Redrawing State Lines For Fairness And Greater Political Harmony

Some of these are possible and good ideas to implement. Some are pipe dreams and can be viewed as alternative history outcomes.

If all of these proposals were adopted, the U.S. would still have 50 states (no need to change the flag) and would have no self-governing territories that lack political representation in the federal government.

Four new states would be formed from U.S. territory outside any U.S. State. American Samoa would leave the U.S. to join the adjacent independent state of Samoa. California would be divided into two states. Ten existing states would be merged into five states. There would be six one way territory transfers from one state to another, and one territory trade between two states.

Form Four New States From Federal Territory

Each of the proposed states has already handles all of its subnational governmental affairs on its own which is the point of being a state or not. The primary change in each case would be representation in the federal government.

* Admit the District of Columbia as a state (population 0.69 million).

* Admit Puerto Rico as a state (population 3.34 million)

* Admit the U.S. Virgin Islands as a state (population 0.11 million).

* Admit Guam (population 0.17 million) and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (population 0.05 million) (which are adjacent to each other) as a single new U.S. state  with two county level governments. 

One U.S. Territory Joins Another Country

Encourage American Samoa (population 0.05 million) to merge with the independent state of Samoa (population 0.20 million) and leave the United States. There is no good reason for the two to be politically divided and for them to be ruled without representation from Washington D.C.

Divide California Into Two U.S. States

California is large in population and area to the point of being unmanageable, in addition to being grossly underrepresented in the U.S. Senate. Divide California into a northern state of Golden (18.15 million people, 51 counties) and a Southern state of California (21.37 million, 7 counties) as shown below. The Los Angeles CMSA is kept in tact.

Merge Five Pairs Of Adjacent U.S. States

Each of the proposed state mergers below merge geographically adjacent states with very compatible populations, identities, economies, politics, and needs. The first four leave states with modest populations even merged. Texas and Oklahoma merged would still have a smaller population and more homogeneity than California.

* Merge Montana and Wyoming (1.65 million people)

* Merge North Dakota and South Dakota (1.65 million people)

* Merge Nebraska and Kansas (4.85 million people)

* Merge Kentucky and West Virginia (population 6.26 million).

* Merge Oklahoma and Texas (32.96 million people)

Six Territory Transfers Between U.S. States And One Territory Trade Between U.S. States

The proposals below wouldn't change the balance of power in the federal government much, but would put more people in states better aligned with their political leanings.

Two Transfers Of Territory To Idaho (From Washington and Oregon)

Map from here.

A Transfer of Territory From Nevada To Utah

The seven counties in Northeast Nevada (population 0.12 million) would be transferred to Utah, giving Utah a new population of about 3.32 million), six are connected via I-80 to Utah, the seventh borders Utah. The ten remaining counties of Nevada would have a population of 2.59 million.

It would also be workable to break Nevada into two states, with or without this territory transfer to Utah. One state, call it Vegas, would have Nye, Clark and Lincoln counties (population 2.00 million). One state, Nevada, would have Washoe, Storey, Carson City, Lyon, Douglas, Mineral and Esmeralda counties (population 0.59 million) either without the counties transferred to Utah in the proposal above, or with them (population 0.71 million) with would end the need to involve Utah in the matter.

A Transfer Of Territory From Michigan To Wisconsin

Transfer Upper Peninsula (population 0.31 million) of Michigan (population 9.99 million including the UP) to Wisconsin (population 5.82 million).

Thus, the post-transfer population of Michigan would be 9.68 million and the post-transfer population of Wisconsin would be 6.13 million.

A Transfer Of Territory From Florida To Alabama

Transfer the twelve county part of the Panhandle of Florida which is to the south of Alabama (i.e. Escambia, Santa Rose, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, Gulf, Liberty and Franklin counties) with population 1.04 million, from Florida (population 18.80 million) to Alabama (population 4.90). 

Thus, the post-transfer population of Alabama would be 5.94 million and the post-transfer population of Florida would be 17.76 million.

A Transfer Of Territory To Ohio

Transfer Western Pennsylvania to Ohio.

Fun fact: Westsylvania was proposed as the 14th state during the American Revolutionary War. It would have been located primarily in what is now West Virginia, southwestern Pennsylvania, and small parts of Kentucky, Maryland, and Virginia.

A Territory Trade Between Illinois and Indiana

Transfer Southern Illinois to Indiana and far Northwest Indiana (e.g. Gary, Indiana) to Illinois.

2016 County Level Presidential Election Results

Winning in 2020

What do Democrats need to do to win in the 2020 election and beyond?

Policy

* Show off the virtues of the Democratic agenda in state houses we control, rather than insisting on trying to show that Democrats can get something done primarily in Congress, where only legislation acceptable to Donald Trump and hard line Republicans in the Senate can pass. 

* Demonstrate at the state level that Democrats can take meaningful steps to reduce teen pregnancy, enact sensible gun control legislation, broaden access to higher education, legalize marijuana, reduce unnecessary and costly excessive incarceration, fund relatively inexpensive government bureaucracies and court systems at levels necessary to meet the needs of growing businesses, roll back unnecessary occupational licensing regulation, use all available means to make health care more accessible, etc.

* In Congress, one potentially fruitful way to cross the aisle may be to try to distinguish Mormon Republicans, whose bases in states like Utah and Idaho were skeptical of Trump in the first place, to break with other Republicans on select issues targeting Trump's corruption and immorality. The Democrat's hand will be strongest on budget and appropriations issues and those issues can be leveraged for gains on other fronts. Sentencing reform and marijuana legalization may be exceptions where good legislation can be passed as Republicans have eventually come around to Democratic positions on these issues.

* In particular, hammer the administration on unpopular decisions like weak approaches towards Saudi Arabia, Russia and North Korea, inhumane treatment of immigrants, especially children and Dreamers, tax cuts restricted to big corporations and the rich that have produced large, peacetime deficits, corruption, environmental regulations such as endangered species protections and clean water, poor disaster responses, and support for white supremacists and neo-Nazis. Democrats have nothing to gain from cooperating to achieve half-measures with Trump.

* Keep fighting back and building outrage over Trump's conduct as President. This is what drove record turnout for the midterms. The 2020 election can have record turnout too, particularly given record turnout from Millennials for their age group. 

Election Law Reform

* Push election administration innovations that increased voter turnout like election day voter registration and all mail-in ballots and an end of signature matching for mail-in ballots in states that Democrats control legislatively, and in states that Democrats do not control, by initiative where possible.

* Push legislation and ballot initiatives to mandate that only candidates with majorities can win seats, requiring runoffs or rank choice voting in cases where the plurality candidate receives less than 50% of the vote, so that third-party candidates don't act as spoilers.

State By State Efforts

* Flip states that Trump won narrowly in 2016. Many states were very narrow wins for Trump in 2016: Wisconsin (0.7%), Pennsylvania (0.7%), and Michigan (0.3%) stand out, but Arizona (3.5%), North Carolina (3.6%) and Florida (1.2%) are also states that were reasonably close in 2016 and can be flipped in 2020. These are states that a Democrat in 2020 running against a campaign by Trump who has shown his true colors ought to be able to win.

* Defend states that Clinton won narrowly in 2016. Maine (which went for Clinton by 3.0 percentage points, but gave Trump one electoral vote in the 2nd Congressional District by 10 percentage points, which flipped to a Democrat in the House in 2018), New Hampshire (0.3%), Minnesota (1.5%) and Nevada (2.4%) were narrow wins for Clinton in 2016 and can't be taken for granted. Clinton won Colorado with a 4.9% margin in 2016 and the trend line in Colorado in the midterms was even more strongly towards the Democratic party, so Colorado may need less attention in 2020.

* Iowa (9.4%) and Ohio (8.1%) which voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 are also winnable with the right candidate, even though they weren't close in 2016. A Midwestern nominee might be attractive.

* Democrats need a candidate who is strong in these swing states, not in states that are strongly GOP leaning, or in safe blue states.

* Work on long run party building in Arizona, following in the footsteps of similar successful efforts in Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. Arizona has supported moderate Northeastern style Republicans in the past. As the GOP has moved to the right, there is room for big tent Democrats to win Arizonans over. Even if Democrats don't win the Presidential election in 2020 in Arizona, this is one of the few states that has a potential to shift its long run partisan leanings in the long run, joining its neighbors California, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado in the mountain states. Democrats aren't up against deep seated cultural commitments in Arizona in the way that they are in the South and many rural states or states with large Mormon populations.

* In Florida, devote lots of resources early to registering to vote the 1.4 million people with felony records who were newly enfranchised by the passage of issue 4, and Hurricane Maria migrants from Puerto Rico; improve election administration in large counties where Democrats control county government; and pursue litigation now to outlaw and prevent dirty trick voter suppression tactics utilized in the midterm election cycle.

* Develop a stronger economic issues agenda to address the concerns of voters in the Rust Belt (e.g. Northern Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and Southern Michigan).

* Provide solid Democratic party candidates to take on Cory Gardner in Colorado and Susan Collins in Maine.

Michigan To Have a Do Over Primary

The Democratic National Committee and Michigan Democratic Party have agreed to allow Michigan to hold a "contest" that will allow it to have delegates seated at the Democratic National Convention in Denver this August. It will be run by the party without government assistance, like a caucus, but will be structured like a primary election. The exact details of the agreement remain hazy.

This is a boost to Hillary Clinton, who won the beauty contest primary held in January, in which no candidates campaigned, and Clinton was the only major candidate on the ballot, which the DNC told the Michigan Democratic Party it would not honor because it was scheduled at a date earlier than allowed by Democratic National Committee rules. But, Obama will receive the benefit of having other candidates out of the race at this point and of the momentum his campaign has accumulated since January.

This leaves the disqualification of Florida's delegation, because its primary was held too soon, as the main unresolved procedural question going into the convention, something that also hurts Clinton who finished in first place there as well.