moravec states, "we will always find ourselves in worlds where we exist and never in ones where we don't." (from "Simulation, Consciousness, Existence") The time gaps between lives is irrelevant as you have no sense of time elapsement. So, the moment you die, you are born again, ready to observe your new universe.
So, for all you know, you’ve already read this article an infinite number of times, and you will read it again an infinite number of times. Remind me to do a spell check…
2002.06.20
Metaphysics For Your Consideration
There are times when I think that existence isn't improbable at all. In fact, it may be quite the opposite. In an infinite cosmos, where all observations are made, existence is necessary and completely inevitable.
2002.06.20
Environmentalist Commentary
Will the 21st century be our make-or-break century? I don't see how it can't. In E. O. Wilson's essay, "The Bottleneck: The Future of Life", he states "for every person in the world to reach present U.S. levels of consumption with existing technology would require four more planet earths." I was devastated when I first read that, and my initial instinct was to concede the hopelessness of our situation; it was Thomas Malthus all over again (see his 1798 essay, "The Principles of Population"). Thankfully, however, Malthus's assertion that population numbers increase geometrically while foodstuffs grow at an arithmetic rate was incorrect (or was it?). So, is E. O. Wilson also mistaken? Well, his math is most assuredly right given current growth and consumption rates. Thus, the real issue is: can and will we resolve this real dilemma? In my never ending and futile quest to solve all the world's problems, here are some suggestions:
· the adoption of smarter eating habits in the modern world - we've got to start eating less fast-food and meat (especially beef)
· a pragmatic distribution of resources and technologies is necessary (e.g. renting, leasing, sharing, borrowing, reusing, recycling, restoring, etc.)
· smarter, leaner packaging and bundling of products
· a greater emphasis on efficient and clean energy sources that aren't resource pigs, and alternative materials to replace wood and other natural resources that are hard to replace
I'm sure there are many other tips I'm forgetting, but it's clear that modernized countries cannot go on consuming and producing at the current rate. Perhaps the lifestyle changes that I'm advocating can be summed up in the following credo: live simply. But alas, I remain somewhat pessimistic. Once businesses and people have established a viable standard of operating and living, they almost never voluntarily scale back. The changes that are required will only come about when the environment becomes visibly and obviously stressed, and consequently, when businesses and people will be compelled to change their habits by law.
2002.06.18
Observations in Cosmology
John Archibald Wheeler's mantra is "How come the quantum? How come existence?" Wheeler's recent insight into information physics and the notion that the universe can be understood as a computer (remember, he's not suggesting that the universe is a computer, he's saying it can be understood as a computer) has some serious metaphysical ramifications. By using the analogy to cellular automata, Wheeler noted that the universe and its apparent order could have emerged from chaos [I can't believe how biblical that sounds]. Wheeler believes that quantum theory is the key to understanding this issue. For more on this debate, go here.
2002.06.18
Question
Will futurology ever be able transcend its station as a philosophical endeavor and become a true scientific discipline? Meteorology is a credible (but frustrating) form of futurology, as are the futures markets. I suppose it all depends on how far into the future your prognostications run. I predict that simulations technology will have a lot to say about this over the next 25 years. [Er, did I just make a philosophical prediction, or a scientific one?]
2002.06.18
Observations in Science
Are we currently in another scientific golden age? It seems that every week there's a new study or paper that's extremely thought provoking. For example, we've recently had contributions from John Archibald Wheeler on information physics, Seth Lloyd's article in Physical Review Letters on universal computation capacity, and Stephen Wolfram's book, A New Kind of Science. Actually, cosmology in general has had a collective burst of insight recently. Other examples include advances in quantum computation, string theory (although string theorists seem a little tied up in knots these days -- but check out this quote from Edward Witten: "String theory is 21st century physics that fell accidently in the 20th century."), neurobiology, evolutionary psychology, genomics, AI, information theory, neo-Darwinism, and sociobiology (including consilience and (arguably) memetic socioanalysis). New and exciting scientific disciplines include information physics, the study of extra-solar planets, and planetary geology. Even philosophers have gotten into the act -- some cosmologists have conceded the efficacy of the anthropic principle in their methodologies. As Paul Davies stated, "We can't avoid some anthropic component in our science, which is interesting, because after three hundred years we finally realize that we do matter."
2002.06.18
Books
Here are some books that I've read recently:
- Jared Diamond's Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies
- James Gleick's Faster: The Acceleration of Just About Everything
- Richard Dawkins's Climbing Mount Improbable
- Sian Griffiths's (editor) Predictions: 30 Great Minds on the Future
2002.06.17
Changes
I made a number of grammatical corrections to this section and added some content to existing streams.
2002.06.17
Observation/Commentary/Social Theory
Both secular and non-secular conceptions of the Teilhardian Omega Point are modern manifestations of religion. As Teilhard said, "There is less difference than people think between research and adoration." Similarly, singularitarianism is a modern version of the salvation/apocalypse dilemma. It's fascinating when historical social patterns repeat themselves; it's even more fascinating when people fail to see it. Yes, we have to acknowledge that we've made some pretty spectacular scientific discoveries over the past 250 years. But I would argue that until we have the Final Theory to Everything, we don't know how far to the finish line we really are! As a result, our Singularity futurology may be as off-the-mark as the Apocalyptic futurology from hundreds of years ago. Remember: our ancestors believed they were being as rational as we believe we are now. We just happen to have more data than they did.
2002.06.17
For Your Consideration:
Is the 'fine tuning' argument absurd? Take this statement, for example: "The universe is finely tuned so that observers can discuss the fine tuning argument." Consequently, does the 'fine tuning' argument mean that the universe is determined? If so, is it an absolute determinism; in other words, if you were to hit the universal rewind button, would everything unfold exactly the way it is unfolding now? I guess my point is this: at what point do we stop saying the universe is finely tuned? At the point where an observer can exist? Why stop there? Thus, virtually everything in the universe could make the claim that the universe is finely tuned for its existence (e.g. my left shoe and this piece of spinach stuck between my front teeth).
2002.06.17
Commentary
Memetic socioanalysis is valuable insofar as it is revealing, provocative, and oftentimes profound. Only time will tell if it's a valid methodology. My main concern with memetics is the suggestion that people are docile hosts to the meme -- the insinuation that people are as unconscious about the reproductive process as the meme. The problem with this is we are conscious of our memes. As a result, we can engineer our memes much like we engineer our livestock or crops. Sure, some memes will survive this weeding process (i.e. a good 'adaptation'), but ultimately, we are in control of which ones get plucked. So, I caution memeticians: do not fixate on the meme itself, but instead, study why the meme was allowed to exist and survive in the first place. In this sense, memetic analyses change nothing.
2002.06.17
For Your Consideration:
Revolutionaries and nihilists understand how data works in society. They are both paradigm destroyers: by 'deleting' old data, they hope to make room for new versions. It's the deliberate and subjective sorting of memes and meme-sets. Similarly, radical fundamentalists try to prevent the dissemination of new contrarian ideas, while groups like the Amish and Mennonites just calmly ignore them altogether. [new memes don't like the Amish, and the Amish don't like them ;-) ]
2002.06.16
Correction
I caught a calculation error in the Fermi Paradox article (I never was good at math). The corrected sentence now reads: "This length of time represents only 0.1% of the total age of the Galaxy, which is 10,000,000,000 (ten billion) years old." My apologies for the error.
2002.06.13
New Article
The Drive to be Posthuman: An Inexorable and Necessary Human Imperative
2002.06.13
Commentary
Karl Marx should go down in history as the most dangerous and irresponsible scientist of all time. It’s one thing to posit a theory of history, or to develop a method of sociological analysis. It’s quite another to promote one’s theories -- which he claimed were scientifically irrefutable and beyond reproach -- in a recipe book that demands violent and merciless social action. Many advocates of Marx believe that the Soviet experience was a perversion of his teachings. These people need to revisit his Communist Manifesto and read it very carefully; there is very little that Lenin and Stalin did that was not prescribed in that book. The end result: a failed social experiment conducted on actual people that resulted in possibly 60 to 80 million deaths.
2002.06.12
Theory
Is it possible that we will eventually know too much about the universe and ourselves, and thus shatter the illusion that is our reality? Or similarly, what if we come predict the fate of our species? I would argue that we're indirectly trying to doing this (e.g. Fermi Paradox, Great Filter, foresight activities). Imagine a scenario where we predict the fate of the human race and discover that nothing can be done to prevent it, and that it will happen in relative short order. [Yikes.]
2002.06.12
Theory
The universe can be understood as a computer that runs algorithms allowing for physical laws (see John Archibald Wheeler and Seth Lloyd). In our universe, the physical laws are such that they allow for the presence of life. What is life? Any discreet system that exists continuously (i.e. uninterruptedly) or replicates over time. In this context, even idea propagation can be considered life-like (i.e. memetics). If this is the case, since the physical laws exist over time, and because they exhibit systemic qualities, can the laws of the universe be regarded as life forms unto themselves (e.g. the law of gravity as life form)? Does that mean the universe is a life form? [By my broad definition, I suppose it has to.]
2002.06.12
Observation
Yesterday's micros are tomorrow's singular macro.
2002.06.12
Observation & Theory
At any given developmental stage, the benefits of technology are equally proportional to their detriments. If you can create heaven, you can create hell.
2002.06.08
Theory
Are hedonistic tendencies a result of our biological heritage? Would the desire for such things as pleasure and happiness disappear with the removal of our biological components? If so, what does this say about artificial intelligence? What about uploading?
2002.06.08
Observation continues to impress me. It is truly becoming the front-end of the Web. You can actually conduct a search through Google by asking it a question (essentially, a more successful take on the Ask Jeeves concept -- and furthermore, a step in the Noosphere direction). But not only that, if the search results fail to yield a desired answer, you can have an associate of Google do the research for you (but at a price). Other cool things that Google can do include a new glossary (definitions for words, phrases and acronyms) and sets (automatically create sets of items from a few examples). And of course, this is in addition to the already standard sections: images, groups, and directories.
2002.06.07
Observation
Edward O. Wilson's Consilience is the Baconianism of our time.
2002.06.07
For Your Consideration
Simulationist Solipsist Realism (or the Truman Show meets Tron; also see Vanilla Sky): The belief that the self can be aware of nothing but its own experiences and that nothing exists or is real but the self, while all objects, persons, ideas, and concepts are constructs of a computer simulation. [In this day in age, where philosophers muse about the possibility of reality as a computer simulation, one has to wonder if he's the hero in someone's video game...I wonder how I'm doing ;-) A man should never want to prove such as thing, lest he go mad.]
2002.06.07
Commentary
In order to treat something, like a disease for example, one must first seek to understand it. Being cynical about it won't help.
2002.06.07
Theory
Humans don't have 5 senses, they have 6; sentience is not so much a mental state as it's a sense (i.e. the sense you have that there is a self).
2002.06.05
Theory
Consciousness -- that is, the sense or feeling that we are a sentient entity -- can be broken up into discreet parts which: 1) short and long term memory, 2) rational/logical processing and intelligence, and 3) biological components such as instinct, emotions, cravings, etc. [I may be off the mark (I'm sure S. Pinker and D. Dennett have something to say on this matter), but it's something I've been considering recently. I wonder -- if someone were to upload themselves, would they cast off the biological vestiges of their personality? Would you feel like the same person? How would this affect your value system (e.g. would you become a pure logician? Would you continue to function in a 'desirable' way?) Note: do not underestimate how much of your personality is affected by your biology. Your brain is constantly being influenced by hormones, pheromones, genetic predispositions, gender, age, and so on.]
2002.06.05
Commentary
Ethnobiologists are on the right track: to understand a society we must understand what they knew about their environment and how they interpreted that knowledge. In turn, ethnobiologists need to examine how this information translated into culture, institutions, motives, metaphysical beliefs, and so on. Additionally, this approach applies to ancient cultures as it does to our own.
2002.06.03
Theory
Culture is a society's outward expression of information that has been gathered, processed, interpreted, and passed on. Put another way, culture is how societies express the accumulation of data.
2002.06.03
Theory:
Humans demand order. Where there is order, there is life; where there is disorder, there can only be death. As a result, rational agents in an ordered world gather, process, and refine information as a survival strategy. For prehistoric man, this behaviour resulted in a positive feedback loop, where the more data that was accumulated, the more control he had over his physical environment. And control of the environment, like order, allows for life. [Note: in the bible it was written that God created the world from chaos.]
2002.06.03
Observation
I've recently noticed a conceptual paradigm shift in the scientific and medical community's approach to ageing; it is coming to be regarded as a disease that can be greatly controlled and restrained -- if not defeated altogether. Traditionally, ageing has been treated as an inexorable consequence of living. Like conceptions of gravity prior to Newton, most people failed to properly grasp the phenomenon. Recent advances in the medical sciences have shown that longevity may be possible to an unprecedented degree. Moreover, extropists and those who speculate about uploads (the uploading of the human consciousness into a machine) bring an entirely new and radical dimension to the issue. The war against ageing will not be simple, though. There are many different facets to human senescence, and it will be a very lengthy and piecemeal process to weed out all contributing factors. Moreover, justifying research time and money to this field may be interpreted by the general public as a gross misappropriation of resources in consideration of issues with much higher priorities, namely global overpopulation, poverty, and ecological problems. Furthermore, the philosophical and psychological issues that extreme longevity and immortality bring to the table are as sweeping as they are profound. As Ray Kurzweil notes: "Take death for example. A great deal of our effort goes into avoiding it. We make extraordinary efforts to delay it and often consider its intrusion a tragic event. Yet we’d find it hard to live without it. Death gives meaning to our lives. It gives importance and value to time. Time would become meaningless if there were too much of it. If death were indefinitely put off the human psyche would end up, well, like the gambler of the Twilight Zone episode." Time stops for the immortal...
2002.06.03
For Your Consideration
The Demi-God Hypothesis: The traditional definition of God comes from St. Anselm: 'that which nothing greater can be conceived.' However, I believe a new definition of God is in order -- one that accommodates the notion that God can be less than perfect -- and one that can be applied to teleological arguments. Metaphysical propositions referring to an 'intelligent designer' (as opposed to St. Anselm's definition) are not cognitively meaningless; a 'cosmological programmer' falls within the realm of scientific conceivability. The supposed death knell offered by logical positivists to all arguments that refer to God offered is thus thwarted as the universe becomes increasingly understood as a finely tuned entity. Moreover, as mathematical/Platonic realism makes a comeback (probably inspired by such things as information theory and quantum computational theory), it becomes increasingly plausible that all we observe may be contrived by a higher-order being. Now don't get me wrong -- I do not subscribe to intelligent design theories. The burden of proof still lies with them; just because something looks 'finely tuned' doesn't mean that it was consciously designed to be finely tuned. The universe appears that way because if it were any other way, we would not be here to observe it. But essentially, my argument is this: the design argument remains a valid argument so long as it attempts to prove the existence of just that: a designer.
2002.06.03
Observation
To date, human society has proven malleable enough to survive and adapt to all scientific paradigm shifts (e.g. Heliocentrism, Darwinianism, and quantum physics (although we don't really understand this yet)). It is conceivable that a future scientific paradigm shift may disrupt the social order of things irrevocably. For example, what if we discover that we are in fact living in a simulation (see Nick Bostrom's Simulation Argument), or something inconceivably radical and ludicrous as far as our current sensibilities are concerned?
2002.06.02
For Your Consideration
Cartesian Pantheism: "I think, therefore I am God."
2002.06.01:
Observation/Commentary
Every ideologue aspires to achieve what that he believes is right, and by consequence, believes there are some things to be hated, feared, or fought. Where ideologues differ is in how they contend with these dichotomies.
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