The Big Deal About U.S. Energy Self-Sufficiency

Mark J. Perry caused a minor sensation on October 22, 2012 when he posted a blog about record-breaking fossil fuel production in the United States. Perry is an economics professor at the University of Michigan at Flint and a visiting scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. His blog is titled as an economics and finance website but a great deal of content is about energy.

In "U.S. fossil fuel production will reach all-time high this year; America’s energy self-sufficiency will be highest since 1990" (http://www.aei-ideas.org/channel/carpe-diem/page/2/), Perry shows a stunning graph of U.S. fossil fuel production (coal, natural gas and crude oil) from 1975 to 2012 (Exhibit 1).

Exhibit 1. U.S Fossil Fuel Production.  Source:  Mark Perry.

I was able to reproduce his graph using EIA data but I had to include natural gas plant liquids to make it match. When I plotted this data on a more conventional y-axis scale, the enormity of the anomaly shrinks to what it really is, namely an increase in overall fossil fuel production within a narrow range of fluctuation over three-and-a-half decades (Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2. U.S Energy Production From Fossil Fuel Sources. Source: EIA.

2011 fossil fuel energy production was 1.3 quadrillion British thermal units (Quads) higher than the previous peak in 1998 with 60.6 Quad in 2011 and 59.3 Quad in 1998. The EIA reports comparative energy production in Quads to normalize the various measures of its components: cubic feet for gas, barrels for crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGL), and short tons for coal. A Quad is a measure of the heat content of those energy sources when burned. Exhibit 3 shows how this conversion is made.

Exhibit 3. Quad conversion Table. Source: EIA.

One Quad is approximately equal to 1 trillion cubic feet of gas, 180 million barrels of oil, 120 million barrels of NGL (about 65% of the thermal content of crude oil), and 36 million short tons of coal.

Exhibit 4 shows the various components of total fossil fuel energy at a scale appropriate to understanding which sources increased and decreased over the period of the graph.

Exhibit 4. U.S Energy Production From Component Fossil Fuel Sources. Source: EIA.

Comparing 1998 with 2011 production, coal decreased by about 184,000 tons per day, natural gas increased a whopping 11 billion cubic feet per day (bcf), crude oil decreased almost 605,000 barrels per day and NGLs increased approximately 160,000 barrels per day (Exhibit 5).

Exhibit 5. 2011 vs 1998 Fossil Fuel Component Comparison Table. Source: EIA.

Dr. Perry celebrates the success of the shale revolution in his blog calling it "a big deal." He points out that the U.S. is closer to energy self-sufficiency than at any other time in the past 22 years. But the problem for the U.S. is not total energy. We have always had an abundant endowment of coal and natural gas. The problem is liquid fuel for transport and that comes from crude oil. The shale revolution in oil that he describes is notable and important but it only returns production to 2003 levels which were lower than at any time after 1951.

There is nothing untrue in Perry's blog but it, unfortunately, contributes to the distorted viewpoint that the U.S. will soon become energy independent and will no longer need to import foreign oil. The U.S. has used more oil than it produces since records were kept in 1920 but became a true net oil importing country after World War II (Exhibit 6).

Exhibit 6. US Crude Oil Production and Consumption Since 1920. Source: EIA.

After production peaked in 1970, not even the discovery of Prudhoe Bay, the largest oil field in the U.S. (12.8 billion barrels produced to date), brought production back to the 1970 peak. Including the recent increase from shale oil, the gap between production and consumption is approximately 9 million barrels of oil per day, almost as much as 1970 peak production.

I am encouraged by the slight reversal in U.S. oil production but see no way that we will become oil independent. The star performer in total fossil fuel production is natural gas. While it is true that gas offers the possibility of replacing crude oil refined products as a transport fuel, this will be decades in the future (massive equipment changes and distribution infrastructure) and does not address the near- to medium-term problem of oil imports. Curiously, nowhere in his blog about economics and finance does Perry discuss the cost and profitability of shale gas or shale oil. Rather than write so much about energy, a subject outside of his training and experience, it would be useful if he wrote about the economics of the shale developments that he is so exuberant about. That would be a big deal.

Testing the Davy Jones Well

I heard from a reliable source that McMoRan plans to test its ultra-deep Davy Jones 1 well soon after Labor Day.

Arthur Berman Publications

Arthur E. Berman Publications

1. Berman, A. E., 2012, U.S. Shale Gas: A Different Perspective on Future Supply and Price: Bulletin of the South Texas Geological Society (February, 2012) v. 52, no. 6, p. 19-44.

2. Berman, A. E., 2011, After The Gold Rush: A Perspective on Future U.S. Natural Gas Supply and Price: The Oil Drum : http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8212.

3. Berman, A. E. and L. F. Pittinger, 2011, U.S. Shale Gas: Less Abundance, Higher Cost: The Oil Drum (August 5, 2011), http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8212.

4. Berman, A. E., 2010, EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011: Don’t Worry, Be Happy: The Oil Drum December 29, 2010: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7285.

5. Berman, A. E., 2010, Shale Gas—Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations: The Oil Drum October 29, 2010: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7075#more.

6. Berman, A. E., 2010, BP's Deepwater Horizon - Static Top Kill vs. Bottom Kill: Weighing the Risks: The Oil Drum July 30, 2010: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6790.

7. Berman, A. E., 2010, Estimated Oil Flow Rates From the BP Mississippi Canyon Block 252 “Macondo” Well: The Oil Drum June 29, 2010: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6644.

8. Berman, A. E., 2010, What caused the Deepwater Horizon Disaster?: The Oil Drum May 21, 2010: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6493#more

9. Berman, A. E., 2010, ExxonMobil’s Acquisition of XTO Energy: The Fallacy of the Manufacturing Model in Shale Plays: The Oil Drum: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6229

10. Berman, A. E., 2010, McMoRan Davy Jones Gas Discovery: The Oil Drum: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6135#more

11. Berman, A.E., 2009, Facts are Stubborn Things: Association for the Study of Peak Oil: http://www.aspousa.org/index.php/2009/11/facts-are-stubborn-things-arthur-e-berman-november-2009/

12. Berman, A. E., 2009, A Haynesville Shale symposium: World Oil, v. 230, no.10, p. 15.

13. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 10, p. 17.

14. Berman, A. E., 2009, Realities of shale play reserves: examples from the Fayetteville Shale: World Oil, v. 230, no.9, p. 17.

15. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 9, p. 17.

16. Berman, A. E., 2009, Lessons from the Barnett Shale imply caution in other shale plays: World Oil, v. 230, no. 8, p. 17.

17. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 8, p 19.

18. Berman, A. E., 2009, Mozambique heats up: World Oil, v. 230, no.7, p. 17.

19. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 7, p. 19.

20. Berman, A. E., 2009, A long recovery for gas prices: revisiting the Haynesville Shale: World Oil, v. 230, no. 6, p. 15.

21. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 6, p. 17.

22. Berman, A. E., 2009, Papua New Guinea emerging as a natural gas province: World Oil, v. 230, no.5, p. 15.

23. Berman, A. E., 2009, Haynesville sizzle could fizzle: World Oil, v. 230, no.4, p. 19.

24. Berman, A. E., 2009, Independents discover major oil reserves in Uganda: World Oil, v. 230, no.3, p. 15-70.

25. Berman, A. E., 2009, Independents discover major oil reserves in Uganda: World Oil, v. 230, no.3, p. 15-70.

26. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 3, p. 17.

27. Berman, A. E., 2009, Low oil prices and the future of exploration—en aguas revueltas: World Oil, v. 230, no.2, p. 21.

28. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 2, p. 23.

29. Berman, A. E., 2009, Shale Plays and Lower Natural Gas Prices: A Time for Critical Thinking: World Oil, v.230, no. 1, p. 15.

30. Berman, A. E., 2009, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 230, no. 1, p. 17.

31. Berman, A. E., 2008, Oil and politics in Sudan: World Oil, v. 229, no.12, p. 15.

32. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 12, p. 17.

33. Berman, A. E., 2008, 50 Years of Exploration in the Tarim Basin, v. 229, no. 11, p. 21.

34. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 11, p. 23.

35. Berman, A. E., 2008, Geology matters in the Austin Chalk play, v. 229, no. 10, p. 21.

36. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 10, p. 23.

37. Berman, A. E., 2008, The Haynesville Shale sizzles while the Barnett cools, v. 229, no. 9, p. 23.

38. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 9, p. 25.

39. Berman, A. E., 2008, The High Price of Oil: World Oil, v. 229, no. 8, p. 23.

40. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 8, p. 25.

41. Berman, A. E., 2008, Re-examining peak oil: An interview with Nansen G. Saleri: World Oil, v. 229, no. 7, p. 25.

42. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 7, p. 27.

43. Berman, A. E., 2008, The limits of global gas supply: World Oil, v. 229, no. 6, p. 23.

44. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 6, p. 25.

45. Berman, A. E., 2008, Another Discovery in Belize: World Oil, v. 229, no. 5, p. 23-24.

46. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 5, p. 27.

47. Berman, A. E., 2008, Winners Curse: The end of exploration for ExxonMobil: World Oil, v. 229, no. 4, p. 23-24.

48. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 4, p. 25.

49. Berman, A. E., 2008, NAPE exhibitors miss the mark: World Oil, v. 229, no. 3, p. 23.

50. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 3, p. 25.

51. Berman, A. E., 2008, Three Super-giant fields discovered offshore Brazil: World Oil, v. 229, no. 2, p. 23-24.

52. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 2, p. 27.

53. Berman, A. E., 2008, The paradigm and the anomaly: World Oil, v. 229, no. 1, p. 20.

54. Berman, A. E., 2008, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 229, no. 1, p. 21.

55. Berman, A. E., 2007, Peaking in Tongues: World Oil, v. 228, no. 12, p. 20.

56. Berman, A. E., 2007, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 228, no. 12, p. 25.

57. Berman, A. E., 2007, Revisiting the Barnett Shale: World Oil, v. 228, no. 11, p. 20.

58. Berman, A. E., 2007, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 228, no. 11, p. 21.

59. Berman, A. E., 2007, Readers respond to the Fayetteville Shale: World Oil, v. 228, no. 10, p. 20.

60. Berman, A. E., 2007, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 228, no. 10, p. 21.

61. Berman, A. E. and J. H. Rosenfeld, 2007, Deep-water Gulf of Mexico Wilcox play: a new paradigm for the Gulf Coast Paleogene: Petroleum Frontiers, v. 21, no. 1, IHS, Inc., 54p.

62. Berman, A. E., 2007, Will LNG imports hurt US natural gas exploration?: World Oil, v. 228, no. 9, p. 20.

63. Berman, A. E., 2007, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 228, no. 9, p. 19.

64. Berman, A. E., 2007, The Fayetteville Shale play: An early evaluation: World Oil, v. 228, no. 8, p. 20.

65. Berman, A. E., 2007, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 228, no. 8, p. 25.

66. Berman, A. E., 2007, Giant Nanpu field discovery: A lesson in reserve calculation: World Oil, v. 228, no. 7, p. 19.

67. Berman, A. E., 2007, Exploration Discoveries: World Oil, v. 228, no. 7, p. 21.

68. Berman, A. E., 2007, The impending natural gas supply crisis: Why prices will rise: World Oil, v. 228, no. 6 (June 2007), p.21.

69. Berman, A. E. and J. H. Rosenfeld, 2007, A new depositional model for the deepwater Wilcox-equivalent Whopper Sand—changing the paradigm: World Oil, v. 228, no. 6 (June 2007), p.77-82.

70. Berman, A. E., 2007, The end of exploration: World Oil, v. 228, no. 5 (May 2007), p.21.

71. Berman, A. E., 2007, Plank road fever and the Barnett Shale: World Oil, v. 228, no. 4 (April 2007), p.23-24.

72. Berman, A. E., 2007, Deepwater Wilcox play in the Gulf of Mexico: Paradigm lost: World Oil, v. 228, no. 3 (March 2007), p.19.

73. Berman, A. E., 2005, The Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake of December 26, 2004: New Insights That Will Change the Next 40 Years and the Plate Tectonic Paradigm: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 48, no. 4, p. 31-41.

74. Berman, A. E., 2005, The Debate Over Subsidence in Louisiana and Texas: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 48, no. 1, p. 47-54

75. Berman, A. E., 2005, Ideas Are Like Stars: The Current Oil Boom: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 10, p. 9-23.

76. Berman, A. E., 2005, The Oil Boom, 1973-1986: A Simple Story? Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 9, p. 9-21.

77. Berman, A. E., 2005, An Interview with Joel Bartsch, President of the HMNS: Gold, Re-opening of the Weiss Energy Hall and Hall of Gems and Minerals, and Distinguished Lectures on Earthquakes and Tsunamis: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 9, p. 53-55.

78. Berman, A. E., 2005, Letters from Jakarta: Indian Ocean Nations Select a Tsunami Warning System: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 8, p. 9-19.

79. Berman, A. E., 2005, An Interview with Jim Hackett, Anadarko Petroleum CEO, January 7, 2005: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 7, p. 25-36.

80. Berman, A. E., 2005, The Northern Sumatra Earthquake of 2004:Forty Years of Ignoring Plate Tectonics: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 6, p. 9-19.

81. Berman, A. E., 2005, Anatomy of a Silent Disaster: Ongoing Subsidence and Inundation of the Northern Margin of the Gulf of Mexico: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 6, p. 31-47.

82. Berman, A. E., 2004, Technology in the Post-Modern Age: A Conversation with John Lienhard: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 5, p. 9-17.

83. Berman, A. E., 2004, New ideas and their diffusion: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 4, p. 9-17.

84. Berman, A. E., 2004: Election issues in the context of petroleum and history part 2. United States Energy Dependence: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 3, p. 9-13

85. Berman, A. E., 2004: Election issues in the context of petroleum and history: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 2, p. 9-13.

86. Berman, A. E., 2004: A lesson about predictions: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 47, no. 1, p. 9-11.

87. Berman, A. E., 2004: The war on terror and strategic oil supplies: Rigzone, June 11, 2004.

88. Berman, A. E., 2004: Proven reserve reductions: a geologist’s perspective—Is certification necessary?: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 46, no. 10, p. 67-73.

89. Berman, A. E., 2004: Oil and gas proven reserve reductions: a geologist’s perspective: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 46, no. 9, p. 55-60.

90. Berman, A. E., 2004: Pemex makes gas discoveries in the Sabinas basin: Rigzone, March 4, 2004.

91. Berman, A. E., 2004: Academic Liaison Committee adds resources and goes on the HGS Website: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 46, no. 7, p. 31-39.

92. Berman, A. E., 2004: The HGS Website: a closer look: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 46, no. 5, p. 37-51.

93. Berman, A. E., 2004: The Bureau of Economic Geology—an interview with Director Scott Tinker and staff and a new Houston research center: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 46, no. 6, p. 37-45.

94. Berman, A.E. and V. Schmidt, 2003, Africa: New Plays, New Perspectives: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 46, no. 3, p. 37-45

95. Berman, A. E., 2003: Eyes on planet Earth: monitoring our changing world: Houston Geological Society Bulletin, v. 46, no. 4, p. 23-28.

96. Haldar, J. K., C. J. O’Byrne, A. E. Berman, and J. Gamber, 1999, Dynamic Response of Deepwater Depositional Systems to Growth of the Mississippi Fan Fold Belt, Gulf of Mexico (abstract): in W. C. Terrell and L. Czerniakowski, eds., Transactions Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies, vol. 49, p. 2.

97. O’Byrne, C. J., J. K. Haldar, R. Klecker, A. E. Berman, and J. Martinez, 1999, Dynamic Response of Deepwater Depositional Systems to Growth of the Mississippi Fan Fold Belt, Gulf of Mexico: in W..C. Terrell and L. Czerniakowski, eds., Transactions Gulf Coast Association of Geological Societies, vol. 49, p. 404-417.

Berman On CBS Evening News With Scott Pelley

CBS anchor Scott Pelley did a story on Chesapeake Energy's meltdown Friday, May 12, 2012. I had a brief appearance commenting on the slow train wreck of the shale gas producers as they consciously destroyed their own product price by over production.

Berman To McClendon: Some Support From An Unexpected Source

This has been a tough period for Chesapeake Energy and Aubrey McClendon with his loans and losses on drilling investments. Despite these issues, I give him and his company credit for vision and leadership in the shale revolution.

He once described me as "a third-tier geologist who considers himself a reservoir engineer, that somehow [knows] more about the shale gas revolution in America than companies that have combined market caps of almost $2 trillion and have spent hundreds of billions of dollars to develop these new resources, I mean, it's ludicrous."

Nice.

The logic is that corporations that spend billions of dollars of shareholder money are inherently more knowledgeable and credible than industry professionals who have published dozens of technical papers on the questionable reserves and economics of shale gas.

What the revelations about McClendon's losses really mean is that what we have been saying for years is true: shale gas is an economic loser.

Still, McClendon has shown singular direction and foresight in an exploration and production industry commonly characterized by the herd mentality of late adopters.

Meet the man the shale gas industry hates

Dave Parkinson has written a good article in The Globe and Mail about me called "Meet the man the shale gas industry hates."

I could say a lot about some of the comments by industry people in the article, but I will focus on Devon Energy spokesman Chip Minty's statement that, "We kind of look at Arthur Berman as a dinosaur. With every day that goes by and these shale production numbers come in, the validity of Arthur Berman's claims becomes more questionable."

First of all, Chip, let's talk about grammar and proper English. "We kind of look" sounds like teenager speak. Do you have an opinion about me and my work or kind of an opinion?

What Chip Minty is really saying is that he dismisses the decades of industry experience that underlie the many technical articles that I and my colleagues have published on shale gas reserves and economics. If he had a technical rebuttal to our work, he would have presented it but his best shot is to say that I am a dinosaur. Touche, Chip. That really gets to the heart of the problem!

His company and the industry have recklessly over-produced large volumes of natural gas at a price that is not commercial for anyone. The headlines about Chesapeake Energy and its problems over the past week show that shale gas investments are not profitable.

I am used to the personal attacks by shale gas defenders. If they had anything to say about the real issues of lack of profit and shareholder equity, they would.

Who is the dinosaur in this debate?

To The Editor of The New York Times

“U.S. Inches Toward Goal Of Energy Independence” (news article, March 23) adds fuel to a growing but unfounded perception that recent increases in domestic oil production means we will someday be able to forgo imported oil altogether.

There is no question that production has increased. This, however, constitutes less than five percent of total U.S. consumption. While any reversal in production decline is encouraging, this is far from a cause for exuberance, let alone long-term confidence in our prospects for energy independence.

The current gap between U.S. crude oil production and consumption remains near nine million barrels per day. This is not a trivial obstacle: maximum U.S. production has declined from 10 million barrels in 1970 to 5.7 million barrels today.

Even assuming the most optimistic published estimates of U.S. crude oil production growth, we would be left with a gap of six million barrels per day. Those who predict energy independence need to demonstrate how this gap will be filled, particularly given the precipitous decline rate of wells that contribute to higher production.

Respectfully,

Arthur E. Berman

Petroleum Geologist, Managing Editor of TheOilDrum.Com, and Director, Association For The Study of Peak Oil and Gas USA

Sugar Land, Texas

Rolling Stone Responds to Chesapeake Energy on 'The Fracking Bubble'

Rolling Stone Contributing Editor Jeff Goodell has published a response on March 6, 2011 to Chesapeake Energy's rebuttal of his "The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind the Gas Boom" that was published on March 2, 2012.

The New York Post: Another Shale Gas Attack

On March 5, 2012, The New York Post featured a post called "Another Shale Gas Attack Full of Hot Air." The author, Abby W. Schachter, noted my dissatisfaction with being mis-quoted in the recent Rolling Stone article "The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind the Gas Boom."

She wrote, "Only trouble with the claim is the main person Goodell uses to substantiate this claim has now written that he was misquoted, that the reporter had a political agenda and that there is no truth to the reporter's claim."

She, apparently, has the same problem mis-quoting me as Goodell. I wrote that I was mis-quoted but never said that the author had a political agenda or that there was no truth to the reporter's claim.

The statements incorrectly attributed to me in Rolling Stone are "According to Arthur Berman, a respected energy consultant in Texas who has spent years studying the industry, Chesapeake and its lesser competitors resemble a Ponzi scheme, overhyping the promise of shale gas in an effort to recoup their huge investments in leases and drilling. When the wells don't pay off, the firms wind up scrambling to mask their financial troubles with convoluted off-book accounting methods."

What I wrote was "That may be what Goodell thinks but that is not what I said, think or imply."

The two quoted statements by me that follow in the same paragraph were accurately represented by Goodell.

I Was Mis-Represented in the Rolling Stone Article: The Big Fracking Bubble

"The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind the Gas Boom" by Jeff Goodell was published March 1, 2012 in Rolling Stone. I was interviewed by Goodell and was mentioned in the article. I sent the following rebuttal to the editors of Rolling Stone:

March 3, 2012

To the Editor:

I was interviewed by Jeff Goodell and mentioned in his recent Rolling Stone article "The Big Fracking Bubble: The Scam Behind the Gas Boom."

He wrote, "According to Arthur Berman, a respected energy consultant in Texas who has spent years studying the industry, Chesapeake and its lesser competitors resemble a Ponzi scheme, overhyping the promise of shale gas in an effort to recoup their huge investments in leases and drilling."

I never said that Chesapeake or any other company involved in shale gas drilling is involved in or resembles a Ponzi scheme. That may be what Goodell thinks but that is not what I said, think or imply. I have expressed doubts about the viability of the shale gas business model used by some companies, but I do not question the legality of those business models. The term Ponzi scheme does not remotely apply to the way that exploration and production companies obtain capital and rationalize earnings.

Jeff Goodell may think that some shale gas companies are involved in Ponzi schemes, but such statements cannot be attributed to me.

Respectfully,

Arthur E. Berman