Hard-hit by the global crisis, the INDONESIA value of EXPORT in 2012 could be down 20%

Weakening global economic conditions worsened in Europe and the United States (U.S.), making the Ministry of Commerce (Ministry of Trade) must prepare a worst case scenario that the exports of 2012 will go down.

Director General of Foreign Trade Ministry of Trade, Deddy Saleh, said that, if the debt crisis in Europe continues to drag on and the budget deficit in the U.S. is still a constraint weakening demand from Indonesia, the performance of the export value in 2012 could drop up to 20%.

Ministry of Trade predict the realization of the value of exports in 2011 could reach U.S. $ 200 billion. That means, the value of exports in the next year could be only about U.S. $ 160 billion. "But the optimistic predictions of our exports in 2012 will only drop 10% or at least stagnate it is good," said Deddy.

The manufacturing sector is predicted to be the sectors hardest hit by the global crisis in the next year. Meanwhile, exports of primary commodities such as crude palm oil (CPO) can still continue. Because Europe must inevitably take the CPO so that they must continue to import.

Impact of world economic slowdown on the Indonesia export performance is starting to look real. For instance, the total export value in October 2011 decreased 4.2% to U.S. $ 16.8 billion than the previous month. However,realization of export from January to October 2011 is still up 34.9% over the same period in 2010.

Meanwhile, Indonesia's exports to the EU in October 2011 rose 6.2% compared to September 2011. And Indonesia's exports for the same period to the United States is still growing 17.2%.

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Worsening debt crisis, INDONESIA's EXPORTS to Europe will stagnate

Ministry of Industry worrying the European Union financial problems will affect the Indonesia export to Europe. Because, Greece's debt problems spread to other countries in Europe which has the potential to expand the region's financial crisis.

"For me Europe is not too optimistic. Especially if you look at the debt structure of large countries," said Director General of International Cooperation Ministry of Industry Industry, Agus Tjahayana.

According to him, Greece's debt problems will be difficult to prolonged unresolved because the three countries, namely Germany, France, and Britain is expected to help bail out Greece's debt was in trouble. In fact, Germany was difficult to expand its export market as China slammed aggression. "The possibility of its condition deteriorated," he said.

In fact, Indonesia's exports to the EU during the period 2007-2010 recorded an average increase of 9%. That number exceeds the import of industrial products from Europe which reached 8%. In 2010 Indonesia's trade balance with the EU surplus of U.S. $ 4.5 billion.

The amount was donated processed coconut or palm oil with a market share of 20%, textiles and textile products 14.5%, electronics 10.5%, 10.5% of processed rubber, and footwear or shoes 8%.

In fact, certain products have increased sharply as exports of other chemical products rose 147%, 59.4% of other commodities, cigarettes rose by 28.7%, and sports equipment 26.5%.

Unfortunately, the market penetration of industrial products to the EU is still relatively low with an average of about 0.5%. It is actually according to Agus could be an opportunity to expand market share of Indonesian exports. However, the region's financial condition would likely delay the planned expansion of Indonesia's exports.

"It is possible that down then the condition will remain stagnant because Europe needs these commodities," he said.

As with the financial problems the United States. According to Agus, the condition of the country was not too worried because the position of United States economic growth which is growing despite the crisis.

Country's internal political problems that make the financial problems the United States as unresolved. However, he believes, the country will find the solution of the problem.

As a result, most likely the United States - Indonesia trade will be stagnant for some time. Even if rising then the condition is a result of the appreciation of the yuan currency, the rupiah (IDR), Singapore dollar, ringgit, baht and peso. "The effect would be all for all countries for the same commodity," he said.

Indonesia Trade Minister Marie Elka Pangestu also ever mentioned her concern at the condition of the European Union's financial problems. "Compared to the United States, we are more worried about conditions in Europe," she said.

To maintain the level of Indonesia exports due to the decline in market share in both areas, Marie expressed, should be done by enhancing competitiveness, increasing diversification of export markets, and minimize the high cost.

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Indonesian EXPORT of 2010 reached a NEW Record

Head of Indonesia Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Rusman Heriawan said Indonesia's total exports from January to December 2010 to carve new record in the history of Indonesian exports, which amounted to US$ 157.73 billion.

"A total export from January to December 2010 is US$ 157.73 billion, the latest record for export performance during the history of Indonesian exports," he said in a news conference in his office, Jakarta, Tuesday (01/02/2011). The figure for December 2010 was a highest record export monthly of US$ 16.8 billion.

According BPS data, the rate of export performance throughout 2010 was a growth of 35.38 per cent from the same period in 2009 is US$ 116.51 billion.

Rusman Heriawan said oil exports during January - December 2010 recorded around US$ 129, 68 billion. The largest export commodity is mineral fuels, such as coal US$ 18, 73 billion as well as fat and vegetable oil or palm oil reached US$ 16.29 billion.

BPS noted Indonesia's largest exports are to Japan of US$ 16.5 billion. While export to China around US$ 14.07 billion and the United States amounted to US$ 13.3 billion.

"The contribution of the largest exports are still held by conventional market except China. As for Japan US$ 16.5 billion, China US$ 14.07 billion and United States US$ 13.3 billion. The market share for those three country is 33.85 percent of the country total exports. Meanwhile, exports to the European Union is US$ 17.07 billion, "he explained.

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Indonesian CPO Exports value reached US$ 16.4 Billion in 2010

Throughout 2010, export value of Indonesia crude palm oil and palm oil derivative products reached US$ 16.4 billion, up 50% over 2009, which amounted to US$ 10 billion. This increase was due to the high international price of CPO. This was conveyed by the Executive Director of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (Gapki), Fadhil Hasan.

"In the first quarter, CPO export value of U.S. $ 2.66 billion was subsequently increased to US$ 3.04 billion in the second quarter. Next in the third quarter, the export value of US$ 4.46 billion, which jumped more sharply to around US$ 6.32 billion in the fourth quarter, "said Fadhil.

Based on Gapki’s data, during January-December 2010 Indonesia's CPO export volume rose slightly by 127,498 tones or be 15,656,349 tons, compared to the previous year which amounted to 15,528,851 tons.

National CPO export growth driven increase in the number of purchases by the three major consumer namely India, China, and the European Union. "In 2010, total exports of CPO and its derivatives to India as much as 5,793,077 tons, which increased from 2009 amounted to 5,630,199 tons," said Fadhil.

India to import more palm oil up to 4,498,365 tons, followed by as much as 861,944 tonnes of RBD Olein, Crude Olein totaled 135,002 tons, Palm Fatty Acid Distillate (PFAD) amounted to 95,631 tonnes, RBD Palm Oil (PO) amounted to 63,012 tons, 74,120 tons of RBD Stearin and amounted to 11,000 tonnes of Crude Stearin.

Meanwhile, European Union countries to increase the amount of the purchase of CPO and its derivatives from Indonesia amounted to 3,728,677 tons. Same with India, the European Union buying more palm oil as much as 2,537,431 tons, 426,673 tons of RBD Stearin, RBD PO totaled 314,364 tons, amounting to 293,437 tons of RBD Olein, PFAD totaled 148,069 tons, Crude Olein as much as 8,000 tons and 700 tons of Crude Stearin.

"China is importing crude palm oil and its derivatives from Indonesia amounted to 2,410,337 tons, in which the largest import of RBD Olein products amounted to 1,491,948 tons. Furthermore, amounting to 632,312 tons of RBD Stearin, crude palm oil amounted to 231,617 tons, PFAD reached 46,458 tons, and as many as RBD PO 8,000 tons, "said Fadhil.

Then, Bangladesh buying palm oil and derived products from Indonesia amounted to 629,529 tons, USA import 172,167 tons of CPO and its derivatives from Indonesia.

While Pakistan imported 87,379 tons of CPO and its derivatives are down dramatically from last year, because of delays in completion of Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) Indonesia-Pakistan. There is also, exports of Indonesian palm oil and derived products to other countries amounted to 2,889,182 tons.

For information, the total exports of 15.6 million tons was still dominated exports of Crude Palm Oil (CPO), which reached 8,779,940 tons (56.2%) and the remaining derivative products amounted to 6,876,405 tons (43.8%).

"Based on these data, Gapki noted that world demand is still focused on crude palm oil products rather than the derivatives. This can be seen from India and the EU demand that the CPO world's largest market," said Fadhil.

From the export volumes of derivative products, the amount of exports are more RBD Olein form which amounted to 3,565,096 tons (51.8%), followed by RBD Stearin totaled 1,435,145 tons (20.8%), RBD Palm Oil, amounted to 884,726 tons (12 , 8%), Crude Olein as much as 587,778 tons (8.5%), amounting to 382,459 tons PFAD (5.5%) and amounted to 21,201 tons of crude stearin (0.6%).

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As of September, Indonesia's export value rose 38.3%

Indonesia's export performance during the first nine months this year rose 38.3% to USD 110.8 billion over the same period last year. In fact, as of September performance was also better before the global crisis sweeping the world in 2008 ago, which just posted an increase of 12.3%. This achievement was launched by the Board of Research and Development, Ministry of Trade (Kemdag) which released today, Thursday (25/11).

The Research and Development of Ministry of Trade also quoted Trade Watch from the World Bank that assesses Indonesia's exports in the second quarter, including three best of the 60 countries. This report shows, in the second quarter of this year, only three countries that can improve the performance of exports exceeded the export performance before the global crisis; namely China, Hong Kong and Indonesia.

China recorded can increase its export value up 14.7% while Indonesia was 4.9% compared to the value of exports during the same period in 2008. Meanwhile, Hong Kong recorded the highest increase in export value far beyond China and Indonesia, which amounted to 20.8%.

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Indonesian woodworking exports are decreasing

Indonesian woodworking exports are decreasing sharply. It because the economic conditions in Europe and the USA which has been the main export market has not recovered yet.

The Indonesian Sawmill & Woodworking Association (ISWA) estimates, woodworking export volume this year only 1.2 million cubic meters. The export volume was down 14.2 percent compared to last year's export volume which reached 1.4 million cubic meters.

Similarly, plywood, even though the volume down, value of exports, probably, will not sag away from last year that reached USD 957 million. The trigger is woodworking prices also increased slightly, from USD 665 per cubic meter in 2009 to USD 675 per cubic meter. "So, we estimate, the value of exports same as of 2009," said Soewarni, Chairman of the ISWA.

Soewarni explained, since the financial crisis plagued the USA in September 2008, woodworking wood consumption in the USA continued to decline. It happened because a lot of housing development projects stalled. Similar conditions also experienced a number of other export destination countries, like China, Japan, Australia, and Germany. "Since the crisis, it is difficult for us to expect an increase in export of woodworking, especially in terms of volume," said Soewarni.

Weakening demand for Indonesian woodworking in the world market, bring bad impact to exporters. According Soewarni, many exporters of woodworking is now out of business. "Of the 700 exporters are now only just over 600 exporters," he said.

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Indonesia’s Exports (Jan-Sep 2010) Up 38 Percent

Indonesia Central Statistic Agency (BPS) expressed, total value of Indonesia's exports from January to September reached USD 110.81 billion. This amount increased by 38.27 percent over the same period last year.

"Hopefully we will record a new performance for annual export, at least approach USD 150 billion. If our export per month around USD 12 billion, it could approach even be higher," said Head of the BPS, Rusman Heriawan in a press conference held at the office BPS, Jakarta, Monday (01/11/2010).

Although the export value from January to September 2010 increased compared to last year period, exports value in September 2010 dropped compared with August 2010. According to Rusman, exports of September reached USD 12.08 billion, down 12.02 percent compared to August. "The decline in non-oil -13.66 percent. Exports of non oil reached USD 10.13 billion, and USD 1.95 billion for oil and gas," he said.

The reduced value of exports in September, according to Rusman due to Eid al-Fitr which falls in September. Import-export activity before and after Lebaran is totally decreasing. "Labor-workers who went home a lot so many activities that are pending. Hopefully October there was an increase export and import of missed work," he said.

Besides the Indonesia’s export up 38 per cent, the import value also increase by 11.92 percent in September compared to last year. Imports of September reached USD 9.53 billion.

Indonesian Exports increase 9.76 per cent

The Indonesian exports increase 9.76 per cent in August 2010 with value reached US$ 13.71 billion, compare to the exports in July 2010. If compared to exports on August 2009 is increasing of 29.99 percent.

Non-oil/non-gas exports on August 2010 has reached US$ 11.77 billion, rose 10.94 percent compared to July 2010, whereas compared to August 2009 exports increased by 32.35 percent.

The cumulative value of Indonesian exports from January to August 2010 reached US$ 98.71 billion, an increase 40.42 percent over the same period in 2009, while non-oil exports reach US$ 81.73 billion, an increase of 36.25 percent.
The largest increasing of non-oil exports in August 2010 is coming from animal fats & oils / vegetable at US$ 1.1 billion, while the largest decline occurred in the ore, scale, and ash for metals at US$ 80.0 million.

Non-oil exports to Japan in August 2010 is the largest number of US$ 1.40 billion, followed by China US$ 1.24 billion and the United States US$ 1.14 billion, with the contribution of all three reached 32.17 percent. While exports to the European Union (27 countries) around US$ 1.62 billion.

By sector, industrial product exports from January-August 2010 rose by 34.66 percent compared to same period of 2009, as well as exports of agricultural products rose 15.84 percent and exports other mining products rose 47.35 percent.

Source: Indonesia Central Statistics Agency (BPS) / picture:google.com

Garuda Indonesia cargo capacity up to 7 tons

Indonesia airline, Garuda Indonesia is preparing cargo capacity up to 7 tons each time flying for the benefit of various fresh fishery exports commodities from North Sulawesi. "Exports that can be served by Garuda Indonesia is mainly to Japan, which became one of the country potential buyer of fishery products from North Sulawesi," said Head of the Main Branch of Garuda Indonesia Manado, Shidiki Iribian.

Shidiki said exports could be served by Garuda Indonesia mainly fresh commodities like fresh tuna and other fisheries, as market demand. "Fresh fishery commodities require fast delivery, and Garuda Indonesia is able to ensure delivery time approximately 10 hours from Sam Ratulangi Airport, Manado to Japan," said Shidiki. The delivery time is still pretty long, because the flight had to go through Bali's Ngurah Rai Airport first and then sent to buyers in Japan.

Possible additional cargo capacity for air freight will be reviewed to take account also of the passengers’ luggage. "If this fishery commodity export is increasing, Garuda Indonesia will find a way out so that delivery to overseas can be done," said Shidiki.

Head of Foreign Trade, North Sulawesi, Hanny Wajong, said North Sulawesi needs additional export capacity by using air transport because of the tendency of increasing the performance of fishery products in recent years. "Some foreign countries have inquiry of fresh fishery products. Therefore, in this case air transport by Garuda Indonesia, is very important," said Hanny.