Finanosaurs 1 Nation States 0 ~Global Guerrillas

widespread collapse in legitimacy
I mentioned at the time I wrote this brief, that viral violence targeting the barons of global finance was likely incoming (but that it wasn't here yet). Here's a small addition to that trend line (that builds on the thousands of death threats that have been received). In the UK, vandals hit the home of the former CEO of the Royal Bank of Scotland, 'Sir' Fred Goodwin (he and his family have already fled the country). Windows on the ground floor of the home and his Mercedes S600 were smashed. E-mails from a group claiming the attacks said,

We are angry that rich people, like him, are paying themselves a huge amount of money, and living in luxury, while ordinary people are made unemployed, destitute and homeless. This is a crime. Bank bosses should be jailed. This is just the beginning.
The Real Systemic Risk

This leads me to a broader topic. The real systemic risk we face isn't from a financial seizure. That risk is mild in comparison to the risk of a widespread collapse in legitimacy. Due to excesses (too many to name), legitimacy is rapidly draining from the global financial system and the networked groups that give it their primary loyalty (like Fred above). In recognition of this, nation-states should hold this system at arms length to limit damage to their own legitimacy. Given the constraints on resources faced by nation-states, a plan that would bulk up legitimacy would focus on reorganizing financial institutions (not bailing them out) and repairing the balance sheets of individual citizens (the only group in the chart to the left that is still loyal to nation-states). That isn't happening and the damage incurred from this mistake will be significant.

NOTE: The other thing that the inset chart tells us is that this crisis is due to debt, overreach, and insolvency. Until the US collectively writes/pays off $20 trillion plus in excess debt, not much will change. Transferring debt from financial firms to the government (as in the Paulson/Geithner plan), only accelerates the decline of nation-states relative to an already dominant global financial/economic system.

No the real problem is the US has been liquidating its human capital reserves.

Basically it threw the boomer generation away for some short-term gains in the financial centers and then tried to make up for it by importing people from other countries. Apparently the folks in power can ignore the fact that this was "treason" since no one apparently cares about such romantic notions anymore, and we can even ignore that it was "genocide" under the definition given by Lemkin, because that concept somehow doesn't seem to protect the Posterity of the Founders of the US.

No, the "real" issue is that the economic base has been wiped out and there is no fixing it because no one in power can even conceive, let alone admit the problem was incompetent human husbandry.

http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/2009/03/journal-more-on-banksters.html

IMF: legacy institution?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

The G-20 said smaller economies should have more say in how the IMF is run and accelerated the next review of how power is allocated by two years to 2011. The next heads of the IMF and World Bank will also be appointed through “open, merit-based selection processes” instead of being split between a European and American, the group said.

Asian Monetary Fund?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=asia

“If China fully agrees with the idea, we can say it’s none of the U.S.’s business even if it opposes it,” he said. “We could virtually make it a fund by expanding the current Chiang Mai Initiative.”

Chiang Mai Intiative(CMI) morphing into Asian Monetary Fund?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiang_Mai_Initiative

In February 2009, ASEAN+3 agreed to make the fund worth $120 billion, up from the original level of $80 billion proposed in 2008. Final agreement was expected to come in May 2009, and 80% of the fund is expected to come from China, Japan, and South Korea.

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Seems to be a break between the insolvent in Europe/USA and the surplus countries in E and SE Asia. The IMF is looking after Hungary, Iceland, Pakistan, etc. , and needs to 'borrow' an additional 500B. Meanwhile, quietly, the Chiang Mai Initiative has morphed into the Asian Monetary Fund but they don't want to call it that as it's not convenient at this time.

ASEAN+3... looks like China with its huge reserves is solidifying its hold as the regional hegemon while the West in dazed and confused. If the CMI aids weaklings Indonesia and the Philippines outside of IMF purview then the transition is nearly complete, an Asian currency block could be arranged in a short time if it's not already done.

Invoicing for oil, bulk shipping, even RMB denominated bonds ... would by-pass the European and American money changers. And in the context of what has happened over the past few years, invoicing for oil in Euros, RMBs, YEN, -- in contravention of IMF rules.... then the IMF looks rather feeble going forward as there well be no need for unbacked SDRs

Note that the threat of 'blacklisting' tax havens such as Swiss/Luxembourg has omitted mention of Dubai, HK, Singapore...

China holding a strong hand, could get more interesting when the 'value' or 'absolute confidence' of US Treasuries ... takes a hit.