A Lousy News Article on Melting Ice

This piece of AFP news from Straits Times came into my attention through Google News: Estimated icecap loss halved . In it, it was said that new published research showed that glacial ice melting in Antarctica and Greenland is only half as much as previously thought because the older estimates "fail to correct for a phenomenon known as glacial isostatic adjustment".

Having scanned through the mentioned research article a couple of days ago and knowing something about this subject, I must say that the article is quite wrong in its summary of the results. First, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a very well-known but poorly-constrained problem in such estimates. All previous estimates do take into account GIA, but how they take it into account is another matter. Different ways of modelling GIA yields different results. There is currently no best method of doing so.

Some are simple: a direct linear elastic rebound with a constant upward velocity; some are more complicated. Of course, if we have observations -- which can be achieved through GPS stations -- that will be ideal, but planting a station in the middle of Antarctica isn't quite cheap or easy.

What the new article has to offer is a semi-empirical method of modelling GIA. It is certainly insightful and novel, but this does not mean that its estimates are necessarily more accurate than previous numbers. Certainly, as the authors have suggested, more GPS stations will better constrain the uncertainties and eliminate poor models.

From my perspective, the AFP journalist is either poorly equipped to interpret scientific research, or has an opinion which skewed his writing. Regardless, it is a very lousy piece of news.

If you're interested, the original research article is here. If that's too tough, there's an analysis by Nature as well.

How many people outside Singapore has heard of the Youth Olympic Games?

I did a straw poll to shed some light on that question.

A Huge Serve of Simulation Data

Sometimes, it does seem quite incredible how fast the size of hard disks grow. 1 GB was quite a huge thing a decade ago, and now it's hitting 1 TB. It wasn't too long ago that people started collecting movies on their hard disks. I remember my first computer wasn't even big to hold a music collection!

Whenever I upgrade my computer or buy a new laptop, the size of the hard disk always seems amazing because of the great increase in space. And it was so when I got my current laptop, with ~ 500 GB split between Windows 7 and Ubuntu (on hindsight, I should not have left Windows so much space...). This is considering that I do not have a movie collection, and my music collection is rather small by most comparisons.

And that's when my simulation results come in. At ~ 40 GB a pop, it's grabbing my hard disk space like some super hungry monster. In fact, my hard disk looks puny now, being able to store at most 3 sets of simulation before I have to move them elsewhere. Fortunately, I only need them on my laptop to run some analysis scripts.

But still, 40 GB of data... Makes me wonder how people handled such simulations more than ten years ago when the code was first written.

Boo Boo Apple

After struggling with the PowerPC assigned to me for more than a week, I decided to give up on it. And when I say give up, I'm saying that my humble laptop can perform way better than the Mac OS X in that PowerPC in all respects that I need my desktop for.

Basically, I failed miserably in trying to dual-boot Linux on the PowerPC. Linux was installed but there was no way to boot it. Something to do with the bootable hard disk and stuff like that. But that's okay, because it's not essential for my tasks.

However, I needed MatLab and NCView as well, and I went mad trying to get them working on the PowerPC. For the former, the version that was supported for PowerPC was not available on the ANU MatLab website, so I had to hunt down the CD from the IT guys. And it was an old version which I suspect may not be compatible with the toolboxes that I need. For the latter, it just refuses to compile for no apparent reason.

So for a week I clashed with the desktop, and it was pretty much a draw: I got some stuff working but not all that I need. And a couple of days back, I brought my laptop and installed all that I need within one hour.

What can I say? Ubuntu rocks!

Good Student, Bad Teacher

From BBC News,

Zenna Atkins, stressing these were her personal views, earlier told the Sunday Times "every school should have a useless teacher".

Atkins, the chairman of Office for Standards in Education in UK, stressed that she is not telling schools not to eradicate bad teaching, but her point is that bad teachers may serve a purpose.

Actually, I do agree with her, in that a bad teacher can "teach" students something. For example, a crappy teacher may force students to learn on their own, to form study groups and assist each others, or even prompt students to take this issue up with the school and gain a lesson on activism. Lacking a concrete real life example, one can look at Harry Potter, who, in the fifth book, set up his own group for his peers to learn what their lousy teacher refused to impart.

Nonetheless, for bad teachers to "teach well", it will depend on the students themselves. If they are apathetic on their education, then bad teachers are bad. And it may also depend on the subject itself, because certain fields require much guidance.

So basically, bad teachers teaches students self-learning. And that's a quality one should have.

Wrestling with PowerPC

There is some sort of Mac fever in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics lab that I'm under. Pretty much all the desktops and laptops issued to staff and students are all Macs, and I've been assigned an old PowerPC system.

It doesn't matter much to me that it is old because I won't be performing high-power computing with the system. Nonetheless, the different shortcut keys and ways of handling files always irritates me whenever I used Mac, so I was determined to install Ubuntu on it (not to mention the increase in speed that will come with Linux).

But boy it was not easy. For some reason I could not get the Ubuntu CD to boot, only to discover today that PowerPCs require a different boot CD. And that's after I've burnt like two different CDs in my previous attempts. And my desk is out of CD-Rs. Moreover, there seem to be this tiny problem that the monitor cannot detect signals before Mac OS X boots. So when I try to bring up the boot selection screen, I cannot see a thing.

Hopefully, when I bring over a fresh CD-R tomorrow, I can get Ubuntu up and running without much problems...

Reversing Out of Facebook

For a couple of months, this blog has laid silent. Part of the reason is the increasing workload and real life commitments. But another part comes from using Facebook as an alternative.

Facebook is great for quick snippets of posts and it does automatically alert friends to what you're saying. Contrast this with blogging, in which people will be informed of an update if they subscribe to the feed or check the blog. It is like a very centralised RSS feed reader with a user-friendly and fast interface.

But soon I found it cumbersome. Much as it keeps me aware of things happening to other people, sometimes there is just information overload. Moreover, I found it hard to write longer posts like these.

I'll still be on Facebook, and I'll be alerted to important (in a relative sense) messages through email, but I think I'll still stick to my blog.

Rain, Strike and Exams

It rained this morning, and then in the afternoon. This makes cycling quite horrendous.

There was a scheduled bus strike today, so public transport is completely down. So it's either down to carpooling or taxi.

While I laze in my room with a steaming up of tea, I pity those with exams today.

Now, For the Proper Scientific Opinion on Climate Change

Here it is, finally, an objective survey of the opinions of scientists actively working in climate science, showing that 98% of them support anthropogenic climate change. I haven't had the time to look at the actual paper yet, but the linked news article seem to capture the gist of it, based on the abstract.

But honestly, ever since I've been keeping an eye out for articles on climate change, it is pretty clear to me that this kind of survey is superfluous. Most researchers, contrary to public perception, accept the basic tenets of anthropogenic climate change. And really, anyone would, given the wealth of published materials that substantiates the arguments. This study only exists because of the stark -- and sometimes baffling -- contrast between scientific opinion and public opinion.

Of course, there is plenty of debate and research on climate science, but that is mainly trying to quantify the effects. For example, it is accepted that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is revving up the temperatures; the debate now is on how much that temperature rise is gonna be. In fact, if you look at the BBC article, the climate sceptic interview said pretty much that. Unfortunately, when it goes out to the general public, it becomes a denial that anthropogenic climate change is occurring.

And expectedly, climate sceptics bring up the claim of publishing bias. Maybe that is true, but I've seen research articles challenging anthropogenic climate change that got through the peer-review process and was published on top-tiered journals. It is interesting to watch how their arguments get shredded by comments from other researchers (peer-reviewed comments, not Internet comments). I remember particularly fondly how one article got torn into utter bits by a very simple mathematical demonstration.

But then again, I doubt climate denialists care about proper science.

Warming Up

Ping! Revving up!

...

Welcome back to the living.

The Secrecy of an Overseas Vote

I contemplate on the titled subject in my other blog.

Earth Hour: A Confession

New post at the Bosonic State!

Fireworks at Canberra

This is kinda late, but I was kinda busy for the past week, and internet connection is having its period...

But anyway, it's Canberra's 97th birthday two Mondays ago and there's a week of events to celebrate it. Unlike Singapore where we have a huge National Day Parade and that's it, Canberra has concerts, symphony orchestras and hot air balloons to celebrate the city's birthday. I only attended the concert, and only the final end of the half-day event, primarily to catch the fireworks.

That was last Saturday, and then one week later yesterday, there was Skyfire 2010, which was yet another fireworks display that half of Canberra turned up.

So here goes, photos and videos:

The crowd at Stage 88 where the concert was held.

Audience at the front rows rocking to the music. It was much calming at the back where I was.

The final performance before the fireworks was by a band called Eskimo Joe. They were pretty good!


And the showdown of sparks.

Two hours before the scheduled fireworks. The shores of Lake Burley Griffin was packed with half of the city's population.


And a more spectacular cascade of fire show.

Guest Visitor to the Lecture

Maybe it was the rain over the weekend, or maybe it's just the season, but we've got a guy crashing our lecture this morning:

A close-up:

And man was it huge! It was about the size of my palm... estimate only, since I was not that enthusiastic in conducting a comparison in close range, lest it decided to inflate my hand.

Luckily, it was satisfied with its poor vantage point of the lecturer and the screen for the entire day.

The Disposable Toilet that Might Just Work

Although I am an environmentalist, I think the idea of shitting into a plastic bag and burying it is kinda hilarious via absurdity.

Especially if the product is called Peepoo.

But nonetheless, once the laughter dies, I think it might work... provided that a plot of land is not so filled with buried Peepoo that people would unearth a landmine while attempting to plant theirs.

More Updates

Updates: still no internet connection at my hall. The situation has now elevated to a tussle between the university's IT department and the service provider. Hopefully, the isolation will end by the end of next week. Meanwhile, it is going to the campus libraries to use the computers there (and thus involve quite some thumbdriving between them and my laptop). But the libraries are not always open: for example, on weekends it's after one in the afternoon before the doors are unlocked.

Meanwhile, on Friday I went to the welcome dinner at the Singapore High Commission. Good news: the food was good (and finally a curry that taste right); bad news: the HC was secluded and I got quite lost while cycling there; ugly news: it was raining, a rare for Canberra. I ended up with wet shoes and jeans, and spent the time chatting with the people there while eqiupped with squelchy socks.

Yesterday, I finally managed to find time to go for a leisurely cycle. A thunderstorm was forecasted, but failed to appear. Instead, the clouds went and dumped hail in Melbourne. In Canberra it was a slightly overcast but otherwise sunny afternoon.

Tomorrow is Canberra Day. Nothing on my schedule yet. Ah well, what's the rush?

Updates from Down Under

Sorry for the lack of updates about myself in Aussie. I had trouble finding internet connection: my hall has no internet connection (it's still being worked out).

That might sound strange, but it is actually because the hall I'm staying at right now is converted from a motel (for this term only). Effectively, it is a new hall set up to accommodate the growing student population; after this term, I believe the plan is to demolish the motel and build a hostel proper.

I'm not really complaining. Though the motel has quite horrible reviews, it was touched up to a decent degree for us. As for the internet... suddenly the free WiFi at McDonald's is such a terrific idea!

So far so good for now. More to come, but being internetless, it's gonna be sporadic until the situation changes.

Panopticlick

So you think you can be quite anonymous online? Think again. The Electronic Frontier Foundation, a US-based organisation fighting for civil rights in the electronic age has released a project called Panopticlick (a play of the word "panopticon") which tries to identify your computer through information about it freely available to websites.

You can read more about it here. Basically, the gist is that stuff like time zones, system fonts and user agents can create a fingerprint of your computer. (Being a privacy rights advocate, the data collected are anonymous.)

For my computer, even with javascript switched off, Panopticlick reports that,

Within our dataset of several hundred thousand visitors, only one in 8,016 browsers have the same fingerprint as yours.

With javascript enabled,

Your browser fingerprint appears to be unique among the 609,232 tested so far.

The dead giveaway (for javascript-enabled testing) is my highly customised browser plugins and system fonts, both of which are completely unique amongst all tested. Fortunately, I have nothing to hide; if I had, I'd be physically scrubbing my hard drive with scotch brite and WD40.

ME2: Freaking Awesome!

Precisely: the sequel to Bioware's critically acclaimed RPG/shooter is simply awesome and mindblowing. Mass Effect 2 continues the story from Mass Effect and takes the dangerous position of being the second of a trilogy (it seems from movies that the middle of the trilogy is weaker).

There is quite a revamp of numerous things. Inventory system, weapons, powers (and how they're used) are given an overhaul, and irritating features of the previous game such as poorly balanced characters, patience-testing elevator scenes and monotonous duplicates of side quests are now corrected. Most are for the better, but I dislike the new ammo system of weapons that is so typical of this genre (ME1 uses some sort of "overheating" mechanism to regulate bullet flow). Bugs are also somewhat rampant, causing the main character to get stuck somewhere in the environment.

But what's really gripping about ME2 is the storyline and the pace. There is certainly no lack of quality in the plot -- which is somewhat shorter -- and at critical points in the game, the pace can get your adrenaline gushing. I remember myself gripped with tension at one point in the middle of the game. While ME2 can be played without going through ME1 first, it is highly recommended for a good flow of the plot that the games are played in sequence.

Mass Effect 2. Lives up to expectations. Augments the legend of the Mass Effect universe.

URA Concept Plan 2011

In the planning of the Concept Plan 2011, which are long term guidelines updated every ten years on how Singapore should develop, the URA is seeking public opinions on how our urban environment should develop.

This is done through surveys, broken down into four categories, each of which will take about 10 to 15 minutes to complete (but of course the duration varies depending on how much you have to say). However, you do not have to do all four.

The link to the Concept Plan 2011 survey is here: http://spring.ura.gov.sg/conceptplan2011/. Do participate in the survey if you have the time, and especially if you have some opinions about how Singapore should develop.

For example, according to the Singapore Infopedia, a resource site maintained by the National Library,

Chek Jawa was up for land reclamation, intended for military training, and reclamation work was scheduled to start in December 2001. However due to public petition and feedback to preserve the very rich biodiversity of Chek Jawa, the government decided to defer reclamation on Pulau Ubin and leave the island untouched for at least another ten years.

(emphasis mine) so if you are concerned with the long term future of Chek Jawa, then perhaps you can give it a mention in the survey.

Speaking of which, I've made my input with regards to sustainable growth, and I think my opinions are somewhat disapproving of private vehicles, with my ideas of establishing "no drive" zones and taxing private vehicles more to subsidise public transport (in a transparent manner, of course!).

A Sciatic IPPT

I just took my IPPT test a few hours ago. Considering that I'm recovering from sciatic pain, it was quite a feat, actually. Of course, my pain is almost gone now, surfacing only when I stretch my left leg.

But stretching is somewhat involved when taking IPPT. While chin ups, sit ups and 2.4 km run did not demand much elongation of the muscles in question, the shuttle run and the standing board jump surely did. On hindsight, I ought to have booked my IPPT next week, since the pain would probably be gone by then, but the thing is, that was precisely what I thought last week!

So for the jump, it was the thrust of the jump that sent sizzles down the leg, and, as a consequence, the retraction of the legs immediately thereafter was not as easy as it seems. But this was still not as bad as the shuttle run. The crisis strikes when making the turn. When bending down to touch the metal bar, I could feel the pain echoing up my leg. It was not crippling in the sense that I did not have to roll over the ground and howl like a cockatoo. But in the presence of pain, the flesh is weaker, and that leg which was suffering was the one that is responsible for setting off my acceleration.

Result: my shuttle run timing was significantly slower than past attempts, but luck was on my side in that the shuttle run is probably the easiest to clear with a wide margin even for the top score. So even though my sciatica chalked up an extra second for my timing, I was still safely in the regime of a silver award.

But no way am I going to attempt an IPPT in the future when sciatica is under progress.

Singaporeans for Haiti

Just to spread the word around a bit. If you want but have not donated to the Haiti earthquake victims, there is this fundraiser going on. It's called Singaporeans for Haiti and the proceedings go to DirectRelief International.

http://dri.convio.net/goto/sgforhaiti

You'll need a debit/credit card to donate though.

Monkey Business

I was at MacRitchie Reservoir Park a few days ago when a troupe of long-tailed macaques started marching past me from behind.

There were quite a lot of them -- about fifty -- and quite many had their young clinging on to their bellies. There's also one making calls to some other in the trees.



Whatever happened in the background, it is just like the inspiration for Paul McCartney's Beatles song, Why don't we do it in the road?.

Old Laptop to Giveaway

My Thinkpad T43, bought in mid-2005, has lasted me very handsomely through my undergraduate days, requiring only a replacement of keyboard and the cooling fan. Most of the other parts are still intact, especially the battery which is usually the first to go down. The only drawback is its weight, a hefty 2.3 kg.

However, recently I got a new laptop with stylus capability (and one that is much lighter), so that note taking and PDF annotation will be much easier. This means that I no longer need this T43 anymore, so I've decided to give it away free to any friend who might need it, and will take good care of it (sorry, some sort of sentimentality at work here).

If no one wants, I can trade it in for some cash, but I don't think I can get much from a laptop of nearly five years old anyway. So any takers?

Just a point of note: the laptop comes with Windows XP pre-installed, but I've wiped it out into Ubuntu (much faster, really). I still have the recovery discs, but I dunno if they still work.

Migratory Pain

Last week, during a badminton match with some friends, my lower back muscle near the end of the spine suddenly seized up and I cannot bend down without acute pain. It's okay so long as I don't stretch that muscle, so at least I'm not crippled or hopeless. But still, it was very uncomfortable.

That was not the first occurrence. Sometime last June, I also suffered the same symptoms when I stood up -- yes, that's right, just standing up -- from an MRT seat. Over the following weeks, the pain then slowly migrated through my left butt cheek and down to the thigh, causing me to forgo my in-camp training.

Then in October it struck again while I was ferrying some cats from their cages in SPCA. However, strangely, the pain subsided by the evening and disappeared the next day, so this is either a sneak preview or something else altogether.

I did a Google search, and it seems that I'm suffering from sciatica. True to the symptoms, the pain does migrate, and right now my butt is rather sore and my thigh muscle feels stiff. I visited my family doctor (who gave me some painkiller and muscle relaxing drug the first time; the second time I didn't bother to see him), who advised me to go for an X-ray. There could be something wrong with my bones.

And the diagnosis from the X-ray was... I'm perfectly fine, skeletally speaking. So the pain I'm suffering is just some regular thing that drops by once every now and then, though the doctor told me this usually happens to older people...

I wonder how much the heavy load I've carried in the army is responsible for accelerating my age...

Unacceptable to have Dolphins in Captivity at IR

Some thoughts about the Sentosa IR's oceanarium after reading an article.