Cornyn's 'dream' of a governing agenda depends on slim GOP majority

Sen. John Cornyn's low-profile re-election bid against Democratic challenger David Alameel stands in marked contrast to his profile in Washington, where he could become the second most powerful lawmaker in a new Republican Senate majority.

Although he's been careful not to declare victory, Cornyn already has laid out his “Republican blueprint for governing” should the GOP, as many polls suggest, recapture the Senate leadership.

Alameel, a wealthy dentist and relative newcomer to politics, has put about $10 million into his own campaign to unseat Cornyn. That's not far from the more than $15 million Cornyn has raised. But Alameel has managed to raise only about $40,000 from outside contributors, raising doubts about the viability of his long-shot campaign.

The rivals debated Friday night at Mountain View College in Dallas. It will initially be televised late Saturday night in Texas on Univision, overdubbed in Spanish. To underscore the low-profile nature of the contest, the debate won't be available in English until Wednesday, via cable on C-SPAN.

Cornyn, tall with a commanding silver-haired presence, knows his top agenda item sounds mundane: “We need to pass a budget,” he said in an interview this week.

But that, many Congress watchers say, could be a prescription for fireworks — if not two years of political gridlock.

Barring a historic surprise on Nov. 4, the 62-year-old Texas Republican stalwart will be the majority whip responsible for corralling votes and enforcing party discipline in a deeply fractured Congress.

There also is the question of whether the Republicans' Tea Party wing - represented by the junior senator from Texas, Ted Cruz — will follow the lead of Cornyn and Sen. Mitch McConnell, who is favored to win a tough re-election fight in Kentucky and become the next Senate majority leader.

With Republicans in control of both the House and Senate, analysts say Cornyn and McConnell also will face pressure to deliver results on tax reform, a priority for many House Republicans - and some Democrats as well.

Tax reform also is on the menu for Cornyn. But facing the likelihood of deepening polarization in Congress, he is tamping down expectations.

“I don't think Republicans can overreach,” he said. “I don't think we can insist that it's 'our way or the highway,' because we don't have the votes on a purely partisan basis to get things done.”

But Cornyn said he also sees a potential silver lining. Much like President Bill Clinton and a Republican Congress in the 1990s, President Obama can be expected to strive for a positive legacy when he leaves office in two years.

The list of potential compromises could greatly affect Texas: Approval of the Keystone XL oil pipeline, boosting exports of oil and liquefied natural gas, trade promotion authority, perhaps even tweaking parts of Obama's health care law.

Cornyn also has hopes for limited immigration reforms in 2015 focused on beefing up border security and expanding guest worker visas to “provide the legal work force needed by our growing economy.”

But some outside analysts remain skeptical, given the raging debate over immigration within the GOP. “One tribe is for it, the other is against it,” said American University political scientist James Thurber.

To some analysts, the big story of the next Congress will not be the standoff between Democrats and Republicans, but the uneasy partnership of mainstream Republican leaders and their party's increasingly conservative base in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election.

“It's going to be a fascinating time, particularly for John Cornyn,” said Sean Theriault, a University of Texas political scientist who has written extensively about polarization. “Cornyn is as much an institutionalist as there is in the Senate, and if he maintains his position as majority whip, the No. 1 potential thorn in his side is going to be his same-state colleague.”

kevin.diaz@chron.com

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