Just think, hardcore gamers, what were you doing a year ago today? Standing in line? Listening to some kid in line talk about how he'd retire off his eBay profits? This weekend marks the birthday of the PlayStation 3. Compared to a year ago, the backlash against the PS3's price tag is a little less acidic than last November, although the MSRP is still too rich for most peoples' blood. Factor in yesterday's weak showing on the latest NPD stats that seems, based on Sony's press releases, mostly stimulated by the late October price drops and you've got a pretty stagnant state of affairs for the PS3. SCEA is telling us to wait for November sales, since the 40GB model dropped on the 2nd. For its sake, I hope the spokespeople are right.

Really, though, that's not the purpose of this week's installment. Rather than have a bitchfest about what Sony is stumbling over now, or putting spin on a not-so-great situation, let's take a look at what we can hope for next year. And in my case, eat some cake that, weirdly, Sony sent over. I think that this reflection has been, in part, due to the e-mail I answered two weeks ago regarding the system in 2008. I wanted to keep it brief for the sake of making an already-long column a little shorter. So, let's look at some pretty undeniable facts this time.

Rumble is Every-Gen!

We know that controllers with rumble are coming to the US soon. Jonti's insightful Kanpai! about the DualShock 3's Japanese release is a great read, if you haven't checked it out yet. We've heard the spin, from "rumble is last-gen" to "I don't even like to turn it on, anyway." The fact is, most of us are used to it, thanks to the DualShock, which had the feature built in. Everyone thinks I'm nuts, but I'm ordering one from my trusty import shop in LA. I expect modest sales of DualShock 3 that will correlate with the hardcore demographic, but I expect it to become part of a new bundle in late Spring or early summer to support "the two 4s."

Now available in Japan and (if you're lucky) at an import shop near you.

Grand Theft Auto IV isn't a timed Sony exclusive anymore. Now that it's coming same-day for both 360 and PS3, Sony is going to need an incentive. Rumble is available on the 360 already, so that only serves to put the PS3 on equal footing. I think that ultimately the 360 version is going to be the top seller here, unless someone's keeping mum about exclusive downloadable content to match the 360 game. As I've said until my face is blue, it's really going to come down to MGS4 for the midpoint of the year, then God of War III and a Resistance sequel for this time next year. When it comes to exclusives, the playing field is much different than in the PS2/Xbox era. Microsoft has usurped Sony's techniques masterfully, and it will be up to Phil Harrison and SCE's worldwide studios to create compelling first-party games.

If Sony plays its cards right, a 40GB bundle with rumble for $349.99 will look more appetizing in late May/early June in time for MGS4 (and LittleBigPlanet, a game that I expect good word of mouth on) and would do a better job carrying them. Then again, my inner cynic thinks that it could be a moot point. No matter how you cut it, $200 is the mass-market price for a gaming console, whether Microsoft or Sony like it or not, and part of the Wii's success has been due to not only its price tag, but the fact that it's a great console for non-HD households, which are the majority of American households at least through this holiday season.