Lib Dem Phenomenon

Cast your mind back 11 months to the general election of 2010. At that point everyone “agreed with Nick” and the Lib Dems were flying high in the polls. Indeed some commentators were forecasting a major breakthrough for them which was going to smash the duopoly of the Tories and Labour.

When the results came in, the reality was significantly different. The Lib Dems actually lost seats, even though they did eventually hold the balance of power.

Fast forward to 2011 and the forthcoming Holyrood elections and I am wondering if we are seeing the same thing happen again, this time in reverse? In poll after poll, the Lib Dems are getting a beating, polling in the mid single figures repeatedly. The Green Party has actually been polling better than them recently!

So come election day, can they turn it around and at least avoid the current electoral apocalypse that is currently being predicted?

I think it will depend on a large part on what extent the public can detach what is happening at Westminster to what is going on at Holyrood. For example will the electorate punish the Lib Dems for their part in the decisions such as spending cuts, or will they save that for the Westminster election?

A further complication will be whether the electorate hold the Lib Dems accountable for matters that don’t directly concern the people of Scotland? For example tuition fees outwith Scotland. The Lib Dems had campaigned vigorously against tuition fees in the run up to the election, yet when they got a sniff of power, they not only abandoned their principles, they actually introduced the bill to increase the charges.

So how is this likely to play out in Scotland?

The Highlands and Islands are probably the safest bet for the Lib Dems and they should retain their 4 seats there. The other seats could go either way. But it is in the North East where the Lib Dems face possibly the biggest threat. Being associated with a tax on oil companies that puts thousands of jobs at risk is not a clever election strategy.

I wonder if the Lib Dems are regretting which coalition they did and didn’t enter into over the last few years?!

Polls Getting Closer

The latest poll on voting intentions for the imminent Holyrood elections makes for very interesting reading. The SNP, who were previously trailing in the polls, have now closed the gap considerably. Indeed, there is practically nothing to choose between Labour and the SNP in the TNS-BMRB poll.

Perhaps the more interesting thing over the last few months though, has been the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their lost vote and who benefits from it may prove to be one of the things that decide this election. Logic indicates that their vote would transfer to the Labour Party.

Running the poll through the Scotland Votes model, shows that the Lib Dems would be on course to lose 8 seats (50% of their 2007 achievement). Looking at their eleven constituency seats, the SNP came second in seven. Labour came second in three and the Tories one. However, if these seats were to exchange hands in that proportion, what would that do to the SNP regional allocation of seats? This would undoubtedly reduce the 26 regional seats the SNP managed to achieve last time.

One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be a really interesting election with the result completely unpredictable.

Only 37 days to go!