Monday, 31 October 2022

Old Stone Wall

Hay's dad is rebuilding a stone wall (not dry stone) that was in danger of collapse from bowing out. He's partially taken it down.


You may remember that when I did my dry stone walling course, it is traditional to put something into the wall from the time it was created; in the case of a dry stone wall it's usually a coin bearing the year of construction.

Hay's dad found some ironmongery artefacts from when it was built, which must have been well over a hundred years ago and by one of his ancestors.


A pair of scissors, a hefty nail of some description and a cupboard handle, all rusted to buggery.

I suggested that he avails himself of a cigar tube and leave a message in it, sealing it with wax, and bury it within the rebuilt section for someone to find in the future. Perhaps just a 2022 coin with the head of King Charles III might be another thing he could bury into it.

Of course, being a wall made with mortar, it's not a real stone wall.....


Sunday, 30 October 2022

Security

In response to allegations that Truss' pone was hacked, a government spokesperson said there are "robust systems" in place to protect against cyber threats, including regular security briefings for ministers and advice on how they can protect their personal data.


That doesn't chime with Suella Braverman receiving lessons from MI5 on what information she can and cannot share - she already had such lessons regularly when a minister under both Johnson and Truss, according to the No.10 sources.

It's all getting murkier and murkier.


Saturday, 29 October 2022

Sourdough

I've spent the last few days trying to resurrect my sourdough starter which has been languishing, forgotten, at the back of the fridge for nigh on a year. I haven't been making any sourdough bread for a long, long time, buying it instead from Aldi, which is easy, but it's also now expensive and isn't real sourdough anyway - no supermarket-bought sourdough is.


By rights my starter should be dead as a Dodo but, miraculously, I managed to bring it back to life. It's now all frothy and veritably jumping with yeast cultures. Baked several loaves with it and the taste is heavenly - the sourness really comes through. 

I originally made the culture some 8 years ago (I think), but added some (allegedly) 100 year old culture from Cumbria that I bought on e-Bay, so it's a melange, but old.


Friday, 28 October 2022

Unblocked Blockage

We hit a blockage with the new garage and workshop - the roof tiles were unavailable, despite having been promised by the supplier. That, naturally, brought things to a temporary halt while matching tiles were sought. 


You might think tiles are easy to find, but tiles from different quarries may not be a match. Our supplier was eventually able to find a new source, but the tiles were more expensive. However, given we already had an order in, the original price was honoured.

With not being able to find tiles, it was pointless putting the roofing membrane on, as exposure to weather would degrade it, so no progress was possible until a new source of tiles could be found.


I still find it incredible that Spanish slates are cheaper than Welsh slates, especially as the Spanish slates are subject to Brexit friction.


Thursday, 27 October 2022

The Gamers' Dilemma

Thinking of Sunak's appointment of Braverman - one whom many consider a security risk - as the Home Sec.; it could be a supreme strategic move worthy of Machiavelli.


Sunak needed Braverman's support (and that of the ERG) to access the keys to No,10. The demand from the far right in return for her support was a senior position in his administration. Without it, he was lost.

His thoughts could well have been that, given her predilection for shooting herself in the foot, whether it be by doing something stupid, or promising the undeliverable (immigration has broken the back of many Home Secretaries), it won't be long before she's in trouble once more and, it's better to get that over as quickly as possible, certainly within the first year of his administration.

Braverman is adept at providing the dog-whistles necessary to get the racists foaming at the mouth, while knowing full well that she won't be able to deliver unless some thought goes into the process and legal means of access to the UK are opened nearer the cause of the problems. This, however, is not something she's prepared to countenance and which is causing the problem in the first place. Her gamble is that she can keep the dog-whistles going long enough to reach the next GE, blaming all and sundry for her failure. It will bite her in the bum, if security concerns don't get her first.

I am reasonably convinced, especially with the threat of an inquiry into her actions in regards of security breaches, Sunak could justifiably say he held his side of the bargain and any demise in her position was entirely self inflicted, leaving him with well over a year to proceed along whatever path he chooses before a General Election.

A risky strategy, agreed, as the far right could still cause trouble from the backbenches, but one worth taking and the only one available to him. The Tory Party is, after all, no longer a single, broad church, but a vipers' nest of vociferously competing factions, which it has been since the Brexit referendum and  will be its downfall.

The hidden danger, however, is that the drain of support to the Brexit Party and Reform UK would likely result, if the Tories don't lose as many seats as anticipated, of them being forced into a Coalition of the Unholy after the next GE to prevent a Labour government.

As for Sunak's first PMQs, he lied twice; once about Labour's immigration policy, by saying Labour wanted uncontrolled immigration, and again about Starmer supporting Just Stop Oil protesters, when Starmer in on record as not supporting their actions. The former lie is rather hypocritical when Tory policies have directly led to 38,000 immigrants crossing the Channel this year alone (a record), with only 4% of the backlog processed. 


Wednesday, 26 October 2022

A Wonky Cabinet

One can only assume that Sunak, by appointing the scheming and incompetent Braverman as Home Sec. and the useless Raab as Justice Sec., must be working on the principle of  keeping one's friends close, but one's enemies closer. Rees-Smug is back in his box, but it leaves him more time to meddle from the backbenches and devote his time to the ERG, which will be the bane of Sunak's premiership. 


There again, if he's trying to heal splits between the numerous factions, then his appointments are no surprise; however, surely competence is a key issue on the last jog to the next GE? Herein lies Sunak's problem - competent government vs healing rifts - and the two aren't compatible with the pool of talent being so shallow since The Purge. He's going to need a firm hand.

Given the propensity for the Tories to rip themselves apart, the hope must be of fewer Tory MPs losing their seats, but I can't see that happening unless a magical rabbit it pulled from the metaphorical hat. The Party is irredeemably and terminally split and the Cabinet is an exercise in damage limitation.

Will he choose to live in a pokey No.10, or just use it as an office? I can just imagine going back to his palatial mansion and saying to his wife and kids; "I'm sorry love, but we've got to go and live in a teeny flat at No.10 ." Can't see that going down well.


Tuesday, 25 October 2022

New PM

Well, we have our 5th PM in 6 years and I'm starting to wonder when we''ll all have to start learning Italian.


It was certainly an amusing weekend seeing Tory PMs coming out publicly in favour of the returned Greased Piglet, only to have to eat their words within 24 hours and switch allegiances when they saw the direction in which the wind was blowing and he was humiliated.

I feel like starting a petition to have Rees-Smugg upgraded from steam to electric.

 This isn't going to play well for the Tories at the next General Election as there are many who see Sunak as a backstabber,, while conveniently forgetting that Johnson himself was a backstabber to May, and the racists will drain away to the Reform UK Party. Then there are the millions of newly self-employed that Sunak left on the shelf with Furlough.

It was, however, a sensible decision to try and bring some stability to the economy.


Monday, 24 October 2022

All Hallows Eve

 We're fast coming to that time of year when millions of people will be buying food, only to carve it into a face and then chuck it in the bin. I speak, of course, of the humble pumpkin. It seems, especially when some can't afford to feed their families, to be a terrible waste of food.


We always buy a load of cheap pumpkins on the day after Halloween, when the price drops dramatically, and use them for delicious soups. They last a couple of months, at least.


Sunday, 23 October 2022

Who Needs Customers?

Went to my local bank yesterday to draw out a couple of grand, which is well beyond my daily debit card limit, only to discover it's closed on Saturdays.


Why close on the only day most people can get to a bank? It's almost as if they don't want custom.

 

Saturday, 22 October 2022

Welfare State

Some, in fact many (and all neoliberals), talk of scaling back the Welfare State, but not many realise the its importance, or indeed its history and necessity.


The Arch-capitalist, Otto von Bismarck, created the forerunner of the modern Welfare State in the 1880s, providing Health Insurance in 1883, Accident Insurance in 1884 and Old Age Pensions in 1889. National Unemployment Insurance was introduced later in 1927. The measures that Bismarck introduced were a bulwark against Socialism, which was threatening the newly created, unified Germany. He recognised that workers would be attracted to Socialism if these benefits were not provided and revolution was possible.

In a way, the Welfare State is a consequence of capitalism and is necessitated by corporations not paying a living wage, while they themselves take advantage of tax laws to put their profits beyond the reach of the tax system. While 27% of the income of the poorest 20%  goes on indirect taxes (VAT, tariffs, etc - which no-one can avoid), only 14% of the income of the top 20% of the wealthy does.

Growth, which is a mantra currently filling the political airwaves in the UK, relies on a pool of available workers who are not currently employed - and they need to be looked after. The Welfare State is the mechanism by which this is achieved.

The advantage of the Welfare State is that it's a system of insurance that is bought in bulk and thus much cheaper than leaving it to individuals to fund. The USA, for example, is the only rich country that doesn't have a universal public health insurance system, but commercial health insurance is prohibitively expensive for many on the lower end of the pay scale. The USA, as a consequence, pays upward of 40% more on, for example, healthcare than similar, rich countries and, despite this, has the worst health record in the rich world, mainly due to the health system being fragmented and uncoordinated, making the benefits of bulk buying unachievable.

The Welfare State has become the means by which the state combats the natural insecurities that are inherent within capitalism in the pursuit of dynamic growth by reducing the resistance of the workforce to new technologies and working practices.


Friday, 21 October 2022

Gone

If I were a contender for the leadership of the Tory Party, I'd only accept the nomination only on the proviso that the leader isn't changed after the next GE and that I'd have a free hand in briefing against the ERG and the Tufton St cabals that have resulted in the destruction of the Conservative Party. 


I'd also seek to isolate the ERG members so they are deselected at the next GE. Only then does the Party have a chance of rebuilding itself.

Any of the 51 plus members of the ERG should be banned from standing as leader, else we're just going to have yet another round of libertarian experimentation.

As for those calling for an immediate GE - the party that has a majority is at liberty to choose whoever it wants as leader, whenever it so wants. Like it or loathe it, that's the democratic mandate that our system is based on. It may not be moral, but it's certainly legal.


Thursday, 20 October 2022

Motorhome Speed Limit

A friend of mine was done for speeding on the A30 in Cornwall the other day for doing 69mph on the A30, which is a 70mph dual carriageway, in his campervan. He was told this was because his class of vehicle had a separate speed limit, which is 60mph.


While this is true of of motorhomes over 3 tonnes, it's not true of campervans of under 3 tonnes, which his vehicle is. I believe it's possible he was the victim of an overzealous mobile camera operative.

The rules are as follows. Motorhomes, campervans and caravans with an unladen weight of greater than 3050kg or more than 8 passenger seats: Single Carriageways: 50mph. Dual Carriageways: 60mph. Motorways: 70mph.

However, if your vehicle is less than 3050kg, it's 70mph on a dual carriageway, and I believed he could appeal, as his vehicle is a campervan.


That being said, there's an anomaly, as shown in the image above for goods vehicles not exceeding 7.5 tonnes. Is it debatable whether a converted van is a goods vehicle or a motorhome? It depends on how your vehicle is described on the V5. My motorhome is nevertheless described as a PLG on the V5, which is a vehicle under 3.5 tonnes and it's described in the user manual as 3.4 tonnes, maximum permissible laden weight - not unladen. Looking further into the user manual, it lists the mass in running order (unladen weight) as 2.649 tonnes, which enables me to do 70 on a dual carriageway.

Stop Press: After talking further to my friend, it transpires his campervan was initially registered as LGV, so he's liable for the speeding fine. I believe it's possible to have the taxation class for a conversion changed, but it takes a lot of time and form filling. Those who specialise in making motorhomes from commercial vehicle chassis, such as Swift, do this before selling them.

Beware if you're doing your own conversion.


Wednesday, 19 October 2022

New Leader

No-one with any sense or ambition is going to want to replace Truss when there remains a large cabal of ERG members in the Parliamentary Party and the Tories are likely to be decimated at the next General Election anyway. 


A serious contender (if Truss hasn't already threatened an immediate GE if she's unseated) would want to launch a leadership bid after a GE, with a rejuvenated Parliamentary Party shorn of the ERG members who have been the cause of all the current problems - providing that person retains their seat.

Ergo, any person selected by Tory MPs as a replacement for Truss is destined to be merely a caretaker PM and not someone likely to turn around the ship of state within 2 years.

Anyone in the current Cabinet is far too tainted by association with Truss.  

Boris Johnson? No - he's too lazy to clear up the mess, despite the wider Party members wanting him, and Tory MPs are sick of defending him in the morning and being shown up as fools for doing so the same evening, which is why they got rid of him in the first place.

Theresa May again? Possibly - even if only to get one over on Johnson.


Tuesday, 18 October 2022

General Election Date

Many are calling for a General Election now, but it won't happen.


  • If one were to be called now, the government would fall and Tory MPs in Parliament would be decimated.
  • Call one nearer the 23rd January 2025 deadline, after Truss has been replaced, and there's a small, but much increased possibility of a larger number of Tory MPs retaining their seats.
On the basis of the above options, there's no shadow of a doubt that the 2nd option will be chosen.

There's also no shadow of a doubt that allowing Tory MPs to select their leader, without reference to the wider Party, is infinitely more democratic than giving the choice to 80,000 odd, unelected party members with no mandate whatsoever - and not to mention an abysmal record of choosing a suitable leader.

In order to avoid referring to the wider Party members, all the MPs have to do is to ensure their final choice (providing they can change the 12 month challenge rule) is unopposed and it's then entirely within the rules that a vote by the wider Party can be circumvented.

The current crisis is due to an internal coup by the extreme, libertarian ERG, who we taxpayers have funded. Tory MPs who are ERG members recoup their £2k p.a. ERG subscriptions by claiming them as expenses, which are funded by us. They used to be declared as ERG subscriptions, but more recently they've been hidden as general expenses.

Both Truss and Hunt are insisting that Truss will lead the Conservatives into the next GE. That is possible, if she threatens Tory MPs with an immediate GE if there are moves to remove her, but that puts her own interests before those of the country and her MPs.


Monday, 17 October 2022

Photo

 While in Llanberis this weekend I took this photo, of which I was rather proud and put on Facebook.


That is, until I learned that every photographer who visit the area takes exactly the same photo - and here's the proof from Google Images..


Bastards!


Sunday, 16 October 2022

Cameras

Those speed camera signs that litter our roads are a familiar sight, but would anyone under the age of 50 know what the icon on the signs actually represents?

Gatso speed cameras were developed 30 years ago in the early 90s, when everyone would have been familiar with the old Hasselblad style camera, but cameras have moved on a bit since then. 

If you asked a teenager today what the icon actually represented in the real world, I think they'd have a problem making the association with the style of camera depicted, although they are aware it means a speed camera. 

Surely it would be better to depict an icon of a yellow Gatso? 


Or, perhaps, this icon. 



Saturday, 15 October 2022

Genteel Dilapidation

 We're away this weekend staying with my brother in West Kirby. Took a trip to my old hometown of Southport and was saddened to see what it has become. What was once described as the most elegant street in Europe (admittedly in Lancashire Life) has become a boulevard of shuttered shops and charity shops.




Some of the sights haven't changed, being eternal. 






Friday, 14 October 2022

Workshop Heating

I bought an infrared, wall mounted heater for the workshop, when it's completed. It cost me under £100 and I'm trying it out in the living room.


Obviously the living room is far too large to be heated comfortably by an 850W heater, but at least I'll get a good impression of how well it heats. Should be perfect for taking the chill off the workshop given I can't connect it to the underfloor system.  

It can be controlled by an App on an IOS or Android phone via Wi-Fi, but you first have to connect to a 2.4GHz network, which I currently can't be bothered to do on my Vodafone router.

Here's the make, if anyone is interested.



Thursday, 13 October 2022

Trade 101

I've been arguing with a numpty who refuses to acknowledge that Brexit has led to a decrease in trade and a consequent loss in GDP.


Lets look at the logic:

  • Why do companies export? To grow their market and business. Countries like export trade, as it offsets imports, which could risk a huge imbalance of trade and money leaving the country.
  • Why do countries enter into trade agreements? Because they reduce tariffs and paperwork and hence facilitate increases in trade through decreasing trade friction. Most importantly, and the key to the argument is that, if this isn't the case, then why did we ever join the EU and why have the Conservatives been scrabbling around seeking trade deals to replace lost EU trade?
  • If you're in a trade deal, then it's logical to expect that leaving such trade deal will put cost barriers back in the way of trade, leading to a decrease in export trade and hence GDP, especially with your largest trade partner. It won't curtail exports completely, but there will be a significant loss when competing against countries still within the trade area, which will have lower prices than you - you're at a structural disadvantage. Even if you do manage to keep exporting into the bloc you just left, profits will take a hit because you (or your customer) have to absorb the extra costs, meaning a loss of GDP.
  • If people leave your country as a result of leaving a trade bloc with Free Movement, or leave the economy and retire early, then there will be a number of job vacancies. Yes, this will lead to a drop in unemployment. This is not due to growth in the economy, but a contraction in the labour force. There are currently 1.2m unfilled vacancies (see chart below), and every unfilled vacancy reduces output, profit and hence GDP. To grow an economy, a country needs a certain amount of unemployed (and skilled) people to fill vacancies that occur because of growth - it's a necessity for growth, commonly called a reserve army of labour. The higher the growth, the larger that army has to be to absorb the new jobs.
  • This is irrespective of any other factors which many be affecting productivity, be that Covid or the war in Ukraine.
  • It can be argued as to how much of an effect leaving a trade deal has on the economy, but trade statistics are published and the OBR has estimated that we have suffered a 4% decrease in GDP due to Brexit alone. This is not a forecast, as my interlocutor maintains, but history, based on observed statistics prior to Covid and the Ukraine war.


How anyone can argue this is not the case defies common sense and is the hallmark of an ideologue.

 

Wednesday, 12 October 2022

Coronation

King Charles is talking about scaling down the coronation celebrations, but some Royalists are doing their nut and saying we need some happiness in these dire times; however, that's already on the cards when the Tories are routed at the next General Election.


How about using an old, tried and trusted method to top up the cost that was used to erect public building and statues in the 1800s - a public subscription. Those that want a lavish ceremony could then pay for it, while the rest of us who are not that fixated on undeserved privilege don't have to. 

The screening could be made pay-per-view, further helping pay for the spectacle, with the Earl Marshal (The Duke of Norfolk) organising screening rights.


Tuesday, 11 October 2022

Garage Update

The garage and workshop are progressing well and on schedule for completion by the end of November, if not earlier. The roof trusses are now on the workshop extension to the house.

Here's a view from the front.



And the back, which includes the workshop.



Can't wait to get a GT6 project in there...


Monday, 10 October 2022

Doo-Doos

I was in the car yesterday, on the way to getting the Sunday paper, and I heard someone on the radio say; No, but what we do do is..... blah, blah, blah."


It struck me that we use the double 'do' quite a lot, but is there any need for the extra 'do'? Surely one 'do' in enough, as in; "No, but what we do is..... blah, blah, blah," or does the double 'do' mean something different?

Sunday, 9 October 2022

Catch 22

Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, among others, have written opinion pieces in today's newspapers, calling for Tory MPs to rally behind Liz Truss or risk losing their seats at the next GE.


The iron is that if they do rally around Lis Truss, a PM less popular even than Boris Johnson, they will definitely lose their seats in the next GE.

Catch 22.


Saturday, 8 October 2022

Rule

I don't know why, but I was thinking about the differences between monarchy and dictatorship. There's very little difference, but we confer more legitimacy on monarchy than dictatorship, and I wonder why.


Today, seven countries: Brunei, Eswatini, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Vatican City State, and the United Arab Emirates, remain absolute monarchies. The Vatican is usually counted among these, but it's actually more of an elective dictatorship.

If we look at Kim Il Jung, there's not a shred of difference between his rule and that of an absolute monarch. The North Korean dictatorship is hereditary, which means it's a monarchy in all but name.

Prior to William the Conqueror, Saxon kings had to be legitimised by a vote of the Witan, making the monarchy a constitutional monarchy. Following William's invasion, the Witan was relegated to merely a name and William, in effect, declared himself dictator for life and made the monarchy hereditary and absolute. Yes, it was hereditary prior to William, but still subject to the Witan's agreement and the Witan had the ultimate authority. That situation lasted till 1688, when England once again became a constitutional monarchy.

Which is more stable - a dictatorship or a monarchy? History would suggest that a monarchy is more stable, as the line of succession is fixed and stable, whereas there are many competing factions in the line of succession for a dictatorship - anyone can be a dictator, whereas only a few can be a possible monarch. It's when a line of succession is broken that countries undergo upheaval and possible civil war.


Friday, 7 October 2022

Workshop Heating

In the absence of a government energy-saving campaign, for a reason that's entirely ideological and bonkers, here's mine.

The new workshop that's being built isn't going to be connected to the underfloor heating that services the rest of the house, meaning I'm going to have to use electricity to heat it, should it need heat at all, and this has been giving me some thought about the most efficient form of electric heating, especially with the current price of electricity.

Earlier this week I delivered the week's milk supply to one of the cabins at the end of our garden, which are both rented by a company called Lupe Technology, in which we are minor shareholders. On entering the door I could feel radian heat on my skin and I wondered where the hell it was coming from, thinking it was an overhearing printer or computer.

On walking toward where I believed the heat was coming from, I was astounded to find it radiating from what looked like a wall mounted whiteboard. On touching it, yes, the heat was belting out from it. Looking around it I noticed a lead coming from the back and going to a wall socket. It was a wall mounted heater disguised as a whiteboard, but it was emitting infrared.


I asked the MD of Lupe where he got these hearers from and did a bit of research - apparently they're one of the most efficient types of electric heaters and aren't at all expensive - £120 for a 700W version. Perfect for the workshop and you can control them via WiFi using a phone App. You can get mirrored ones, or ones with pictures on them.

 

Thursday, 6 October 2022

Disaster in Birmingham

What a disaster of a speech by Liz Truss. I don't even give her to Christmas at this rate. She's a high functioning ideologue who is totally bereft of empathy or humanity and can't see any position, other than her own. This is exemplified by her standard; "I don't accept the premise of your question," response when being questioned.

The choice of her entrance song must have been made by a bloke (denied by her spokesman), as blokes just go for the tune and pay no attention whatsoever to the words and, as anyone who is familiar with the words of Moving On Up will know, they're totally inappropriate. Marketing 101.

Additionally, it's always best to check with the writer of the song that they agree to their song being used. It's rather bad PR to have the writer emerge from the woodwork, as the founder of M People did, and have them furious at being associated with the event and the people. 

Truss' speech was full of contradictions and hypocrisies  - one minute praising British workers for their aspiration, and then trashing them for having the temerity to aspire to a decent wage by going on strike. 

Plenty of 'whats' but bugger all 'hows'. 2 week guarantee for a doctor's appointment - how is that going to be achieved? Nothing she said wasn't a repeat of her party election campaign.

Another mistake was to stand in front of a bluescreen, which gave digital warriors the perfect opportunity to put whatever background in there that they wanted, including immigrants, food banks and pipes pumping sewage into rivers and beaches, as per the example below.


While; "Education, education, education," worked for Blair, you can't repeat a rhetorical trick and hope for it to succeed again with; "Growth, growth, growth," a couple of decades later. You need a new mantra, although Truss gave us her opponents the perfect one when she called for the GreenPeace protesters to be ejected - "Let's get them removed." I can just see Labour adopting that.

As for ditching EU Red Tape - the Conservatives have increased Red Tape, especially for exporters wanting to export to the EU. Unadulterated nonsense that anyone with half a brain can see is totally vacuous.

Vested interests dressed up as think tanks? The ERG, the Tax Payers' Alliance, the Institute of Economic Affairs, the Bruges Group - they all put her where she is, for heaven's sake.

Doubling down on oil and gas production - the products that generally come from countries with questionable human rights records (and that now includes the UK, given Cruella Braverman's expression of glee at getting flights to Rwanda going) - is not exactly what the more sensible section of the population wants to hear. As for fracking.....

The Anti-Growth Coalition - what exactly is that? Seems it includes everyone except the Conservatives. The institutions she mentioned aren't anti-growth, but just don't want the same mistakes of the last 12 years to be repeated. By the OBR's own analysis, the UK has lost £100bn a year of output, which is a 4% drop in GDP. How's that for the Party of Growth? The T shirts are selling like hotcakes, apparently, and people are queueing up to become affiliated.


Of course, the 'faithful' lapped it up and clapped like trained seals. It would seem that the Conservative Party has become the Labour Party's recruitment arm and Truss is the Tory Party's Jeremy Corbyn. I'm surprised Labour didn't offer to pay for the conference to continue for another couple of days.

Given the Party's atrocious record on selecting leaders, I can see the Party's role being minimised after their defeat at the next General Election. 


Wednesday, 5 October 2022

New Hobby

Guess what my new hobby is from this photograph.


Here's a couple of clues.


Oh, hang on, those are the clues for the other hobby - the one we don't talk about. Here are the clues I meant....



Hay and I have become addicted to the TV programme, Gone Fishing, with Paul Whitehouse and Bob Mortimer. It's not so much the fishing as the anarchic repartee and places they stay, but even the fishing has grown on me to the extent I want to try my hand at some fly fishing. 

Both Paul and Bob had cardiac health scares some years ago and the programme was a therapeutic adventure. Poor old Bob wasn't feeling well last weekend and had to be admitted to hospital.

When we go away in the motorhome, more often than not we're very near a river or the sea. Sea fly fishing might seem illogical, but it's apparently a thing and is growing in popularity.

I got the fly rod from e-Bay on a house clearance. Same with the flies. Hay is convinced they'll be back on e-Bay before a year is out.


Tuesday, 4 October 2022

Glacial Growth

Kwasi Kwarteng yesterday said in his speech yesterday that the UK has historically 'glacial' GDP growth.


If you peruse the UK GDP chart above, you can see that, from the 1980s onwards, GDP growth was quite impressive. In 2008/9 there was a severe drop, caused by the Global Financial Crisis, but it then continued to grow until around 2016, after which it went rather flat. I wonder what happened in 2016?

The S&P Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has remained below the 50-level that separates growth from contraction for 3 months in a row, driven by lack of foreign demand. 

Kwarteng wants to help people with their fuel bills AND grow the economy, but he was rather vague as to how long this growth would take to appear and how foreign investors would be attracted to the UK when their market for products would, in all effect, be limited to just the UK. 

Here's my rather radical idea.

  1. A windfall tax on energy producers, resulting in the UK having to borrow less and thereby lessening pressure on interest rates. High interest rates, after all, are a disincentive to investment in growth.
  2. Join a trading bloc, ideally one on our doorstep and one that has zero tariffs. This, I guarantee, would fuel market confidence and increase our GDP by something like 4%, which sounds suspiciously like the figure that experts believe we lost from our GDP by a certain action that was taken in 2016 and led to a decline in foreign demand. It would also solve the Northern Ireland issue at a stroke and possibly attract foreign investors who want to trade with that trade bloc. 

Simple! I wonder why no-one has voiced it before....

Kwarteng refused to admit he was politically wrong about the 45p tax rate, which might have gone some way to regaining a modicum of trust in him; instead he called it a distraction. Whoosh - any trust went straight out of the window.