What's really happening with public opinion in the USA? Are the opinion polls reflecting reality?

 This Zero Hedge  post from last week was fascinating and I apologise for not posting it until now.

Earlier this morning we wrote about the obvious sampling bias in the latest ABC / Washington Post poll that showed a 12-point national advantage for Hillary.  Like many of the recent polls from Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, this latest poll included a 9-point sampling bias toward registered democrats. 

"METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats - Republicans - Independents."

...

Now, for all of you out there who still aren't convinced that the polls are "adjusted", we present to you the following Podesta email, leaked earlier today, that conveniently spells out, in detail, exactly how to "manufacture" the desired data. The email starts out with a request for recommendations on "oversamples for polling" in order to "maximize what we get out of our media polling."

I also want to get your Atlas folks to recommend oversamples for our polling before we start in February. By market, regions, etc. I want to get this all compiled into one set of recommendations so we can maximize what we get out of our media polling.

The email even includes a handy, 37-page guide with the following poll-rigging recommendations.  In Arizona, over sampling of Hispanics and Native Americans is highly recommended:

Research, microtargeting & polling projects
-  Over-sample Hispanics
-  Use Spanish language interviewing. (Monolingual Spanish-speaking voters are among the lowest turnout Democratic targets)
-  Over-sample the Native American population

For Florida, the report recommends "consistently monitoring" samples to makes sure they're "not too old" and "has enough African American and Hispanic voters."  Meanwhile, "independent" voters in Tampa and Orlando are apparently more dem friendly so the report suggests filling up independent quotas in those cities first.

-  Consistently monitor the sample to ensure it is not too old, and that it has enough African American and Hispanic voters to reflect the state.
-  On Independents: Tampa and Orlando are better persuasion targets than north or south Florida (check your polls before concluding this). If there are budget questions or oversamples, make sure that Tampa and Orlando are included first.

Meanwhile, it's suggested that national polls over sample "key districts / regions" and "ethnic" groups "as needed."

-  General election benchmark, 800 sample, with potential over samples in key districts/regions
-  Benchmark polling in targeted races, with ethnic over samples as needed
-  Targeting tracking polls in key races, with ethnic over samples as needed

 ...

And that's how you manufacture a 12-point lead for your chosen candidate and effectively chill the vote of your opposition.   '

Do read the whole of that Zero Hedge piece.

This morning Paul Joseph Watson interviewed Bill Mitchell about the US Presidential Election opinion polls and he comes to some interesting conclusions about polling sampling bias.

You can watch that video here

The two hundred and tenth weekly "No shit, Sherlock" award - 'Not enough Tories' in general election opinion polls per BBC News

'Prof Curtice, who wrote the report for research agency NatCen, suggested polling difficulties arose "primarily because [pollsters] interviewed too many Labour supporters and not enough Conservatives"'

No Shit Sherlock 

More here http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35308129

Corbyn’s leader rating with YouGov drops to a calamitous minus 41% (Updated with YouGov chart)

Here's some polling news that Labour's media arm, the BBC, won't report.

'Corbyn's leader rating with YouGov drops to a calamitous minus 41%'

More here at Political Betting

A factor that may mean that the opinoin polls in 2015 are as out of kilter with reality as they were in 1992

Watch from 9:55 for the first mention of 'shy UKIP' that I've heard.

Muslim Opinion Polls - Challenging the 'Tiny Minority of Extremists' Myth - This is for Peter Craven aka @FALLFAN

For Peter Craven aka @FALLLFAN

Facts not anecdotal evidence based on a few conversations...

Terrorism:
ICM Poll: 20% of British Muslims sympathize with 7/7 bombers
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510866/Poll-reveals-40pc-of-Muslims-want-sharia-law-in-UK.html

NOP Research: 1 in 4 British Muslims say 7/7 bombings were justified
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/08/14/opinion/main1893879.shtml&date=2011-04-06
http://www.webcitation.org/5xkMGAEvY

People-Press: 31% of Turks support suicide attacks against Westerners in Iraq.
http://people-press.org/report/206/a-year-after-iraq-war

YNet: One third of Palestinians (32%) supported the slaughter of a Jewish family, including the children:
http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/04/06/32-of-palestinians-support-infanticide/
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4053251,00.html

World Public Opinion: 61% of Egyptians approve of attacks on Americans
32% of Indonesians approve of attacks on Americans
41% of Pakistanis approve of attacks on Americans
38% of Moroccans approve of attacks on Americans
83% of Palestinians approve of some or most groups that attack Americans (only 14% oppose)
62% of Jordanians approve of some or most groups that attack Americans (21% oppose)
42% of Turks approve of some or most groups that attack Americans (45% oppose)
A minority of Muslims disagreed entirely with terror attacks on Americans:
(Egypt 34%; Indonesia 45%; Pakistan 33%)
About half of those opposed to attacking Americans were sympathetic with al-Qaeda's attitude toward the U.S.
http://www.worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/pdf/feb09/STARTII_Feb09_rpt.pdf
Pew Research (2010): 55% of Jordanians have a positive view of Hezbollah
30% of Egyptians have a positive view of Hezbollah
45% of Nigerian Muslims have a positive view of Hezbollah (26% negative)
43% of Indonesians have a positive view of Hezbollah (30% negative)
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
Pew Research (2010): 60% of Jordanians have a positive view of Hamas (34% negative).
49% of Egyptians have a positive view of Hamas (48% negative)
49% of Nigerian Muslims have a positive view of Hamas (25% negative)
39% of Indonesians have a positive view of Hamas (33% negative)
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
Pew Research (2010): 15% of Indonesians believe suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified.
34% of Nigerian Muslims believe suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified.
http://pewglobal.org/2010/12/02/muslims-around-the-world-divided-on-hamas-and-hezbollah/
16% of young Muslims in Belgium state terrorism is "acceptable".
http://www.hln.be/hln/nl/1275/Islam/article/detail/1619036/2013/04/22/Zestien-procent-moslimjongens-vindt-terrorisme-aanvaardbaar.dhtml

Populus Poll (2006): 12% of young Muslims in Britain (and 12% overall) believe that suicide attacks against civilians in Britain can be justified.  1 in 4 support suicide attacks against British troops.
http://www.populuslimited.com/pdf/2006_02_07_times.pdf
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/07/more-survey-research-from-a-british-islamist

Pew Research (2007): 26% of younger Muslims in America believe suicide bombings are justified.
35% of young Muslims in Britain believe suicide bombings are justified (24% overall).
42% of young Muslims in France believe suicide bombings are justified (35% overall).
22% of young Muslims in Germany believe suicide bombings are justified.(13% overall).
29% of young Muslims in Spain believe suicide bombings are justified.(25% overall).
http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/muslim-americans.pdf#page=60

Pew Research (2011): 8% of Muslims in America believe suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified (81% never).
28% of Egyptian Muslims believe suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified (38% never).
http://www.people-press.org/2011/08/30/muslim-americans-no-signs-of-growth-in-alienation-or-support-for-extremism/

Pew Research (2007): Muslim-Americans who identify more strongly with their religion are three times more likely to feel that suicide bombings are justified
http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/muslim-americans.pdf#page=60

ICM: 5% of Muslims in Britain tell pollsters they would not report a planned Islamic terror attack to authorities.
27% do not support the deportation of Islamic extremists preaching violence and hate.
http://www.scotsman.com/?id=1956912005
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/07/more-survey-research-from-a-british-islamist.html

Federation of Student Islamic Societies: About 1 in 5 Muslim students in Britain (18%) would not report a fellow Muslim planning a terror attack.
http://www.fosis.org.uk/sac/FullReport.pdf
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/07/more-survey-research-from-a-british-islamist

ICM Poll: 25% of British Muslims disagree that a Muslim has an obligation to report terrorists to police.
http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/reviews/2004/Guardian%20Muslims%20Poll%20Nov%2004/Guardian%20Muslims%20Nov04.asp
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/07/more-survey-research-from-a-british-islamist

Populus Poll (2006): 16% of British Muslims believe suicide attacks against Israelis are justified.
37% believe Jews in Britain are a "legitimate target".
http://www.populuslimited.com/pdf/2006_02_07_times.pdf
http://www.danielpipes.org/blog/2005/07/more-survey-research-from-a-british-islamist

Pew Research (2013): At least 1 in 4 Muslims do not reject violence against civilians (study did not distinguish between those who believe it is partially justified and never justified).
http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/Muslim/worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-full-report.pdf

Pew Research (2013): 15% of Muslims in Turkey support suicide bombings (also 11% in Kosovo, 26% in Malaysia and 26% in Bangladesh).
http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/Muslim/worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-full-report.pdf

PCPO (2014): 89% of Palestinians support Hamas and other terrorists firing rockets at Israeli civilians.
http://www.jihadwatch.org/2014/08/poll-89-of-palestinians-support-jihad-terror-attacks-on-israely

Pew Research (2013): Only 57% of Muslims worldwide disapprove of al-Qaeda. Only 51% disapprove of the Taliban.  13% support both groups and 1 in 4 refuse to say.
http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/09/10/muslim-publics-share-concerns-about-extremist-groups/
http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/09/10/muslim-publics-share-concerns-about-extremist-groups/

Source: http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/pages/opinion-polls.htm

Are you wondering why the BBC's usual anti-Conservative reporting has become that much more aggressive in recent days?

Are you wondering why the BBC's usual anti-Conservative reporting has become that much more aggressive in recent days?

The reason is that David Cameron's Conservative Party Conference speech was so well received, especially the part about cutting taxes that the Labour Party had a familiar panic. The BBC so often fulfils the role of the Labour Party's propaganda arm that it upped the anti-Conservative coverage. The BBC seem obsessed by how the Conservatives will fund the tax cut, I don't remember the BBC similarly asking the Labour Party how they would fund their reckless rise in public spending 1999-2007.

With news that the latest YouGov Poll shows the Conservative party with a small (1 point) lead in the main question for the first time since 21012, you can expect the BBC's coverage to become more virulently anti-Conservative.

As an aside I thought that I'd see how long it took the BBC to update their Poll Tracker with this latest Poll. It looks as though it might be quite some time as the last poll that that page includes is the Populus poll of 6 May 2014. The BBC are almost five months behind on updating that useful tool.

To be fair the BBC are developing a new Poll Tracker, well they say they are but that project seems to have stalled and reports data no later than 2013.


So there we have it, a BBC virulently biased against the Conservative Party and so incompetent that it can't update a simple database. Remind me why we all have to fund this biased and obscene waste of money?

ComRes poll shows Boris Johnson's popularity crosses political affiliations

A new YouGov poll has revealed that 55% of Labour voters in the capital believe that Boris Johnson is doing a good job as London Mayor. Up from 49% since April, 55% of  Labour voters now believe that Boris is doing either "fairly well" or "very well" as Mayor.

Will the polls be right?

THE US Presidential election polls have been fascinating me, especially the way the headline figures are so often quoted without any analysis of the figures or how the poll was taken. regardless of the result tonight take a look at these links for some interesting polling background.

Here's Breitbart

'The last three polls Marquette has conducted of the presidential race have had a sample of D+2-4. Their polls throughout the year have ranged D+2-6. Their poll right before the June recall election of Scott Walker used a sample of D+5 and accurately predicted the election results. The sample for this latest poll? D+11. '

Here's another Breitbart

'One of the chief reasons the media is so mistaken in their zeal to proclaim Obama the election winner is that most of the polls they're basing their predictions on are wildly inflating Democrat turnout. The overwhelming majority of media polls are an assuming an electorate that is at least as Democrat as the one in 2008, with many polls assuming a higher Democrat turnout. This is just daft. The latest CBS poll of 3 swing states is the most recent to show that GOP has a huge turnout advantage over Democrats. '

Of course the question as to why the polls and the media seem so keen to push Obama's prospects is another matter.

Who's to blame for the current state of the UK economy?

Politics Home report some YouGov polling and includes two interesting pie (or should that be doughnut as the centre is missing) charts:

So the general public mostly see where the blame should lie, firmly at the door of the government that screwed the UK economy up over the last 11 years of its rule. However the idiocy of the Labour voters worries me; how can 26% blame a government in power for just over a year for the economic situation? are they so blinkered that they seriously believe that the Coalition can do anything other than try and resolve the appalling situation in which they find themselves? The 39% who blame 'global factors' are at least not so blinded by party loyalty that they must blame the Tories for everything. However only 3% of Labour voters are willing to ascribe any blame to their party in government; such loyalty in the face of all evidence to contrary must warm the cockles of Ed Balls and Ed Miliband's hearts...

Now why might that be?

The BBC's environment correspondent reports under the headline 'Nuclear power support in UK falls over Japan fears'. Interestingly the first line of the actual report reveals that 'More Britons support the building of new nuclear power stations than oppose it, despite the crisis at Japan's Fukushima plant, an opinion poll says.'

Richard Black's report continues 'But almost a half say they are worried about the safety of nuclear plants.'

After the BBC's scaremongering coverage of the Fukushima plant's problems I am surprised that more people are not worried about nuclear safety. The BBC line has been to ramp up the fears and exaggerate the radiation risks. This has worked, wherever I go I speak with people who think that the Fukushima plant is leaking huge amounts of lethal radiation and that large parts of north east Japan are all but death zones. This is of course mostly rubbish but scary rubbish is good television.

The opinion poll quoted was carried out by Friends of the Earth so I would like to know what the questions were and in what order they were asked. For instance was there a question along the lines of 'How worried are you by the recent leak of radiation at the Fukushima nuclear plant?' asked before the 'How worried are you by UK nuclear safety?' It is very easy to slant opinion poll questions to get the answers that you want. I am not saying that this is what Friends of the Earth have done but I would be very interested to know for sure.

Once you get past the headline and first few paragraphs, and we know that that is as far as many people get, Richard Black does admit that 'The Fukushima crisis has come with disturbing imagery - but the statistics suggest little impact' and 'Although the incident has put the issue of nuclear risk high up the news agenda, proponents can point to the fact that so far there has not been any impact on human health other than a few events involving workers at the power station.'

It is my opinion that the BBC have used the Fukushima incident as a way of pushing nuclear safety up the agenda as a way of helping the wind power industry out. The fact that reliance on wind power for 20% or more of power generation would have left the UK short of power on many days this winter is not something that the BBC and its 'expert' correspondents acknowledge, they have an agenda and they will continue to promote that agenda.

An obvious subtext?

It was reported over the weekend that according to a study by the University of Texas, half of men would forgive their female partner's infidelity so long as it was with another woman. I wonder if that percentage would increase if the men were allowed to watch?

What would you do for a million pounds?

You Gov report the findings of a survey:

'Almost a third (31%) of British adults would be photographed naked for a national newspaper if a million pounds was on offer, while nearly one in five (18%) would get well-acquainted with their own company by having no human contact for an entire year.

* 17% would have sex with someone they found ‘physically repulsive’
* 15% would give up one of their kidneys
* While 9% would consider the pale and interesting look and avoid sunlight for twelve months

...

Other options offered in exchange for £1m included playing Russian Roulette (2%), tattooing an advertising slogan on your forehead (2%), cutting off one of your arms (1%) and cutting off one of your legs (0%).

56% of women and 27% of men said that they wouldn’t agree to any of our offered options in exchange for one million.'

So are men 'cheaper' than women?

What is 'having sex'?

The Times of India reports on a Kinsey Institute opinion poll that has some interesting findings:

'95 per cent of respondents would consider penile-vaginal intercourse (PVI) having had sex, but this rate drops to 89 per cent if there is no ejaculation.

81 per cent considered penile-anal intercourse having had sex, with the rate dropping to 77 per cent for men in the youngest age group (18-29), 50 per cent for men in the oldest age group (65 and up) and 67 per cent for women in the oldest age group.

71 per cent and 73 per cent considered oral contact with a partner's genitals (OG), either performing or receiving, as having had sex.

Men in the youngest and oldest age groups were less likely to answer 'yes' compared with the middle two age groups for when they performed OG.

Significantly fewer men in the oldest age group answered 'yes' for PVI (77 per cent). The study has been published in the international health journal Sexual Health.'

Was Bill Clinton asked  for his opinion?

Top UK Political Blogs - Voting

Total Politics Top Political Blogs list has reached 101-200 and I see that this blog has risen from 153 to 110. This is odd as my rise is larger here than in the Right Wing section (59 to 50). Am I to assume that my blog is liked by more non Right Wing associated blog readers than I thought? Or is there another explanation? Either way I am a very happy blogger today; will I have to atone for that tomorrow?

Voting

Total Politics' Top 100 Right Wing Blogs list is out and my NotaSheepMaybeaGoat blog has risen from 59 last year to 50 this year. Not quite the large rise of the previous year (93 to 59) but enough to keep me blogging.

Taking alongside this blog's recent rise to 138 in the Wikio Political blogs list I feel quite a cheerful NotaSheep this morning. I wonder how long that will last; probably until I turn on the Today programme!

Thanks to everyone that voted for me, it is much appreciated.

Ahem... could I have your attention please?

As this blog sinks down the monthly Wikio Political Blogging charts, all but breaking my heart as every months rankings are released; I notice that it is time for Total Politics's blog poll for 2010. It was the surprise appearance of this blog in Iain Dale's 2007 political blogging list, after just a few months of my blogging, that gave me the impetus to take blogging more seriously/waste more time writing instead of working.


So here are some questions that you might be asking regarding voting in this poll along with my answers:

Why should I vote?

If you appreciate this blog; whether for its incisive comments on political matters, for its regular highlighting of the faults of Gordon Brown & the other people who runruin this country every day or even for its regular publishing of photos of a scantily-clad Lily Allen then do take the time to vote for it. The higher this blog appears the more I will post... Is that really an incentive?


How do I vote?

Email your ten favourite blogs (ranked from 1-10) to toptenblogs@totalpolitics.com

Are there any rules?

1. You must vote for your ten favourite blogs and ranks them from 1 (your favourite) to 10 (your tenth favourite).
2. Your votes must be ranked from 1 to 10. Any votes which do not have rankings will not be counted.
3. You MUST include at least FIVE blogs in your list, but please list ten if you can. If you include fewer than five, your vote will not count.
4. Email your vote to toptenblogs@totalpolitics.com
5. Only vote once.
6. Only blogs based in the UK, run by UK residents or based on UK politics are eligible. No blog will be excluded from voting.
7. Anonymous votes left in the comments will not count. You must give a name
8. All votes must be received by midnight on 31 July 2010. Any votes received after that date will not count.


Go on vote, you know you want to...

The Budget aftermath

From listening/watching/reading the BBC's post Budget coverage you would expect the Country to be in a state of rage. However the first post-budget opinion poll (reported in The Sun) shows that 57% of those polled thought the Budget was right for the Country and 43% think that George Osborne was doing a good job. Just remind me what was Gordon Brown's approval rating in April?

The BBC are pushing the Labour narrative for all they are worth, the Conservatives need to lance that festering boil.

Poll Tracker - On the money

As I predicted earlier in the absence of the BBC including BPIX polls in their Poll Tracker the poll they chose as their most recent from last night's three referenced polls was indeed ICM's - that being the only poll that showed the Labour vote increasing. Interesting the Poll Tracker 'Poll of Polls' now shows Conservatives - 35%, Labour - 28%, LibDems - 28%. Figures that underplay the Conservatives latest figures. Does anyone know what formula the BBC use for this 'Poll of Polls' calculation? I presume it is some sort of running average, but over what period and how weighted?

The opinion polls and the BBC

I presume that the BBC will lose interest in opinion polls again as four of the five opinion polls out today/tomorrow show an increased Conservative lead, the other shows it unchanged; and three show Labour in third place. I wonder which poll the BBC's Poll Tracker will have as its latest poll? My money would be on the BPIX poll, but the BBC don't include them (or Angus Reid) in Poll Tracker - I can hear the gnashing of teeth from here - so I suppose it will have to be the ICM poll.

YouGov in The Sunday Times:
Con - 35% - up 1%
Lab - 27% - down 1%
LD - 28% - level

ComRes in The Sunday Mirror/Independent on Sunday
Con - 38% - up 2%
Lab 28% - down 1%
LD - 25% - down 1%

ICM - Sunday Telegraph
Con - 36% - up 3%
Lab - 29% up 1%
LD - 27% - down 3%

Angus Reid in The Sunday Express
Con - 35% - up 2%
Lab - 23% - level
LD - 29% - down 1%

BPIX in The Mail on Sunday
Con - 34% - level
Lab - 27% - up 1%
LD - 30% - level

BBC Poll Watch update expected any time soon?

The latest opinion poll on the BBC's Poll Tracker is still You Gov's poll showing Conservatives 34%, Labour 29% and Lib Dems 28%. I wonder when the BBC will update Poll Tracker to take account of the ComRes poll showing Conservatives on 34%, Lib Dems on 29% and Labour in third on 28%, or the latest You Gov pollshowing Consevatives 35%, LibDems 28% and Labour third on 27% or the latest BPIX poll showing Conservatives on 34%, Lib Dems on 30% and Labour third on 26%. My money is those polls all appearing before this one which will then be the latest poll - MORI showing Conservatives on 36%, Labour on 30% and the Lib Dems on 23%. I wonder how this will be reflected in the 'Poll of Polls'? I am sure that these polls will not affect the BBC/Labour narrative that David Cameron has suffered because of the leaders' debates and that the Lib Dems are gaining at the expense of the Conservatives; after all there is an election to be won...