Found by the Associated Press in a building in Timbuktu, the ancient city
occupied by Islamists last year, the document is believed to have been abandoned
as extremists fled a French military intervention last month. It is a Xeroxed
copy of a tipsheet authored by a Yemeni extremist that has been published on
some jihadi forums, but that has made little appearance in English.
The list reflects how al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghbreb anticipated a military
intervention that would make use of drones, as the war on terror shifts from the
ground to the air.
The document also shows the coordination between al-Qaeda chapters, which
security experts have called a source of increasing concern.
"This new document... shows we are no longer dealing with an isolated local
problem, but with an enemy which is reaching across continents to share advice,"
said Bruce Riedel, a 30-year veteran of the CIA, now the director of the
Intelligence Project at the Brookings Institute.
While some of the tips are outdated or far-fetched, taken together, they
suggest the Islamists in Mali are responding to the threat of drones with sound,
common-sense advice that may help them to melt into the desert in between
attacks, leaving barely a trace.
"These are not dumb techniques. It shows that they are acting pretty
astutely," said Col Cedric Leighton, a 26-year-veteran of the United States Air
Force, who helped set up the Predator drone program, which later tracked Osama
bin Laden in Afghanistan.
"What it does is, it buys them a little bit more time - and in this conflict,
time is key. And they will use it to move away from an area, from a bombing
raid, and do it very quickly," he said.
The success of some of the tips will depend on the circumstances and the
model of drones used, Col Leighton said. For example, from the air, where
perceptions of depth become obfuscated, an imagery sensor would interpret a mat
stretched over the top of a car as one lying on the ground, concealing the
vehicle.
New models of drones, such as the Harfung used by the French or the MQ-9
"Reaper," sometimes have infrared sensors that can pick up the heat signature of
a car whose engine has just been shut off. However, even an infrared sensor
would have trouble detecting a car left under a mat tent overnight, so that its
temperature is the same as on the surrounding ground, Col Leighton said.
Unarmed drones are already being used by the French in Mali to collect
intelligence on al-Qaeda groups, and US officials have said plans are underway
to establish a new drone base in northwestern Africa.
The US recently signed a "status of forces agreement" with Niger, one of the
nations bordering Mali, suggesting the drone base may be situated there and
would be primarily used to gather intelligence to help the French.
The author of the tipsheet found in Timbuktu is Abdallah bin Muhammad, the
nom de guerre for a senior commander of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the
Yemen-based branch of the terror network.
The document was first published in Arabic on an extremist website on June 2,
2011, a month after bin Laden's death, according to Mathieu Guidere, a professor
at the University of Toulouse.
Prof Guidere runs a database of statements by extremist groups, including
al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, and he reviewed and authenticated the document
found by the AP.
The tipsheet is still little known, if at all, in English, though it has been
republished at least three times in Arabic on other jihadist forums after drone
strikes took out US-born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki in Yemen in September 2011 and
al-Qaeda second-in-command Abu Yahya al-Libi in Pakistan in June 2012.
It was most recently issued two weeks ago on another extremist website after
plans for the possible US drone base in Niger began surfacing, Prof Guidere
said.
"This document supports the fact that they knew there are secret US bases for
drones, and were preparing themselves," he said. "They were thinking about this
issue for a long time."
The idea of hiding under trees to avoid drones, which is tip No 10, appears
to be coming from the highest levels of the terror network. In a letter written
by bin Laden and first published by the US Center for Combating Terrorism, the
terror mastermind instructs his followers to deliver a message to Abdelmalek
Droukdel, the head of al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, whose fighters have been
active in Mali for at least a decade.
"I want the brothers in the Islamic Maghreb to know that planting trees helps
the mujahedeen and gives them cover," bin Laden writes in the missive. "Trees
will give the mujahedeen the freedom to move around especially if the enemy
sends spying aircrafts to the area."
Hiding under trees is exactly what the al-Qaeda fighters did in Mali,
according to residents in Diabaly, the last town they took before the French
stemmed their advance last month. Just after French warplanes incinerated rebel
cars that had been left outside, the fighters began to commandeer houses with
large mango trees and park their four-by-fours in the shade of their rubbery
leaves.
Hamidou Sissouma, a schoolteacher, said the Islamists chose his house because
of its generous trees, and rammed their trucks through his earthen wall to drive
right into his courtyard. Another resident showed the gash the occupiers had
made in his mango tree by parking their pickup too close to the trunk.
In Timbuktu also, fighters hid their cars under trees, and disembarked from
them in a hurry when they were being chased, in accordance with tip No 13.
Moustapha al-Housseini, an appliance repairman, was outside his shop fixing a
client's broken radio on the day the aerial bombardments began. He said he heard
the sound of the planes and saw the Islamists at almost the same moment. Abou
Zeid, the senior al-Qaeda emir in the region, rushed to jam his car under a pair
of tamarind trees outside the store.
"He and his men got out of the car and dove under the awning," said Mr
al-Housseini. "As for what I did? Me and my employees? We also ran. As fast as
we could."
Along with the grass mats, the al-Qaeda men in Mali made creative use of
another natural resource to hide their cars: Mud.
Asse Ag Imahalit, a gardener at a building in Timbuktu, said he was at first
puzzled to see that the fighters sleeping inside the compound sent for large
bags of sugar every day. Then, he said, he observed them mixing the sugar with
dirt, adding water and using the sticky mixture to "paint" their cars. Residents
said the cars of the al-Qaeda fighters are permanently covered in mud.
The drone tipsheet, discovered in the regional tax department occupied by
Abou Zeid, shows how familiar al-Qaeda has become with drone attacks, which have
allowed the US to take out senior leaders in the terrorist group without a messy
ground battle. The preface and epilogue of the tipsheet make it clear that
al-Qaeda well realizes the advantages of drones: They are relatively cheap in
terms of money and lives, alleviating "the pressure of American public opinion."
Ironically, the first drone attack on an al-Qaeda figure in 2002 took out the
head of the branch in Yemen - the same branch that authoured the document found
in Mali, according to Riedel. Drones began to be used in Iraq in 2006 and in
Pakistan in 2007, but it wasn't until 2009 that they became a hallmark of the
war on terror, he said.
"Since we do not want to put boots on the ground in places like Mali, they
are certain to be the way of the future," he said. "They are already the
future."
Telegraph