From the course: Learning Excel: Data Analysis

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Solution: Perform a Bayesian analysis

Solution: Perform a Bayesian analysis - Microsoft Excel Tutorial

From the course: Learning Excel: Data Analysis

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Solution: Perform a Bayesian analysis

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(upbeat music) - [Instructor] In the previous movie I described a problem where you will determine the probability an item is genuine when it's reported genuine and an item is counterfeit when reported counterfeit by museum appraisers and curators based on the base rate of genuine items comprising 70% of the collection and an appraiser accuracy rate of 90%. So let's go ahead and fill in the worksheet and perform our calculations. I'll click on cell B six. The probability an item is genuine is given in B three. So in B six I'll type equal and B three. That means that the probability it is counterfeit or fake, not real is one minus 70%. So in B seven I'll type equal one minus and our base rates in B three. So enter 70 and 30 is a hundred, which is correct. Now we need to determine the probability the appraisers are correct or incorrect. So in B nine I'll type equal the probability they're correct is their accuracy. So that's in B four. And as with the probability of an item being…

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