Below his pay grade, I suppose

Once you've been mayor of New York and run for president, the Senate is definitely a step down.

This is a perfect opportunity to poke more fun at all those sophisticated people who, in 2006-07, argued in all apparent seriousness that Rudy Giuliani could win the GOP presidential nomination. Dude spent $59 million and got . . . what?

Genius strategy: Bet the whole wad on Florida and finish third. Ron Paul got more delegates, which wasn't really that hard, seeing as how Rudy's delegate count was zero.

Exit question: What loser will Allahpundit support in 2012?

NY23: 'Mischief' by ACORN?

That's what Doug Hoffman says and, while Jude Seymour and Politico are skeptical, I've got a few insights at he American Spectator:

My own source suggested last week that it is unlikely that Hoffman's margin in those absentee ballots would be enough to erase the 3,026-vote gap. However, the need to ensure an accurate count, and to expose any potential illegalities, is still very important. If anyone has committed criminal wrongdoing in this upstate New York district, they need to be identified and prosecuted.
Furthermore, the narrowing of the gap by more than 2,300 votes between the reported results on Election Night and the actual vote tally shows how misreporting can affect political outcomes. If the reported margin had been narrower -- and especially if the tallies in Oswego and Jefferson had been accurately reported -- Hoffman never would have conceded that night.
Most of all, the discovery of the errors (or "mischief") in the vote-count makes it a near-certainty that Hoffman will challenge Owens in NY23 in 2010.

Read the whole thing. (Hat-tip: Memeorandum.)

Dede, the moderate victim?

Gag me with a Washington Post puff-piece:

Violet semicircles hung below her teary eyes as she recounted how Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck and other conservative leaders excoriated her for less-than-orthodox positions on gay rights, abortion and organized labor. Her nose reddened as she recalled her abrupt exit from the special election to replace John M. McHugh, whom President Obama had appointed as secretary of the Army earlier in the year.
The conservative movement's third-party candidate, Doug Hoffman, expected her support but, she said, the newcomer accountant "had no integrity." Plus, the Democrats were so nice! They called. They sympathized. They made her feel good about tossing her support to Bill Owens, who -- with her help -- became the area's first Democratic representative in more than a century. . . .

Dede Scozzafava says Doug Hoffman lacks "integrity"? Make me laugh. As to her victim status, her salary as an assemblywoman is more than $100,000. Nice work victimhood if you can get it.

Debunking Frank Rich's NY23 fantasies

He never set foot on the ground in the upstate New York district during the campaign, but previously interpreted it as Republicans "re-enacting Stalinism," and now the former New York Times theater critic knows exactly what the result means:

This race was a damaging setback for the hard right. Hoffman had the energetic support of Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, Rush Limbaugh and Fox as well as big bucks from their political auxiliaries. Furthermore, Hoffman was running not only in a district that Rove himself described as "very Republican" but one that fits the demographics of the incredibly shrinking G.O.P. The 23rd is far whiter than America as a whole -- 93 percent versus 74 -- with tiny sprinklings of blacks, Hispanics and Asians. It has few immigrants. It's rural. Its income and education levels are below the norm. Only if the district were situated in Dixie -- or Utah -- could it be a more perfect fit for the narrow American demographic where the McCain-Palin ticket had its sole romps last year.
If the tea party right can't win there, imagine how it might fare in the nation where most Americans live. . . .

Blah, blah, blah. Hoffman began the campaign with near-zero name-ID in the district and, by his own admission, was not the sort of "poised" and "polished" candidate who attracts voters by the telegenic force of his personal charisma.

Frank Rich didn't bother talking to the Hoffman campaign staff who, the day after the election, explained to me how the GOP establishment candidate Dede Scozzafava's dropping out (and endorsing the Democrat, Bill Owens) hurt their candidate.

Once Hoffman established himself as the conservative choice, this left Dede with a rump vote of liberals, personal friends, labor allies, etc., who amounted to less than 20% of the electorate, whereas Hoffman had more than 40%, and Owens was in the vicinity of 35% -- the usual Democratic vote in the 23rd District.

Until the morning of Oct. 31, then, Hoffman was set to win with something like a 44% plurality. Dede's withdrawal and endorsement of Owens, however, threw that calculus into disarray. It also created havoc with the Hoffman campaign's messaging effort. As of Sunday, there were still ads running on TV bashing Dede and depicting the election as a three-way contest. The Hoffman campaign was unable to get those ads stopped and replaced with new ads; meanwhile, the DCCC dumped $1 million in negative attack ads -- depicting Hoffman as a callous greedhead who wanted to ship jobs overseas -- into the local TV market in the final days of the campaign.

All of which is to say that there were unique factors at play in the final days of the NY23 campaign that argue against Frank Rich's claim that Hoffman's narrow loss represents an emphatic, decisive and final failure of the "tea party right."

Rich's biggest error is his mistaken impression of the Hoffman campaign as representing a narrow ideological sect. Anyone who spent much time at all talking to Hoffman supporters in the 23rd District -- you could ask John McCormack or Dave Weigel about this -- would tell you that his candidacy drew strong support from every component of the conservative movement.

The lessons of NY23 are really more tactical than ideological. There were about a dozen top people on Team Hoffman who are privy to the inner rationale of the campaign, its methods and strategies. This esoteric understanding of NY23 will be missed or misunderstood by those who view the campaign in a superficial way.

Hoffman's candidacy provides a template for a different style of Republican campaign, one that bases its appeal on a grassroots "outsider" argument, effectively employs online messaging and fundraising, and draws on the Tea Party volunteers for organizational "boots on the ground" support.

What was learned from the NY23 experience will be applied first in a series of GOP primaries -- including the Florida Senate primary -- and subsequently in the 2010 general election. If the GOP stages a comeback in next year's mid-terms, the Hoffman campaign will be seen in retrospect as a turning point.

NY23 Farewell: Final deadline in the Buffalo airport; final wisdom to come

The National Desk is about to head south, toward home, where I'm awaited by a wife, six kids, two dogs and innumerable cats who haven't seen me in a week. I just filed 1,400 words for the December print edition of The American Spectator -- subscribe now! -- and three weeks of campaign-trail frenzy are over.

Just another hour or so to decompress and pack up the rented Nissan, and I'll be rolling down the highway, dodging the state police radar traps. Heaven knows what the rental agency will say when they see the (minor, superficial) damage to the Nissan caused by my low-speed collision with a deer when I made the mistake of slowing down in Tupper Lake.

That was six days ago. Seems like forever. Please hit the tip jar. And pray.

UPDATE: OK, I've now sent the photos and the editors are talking about how many pages the article will run in the December issue -- subscribe now! -- but it was impossible to summarize in a mere 1,400 words what has happened in NY23. The people involved in the Hoffman campaign were all aware that they were working to develop a new model for connecting Republican candidates to the conservative grassroots.

As I was lashing together my article, it seemed to me that the tipping-point of the Hoffmania momentum shift was Oct. 16, when the Siena poll showed Hoffman surging while Scozzafava had fallen behind the Democrat. That was the same day Michelle Malkin's column called Scozzafava "An ACORN-Friendly, Big Labor-Backing, Tax-and-Spend Radical in GOP Clothing."

Two weeks later, the final Siena poll confirmed what the Hoffman people had known for some time: Dede was heading for a weak third-place finish. So the RINO quit and repaid the GOP Establishment by endorsing Democrat Bill Owens. Exposing RINOs as untrustworthy creatures was worth whatever damage might be suffered by having Owens in Congress -- until next year, when the freshman Democrat will face a re-energized GOP grassroots in NY23.

Go back and read my "Memo to the Grassroots." I didn't know it at the time, but that Hot Air Green Room post was written the same day that Yates Walker decided to hire on as manager of the Plattsburgh office of the Hoffman campaign. Yates was just one of several people who helped turn the Hoffman campaign into such a stunning dynamo of grassroots energy.

Yesterday morning in Saranac Lake, Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan -- whose insights appeared here more than once, attributed to a "campaign source" -- told me to make sure to say some kind words about the Hoffman staffers. The campaign managers, Dan Tripp and Matt Moran, were in charge of organizing and directing the campaign.

Pollster John McLaughlin and press aide Sandy Caligiore did important work, as did HQ press man Sean Kennedy and logistics operative Sean Mahoney. Tripp's key aides O'Brien Murray and Jake Menges were important, as was Rick Ahearn, who learned to do advance work with Ronald Reagan. Bob Adney ran the Watertown office, while local Tea Party activists Jill Bernstone and Sil Johnson ran the operations in Madison and Oswego counties.

Just got off the phone with Dan Tripp, who would no doubt laugh at the idiocy of Rachel Maddow:

This wasn't about a bunch of extremists purging a moderate. To begin with, Dede Scozzafava is no "moderate" and the people who made the Hoffman campaign such a dynamo were no more "extremist" than that dangerous right-winger, Ronald Reagan.

Dan Tripp says the basic problem is that the GOP establishment has gotten used to outsourcing campaign work to high-priced consultants, to the neglect of old-fashioned "boots on the ground" volunteer organizing. And who can disagree? The Republican Party has some analogs of perennial Democratic loser Bob Shrum -- the overpaid "expert" who knows everything except how to win elections -- and these professional losers have been collecting fat fees for failure.

Doug Hoffman was willing to stand up and fight, and by doing so, helped awaken the Ordinary American to the possibility of what can be done if people will take on an active role as citizens, becoming involved with the political process and refusing to let the "experts" boss them around.

As Yates Walker told me over breakfast Wednesday morning at the Blue Moon Cafe on Main Street in Saranac Lake: "I couldn't be prouder." So I'm heading south with my head held high, and with hope in my heart.

The NY23 National Desk is now closed, and the next stop is home. Thanks for your prayers.

HOFFMANIA LIVES!

NY23 Election Results HQ; UPDATE: Team Hoffman predicts 'close' victory; UPDATE II: Numbers in the war room; UPDATE III: HOFFMAN CONCEDES

12:35 a.m. WED. 12/4: "This one was worth the fight," Doug Hoffman said in his concession speech. "This is only one fight in the battle."

Now all the pundits -- who, as Michelle Malkin observes, claimed that tonight didn't mean anything -- will tell us what it means. Nice work if you can get it.

I'm on deadline for the American Spectator, so not a complete wrap-up just yet, but when Hoffman's speech was over, one of his supporters said two words that struck me: "Twelve months."

Exactly. And only four months until . . .

Well, it's cold in upstate New York in November. But it's warm in Florida in August. Hit the tip jar.

12:05 a.m.: HOFFMAN EXPECTED TO CONCEDE IN STATEMENT.

11:32 p.m.: Neither the Owens campaign nor the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is declaring victory. As Ryan told me shortly after 11 p.m., "You don't see the Owens people jumping for joy. . . . They know the same thing we know" -- namely the uncertainty of unreported precincts and uncounted absentee ballots.

11:25 p.m.: "I think it's very premature," Hoffman campaign spokesman Rob Ryan said of the report that NBC News had called the race for Democrat Owens. "There's a buncn of big question marks out there." With many thousands of military absentee ballots and key precincts not reporting, the Hoffman campaign is ready for a long night.

11:20 p.m.: Hoffman campaign sources report that only 50 percent of the votes in Oswego County have been counted.

11:15 p.m: NBC has reportedly crawled out on a limb and called Democrat Bill Owens a winner. Beware of that.

10:51 p.m.: Clinton County is more than 75% counted, and the numbers there project well for Hoffman. A campaign source just said, "We're doing good in Oneida and St. Lawrence [counties], but we don't know if that's being reflect in the numbers" being reported on TV.

The top command of the Hoffman campaign is in a private banquet room dubbed "the war room," where they are crunching the numbers precinct by precinct. It's already been a longer night than most expected and guests at the party upstairs are getting restless.

Problems are reported with a total of 11 voting machines (4 in St. Lawrence County and 7 in Fulton County). With 63% of precincts reporting, Owens leads 49% to Hoffman's 44%, a margin of about 3,400 votes, with 5% for Dede Scozzafava. Many military absentee ballots (Fort Drum is in the district) are yet to be counted.

10:29 p.m.: Reports of voting machine malfunctions in St. Lawrence and Fulton Counties. National Review is a bit worried. The Hoffman campaign is still optimistic, but this long delay is stressful. As the percentage of returns increases an early lead for Democrat Bill Owens is shrinking. Whereas Owens led by 8 points with 21% reporting, it's now 5 points with 39% reporting. Stay tuned.

10:11 p.m.: At this point, with about 20% of precincts reporting, it appears that Democrat Bill Owens is returning very strong numbers -- indeed, suspiciously strong numbers -- in Dede Scozzafava's home territory of Jefferson County.

10:05 p.m.: There have been reports of problems with voting machines in the district. However, early returns from Clinton County -- home territory for Democrat Bill Owens -- indicate a Hoffman victory. Total turnout for Republicans was stronger than for Democrats in that key county.

In a conference call with bloggers, Susan B. Anthony List President Marjorie Dannenfelser just described the apparent conservative surge as "an organic movement that is rising up." SBA list put more than 200 volunteers into the 23rd District and distributed more than 100,000 pieces of literature on behalf of the Hoffman campaign.

9:20 p.m.: Watertown office of Hoffman campaign reports "strong" Republican turnout. GOP turnout in Plattsburgh also reported strong, lower turnout for Democrats.

9:15 p.m.: Hoffman press aide Sandy Caligiore: "We will win a close election." Conservative Party official Jim Kelly said he expects Hoffman to win a 42%-45 plurality in the three-way race. Remember that, even though Dede Scozzafava suspended her campaign on Sunday, her name is still on the ballot.

9 p.m.: Polls just closed. The Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times is planning to livestream the vote count. Will update frequently with the vote count, related news, and reports here from Hoffman campaign headquarters in Saranac Lake.

NY23: Live from Saranac Lake

At the Hotel Saranac, currently on a conference call with Hoffman campaign manager Dan Tripp. Will update . . .

UPDATE 5:40 p.m.: We had about 40 bloggers on the conference call, where we were joined by David Keene of the American Conservative Union, Mike Long of the New York Conservative Party and Erick Erickson of Red State, whose money quote was, "Victory or death!"

One Hoffman volunteer just reported that campaign internal polls show a very close race. Tripp says they're "feeling pretty good right now" but said, "we're going to be pushing like we're 10 points behind until 9 o'clock" -- which is when polls close.

In the category of "not news," Dede Scozzafava continues whining like a RINO loser.

Molly Line of Fox News is here at the Hotel Saranac. She says to tell y'all "hi." BTW, we made record time on Highway 3 on our way here. At 2:31 p.m., we were in Carthage, N.Y. At 3:09 p.m., we were on the other side of Star Lake. By 3:36, we were in Tupper Lake, and by 4:03, we pulled into Doug Hoffman HQ here in Saranac Lake.

It was at 3:45 p.m. that Ali Akbar got up his report of tires being slashed in Plattsburgh, via a Blackberry message. It appears, based on closer examination of the tire, that the Hoffman campaign worker ran over a bottle. But whatever the truth of this incident, I was too busy eluding the New York State Police to worry about it.

NY23: Please, God, let it end tonight

All you can do at this point is to get out the vote and pray:

Michelle Malkin is one of the few people you're likely to see on TV tonight who actually knows what it means. . . .
Last night, Malkin warned readers to be ready to watch Democrats and their media allies downplay an expected "conservative surge" in this off-off-year election.
OK, I can cope with that. . . . What I genuinely dread, however, is the possibility of vote-fraud shenanigans. Last night, I heard Hoffman spokesman Rob Ryan repeat his warnings about the danger of ballot-box mischief. And now ACORN whistleblower Anita Montcrief is worried, too. . . .

Read the whole thing. And pray. Pray hard.

Update (Smitty): NiceDeb has the details.

NY23: Hoffman is asked to react to Limbaugh's Dede 'bestiality' comment

Jude Seymour of the Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times is a nice guy, who let me use his office computer two weeks ago when I first came up to cover this campaign. Exactly why he chose this occasion to spring a "gotcha" question on Doug Hoffman, I don't know. Watch the video, and make your own judgment.

After the video ended, Jude found himself called before an impromptu meeting of the Conservative Journalism Criticism Squad. One reporter who shall remain nameless -- but who might be press corps pin-up idol John McCormack -- described Seymour's method as the "Inquisition" approach to journalism.

Me, I started out at a 6,000-circulation weekly in Austell, Ga. You don't do ambush interviews in that kind of situation. Maybe I'm really not ready for the big leagues. I report. You decide.

And hit the tip jar. I'd say you got your money's worth tonight, eh?

UPDATE: The Rush Limbaugh quote to which Hoffman was asked to react:

How about Dede Scozzafava? You know what? Dede Scozzafava has just screwed every RINO in the country by showing everybody who they are. . . . She has just put an exclamation point on the problem with RINOs. They eventually end up exactly where most liberals do. They're just a little slower in getting there. But they end up where liberals are. Scozzafava has screwed every RINO in the country. We could say she's guilty of widespread bestiality. She has screwed every RINO in the country. Everyone can see just how phony and dangerous they are.

Today, Seymour put up a blog post with the title: "Rush, you should be ashamed."

UPDATE II: While I was working on the first update, about 10 p.m., the phone rang here at the National Desk in Watertown. It was Dave Weigel of the Washington Independent, asking about our plans for a bit of post-deadline socializing. And I freaking lost it.

Some of my friends may remember my newsroom blowup in 2007, when I cussed out Ken Hanner and kicked a steel door open on my way out of the Washington Times. Persuaded to reconsider, I eventually quit on good terms in January 2008.

OK, I'm hell on deadline. And my own shortcomings and sins are so glaringly obvious that it's hard for me to blame anyone else for my problems. I goof off and procrastinate when opportunity affords. But when deadline hits, I get kind of crazy. So this was all my fault. Mea culpa.

Still, sometimes, I get that Rodney Dangerfield don't-get-no-respect feeling and, under pressure, I can be even more of a total jerk than usual. Think of General Patton slapping that shell-shock case in Sicily.

So I had a screaming conniption. Impatient by nature, what I wanted to do at that moment in time was to finish the update, so that readers would have context in which to interpret the video. What I did not want to do was to answer the phone and have to think about the questions that Dave Weigel was asking about our post-deadline party plans.

Present at the time in the smoke-filled hotel room that is the National Desk were Ali Akbar, Kerry Picket and Hooah Mac. Surely, one of them would do me the favor of taking the phone and dealing with Weigel's questions. Uh . . . no. Because nobody owes me any favors.

And I freaking lost it. At one point in the two-minute rant that ensued, I was quite literally frothing at the mouth. A lifetime of personal frustration exploded upon friends who were innocent. For this unseemly tantrum, I apologize to all who were forced to witness it. Mea culpa.

However, next time I ask someone to please answer the phone while I'm on deadline -- I pray to God -- just answer the phone. That Jekyll-and-Hyde horror show was more frightening to me than it was to you, my victims. My wife will bake you brownies to compensate, and will never let me live it down.

NY23 VIDEO: Local GOP Official, Ex-Dede Backer, Now 100% for Doug Hoffman

Jim Fitzpatrick is secretary-treasurer of the Jefferson County (N.Y.) Republican Party. He has been a friend of Dede Scozzafava for 25 years, but after Dede committed bestiality -- love it, Rush -- Fitzpatrick is now on board for Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

This is a natural consequence of Dede's graceless exit. By backing the Democrat, she ensured that Republican Party officials (regardless of ideology) would shift to Hoffman:

Doug Hoffman the Conservative candidate for Congress (NY23) today received the endorsement of the Jefferson County Republican Party.
Chairman Don Coon, "I spoke to Doug Hoffman about the campaign, and our issues down in Jefferson County particularly about Fort Drum and our local economy. I am confident that we will work closely together with Doug and our local elected officials to make sure that our local concerns are addressed in Congress. I am happy to endorse Doug Hoffman on behalf of the Jefferson County Republican Committee. Doug will be a champion for conservative values and will fight the Pelosi agenda in the Congress."

"Purge"? Dede purged herself. Autodefenestration. Look it up.

UPDATE: Creepiest video of the year? Dede's shifty-eyed husband Ron McDougall interviewed exclusively by Kerry Picket of the Washington Times.

NY23 Press Corps Motto: 'When We Grow Up, We Want to Be Like John McCormack'

He's only 24 years old, but already this cub reporter for the Weekly Standard is followed everywhere in the 23rd District by adoring journalism groupies. McCormack is to would-be reporters what Joe Jonas is to middle-school girls -- the fantasy consummation of their fondest desires. By daring to ask Dede Scozzafava a few questions, young Johnny has accomplished the life's ambition of every j-school undergrad: He has "made a difference."

McCormack files yet another exclusive report from today's Bidenpalooza in Watertown, where Secret Service agents were reportedly under orders to tase him if he tried to ask the VP a question.

Other reporters at the Biden event -- including Dave Weigel of the Washington Independent -- struggle to keep pace with the brilliant blues riffs of "Johnny Lightning" McCormack, who also plays a mean bottleneck-slide guitar.

A Syracuse TV reporter cleverly seats himself between Kerry Picket and Kara Rowland of The Washington Times. Life is good, until his wife sees this photo.

Feisty, colorful Democratic State Party Chairwoman June O'Neill (left, in ill-fitting brown pantsuit) engages in shameless pre-Election Day demagoguery, to the horror of local schoolchildren and their parents (right).

Network TV cameras wait for opportunity to add new footage for your "Joe Biden's Greatest Gaffes" DVD collection. Attacking the Wall Street Journal? Classic!

Home-schooled children get a civics lesson, protesting the Biden/Owens/Pelosi/ACORN agenda while hoping to catch a glimpse of their hero, "Johnny Lightning" McCormack.

Having despaired of getting any big scoops at the Biden rally, I walked outside and posed for a photo with local Palinista "Sapwolf," who crushed my ego by asking, "Hey, can you introduce me to John McCormack?"

Sunday night supper in Watertown hotel where we staged last night's blogger conference call.

The National Desk, Watertown, N.Y., noon today.

NY23: Biden brings Joe-mentum to Watertown; media flock to see him

Just left the Bidenmania rally eight blocks from my hotel. The star of the show, really, was N.Y. Democratic Party State Chairwoman June O’Neill, a diminuitive fireball of liberal demagoguery.

O'Neill warned of "right-wing extremists who have brought their hate-mongering tactics to this district." (Unless I was mistaken, this must have been a reference to John McCormack of the Weekly Standard, who was at the event and being closely watched by local police, lest he start asking Biden questions.)

"We have to stop the madness," O'Neill told a crowd of about 200 Democrats who turned out for an event covered by about 30 reporters, including seven TV crews. "We cannot afford to let the right-wing extremists make a point in this district. . . . The right wing is not right."

O'Neill named Rush Limbaugh ("boo!"), Sean Hannity ("boo!") and Glenn Beck ("boo!") among the out-of-town right-wingers whom she accused of attempting to impose themselves on the defenseless citizenry of the 23rd Distict.

O'Neill was introduced by state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, who was offered the Democratic Party nomination and turned it down, thus forcing the Dems to go with Bill Owens, a Plattsburgh lawyer. Owens seems to be a nice guy, but he has zero name-ID in most of the 23rd District.

Hoffman continues to lead in the latest Siena poll and, at this point, the "undecided" poll respondents should be told to stay home. If you don't know whether you're a Democrat or a "right-wing extremist," you're too dumb to be allowed to vote.

Did Joe Biden make another gaffe in today's speech? I don't know. I didn't stick around for the whole thing. Unlike big-shot media types who have state-of-the-art Internet communication gear provided to them by wealthy publishers, all I had with me was some old-fashioned stuff called "notes" written on the back of a press release. (Somehow lost my pen and had to borrow a ballpoint from another reporter.)

Anyway, I figured I'd better get back here to the hotel lobby and poach their computer to file this, before I got totally scooped. C'est la guerre!

UPDATE: See my report at The American Spectator. Also, we're linked by that right-wing extremist Gateway Pundit, and I have posted exclusive photos from the rally. Hey, I'm no John McCormack, but I try . . .

NY23: Fred Thompson coming to Watertown for big Monday event

News release from Hoffman HQ:

FRED THOMPSON SOUNDS THE BATTLE CRY FOR HOFFMAN
WILL APPEAR WITH DOUG HOFFMAN AND JOHN RICH IN WATERTOWN
Senator Fred Thompson (R-TN) said: "I'm coming up to Watertown on Monday to show my support for Doug Hoffman, and we need everyone who is concerned with the direction of our country to join me there tomorrow. Now that Doug is Target No. 1 for the Democrats' political machine, they are desperate to win.
"As you'd expect, the usual suspects are coming out of the woodwork, the DCCC, ACORN, the Working Families Party. It's no surprise that the other liberal who quit the race, Dede Scozzafava, is now back in the bunker. I hear even Joe Biden may drop by.
"I say, let them come. We have facts and sound, conservative principles on our side. That's our road map to victory and John Rich is going to give us the soundtrack to win by tomorrow night."

Wonder if Sarah Palin might decide to book a charter flight from Anchorage to Watertown. She's a country music fan, right?

NY23: Rumors swirlConfirmed

LAKE PLACID, N.Y.
A desperate struggle to control the narrative of the crucial special congressional election in upstate New York's 23rd District has broken out in the wake of Republican Dede Scozzafava's concession yesterday.

The Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times -- which previously endorsed Scozzafava -- stirred the pot this morning with an editorial backing Democrat Bill Owens and claiming that this was also Scozzafava's agenda:

During the day Saturday, she began to quietly and thoughtfully encourage her supporters to vote for Democrat William L. Owens.

That single sentence sparked online commentary and inaugurated a race by reporters to confirm or refute the newspaper's assertion. Kerry Picket of The Washington Times was first to follow up:

Former Scozzafava campaign spokesman Matt Burns seems to distance himself from Ms. Scozzafava's latest reported actions. He sent the Washington Times Water Coooler the following statement:
"As of yesterday, I am no longer affiliated with the campaign. Dede knows the most about the district and would have represented it well in Congress, but I am not familiar with her current thinking or decision-making." . . .
Ms. Scozzafava has yet to release a statement on the Watertown report.

Meanwhile, Democrats continue pouring on TV ads attacking Hoffman as a greedy millionaire whose agenda is to export jobs to India and China. Anti-Scozzafava TV ads -- purchased by outside groups not under control of the Hoffman campaign -- also continue airing.

Ali Akbar of 73Wire's Campaign Trail will be riding with me to Watertown this afternoon, and we will continue to pursue the story.

UPDATE: 73Wire now has their own report up. We're hitting the road to Watertown.

UPDATE II: (Smitty) TCOT Report points to the NY Daily News:

At 10 p.m. last night - right in the middle of the Halloween festivities - Scozzafava's husband, Ron McDougall, president of the Jefferson/Lewis/St. Lawrence Central Labor Council issued a statement through the AFL-CIO that he is endorsing Owens against Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.
...
Now that Scozzafava has bowed out of the race, her union backers are rushing to endorse Owens, which could prove crucial to him in the final hours of the race when it all comes down to the kind of GOTV that unions (or some of them, anyway) excel at.

Hopes for reconciliation dim.

UPDATE III: (Smitty) The hits just keep on comin'! Here comes the Puffington Host:

In the White House, at the very least, officials are bracing themselves for a loss, calling Scozzafava's departure bad news for Owens. The one hope, they say, is if Scozzafava -- who has more philosophical similarities with the Democratic Party than Hoffman's brand of Republicanism -- was to formally endorse her former rival.
"This hurts," one administration official told the Huffington Post on Saturday, "unless we can get her on board."
And on Sunday, the White House all but confirmed that it was after Scozzafava's endorsement. Appearing on ABC's "This Week," Obama's senior confidant, Valerie Jarrett said the administration "would love to have -- of course, have her support."

If Dede keeps up the good work, she's a shoo-in for the Arlen Specter Award for Deeply Held Principles.

UPDATE IV: (Smitty) Couple of posts at NORC,

• The Newtist Colony smack-down
• Hoffman Sends Out Request For Aid

UPDATE V: (Smitty)
TCOT Report points to the Watertown Daily Times, where, at 1406 local, Dede laid it on the line, emphasis mine:

You know me, and throughout my career, I have been always been an independent voice for the people I represent. I have stood for our honest principles, and a truthful discussion of the issues, even when it cost me personally and politically. Since beginning my campaign, I have told you that this election is not about me; it’s about the people of this District.

It is in this spirit that I am writing to let you know I am supporting Bill Owens for Congress and urge you to do the same.

I, for one, hope that the people of NY-23 form the bolded words into a polite suppository on Tuesday.

NY23 VIDEO: Ali Akbar gets the scoop

Thanks to the 73Wire.com Campaign Trail crew, I had sofa-surfing privileges at their headquarters in Lake Placid. Shortly after breaking the scoop this morning about Dede Scozzafava's pullout -- my sources confirming their sources -- 73Wire's Ali Akbar took a call from another one of his sources:

Hey, I'm Steve Foley's "personal matchmaker."

NY23 EXCLUSIVE VIDEO: Democrat for Bill Owens get-out-the-vote volunteer

Yesterday, I broke the story of the massive Democratic get-out-the-vote (GOTV) effort in the crucial upstate New York congressional special election. Today, as Ali Akbar and I rolled into Plattsburgh, we encountered Sean Holmes, a young volunteer canvasser for Democrat Bill Owens:

NY23: SCOZZAFAVA QUITS! UPDATE: New poll shows Hoffman in dead heat with Democrat Owens

Just confirmed that Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava has quit the race. Speaking to supporters, Scozzafava broke down in tears.

UPDATE: Scozzafava, the hand-picked choice of the New York state GOP in the key 23rd District special election, reportedly will throw her support to Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman.

Scozzafava's withdrawal came shortly after a new Siena College poll was released this morning, showing her in third place, with Hoffman neck-and-neck with Democrat Bill Owens.

UPDATE II: Steven Foley of 73Wire Campaign Trail is also on the story. Foley's crew is over at Starbucks, while I'm poaching the lobby computer at a hotel here in Lake Placid. I am the Poacher King.

My source called this morning to confirm the story while Foley was on the phone with his source. Ali Akbar has text of Dede Scozzafava's farewell.

UPDATE III: Linked at Hot Air where Ed Morrissey comments:

Scozzafava has seen her negatives explode, while her two opponents have only become more accepted as they became more well known. She has no chance of winning this race, and her withdrawal leaves Hoffman with the Republican vote whether she endorses him or not.

My buddy Jude Seymour at the Watertown (N.Y.) Daily Times also has the story:

Ms. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times that Siena Research Institute poll numbers show her too far behind to catch up - and she lacks enough money to spend on advertising in the last three days to make a difference.

UPDATE IV: Also linked at Right Klik, which is aggregating the news of Scozzafava from all sources. No word yet from Tucker Carlson.

UPDATE V: Also now linked at Paco Enterprises, Underground Conservative, Jammie Wearing Fool, and million-hitter William Jacobson at Legal Insurrection. We're grateful for the link by Michelle Malkin and by Richard McEnroe at Three Beers Later who says:

NEVER believe you don't have power. NEVER let them tell you that. . . .
Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, the rest of the thieving, corrupt, smug, lying Democrat Party . . . NEVER believe we aren't coming for you

Note the New York Daily News summary of the Sienna Poll:

Hoffman's voters are the most committed, with 93 percent of them saying that are either absolutely or fairly certain they won't be changing their minds on Election Day, while 84 percent of Owens' voters say the same thing about him and 73 percent of Scozzafava supporters are loyal to her.

There is something about the kind of grassroots underdog campaign that Hoffman is running that creates a resolute determination on the part of the candidate's supporters.

Speaking of resolute determination, now would be a good time to thank Nathan Cossey and all the dozens of other readers whose contributions to the Shoe Leather Fund have made possible this road trip. Please continue to hit the tip jar. Ali Akbar needs a ride to the Buffalo airport on Wednesday.

UPDATE VI: Thanks to Kim Priestap of Wizbang for noting that Eric Odom of 73Wire first reported the news of Dede's withdrawal via Twitter. The generosity of Odom, Foley and Akbar during this trip has been greatly appreciated, and certainly I don't want to glory-hog, given how often they've scooped me -- and will no doubt scoop me again. We're a news-busting posse, and it's a friendly competition.

We're a headline at Big Government and, via Memeorandum, we learn of our linkage from Doug Brady at Conservatives for Palin. Hey, does Sarah deserve credit for answering the call, or what? She's a big-game hunter, and the same skills that bag a moose can obviously be applied to RINOs. While we're handing out kudos, how about The Man Upstairs? Two weeks ago, I wrote at The American Spectator:

Hoffman's pro-life supporters have reportedly launched an e-mail campaign -- including prayer requests -- to secure the endorsement of Palin . . .

Well, those prayers were answered, weren't they? When you pray for angels, keep an eye out for those "angels unawares."

UPDATE VII: Big shout-out to Erick Erickson of Red State, who came out strong and early for Hoffman and pushed hard. The role of CPAC director Lisa De Pasquale -- who got about a dozen conservative bloggers on an Oct. 14 conference call -- must also be acknowledged. (Note to self: Make list of names for Wednesday a.m. discussion panel about NY23.)

Well, time to hit Starbucks, meet up with the crew and go get ready for the trip to Plattsburgh.

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

NY23: Saturday notebook

If you run a hotel, there's only one way to keep me from poaching your lobby Wi-Fi: Don't have Wi-Fi in your lobby. Somebody here in Lake Placid must have been warned I was coming, so instead of uploading the cool photos I've taken, I'm using the hotel's lobby computer, which doesn't have a slot for me to insert the chip from my camera. Sigh.

The Poacher King's original plan is thus foiled, but I'm thinking I'll have my revenge when I return to poach their free continental breakfast.

The cool news? Instapundit linked my American Spectator item about Democrats pouring in the big money against Doug Hoffman. I don't think it will be enough to elect Bill Owens, and I don't think Joe Biden will make a difference, either. Go back and check the 2008 Democratic primaries. The 23rd District was Hillary territory. Biden carries no weight up here. But I'll try to go see Joe, just in case he makes another one of his classic gaffes.

Friday afternoon, when word got around that NRCC was pulling its resources out of Dede Scozzafava's campaign, I overheard a guy explaining to a buddy what Team Hoffman's basic strategy had been from the start: "Kill Dede and we win."

Simple, brutal and true: The 23rd District is overwhelmingly Republican, and the Hoffman people knew that if Scozzafava couldn't get Republican votes, she couldn't win. Once it became apparent to Republican voters that Dede was a guaranteed loser, the momentum shift to Hoffman was inevitable.

This is where Newt Gingrich really exposed his cluelessness, parroting misleading talking-points provided by the equally clueless Republican "insiders" who handpicked Scozzafava and wasted hundreds of thousands of RNC/NRCC dollars on her doomed campaign.

Like a lot of old, successful guys, Gingrich has evidently gotten into the habit of getting advice from two categories of people:

• Old friends, like Newt's buddy Tom Reynolds, the upstate New York Republican kingpin whose involvement in the Scozzafava pick was revealed this week by Dan Riehl. It's easy to picture Gingrich on the phone listening to Reynolds justify his own choice of Dede. Newt knows Tom from back in the day, trusts his old buddy's judgment and fails to realize that, alas, Tom's lost the magic touch. (Assuming, that is, that Reynolds actually ever had the magic touch, but that's a tangent I don't want to explore at 4 a.m.)
• Hired sycophants. Here's the real problem with a guy like Newt. When you get that big, it's hard to find employees who'll call bulls*** on you. Newt's the former Speaker of the House and still, a decade after leaving Congress, one of the most important people in the Republican Party. I don't know any of Gingrich's personnel, but I know plenty of Very Important People in Washington who are surrounded by staffers whose obsequious fawning would bring a blush of shame to the cheeks of a eunuch in the court of an ancient Persian sultan.

Like so much of what's wrong with the Beltway GOP, then, Gingrich's botched call on NY23 is as much a matter of organizational dynamics as anything else. And you can be sure that none of Gingrich's staffers will send Newt a link to this blog post. The cocoon of obsequious second-rate yes-men around a Big Shot ensures that the one criticism the Big Shot never hears is, "Hey, boss, you've got too many obsequious second-rate yes-men on the payroll."

Don't get me wrong. I'm not being judgmental. If I ever get to be such a Big Shot that publishers are offering me fat contracts just to put my name on a book cover -- Seven Keys to a Conservative Colon: The High-Fiber Path to Renewing America and Restoring Digestive Health, by Newt and Calista Gingrich -- I'll probably hire an army of sycophantic staffers to tell me I'm always right.

But it's not just the hired sycophants. Gingrich is also listening to the wrong bunch of old friends. Newt knows David Keene at ACU, who could have set him straight about the situation in NY23, and surely Newt's shared a few TV studio green rooms with Michael Barone and John Fund, either of whom could have clued him in.

Instead, Gingrich was all over Fox News, blabbering second-hand disinformation that directly contradicted the facts Team Hoffman kept hammering home: Dede was a liberal and a mismatch for the conservative 23rd District; she had practically zero grassroots support among area Republicans; she had a disastrously liberal voting record in the New York state assembly; she had only gotten the nomination because of an insider backroom deal; and, most importantly, she couldn't win.

By trying to depict Hoffman as a "spoiler," Gingrich was 180 degrees out of phase with the truth: Scozzafava is actually the "spoiler" in this race. If you find anybody willing to bet money that Dede will break 20% on Tuesday, take that bet. She could finish as low as 15%, but the one thing I can guarantee she won't do is win.

Maybe Gingrich backed Scozzafava because she reminds him of his favorite subject: Dede is history.

Well, what the heck was that long digression into punditry all about? Just more gibberish to chase aways snoopy liberals, you see. Stretch it out for a few paragraphs so the superficial surfers will say, "No news here," and click away. Then it's safe to divulge the real stuff that only hard-core readers will stick around long enough to find:

• Former Gov. George Pataki will campaign with Doug Hoffman today in NY23. Last I heard -- and the plans were still being arranged late Friday -- Pataki and Hoffman will do some morning photo ops down around Syracuse and then have an afternoon event in Plattsburgh. I'm guessing probably they'll also do something in Watertown and maybe do a visit to Saranac Lake, but we'll see.
• Scott O'Grady, the hero pilot shot down over Bosnia, will be coming to the district to appear with Hoffman at local VFW and American Legion events.
• John Rich of the country-rock duo Big And Rich will have an event Monday in Watertown for Hoffman.
• With all that big Democratic money to throw around, Bill Owens has no shortage of ground troops in the district. He had a half-dozen of them (who looked like graying refugees from Woodstock nation) doing a honk-and-wave on State Route 3 near the Lowe's hardware store in Plattsburgh. Where are the brigades of young conservative hottie volunteers to counter these lefty geezer squads?
• Naftali Bendavid's doing the "Republicans divided" thing at the Wall Street Journal. "Republicans divided" is every liberal's favorite headline. The MSM always blame the Right-Wing Extremist Fringe Kook Brigades for any division in the GOP. The truth, however, is that the RINOs are the real problem.
• Ali Akbar (yes, that's his real name) got some razzing Friday after Allahpundit linked his exclusive, but didn't name him, instead describing him only as "bloggers in the area." Feel the love!

What else? Oh, any young conservatives who want to volunteer for the Hoffman campaign should call the Plattsburgh office and ask for Yates. He was a linebacker in high school and was a paratrooper in the 82nd Airborne. [Joke removed at request of Yates: "Dude, I thought it was funny, until I found out you were serious."]

Speaking of singles, Monique Stewart, meet Steve Foley of Minority Report, a blogger after your own heart. (Hey, the Rev. Moon doesn't have a monopoly on this sight-unseen matchmaking stuff, y'know.)

The reason I'm awake at this ungodly hour? On the way back from Plattsburgh, Ali and I stopped by The Waterhole on Main Street in Saranac Lake, where they've got a pool table and a jukebox full of classic rock tunes, plus enough Johnny Cash to keep Ali happy (he's from Texas and a total fiend for Johnny Cash). We got back to the house here in Lake Placid about 6:30 p.m. Everybody ate pizza and I fell asleep on the sofa.

Then, about 11 p.m., I was awakened by Yates knocking on the window. He was locked out. He wanted to see if anyone was up for going to have beers, but everybody was asleep, so Yates booked it back to Plattsburgh. After about an hour, I still wasn't able to get back to sleep and so . . .

Well, birds gotta fly, fish gotta swim, and bloggers gotta blog. Even if they can't poach WiFi. But it's nearly dawn now, and soon they'll be cranking up that free continental breakfast. I've spent so much time here in the lobby, now the manager smiles and waves when he walks past. I am the King, baby.

NY23: Live from Plattsbugh!

Now poaching WiFi (and drinking free coffee) in the lobby of a hotel to be named later. The big news out of last night's WSYR-TV debate? Doug didn't lose.

With the kind of momentum his campaign has -- cf., the 18-point swing vs. Scozzafava in the DKos/Research 2000 poll -- the key for Hoffman in the debate could be summed up in three words: "Don't screw up." And he didn't.

I see that Jimmie blogged the Pataki endorsement for Hoffman (also at NTCNews.) As Michelle Malkin would say, the "snort-worthy" news of the day is that Markos Moulitsas has unendorsed RINO Dede Scozzafava.

Reports that the NRCC is pulling its resources out of the Scozzafava campaign have been variously confirmed and denied, depending on who you ask. But let's face it, Dede is obviously . . .

Put it this way: Today at breakfast in Lake Placid, I asked the waitress for eggs and corned beef hash with a side order of Dede, and the waitress asked, "White Dede or whole wheat Dede?"

Whole wheat, please. At my age, I need the fiber.

How big has the Hoffman campaign gotten? Today at Duke's Diner here in Plattsburgh, Ali from 73Wire was having lunch with the correspondent for the Times of London. That's London, England.

Meanwhile, I'm preparing a report for The American Spectator.

Update (Smitty): Daily Pundit says "Drop out, Dede, drop out!"

And she can tell Newt to scoot, to boot.

EXPECT MORE UPDATES . . .

HOFFMANIA: CATCH IT!

Our complete coverage of the NY23 special election

NY23: Live from Watertown, N.Y.

Actually, there's not much happening here. I'm poaching the lobby computer at the Best Western Carriage House Inn where I am not a guest. But Gina the night clerk doesn't know that. She just brought me a fresh cup of coffee. (Shame? We don't need no stinkin' shame!)

That big poll news? Just got off the phone with Pat Austin, who's blogging NY23:

Allahpundit notes the poll with the reminder that this isn't actually a Daily Kos poll - they just paid for it. The pollster, Research 2000 is reliable. In addition, he says "Remember too that the campaigns have been whispering for the past week that internal polls show a two-man race now with Scozzafava fading. Consider this confirmation."

Oh, ye of little faith! We're linked at American Power and, meanwhile, Jimmie's got the complete NY23 roundup at NTC News.

More news at Memeorandum. I'd love to stay and blog more, but Gina (an undecided voter who supported Hillary in the '08 primaries) might start getting suspicious and my buddy Ali and the Campaign Trail crew expect me in Lake Placid before dawn.