Gro Intelligence

Yesterday, the USDA announced the discontinuation of their NASS County Estimates for Crops, effective immediately. Losing this valuable source of data will impact business operations, decision making, database construction, and yield forecasting. Luckily, despite the USDA’s discontinuation, Gro will continue to provide proprietary, daily-updating, county-level yield forecast models for corn, wheat, and soybeans. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eVkDMzRh

US acres planted to cotton are set to increase by double digits from last season, according to Gro's US Planting Intentions Model. The video below shows how drought conditions in Texas have improved ahead of the planting season for the 2024 US cotton crop, which begins in April. Learn more with Gro's Insight here: https://bit.ly/49iGjej #cotw

Agricultural land, along with the businesses that depend on it, is facing unprecedented risk due to extreme weather as a result of climate change and increasing demand on critical natural resources. Gro's ensemble of climate models provides insight into the potential future impact of various climate change scenarios on the food supply chain, agricultural and hard assets, pricing and trade, and more. The foundation of our ensemble is curated from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6), the core suite of climate change simulations underpinning the latest IPCC report "AR6".   To find out more about how our climate ensemble can help you, click here: https://bit.ly/3T5gKYi

ICYMI, Gro published: Discover Gro’s 2024 Watchlist: 3 Forces Shaping Global Climate Risk in the Year Ahead: https://bit.ly/3UOSURY Palm Oil Production Set to Rise as Crop Dodges the Impact of El Niño: https://bit.ly/42FwMLO How Did We Do? Gro's Climate Risk Forecasts for 2023 Reviewed: https://bit.ly/494APDU US Cotton Acreage Will Jump in 2024, Gro Predicts: https://bit.ly/49iGjej Discover the Gro Intelligence Commodities Tracker: https://bit.ly/49iGmqv Want to receive Gro's updates and insights directly in your inbox? Subscribe here: https://bit.ly/407NX7C

🌍 2023 was the hottest year in history — a year marked by a record number of billion-dollar-plus climate-related disasters, including wildfires that devastated communities on Maui, and forest fires across Canada that sent smoke billowing over much of North America. Looking ahead into 2024, Gro expects global average temperatures will continue to rise, potentially triggering further growth in extreme weather events. Discover Gro’s 2024 Watchlist and learn more about the 3 Forces Shaping Global Climate Risk in the Year Ahead, here: https://bit.ly/3UOSURY

In the top palm oil producing countries of Indonesia and Malaysia, the chance that above average rainfall will continue in the coming months is greater than 50% in most areas (colored blue), and above 75% in some locations (dark blue), likely helped by La Niña's possible arrival by August, according to Gro's Climate Indicator Forecast. The abundant precipitation could give a potential boost to palm oil production, although there is a high degree of uncertainty in forecasts made months in advance. Read more here: https://bit.ly/42FwMLO Want to receive more of our weekly insights in your inbox? Click here: https://bit.ly/407NX7C #chartoftheweek

The South American crop growing season is currently underway! Gro Intelligence data and applications like the Climate Risk Navigator provide insights into critical factors affecting the growing season including temperature, rainfall, and soil conditions for key crops in the region. In our latest report, learn what variables will be important to monitor this season that determine health conditions for Soybean and Corn production. Here’s an example from our Climate Risk Navigator, highlighting the Gro Drought Index for Brazil weighted by corn growing regions. To get more insights from our seasonal guide, click here: https://bit.ly/42CVexq

🌎 At the beginning of 2023, Gro assembled a list of predictions for three major forces shaping global climate risk for the year. 🌍   Today, Gro is looking back at those forecasts to see what we got right and what surprised us during a year marked by extreme weather and a record number of $1 billion-plus climate-driven disasters.    See how Gro’s predictions for climate risk in 2023 panned out: https://bit.ly/494APDU And watch for our Climate Lookahead for 2024, publishing next week.

Amid the third consecutive year of drought in North Africa, the Gro Drought Index is currently flagging “extreme drought” (indicated by the red coloring in the map above) and “exceptional drought” (the index’s highest reading, indicated by the brown coloring) in wheat-growing regions (denoted by the circles) across Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria. Given these conditions, the countries will likely have to increase their wheat imports for the 2024/25 season. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/eBgfTFS4

India last week trimmed its fertilizer subsidies budget by 13% for the upcoming fiscal year, starting April 1 — likely extending the challenging environment for the country's DAP importers. Strong domestic demand for DAP has outpaced production and imports since the 2022/23 season, resulting in a steady drawdown of inventories (see chart). Replenishing supplies will be difficult without China, India's leading offshore supplier, after the country tightened export restrictions late last year. India is a major consumer of DAP. Demand during the 2021/22 season reached 9.27 million metric tonnes, according to the latest public report available from The Fertiliser Association of India. Indian importers have combatted higher prices since China withdrew from the export market, posing additional headwinds to new cargo procurement since fourth quarter 2023. India's urea supplies, though, are experiencing a cycle of replenishment following two consecutive years of significant drawdown and little rebuild.