Fearless Polar Mayor's Race Prediction

I like to do predictions on big elections. That way you can judge if I know much of anything about politics and if this blog is worth reading. Without further delay, my mayor's race prediction Strickland- 39% I know of no example in Memphis political history where if given a viable white candidate, whites still voted for a black candidate. That trend continues. Whites vote overwhelmingly for Strickland. He also picks up a similar percentage of black vote as AC gets of the white vote. Collins- 29% Most black voters can’t stand AC. That's how Collins gets 29%. Simple as that. Nice movie trailer campaign ad. Williams- 8% AC- 22% Oh my, what can you say. The collapse of his support in 4 years is mind numbing. How you can go from 65% of vote to 22% without a video of him spiking puppies like Michael Vick or the FBI finding stacks of money in his freezer is a true feat. If you wrote a manual about how to succeed as mayor, it would be 1 line. "Do the exact opposite of everything AC has done between 2011 and 2015." AC has a unique ability to inflict maximum political damage on himself, whether it be when he does do something right or wrong. That’s what weakness and indecision does to a politician, getting the worst of both sides. Months ago, I told people AC would not win re-election for two reasons. He had a class problem with black voters and race problem with white voters. For the race problem, see what I wrote above about Strickland. For the class problem, what black constituency is better off now than 4 years ago. The Jack & Jill set. There are only like 100 of them. As the letter to the editor in CA pointed out, he has engaged in nepotism and rewarded those loyal to him. How about Deidre Malone’s nice PR $880,000 contract for MPD body cameras? Seriously, body cameras need an almost million dollar PR campaign. Pays to be AC’s campaign manager. This is just the scandal of this weekend. There have been so many, that this one barely gets noticed. Throw in all the creative class junk that high jacked the administration's thinking, along with endless incompetency, you have a political collapse that will haunt the black community for a generation. AC has been the perfect black politician for the Big Business community to use to destroy black political power, first at the county level and then at the municipal level. In AC's wake, is political disorganization, lack of resources, and apathy of black voters. When I spoke to folks months ago, they really couldn't wrap their head around the fact that AC's base were white voters and when they leave him for Strickland, there wouldn't be enough support by black voters to carry him to victory. The morning after election day will be interesting to see the city's reaction.

Memphis Black Misleadership Selling the Last Scraps of Black Political Power

Today I read an article in the Commercial Appeal about the EDGE Board trying to take over the Community Redevelopment Agency. I see this as one of the last stages in the collapse of black political power in Memphis. The big business leaders in Memphis are what I call FIRE-HD (Finance, Insurance, Real Estate plus Healthcare and Distribution). They have a disproportionate influence over EDGE. CRA has board members nominated by the City & County mayors and approved by the City Council & County Commission. It's big power is creating TIF's. Because its focus is more on community redevelopment it centers mostly on housing and real estate. Big projects were/are Uptown, Highland Row, and Heritage Trail. Robert Lipscomb had much more influence over what CRA worked on rather than what EDGE does. With Lipscomb sidelined, moving CRA under EDGE may be easier. This consolidation was put forward by Wharton several months ago and was put before a City Council committee by Wharton and Berlin Boyd this past Tuesday. Black political power has been receding for several years now. I wrote a post about black economic power being decimated via the foreclosure crisis(here) . Another factor is the passing of a generation of Booker T Washington/Lemoyne Owen College graduates. This group of leaders was headed by Herenton and Lipscomb. Many of the senior people in local city government came to power with Herenton. They were in place for 20 years. Lipscomb is the last of this generation. Because this cadre of people came from a common place, its power/authority was charismatic and personal. This generation didn't groom a following generation. When these folks passed, there wasn't a bench full of new black leaders experienced in running government and operating political organizations. Additionally, there isn't much of a black middle class left to draw leaders or financial resources available to help with political organizing. AC's donors are the big dogs influencing EDGE. They live on the poplar corridor. Here is an old post about it. (Most city council members campaigns are funded by donors in East Memphis or the county.) They wanted Lipscomb gone for a long time. Whether Lipscomb is guilty or innocent of the accusations brought against him, he did care a lot about improving housing conditions for poor people in Memphis. This map from HCD shows where resources were allocated.

If EDGE controls CRA and there isn't someone like Robert Lipscomb at HCD and MHA, do you think its budget and resources get allocated in a similar way? Who's interests will EDGE be serving? When Lipscomb pushed to get the public housing projects replaced with HOPE VI developments, many low income people were given housing vouchers. This is mostly known as Section 8 housing. Section 8 housing is administered in two halves. Vouchers for individual apartment units or houses came through MHA. Entire apartment complexes of voucher recipients are called site (place) based section 8. These complexes are administered by the Tennessee Housing Development Agency in Covington. Some examples of these complexes recently in the news are the Goodwill Village and Warren Apartments. When the public housing projects were leveled, the housing projects were privatized and these site based apartment complexes spread across the city. Inspections were rare and there was much suspicion of a corrupted inspection system. Additionally, most of these apartment complexes receive PILOTS. It is recently become widely understood that a great many of these apartment complexes are owned by slumlords, like Global Ministries Foundation. The owners of these site based apartment complexes have a pretty politically powerful lobby at federal, state and local levels. A strong EDGE with CRA under its control, not terribly focused on decent affordable housing programs, and a weakened HCD/MHA is in these slumlords interest. (No oversight and a possibly easier process to get future PILOTS/government funding.) I mentioned earlier Berlin Boyd putting forward the EDGE CRA consolidation effort on the city council committee. Boyd has received at least $3,000 in campaign contributions from 2 employees of the company hired by Global Ministries Foundation to manage their disgraceful apartment complexes.

Here is where black political power stands 2 days before voting starts. The current black mayor, as of 2 weeks ago, had 70% of the electorate opposing him and most likely a white candidate will win the mayor's race. There will be a white city and county mayor. There will not be a black county mayor for the next 20 years and possibly not a black city mayor for that long either. There is only 1 black major, countywide office holder, Cheyenne Johnson. The congressman representing most of Memphis is white. The interim heads of MHA and HCD are white. EDGE wants to take over CRA and shift priorities and resources from predominantly low income black people. Memphis is 65% black but the city council can't get rid of Super Districts that give disproportional representation to East Memphis whites, and a city council member running for his appointed seat is in bed with slumlords taking advantage of poor black people (and most likely wants to take advantage of more) in the name of God. The next police chief may not even be black. Black Memphians welcome back to 1973, because that was the last time yall had this little influence over a city in which you have a near super-majority population. Memphis may need to change its name to Ferguson, TN.

Brad Watkins for New HCD Director

I know of no one more qualified, with more passion for service to the community, and possessing more knowledge of municipal/county government. This city is starved for new ideas. The incoming mayor should select Brad Watkins the new Director of HCD. Here is what he wants to do. From Brad's facebook page -I will halt the demolition of Foote Homes and instead work to enact the original community plan residents drafted with the Vance Avenue Collaborative. -I will immediately restore the 260-HOME hotline for families experiencing homelessness and give a full accounting to the public as to why it was disconnected and who is responsible. -Establish 3 free homeless shelters for men and for LGBT individuals and double the number of beds available for women without children by 2020. -Establish a HOMELESSNESS Bill of rights as it pertains to all HCD/HUD funded services to demand greater accountability and consumer control. -The Mid-South Coliseum plans will be reviewed and enacted with greater public input and direction. -There will be a full audit and inspection of all HCD funded grantees who provide services for people with disabilities,homelessness and seniors and an advisory council and Equity Review Board made up of residents and consumers of these services will be recruited who will be able to bring consumer complaints directly to my office, with the power to potentially discontinue funding to providers who are not in compliance -I will work with the new administration and council to ensure activation of the CLEAN Neighborhoods Act which would allow the city of Memphis to legally contract with Neighborhood associations, and community groups for trash clean up and mowing of vacant lots. -New PILOTS will be geographically based in areas of high blight and low employment in order to qualify and determination of how large a tax break or incentive is provided. This will ensure that ALL neighborhoods receive equity in redevelopment and blight reduction and establish COMMUNITY DEVELOPER BENEFIT AGREEMENTS as the NORM in all redevelopment projects involving any public funds and/or incentives. -Work with the Office of Neighborhood Relations to provide a monthly venue where representatives from neighborhood and community groups can have input in drafting the City of Memphis consolidated plan for redevelopment conducted by the Urban Planning department of the University of Memphis. This body will set the basis for spending of CDBG and ESG funds. -I will provide greater transparency by giving members of the City Council an itemized list of all projects funded by ESG and CDBG funds to be approved individually rather than as a block lump sum. As reported to HUD in the City of Memphis Consolidated plan. -Using GIS mapping and cross referencing HCD data with Bankruptcy court documents will determine how many foreclosed properties are in fact still owned by banks, to prepare for further fines and lawsuits to recoup loses from city funded mowings, board up's and demolitions of band owned blight and to provide greater ethical lending practices. -Work with the Memphis City Council to pass a foreclosure registry fee which will mandate that any foreclosure proceedings MUST be reported to the city of Memphis and a $125 fee which will go towards rapid rehousing housing assistance. -Work with City Code,MLGW and County Trustee and Register to create a comprehensive public data base of blighted properties with clear lines of ownership all using parcel id numbers. -Share data and cooperate in a joint investigation on the correlation between vacant fires and properties on the HUD list to aid MFD in fighting fires and preventing arson. -Focus on stimulating LOCALLY owned night clubs, dance clubs and hotels near Graceland. Maximize the tourism draw to Whitehaven and it's proximity to the airport. -Communicate with MATA to coordinate redevelopment efforts with Bus routes to ensure that public transit can easily move people in areas of highest unemployment to areas with the highest business density. -Purchase surplus Katrina Cottages from Mississippi's now complete Katrina reconstruction. These small homes are rot resistant, energy efficient and portable up to 100 miles. This will be used as infill in areas with high rates of blight for affordable housing. -Convert 3 closed schools into Single person occupancy units for affordable housing for families, with wrap around services and job skills training provided on campus as determined by WIN and in partnership with Mid-South Community College which is about half the cost of Southwest. -Convert MHA and all other HCD/HUD funded subsidized housing into Housing Co'op's where residents will have control over the facility and will choose and hire and oversee all contractors and property managerial contractors. Residents will be given first priority with any hires to maintenance and security services, with skills trainings from LeMoyne Owen, Southwest and Midsouth CC to establish resident Worker Co'ops to contract directly for these needs. -Work with Code enforcement and MLGW inspectors to serve as command and control to relentlessly pursue litigation and improved compliance and accountability with all slumlord rental properties. -Review all contracts and purchasing to prioritize local vendors and ensure proper minority and women business participation. All contracts will be open bid process to all qualified vendors. -Convert 6 sections of connected vacant lots in low income blighted communities into large parks with trails and lakes stocked with catfish, brim and other fish for outdoor recreational activities.

The Geography of Ashley Madison Users-Mississippi Edition

Hello, I haven't posted anything in a year because I've been really busy and I didn't have too much interesting to map. Until yesterday. I was shown a list of all the Ashley Madison subscribers in Mississippi. I knew it would be something interesting to see mostly because of the level of hypocrisy. We in Memphis get a large dose of Mississippi political ads during election season. Endless professing of who had the most Mississippi conservative values. Then driving around Mississippi you see signs that say "Jesus". Just "Jesus". (I never knew so many people named Jesus lived in Mississippi and wanted people driving by to know it. So many proud Latinos in Mississippi.) Maybe they mean Jesus Christ. If so, it sure isn't a Christian living state. Mississippi ranks 8th in the nation for the highest divorce rate, behind low-conservative value places like Arkansas, Idaho, Wyoming, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Kentucky. Mississippi ranks 49th, only behind New Jersey for lowest marriage rate. What do you get when you combine the 8th highest divorce rate with the almost lowest marriage rate in the Union? The lowest cheating rate. Congratulations Mississippi. The few people in Mississippi married are doing a good job, except in some select places. Check out the map to see where the cheaters are.

Fearless Polar Donkey Election Prediction

9th Congressional Seat- Cohen 76%-Wilkins 24% (Way too much drama for a blowout) Shelby County Mayor- Luttrell 54%-Malone 46% (Malone doesn't have resources and Brown/Brooks dragging down ticket) District Attorney- Weirich 69%-Brown 31% (Weirich deserves to loose. Brown is a total nutcase.) Sheriff- Oldham 61%-Cobb 39% (Oldham campaign seems really organized. Cobb, not so much. Plus, campaigning with Brown doesn't help.) Juvenile Court Clerk- Touliatos 62%-Brooks 38% (Henri can't stop being mean. She and Brown give white folks nightmares.) Assessor-Johnson 53%-Alexander 47% (God help us if Alexander wins. The county will go bankrupt. Brooks and Brown make this election much hard on Cheyenne than it needs to be.)

If The Gaza Strip Were In Shelby County

Imagine if the Gaza Strip was in Shelby County. It's not hard. Here is a map that is to scale. Shelby County has 927,000 people in 763 sq miles of land. The density is 1,228 people per sq mile. Gaza has twice the population of Shelby County, 1.8 million packed into 139 sq miles. That's 13,000 people per square mile. Now lets walk in the shoes of an average Palestinian but use Shelby County locations. Remember, Gaza has a been a giant prison camp for years and the Israeli Army calculated that there can only be 2,279 calories of food intake per person per day. "In 2007 the Gaza Strip was effectively sealed shut. All exports were banned, and just 131 truckloads of foodstuffs and other essential products were permitted entry per day. Israel also strictly controlled which products could and could not be imported. Prohibited items have included A4 paper, chocolate, coriander, crayons, jam, pasta, shampoo, shoes and wheelchairs." (From this article) So lets imagine being in Gaza but using Shelby County locations. The Israeli Army has started to do airstrikes in Bartlett and tanks are lined up along Summer Avenue waiting on orders to invade. The Israelis tell you to leave, but as cited above, there isn't any extra food. Plus, where would you go? You could walk to the Raleigh Springs Mall, but Israeli artillery and warplanes are dropping bombs. Additionally, Israeli warships are shelling Austin Peay Hwy. 4 children were blown up in a parking lot. Could you and your family walk all the way to Graceland? Would the Egyptians let us cross Elvis Presley Blvd to escape the war? In a couple days you might be able to get to Sam Cooper. But by then the Israeli tanks will be invading Gaza and Sam Cooper is at the narrowest point in Gaza. Only a mile or two from the invading tanks and army. May be you could get to the Defense Depot in South Memphis, but 1 million other people without food and water are thinking the same thing. Plus, you would be next to the Israeli settlement at the airport. The Israeli army will go there first. When you put in your hometown locations, it is easy to see how screwed it is to a Palestinian in Gaza.

The Absolutely Mind-Boggling Incompetence of the Wharton Administration

No one can accuse me of being an AC supporter, but today's report of the internal audit of the grass cutting operations blew my mind. Wow, the corruption didn't shock me. It was the incompetence and total lack of awareness that did. A couple years ago I wrote about AC's administration and Code Enforcement. You can read it here. Code Enforcement was riddled with corruption causing declines in property values and increased costs in blight related services (police, fire, etc). The Administration didn't want to hear about the specifics of this corruption and how it was being done. Instead, it quietly pushed out senior management, did some minor reforms, then put AC's buddy in charge. Fast forward 3 years and the corruption amazingly got even worse. This is what happens when you don't have a clue how to run a bureaucracy tasked with a really important function like protecting your tax base. When you look at the numbers anyone with have a clue realizes Code Enforcement's mowing program is totally out of control and they got away with it for TWO YEARS! Here's the numbers. In FY2012, the lot mowings were 7,100. That's a bunch, bordering on the unbelievable. But get this, FY2013 they claimed 37,000 lots mowed and another 35,000 in FY2014. there are only about 340,000 parcels in all of Shelby County. Memphis has about 220,000 parcels and the city is about 330 square miles. To give you a better idea I made a map showing what 36,000 parcels looks like.

In Frasyer,I selected every parcel 2 acres or smaller. Those are all in red. There are only 13,729 parcels in Frayser under 2 acres and when you add them all together that is 6.4 square miles. That is 3,098 football fields. In green on the map are all the parcels of Raleigh under 2 acres. There are only 13,450 parcels that work out to be 6.6 square miles. So basically all of Frayser and Raleigh only add up to 27,000 parcels. But hey, maybe I'm being unfair. Frayser and Raleigh were old suburbs with larger parcels. Well, look at the pink parcels. These are all the parcels north of Summer/North Parkway and the northern half of Midtown along with Binghampton within the 240 loop. This is what 36,600 parcels under 2 acres look like. It is 11 square miles or 5,324 football fields! If you mowed everyday of spring, summer and fall, you would have to mow 19 football fields a day. Code Enforcement claimed they mowed the equivalent of this area for TWO STRAIGHT YEARS! Goddamn that is a lot of mowing. You would need an army of Forest Gumps to do that. $6.3 million is what was spent over those two years. If I was in the Mayor's office and Onzie gave me a report that said in the first half of fiscal year 2013 the city of Memphis mowed Frayser I would have said 1) You are out of your f-ing mind and 2) Shut the whole operation down. Who, with an ounce of common sense, says great job mowing 16% of the city and tripling our mowing budget. Go out there and do it again next year! Over 3 years, the City of Memphis spent $7.6 million supposedly mowing grass. It would have been more effective to drop 7.6 million one dollar bills from a helicopter for all the good it did you.