S&P Futures Analysis

The market has held up well the past week or so and my wave count remains intact.  It looks like a fourth wave consolidation is occurring and a shot higher will ensue shortly.  I don't see any big action occurring until the New Year, but a steady float higher should occur up until then.

The US Dollar appears overbought, along with all the Japanese yen pairs, so short term selling of the USD and buying of JPY might be wise when a technical setup coincides with those directions.  I would remain nimble and flexible with the trades and view them as short term corrective opportunities as they are Fed related moves leading up to this point.  Long term, they should continue in their current directions, but short term they are due for a correction.

Here is a snapshot that drills down the wave count a little more from the daily chart.  This 4 hour chart shows a strong rally that should continue to the 2400-2450 area before any meaningful correction.  There are multiple alternate counts that also conclude at the 2400 level as well, so that level appears be a good place to look for a solid correction.

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S&P Analysis

The S&P's are moving as projected a few weeks ago.  The presidential election launching pad has pushed this rally higher and higher and should continue to do so over the coming several weeks.  As you can see from the wave count, a breakout from a multi-month consolidation period has ended and the market is shooting higher, and has a ways to go.  Also, seasonal forces, and a pro-stock market Fed, should help the market float higher.

On the S&P futures daily chart of the day contract you'll note in the chart above that the market is well overbought.  This is determined by the huge separation of price relative to a key moving average in combination with the MIFT RSI being overbought.  In other words, price has moved way to fast than it historically has done so before.  This is a sign of a strong rally, but it also means that either some consolidation, or a modest decline is in order to allow the moving average to catch up to price.  Any meaningful pullback I would simply view as a buying opportunity at this juncture anyway.

In addition, most individual sectors are also significantly overbought, a few are flat, and only Gold Miners are oversold.  So the market is a bit stretched, but ultimately it will move higher in the longer term, so any pullbacks I would see as opportunities to buy.

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Stock Market Analysis

The stock market has been quite a mess the past year or so with with choppy sideways-to-up price action that it has had me on the sidelines for the most part.  I have been trying to trade individual stocks through options trades, and focusing on forex as a result.  The one thing notable that has occurred recently is the price action surrounding the US presidential election.  On election day, the overnight session so a huge drop in the markets when Donald Trump appeared to be the victor.  But when the US traders woke up the next day, they quickly bought up the oversold market and carried it to new highs from the previous trading day.  This was also done on huge volume of course.  So, market players are telling us that although there was initial fear of a Trump victory based on potential instability in the US, once the panic subsided market players saw the Trump win good for the economy and stock market.  Whether that is true and will play out, we don't know obviously.  But the market is pricing in positive economics and earnings for at least 6 months out.

So we have a huge reversal higher on a giant volume spike from back earlier this month.  The low is 2028.50 for that day.  To me, that is a key level for the bulls.  For the long term, as long as price remains above this level, the market is overall bullish 6 months out from the day you're in.  There will be pullbacks along the way, but long term investors would be wise to go long the markets long as that level remains intact.

There are several signs of a short term pullback in stocks across the board, as well in Japanese yen pairs in forex, so I think if buyers are patient they can wait for that pullback to get long some stocks that may be to pricey right now.  I am personally getting short the USDJPY and GBPJPY in forex.


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Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short SYMC & Long SRCL

Symantec (SYMC) has been on a tear for a long time, but after Minor wave 3, we see some choppy and weak rising off the wave ((a)) low.  This is a topping structure and indicative of a ((b)) wave.  Once complete, a sharp wave ((c)) down should take place, pulling prices to the $22.60 - $24.00 range to complete Minor wave 4.  So I'm hitting it short with a put spread that will cover earnings postings early November:

Buy SYMC Nov 18  23/26 put spread at $1.19
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On flipside, Stericycle Inc (SRCL) appears to have completed an Intermediate A-B-C correction to the downside.  After a sharp gap lower, the stock has trickled down to new lows but not in a convincing fashion.  Downside momentum appears to have become exhausted and a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern may be forming.  A long signal triggered on my custom indicators so I'm hitting it long here with a call spread to target a confluence of Fibonacci retracement levels of wave (C) and the entire A-B-C move at the $95 area.  Here is the trade:

Buy SRCL Nov 18  75/90 call spread at $6.24

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S&P Futures Wave Count

The stock market and forex spot have been quite signal free ans opporunity free for about a month.  But with the US presidential election heating hp, and traders back their desks after summer break, I'm expecting things to pickup.

The S&P appears to be in the early stages of a manor bull run, although only 3 waves up have printed so far, so the bull run is far from confirmed.  In the short term, look for (c) of ((2)) to pull price down to around the 2100 level. Price action around that level should give us a clue of what is next.

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Elliott Wave Options Signals - Heavy Short on Small Caps

The TZA is an ETF that triple shorts small cap stocks.  So, needless to say, it's a wild security.  As a result, I'm playing this small, but can't resist the opportunity because if I'm right, it can easily result in a 100% - 300% profit on a call option spread.

The TZA has been oversold for a while and has spiked higher at the beginning of the year, only to fall back down fairly quickly as well.  However, the choppy and slow grind lower the past two months is indicative of a waning downtrend, and so a sharp reversal is on the horizon.  Waiting for a buy signal is still key, and I got one a few days ago with a close above the signal line.

Due to what the TZA consists of, and it's lack of liquidity, it's not exactly the best medium to count waves.  It's probably better to analyze the Russell (@TF).  But looking at the TZA on the hourly time frame, you can see a decent wave count suggesting a long wave ((v)) in place.  Most likely there will be a shot lower to complete wave ((v)), but that should quickly be met by a reversal higher.  I am targeting the $32 area just above the previous 4th wave.  The setup and risk/reward ratio is well worth giving this wild security a shot on the long side (so short small caps):

Buy TZA Oct 14  27.5/32 Call Spread at $0.98


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Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closed GBPJPY Long at 528 Pip Profit

The stock market is just a mess of low volatility and general apathy.  I do not want to read too much into the waves or price action with this kind of movement.  The summertime lull of trading officially ends after Labor Day so I expect some solid moves to reprice the market to appropriate levels in the days/weeks following Labor Day.  So some good moves should occur as September gets underway.  Until then, I am focusing on my options trades and the forex trades I detail below.

The British pound took off just like I projected, and the GBPJPY and GBPNZD were nice mediums to use to take advantage of this rise.  I entered the GBPJPY at 131.72, and it is sitting at 137.00 right now, and since I'm still long the GBPNZD I want to close the GBPJPY now to lock in profits.  The GBPJPY has outperformed the GBPNZD so far, and it is at the 23% Fibonacci retracement level, so it's possible it will take a pause here and let the GBPNZD catch up a bit.  Here is the result:

GBPJPY entry at 131.72 and close at 137.00 for 528 pip profit.

Speaking of the GBPNZD.... the rally is a complete mess, but is trending upward and still has room to move.  Fibonacci targets of resistance are at 1.83940 and 1.8549, although I still see hitting the 1.8600 - 1.8700 range before considering a top.  I entered long on this trade at 1.8061 and it is currently at 1.8216 so I'm at a respectable 155 pip profit, but don't want this to turn into a losing trade, especially after a nice profit on the GBPJPY.  So I'm moving my stop loss here to breakeven:

GBPNZD entry at 1.8061, moving a stop to breakeven at 1.8061

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PREVIOUS POST WITH ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP

The British pound has been getting pounded since Brexit but a bottom has been formed and a sharp rally is near. I have two confirmed buy signals on the daily charts, so a big trade is in order. The pairs with confirmed buy signals are the GBPJPY and the GBPNZD.

GBPJPY entry at 131.72 with profit target of 139.00
GBPNZD entry at 1.8061 with profit target of 1.8800

I only have catastrophic stop losses in for both as I want it to have room to run for the next few days or weeks without constantly getting stopped out from over-trading and overthinking the move higher.


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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Stock Signals - Shorting UFPI

Universal Forest Products Inc. has had a hell of a run but is now stalling in a 4th wave correction. The test of the recent highs does not deter me, and I feel actually presents a nice shorting opportunity. Wave (4) is unfolding in a double combination correct with a target of $97, although I will probably get out closer to $100.  Here is the trade:

Buy UFPI Oct 21  110/95 put spread at $4.97


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British Pound Set to Soar

The British pound has been getting pounded since Brexit but a bottom has been formed and a sharp rally is near. I have two confirmed buy signals on the daily charts, so a big trade is in order. The pairs with confirmed buy signals are the GBPJPY and the GBPNZD.

GBPJPY entry at 131.72 with profit target of 139.00
GBPNZD entry at 1.8061 with profit target of 1.8800

I only have catastrophic stop losses in for both as I want it to have room to run for the next few days or weeks without constantly getting stopped out from over-trading and overthinking the move higher.


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Elliott Wave S&P Futures

The market has followed my projected path (red lines more or less).  I don't think a top will occur until 2200 is hit. It's summer time and super slow so expect the market to float around for a few more weeks.  I do have confirmed short signals in the Nasdaq 100, Dow and S&P cash indexes on the 130 minute charts. But I don't think a decline will start until 2200 is tested. in the S&P futures.  I'll be back when something happens that matters.

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Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed NSP at 51% Profit

NSP dropped 8% this morning after posting earnings so I closed my short position at a nice profit. NSP ended up dropping over 14% later in the trading day so in hindsight, my closure of this put spread was premature.  However, my trading strategy has rules in place for taking profits, and my profit target was hit at 8% drop level this morning, so I took profits then.  This profit level I use tends to act as a solid bounce point, sometimes permanent, so over the long run it will make more money to use it.  Here is the trade summary:

Sold to close NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $6.25 
Bought at $4.13
Profit of $2.12, +51%

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ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP...

Insperity Inc. (NSP) has been on a huge monster rally the past several weeks but it has become quite choppy and is starting to roll over to the downside.  Today's sharp pop is just an exhaustion rally with the tired and tapped out bulls throwing everything they have at it today for one final push.  The next move of consequence should be to the downside.  I show a large Intermediate "flat correction" unfolding with today's rally part of wave (B) which should soon give way to a strong impulsive decline for wave (C) towards Fibonacci support at the $66.72 level (38% Fibo), which is also near the previous Minor wave 4, another typical draw for larger degree corrections.  So I went short with a put spread.  Here is the trade:

Buy to open NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $4.13

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Elliott Wave Options Signals - Closed NSP This Morning

NSP dropped 8% this morning after posting earnings so I closed my short position at a nice profit.  Trade details to come shortly...

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ORIGINAL TRADE SETUP...

Insperity Inc. (NSP) has been on a huge monster rally the past several weeks but it has become quite choppy and is starting to roll over to the downside.  Today's sharp pop is just an exhaustion rally with the tired and tapped out bulls throwing everything they have at it today for one final push.  The next move of consequence should be to the downside.  I show a large Intermediate "flat correction" unfolding with today's rally part of wave (B) which should soon give way to a strong impulsive decline for wave (C) towards Fibonacci support at the $66.72 level (38% Fibo), which is also near the previous Minor wave 4, another typical draw for larger degree corrections.  So I went short with a put spread.  Here is the trade:

Buy to open NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $4.13

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave S&P Futures Signals

In my last post I projected a selloff the next day. The next day resulted in 8 S&P futures points being sold off. That is not nearly what I had expected.  However, the decline did not alleviate any of the bearish signals in place, on multiple time frames, and multiple different markets. And today the sell signals have spread to the S&P and Dow cash indexes on the 130 minute charts as you can see you above.

My above wave count may be a bit aggressive. I think the market will go sideways and then rally somewhere surrounding the Fed announcement. That should mark the end of a five wave EWP rally.  

There are a lot of fibonacci levels on the above chart, but the important price levels are 2200 – 2207 which should cap the rally. Then I see the market declining to 2167 before potentially finding a bottom.

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Intermarket Divergence Signals Selloff Tuesday

Just a quick note to add to my bearish signals in place.  The market is taking longer than usual to decline after confirming a signal, but at today's close there was a noticeable intermarket divergence between the S&P, Russel and S&P MidCap futures indexes as you can see from the charts above.  The S&P made a new high while the TF and EMD failed to even come close to doing so and have declined.  Breaking below the previous swing low if the Globex session would help confirm a top is in and that the market is poised for a selloff Tuesday.

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Stock Market Analysis - More Sell Signals Confirmed

The VIX has not also confirmed a sell signal on the 130min chart, signaling that the upcoming decline in the S&P will be much larger than 20 points. Now I am expecting a 35-40 point minimum decline from where the top is registered.  However, that is only a minimum decline level, it's just a starting point.  It has only printed three waves in on this rally so a strong decline to confirm that it was only a three wave rally could be a sign that something much bigger is happening to the downside.

The Nasdaq 100 is starting to get in on the fun too as it has now confirmed a bearish signal.  The S&P has yet to confirm a bearish signal on the index itself, however the VIX has confirmed bearish stock market moves on both the 30min and 130min charts.  So a stock market decline is near.


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Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closed Remaining GBPNZD Position at 165 pip Profit

The GBPNZD shot higher last night and hit my final target of 1.8300.  It has pulled back sharply in the London session, but could still continue higher from here.  My objectives have been met so I am out of the trade.  Here are the final results:

1/3 Long at 1.8135 and exited at 1.8300 for 165 pip profit
1/3 Long at 1.7982 and exited at 1.8125 for a 143 pip profit 
Normalized: 143 + 165 = 308 x 66.7% = 205 total pips 

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I'm leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

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POSTED JULY 11, 2016

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300

Stop loss 1.7690

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POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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POSTED July 6, 2016

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Closing Half.GBPNZD at 143 pip Profit

The GBPNZD is still popping nicely and the second 1/3 position is at a 143 pip profit so I closed that position and I'm leaving the other 1/3 position in to target 1.8300.

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POSTED JULY 11, 2016

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300

Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED JULY 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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POSTED July 6, 2016

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

POSTED July 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Adjusting Stop and Target GBPNZD

The GBPNZD appears to have finally gotten its legs and showing signs of life. This pair can easily shoot significantly higher towards the 1.8700 area, but my custom indicators show 1.8300 as a target level so I'll stick with that. Here is the modified exit parameters for the 2/3 long position:

Profit target 1.8300

Stop loss 1.7690

_____________________________

POSTED July 7, 2016

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

POSTED July 7, 2016

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

Please support the blog and like this post :-)Please support the blog and like this post :-)

PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

VIX Stock Sell Signal Confimed

Stocks got hit with some selling pressure at the open and the VIX spiked after already exhibiting oversold for a while (green paint bars in chart).  The VIX spike and solid close above the signal line confirms a stock market sell signal is in place.  Technically, it still has about 3 minutes before the bar closes and officially confirms the signal, but it's far enough off the signal line that I'm confident it will hold.

This is a 30min chart, so the pull back in stocks should be 20+ points.  If the market ignores the signal in the short term and continues higher, I'm sure larger time frame VIX stock market sell signals will confirm as well.  And I'll post them here as they hit.  Either way, get ready for a short term pullback of 20+ within the next 2 days.

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S&P Index Analysis

I just wanted to drop a quick note on something I'm seeing in the S&P cash index. You can see my custom indicators at the bottom which tracks signals in all of the S&P 500 stocks. The top indicator has a yellow histogram showing how many stocks are oversold minus stocks overbought, which stands at 173. Although this is a very high number, it can stay oversold for a long period of time. So next, I look at the bottom indicator which tells me how man stocks have CONFIRMED. a bearish reversal minus those with bullish reversals.  You can see that there are 157 more confirmed bearish stocks. This is an extremely high number and predicts a pullback in the S&P very soon, either later today or early next week. This is on a 5min chart so the decline may only be 10 points or so, but if bigger timeframes start showing me bearish confirmations then this could be predicting a much larger reversal is coming.

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Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Adding to GBPNZD Position

This is a wild pair and the recent decline and bottoming attempt is worth adding another 1/3 position long at market (1.7982).  Here is the original trade setup here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Futures - ES

On the daily chart, my projected forecast has played out as expected. And on the intraday charts, my sell signal for 20+ points also materialized. But now I have no signals or bias as the market is at a fork in the road at current levels. Staying under 2120 keeps a bearish outlook on the table, but a break above 2120 opens the door for Minor wave 3 to run significantly higher. I'm neutral until the market makes a decisive move from here.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Forex Signals - Building Long Position in GBPNZD

The pound has been pounded the past couple weeks as a result of Brexit but I have been watching buy signals and confirmations over the past week.  I exercised patience with these signals since I wanted the dust to settle a bit on the whole Brexit thing first before I try to get long a pound pair.  Wave structure shows a very mature Intermediate wave (3) unfolding.  You can see that Minor wave 3 contained the sharp selloff after the Brexit vote, and although it has continued lower the following week or so, it has done so in a choppy and weak manner.  This is indicative of a weakening trend, and a 5th wave nearing completion.  I also anticipate that because of this structure, when the pound reverses higher, it will be a very fast and sharp affair.

According to FXCM's sentiment index, the retail side of the trade is heavily long the pound in general.  So that does not support an attempt on my part to get long the GBPUSD.  Instead, I will look to the pound crosses with buy signals confirmed.  I see that in GBPCAD and GBPNZD.  Although retail sentiment is firmly bullish on the pound, it is extremely bearish on the NZDUSD.  As a nice contrarian indicator, this means the NZDUSD will likely continue higher.  So these two sentiment indications should cancel each other out on the cross GBPNZD.  So I can now just focus on my custom indicators and the confirmed buy signal which is in place right now.  I want to put in a 1/3 long position on a big trade.  I don't want a stop loss in place because I want the trade to work, but I will put in a catastrophic stop loss in at 1.7200 and will quickly tighten that significantly once the trade moves in my favor.  Here's the setup:

Long GBPNZD at market (currently 1.8135)

Profit target is 1.8900

Catastrophic stop loss (optional) 1.7200

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short NVDA

NVIDIA (NVDA) is in the middle of a major bull run that should last several months if not years.  However, the shorter term picture shows an Intermediate degree wave (1) ending, and a wave (2) in the works.  More importantly, and more desirable, is that a Minor wave C down is about to get underway.  C waves are third waves and so they are impulsive and very strong.  I expect this stock fall around the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $41.47 before looking for any meaningful bottom.  Here is my short trade:

Buy to open NVDA Aug  40/47 put spread for $2.09

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Option Signals - Short NSP

Insperity Inc. (NSP) has been on a huge monster rally the past several weeks but it has become quite choppy and is starting to roll over to the downside.  Today's sharp pop is just an exhaustion rally with the tired and tapped out bulls throwing everything they have at it today for one final push.  The next move of consequence should be to the downside.  I show a large Intermediate "flat correction" unfolding with today's rally part of wave (B) which should soon give way to a strong impulsive decline for wave (C) towards Fibonacci support at the $66.72 level (38% Fibo), which is also near the previous Minor wave 4, another typical draw for larger degree corrections.  So I went short with a put spread.  Here is the trade:

Buy to open NSP Aug 19  70/80 put spread at $4.13

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave S&P Futures and VIX Analysis

The 30min chart of the VIX has been triggering a buy signal for most of the week as you can see from the green paint bars in the chart.  However, the official buy signal was not triggered until today when price closed above the signal line.  This is a short signal for the S&P.  Since it's a 30min chart, it usually means at least a 20 point move that will occur within the next few days.  You can see how accurate and forward looking this indicator can be by looking at the VIX sell signal confirmed early this week which signaled the large rally we've been engaged in all week.  Now the VIX is signaling the stock market's rally is ending, or has ended, and will pullback 20+ points soon.

The wave count shows an impulsive rally that is incomplete.  Wave ((4)) is most likely unfolding which means it's possible some boring price action may be ahead of us the rest of the week. I do expect a quick new high for wave ((5)) eventually, and that will be followed by a sharp decline.  The VIX sell signal I mentioned above supports this.  Depending on structure and magnitude of that decline, it will help confirm my long term bullish count, or if perhaps something much more bearish is unfolding since the Brexit vote.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave S&P Futures

Although fundamentally and logically it does not seem accurate to think that the decline from last week is over, the wave count certainly suggests that it is.  There are signs both ways that build a logical case, so I don't want to get too into the weeds on where the market is going long term.  For the bullish case, the wave count, and current rally strength, support a long sustained bullish move.  On the other hand, I think it's unlikely that the S&P drop over 100 points in just a couple days and then bottom and shoot higher.  Usually tops and bottoms to big moves are a "process" that takes a while.  They tend to not be a quick "event".  Also, a "Flat Correction" is a sideways correction that is usually part of a 4th wave, not a wave 2.  2nd waves tend to be sharp and deep.  So although the count looks good, it's not really what I'd expect to see for a second wave.

So the longer term may be a bit fuzzy, but what is clear though, is that for the short term, the market is still quite strong and bullish.  There are not signs of the rally letting up.  So I will remain a bull until I see some weakness and signs of a reversal.

On a side note, I just wanted to point out how forward-looking my custom indicators really are.  Yesterday, you can see that my indicator registered over 170 stocks in the S&P with confirmed buy signals.  This was accompanied by choppy, and hard fought, price action sideways-to-down during that period.  Then, as the signals declined, which usually means the stocks have since bottomed, reversed, and have shot higher therefore alleviating the overbought condition and no more registering a signal, the stock market as a whole shot higher about 40 points.  I use this indicator, which is comprised of several custom indicators, to help make my stock selections as well.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave Options Signals - Short ULTA

ULTA confirmed a short signal on my custom indicators and has a completed 5 waves that should accompany such a signal.  Since wave (3) at Intermediate degree is over, a long 4th wave should now unfold.  It should make it to at least $220.22, even if it's just a triangle correction, but it could possibly continue lower to fill around $215.  Here is the trade I made near the close today:

Buy to open ULTA Aug 05  217.5/237.5 put vertical at $5.75

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Elliott Wave S&P Analysis

Well it was a killer day for me in the markets as I did not lose a single trade, both in futures and options trading.  I love this volatility, and it is unusual to get this in the summer.  Albeit, it took a major event in England to do it, it was still a pleasant surprise and I'm going to have a nice weekend with the profits.

The S&Ps dropped about 30 points from my post this morning and did not reach my projection of 2000 by the end of the day, which means the bears will be back in charge early next week.  Remember, the S&Ps were down 110 points in the Globex session and once the US session started, a tone of buying entered the market pushing the index up from about 75 points down, to around 45 points down.  So 30 S&P points were bought up in the early US session, and when you add the other 35 points bought up in the late Globex session, there was a ton of buying power used up early this morning.  So, how much more bulls are left?  And how many bulls still have enough buying power, and feel comfortable using that buying power, going into next week.  I will argue - not many.  So, expect lower levels early next week and watch the S&Ps drop to 2000, then to possibly 1980, and perhaps even lower than that.

You can check out my 4hr chart I posted from this morning to see the bigger picture, and then check out my chart above with a 10min chart and wave count to break down the analysis with greater detail.  You can see from this 10min chart wave count that the S&Ps have a lot of bearish potential.  But don't overthink it and try to get this decline narrowed down to a mathematical certainty.  Just note that the bottom line is that the market is very bearish right now, surprises will be to the downside, and the bulls have a lot of work to prove they are back in charge.

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PLEASE NOTE: THIS IS AN ELLIOTT WAVE BLOG EXPRESSING AN OPINION AND IN NO WAY GUARANTEES OR IMPLIES ANY PROFIT OR GAIN. TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK.