"The race might be long but only in story books does the tortoise win the hare. Be the hare.Dont even think of winning as a tortoise. "
~Niversphere
Shift Happens
Go for it.
"You have a dream, you got to protect it.. Somebody who can't do it will want to say that you can't... Go for it. Period."
"Dont let anybody tell you, you cant!"
I never gave up my dream to work for myself. Why should I ?
http://forums.sgfunds.com/viewtopic.php?t=5101
"Some people might think that their life is boring and have nothing meaningful to do,they would think that your life is the same and wants to waste your time too"
~Niversphere
Regards,
Niversphere.
Light reading for the weekends
How yarn prices and cotton changed during 2001-2005?
Textile Price Trends
Regards
Niversphere.
CG Tech ::... Spinning more money
CG Techologies is a recently listed company on 31 April 2005 at SG$0.31. Currently its share price is at SG$0.40 as I am writing. However fundamentals of the company definitely has improved significantly and proves irresitible at this low single PE ratio of 4.4XFY06 and 4XFY07. Not to be ignored is the fact that CG Tech is small in comparison to its other listed peers based on market capitialisation. A discount is expected.
As excerpted from their announcements:
CG Technologies Holdings Limited (CG Tech), a leading differentiated polyester product manufacturer, sells its functional PET (Poly Ethylene Terephthalate,(多乙烯对苯二酸盐) chips to the chemical fibre manufacturers and its functional yarn products to the textile manufacturers located in Fujian, Guangdong and Zhejiang Provinces in China. Production facilities are strategically located in Longyan City. The Group’s overall strategy is to consistently focus on research and development to expand the differentiated premium quality and functional product range to meet the fast moving textile industry in the PRC.
CG Tech existing product offerings are :
1) Akali Soluble PolyEthyalone Teraphthalate (PET) chips (April 2006)
2) High Shrinkage PET chips (July 2005)
3) Bright and Semi-dull PET chips (July 2005)
4) Dye Absorbing PET chips (August 2006)
5) Yarn (July 2005)
6) Combed Yarn (May 2005)
As part of its plan to complete its business model by vertical integration of the supply chain and move onto higher margin products, CG Tech moves to offer these new products in the foreseeable future that could be an earning catalyst from FY08 onwards.
New products
1) Polyester Short Fibre (PSF)~ 3Q07
PSF is a key upstream raw material used in CG's cotton yarn business which they currently purchase from suppliers. Due to their intention to expand from 7500 tonnes to 10,000 tonnnes. This equates to an approximate 33% increase in production. Production was slated to commence by 2Q07 but was dragged back a quarter due to this further increase in production volume.
2) Compact Combed Yarn. ~ 4Q07
What i gathered is that combed yarn is a high quality yarn with strength and added softness through the process of "combing" which removes the shortest fibres. Compact Combed Yarn uses a new spinning technique in addition to the combing to produce compact combed yarn which gives a higher gross margin.
Existing production capacity is 48,150 tonnes.By 4Q07, annual production would have increased by 35% to 49850 tonnes.
Take a look at this site for the lastest price trends in the textile industry: http://www.fibre2fashion.com
CG Tech competitors that are listed on SGX are
1) China Sky
2) FibreChem
3) Hongwei
1) China Sky Chemical Fibre ( current price SG$1.21)
China Sky aims to achieve an annual production of 88,000 tonnes. And they had recently completed a new facility to house their production of Air Textured and Drawn Textured yarn in 1H07.
They also began construction of facilities to produce high end Nylon Super Resilient Full Drawn (SR-FDY) and High Oriented Yarn (SR HDY)expected in 1H07.
China Sky possesses many technical capabilities which acts as technical barriers to entry. They are also the only manufacturer in China and second in the world capable of manufacturing these high end products. Which is clearly impressive. But one has to wonder how substainable is this technological edge they are enjoying now?
2) FibreChem ( current price at SG$1.86)
Recently announced a new contract with a distributor to supply 450,000 yards of microfibre synthetic leather every month starting from this month. (Dec 2006).
Their product offering includes differentiated nylon-polyester bicomponent fibre, core shealth fibre and intermediate non-woven fabric.
Other listed peers are :
1) Baoding Swan
2) Dandong Chemical Fibre
3) Guandong Kaiping Chunhui Co.
4) Jilin Chemical Fibre
5) Jiangsu Jianan
6) Liaoyuan Deheng
7) target=blank>Nanjing Chemical Fibre
8) Searrainbow Holdings
9) Shangdong Helon
10)Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fibre
11)Xinjiang Chemical Fibre
CG Tech is obviously a small player in comparison based on market capital. CG Tech has a market cap of around 42.9 USD which is the smallest among the companies mentioned above. With peer China Sky Chemical Fibre almost 10 times as big than CG Tech based on market capital.
Management reiterated that they expect FY06 to rise by 50%. Since 9 months of contribution to net profits FY06 is 58.7%. Conservatively, I decreased 4Q contribution and conclude an EPS of 9.4 cents for FY06. I learnt the lesson from past experience to be especially conservative for the final 4Q performance and not to be misled by the past 3Q.
I did some bold adjustments (for obvious reasons) to my 3-stage DCF discount model using growth rate 20% for (1-5) years , 10% for (6-10) years and 5% (11-15) years with a terminal growth rate of 1% only. Coupled with a higher discount rate of 20% and margin of safety 30%. Assuming no debt and shares outstanding stays constant. I derived a fair value of $0.87 cents which means that CG Tech gives a terrific 117% upside potential.
Possible consolidation in the industry could make CG Tech an attractive proposition to acquire for organic growth by larger companies but this is just pure speculation for now.
Regards
Niversphere.
Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.
Sharing my experience ::... Niversphere
This article is in response of this article that was posted online I found on the link below. 20-year-old Lydia Khan mentioned that at under-21 it gives her some form of headstart. It did surface some personal experience that I want to share.
When I was still in junior college studying for my 'A' levels. My bank account is often found to be below the current cut-off at $500. Back then, there was no such penalty for administrative charges. The dark blue POSB book even had the words
"Guaranteed by the Government" in gold below. In fact, it was so bad, I might even had just $1 dollar in the account at times. I have a doting mother who gave me small top-ups to make the account look more decent.
I came from a very traditional family where my parents probably watched too many TV dramas where people in TV boxes often commit suicide because of gambling or stock market mistakes or possibly a combination of both. I am surprised myself why I was not "brain-washed" but I am always an independent thinker which strong views on many issues. Had it been, I definitely would not be writing this blog entry now. My favourite drama series remains 大时代 which featured stock trading as a background story. "有很多人玩股票， 但又有多少人真正懂股票是设么。”one of many favourite quotes I remembered from the show.
Straight after I left college and was waiting for enlistment to the army, I worked full time at NTUC as a storehand. For the uninitiated, storehand's responsibilities involved moving the roll cages from the loading bay to the store room and from the store you replenish all the stuff on to the shelves. I worked there full time and even had a month's free training from them. So you can say I am a qualified storehand. Hahaha. Anyway the pay check then was like SG$600 after minus the CPF contribution. For the first time in my young life had I seen my account breached the 4 digit mark. That really kicked off the savings habit. See here. I am very stingy or thrify with my expenses cause I was not working at all. The most regretful piece of electronics I bought was the Motorola Startec X which caused me a cool thousand dollars. Very hard to imagine that in the years to come, phones costing half or less comes with 2MP cameras. A thousand dollars now would probably get you the lastest smartphone WIFI enabled phone on the market. I took that painful lesson very seriously. Any mistake you make can be painful.
I guessed I am lucky, seriously lucky not to lose my pants then. Back then no one tells me how you can make your money work harder for you and whats the proper way. I lost my way and placed soccer bets every other day when I was in the army. Things turned wrong when people turned to you for soccer tips. Gamblers develop amnesia better than anyone. They are optimist in a way cause they only remember their winnings and not their losses. I confess I made a bit of money from these activities but i credit it to me being kiasi and kiasu and not losing my mind placing huge bets. In fact my bets dont go above SG$500 in a single day ever. But seriously, gambling is just a mindless game where no amount of analysis can get you the winning. Now i only place small bets or no bets at all(i am trying). Cause you have to be very clear in your mind that investing and gambling involves different mindsets and mentality. Once you are confused, the TV drama could really be reality TV then. Now soccer betting is nothing really than a conversation starter, probably due to the "notorious" repututation I built up myself. Hahaha.
My first involvement in investing was when my secondary school friend, Benny started working as an independent financial advisor for a company in Raffles Place. He sold me the idea of making my money work harder for me. For a long while I was interested in this idea but I was lost. As per all FA they show you charts and sell you the idea of being financially independent. Definitely nice to be financially independent but I am still very far from it. I was this young phunk back then, and got hooked on. The surcharges were high and set me back by a few hundred before I even got 1 cent from it. All the downside risk is on you. I started collected monthly review reports in pdf. I printed them out filed them nicely in a folder. Does anyone do this to a analyst report which changed words as fast as they breathe? But seriously, there was nothing much mentioned in these reports just occasionally they will mention they add this onto the portfolio or dropped this company. Nothing much behind the reason why. There was the management fees that were involved if the trust did performed well enough annually or even when they dont do well. Craps. This initial investment did perform fantastically well and outperformed my expectations on them but I terminated nonetheless cause I feel out of control of my own finance. I wanted more control and liquidity on my hands and not because I was greedy for profits. One rather annoying problem of buying any kind of plans from your friends is they change jobs or company throughout their career. So I always find myself tagged with this another guy and received email/snail mail notifications about this change from the company. So much for friends ya. I always managed a smile when I see similar scenario at starbucks and macdonalds. Except now they carry lightweight laptops and not plastic folders with printouts.
Real investing in shares started off with this good friend of mine, Savvy Poh(which as a sign of gratitude is called Niversphere ::.. The Savvy Investor, now you know) which I met in University. He started me off on the idea of value investing and even offered me access to a paid investment forum. He helped me opened my first trading account and CDP. He is really such a nice guy and is open to my questions freely. He shared with me unselfishly all his knowledge on investing. I remembered asking him through the phone one damn stupid question when I entered a trade 10000 is 10000 lots or 10000 shares. Of cause there is never too stupid question to ask, only the dumb smart aleck dont ask questions. I am always open to people asking me simple terms like CD, dividend payout, PE ratio and EPS etc. Of cause the parallels end there between me and him as I got involved into heavy reading from the investment greats books and gaining market experience. Refining my investment philosophy as time progresses and of cause I do make investing mistakes. Companies like automated touchstone(ATM) when I was sold onto the idea of ATM machines. Not researching enough and investing out of competence has a price to pay when I did further research on it and realise how much of a "gem" I thought I discovered. I was lucky to escape with some significantly decreased capital I had. If you dont really know much about a company but is sold on the idea by someone, you might still profit but its definitely luck and not by your own merit. That would be then no difference to gambling. How long can you escape from this ? Get yourself properly educated in investing, do it right and do it correctly. Nothing comes easily, and considerable efforts and time I had put in. People like to envy successful people but they never fancy the hard work that they had sacrificed. If you put in the same or double hard work they had put into , you have a higher chance of being successful yourself. Of course success is relative. I am working on it still, hard work, hard work, a long journey still awaits me. Be a long term winner and not a short term winner.
To conclude. Investing in stocks early does not give you a real headstart, but investing in your mind before investing gives you the winner's edge!
News excerpted from http://sg.news.yahoo.com/061213/5/singapore246981.html
New website, seminars to teach students financial investments
SINGAPORE: Students can soon learn to trade in stocks and shares, and make real money in the process.
A competition organised by the three local universities - NUS, NTU and SMU - aims to do just that.
Opening next week, it involves trading mock shares with the best traders and winning cash prizes.
Not everybody knows how to trade in stocks and shares.
So a series of seminars have been organised to educate students on how to invest their money.
The students have three seminars to get to grips with the basics.
After the seminars finish next week, the students will be given $100,000 in virtual money to trade in four weeks.
The most successful traders can earn prize money ranging from $300 to $2,000.
Some 1,200 students from junior colleges and the universities have signed up for the seminars.
20-year-old Lydia Khan, an Accountancy undergraduate at SMU, said: "I'm under 21 and I think most of the other people here (in the seminars) are under 21 too. So this is something to get us started before we turn 21. It kind of gives you a head start."
Which is exactly the point of the competition - to give new investors some practical financial advice.
Lim Swee Say, Minister in the Prime Minister's Office, said: "This is a good starting point because by the time they have to learn the painful lesson of (losing) real money in the real stock exchange, for some of them, it can become too late or too painful. The problem is many of the naive investors adopt the concept of speculation. They thought they can outsmart Mr Market all the time."
So the organisers hope that once the competition finishes, the students will come out better equipped to invest in the financial markets. - CNA/ir
Do they look the same to you ?
iSqueez is a totally OSIM invention that incorporates the calf massage. Why would such a total imitation be allowed?
1. Amazon Calf and Foot Massager
2. OSIM iSqueez Calf and Foot Massager
Regards
Niversphere.
Structured Products
Hi readers,
I believe structured products have been frequently covered as risky. If ever a FP approaches you an sells you something. First ask if you can use your CPF to invest. If the answer is NO, they are likely to be selling you structured products. CPF does not allows that.
A link is provided below if you have doubts and questions:
http://www.income.coop/insurance/faq/faq-StrucProdRisk.asp
Regards
Niversphere.
FJ Benjamin ::..
FJ Benjamin first caught my eye when Oldman from ShareInvestor.com had it in his portfolio. He is one of the founders of ShareInvestor.com. The retail business model of FJ Benjamin interested me. Bearing in mind that the retail concept is a highly competitive industry for any company to be in,be it Hongguo, Osim or Beauty China.
At that point of time, there were many companies that offered better margin of safety and similar attractive business models, so FJ Benjamin was not added to my portfolio.
Since then, FJ Benjamin has gained much attention from fellow investors as reflected by its share price appreciation. Investors whom have had been following the developments of this company would had been impressed. The latest development being the divestment of their office building for $37 million dollars.
FJ Benjamin did a great job with their website with beautiful girls graphics to fit their image of a luxury goods/service provider. So for once I am not tempted to introduce this company using plain text. Do click on the links below if you are interested.
Links:
FJ Benjamin Website
St James Power Station
FJ Benjamin Latest FY Results
- Another exciting development involved FJ Benjamin. This development though exciting as its well positioned near Vivocity, HabourFront and Sentosa IR is one of the risk I would like to highlight. Local clubbing scene is highly competitive and fun seekers usually flock to the latest scene on the island. Can this business venture substainable? I am not sure about that. Akin to many people sharing one curry puff for the time being. The crowd draw factor has to be strong.
Based on DCF discount factor,I derived a rough estimate of the intrinsic value of FJ Benjamin as S$0.79 using terminal growth rate of 20.0% and 5% discount factor. This implies that FJ Benjamin is roughly estimated to be 38.3% undervalued based on current share price of S$0.57.
I took into account of its dividend payout which I would expect to continue or further improve. For this first and final dividend payout would be 2.4 cents which woeks out to be around 4.2% based on the current share price of 57 cents. Fair enough for me.
Regards
Niversphere.
Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.
Cheers
Niversphere.
What it takes to be great
Article excerpted from CNNMoney.com From the October 30, 2006 issue
Research now shows that the lack of natural talent is irrelevant to great success. The secret? Painful and demanding practice and hard work
By Geoffrey Colvin, senior editor-at-large
October 19 2006: 3:14 PM EDT
(Fortune Magazine) -- What makes Tiger Woods great? What made Berkshire Hathaway (Charts) Chairman Warren Buffett the world's premier investor? We think we know: Each was a natural who came into the world with a gift for doing exactly what he ended up doing. As Buffett told Fortune not long ago, he was "wired at birth to allocate capital." It's a one-in-a-million thing. You've got it - or you don't.
Well, folks, it's not so simple. For one thing, you do not possess a natural gift for a certain job, because targeted natural gifts don't exist. (Sorry, Warren.) You are not a born CEO or investor or chess grandmaster. You will achieve greatness only through an enormous amount of hard work over many years. And not just any hard work, but work of a particular type that's demanding and painful.
Buffett, for instance, is famed for his discipline and the hours he spends studying financial statements of potential investment targets. The good news is that your lack of a natural gift is irrelevant - talent has little or nothing to do with greatness. You can make yourself into any number of things, and you can even make yourself great.
Scientific experts are producing remarkably consistent findings across a wide array of fields. Understand that talent doesn't mean intelligence, motivation or personality traits. It's an innate ability to do some specific activity especially well. British-based researchers Michael J. Howe, Jane W. Davidson and John A. Sluboda conclude in an extensive study, "The evidence we have surveyed ... does not support the [notion that] excelling is a consequence of possessing innate gifts."
To see how the researchers could reach such a conclusion, consider the problem they were trying to solve. In virtually every field of endeavor, most people learn quickly at first, then more slowly and then stop developing completely. Yet a few do improve for years and even decades, and go on to greatness.
The irresistible question - the "fundamental challenge" for researchers in this field, says the most prominent of them, professor K. Anders Ericsson of Florida State University - is, Why? How are certain people able to go on improving? The answers begin with consistent observations about great performers in many fields.
Scientists worldwide have conducted scores of studies since the 1993 publication of a landmark paper by Ericsson and two colleagues, many focusing on sports, music and chess, in which performance is relatively easy to measure and plot over time. But plenty of additional studies have also examined other fields, including business.
No substitute for hard work
The first major conclusion is that nobody is great without work. It's nice to believe that if you find the field where you're naturally gifted, you'll be great from day one, but it doesn't happen. There's no evidence of high-level performance without experience or practice.
Reinforcing that no-free-lunch finding is vast evidence that even the most accomplished people need around ten years of hard work before becoming world-class, a pattern so well established researchers call it the ten-year rule.
What about Bobby Fischer, who became a chess grandmaster at 16? Turns out the rule holds: He'd had nine years of intensive study. And as John Horn of the University of Southern California and Hiromi Masunaga of California State University observe, "The ten-year rule represents a very rough estimate, and most researchers regard it as a minimum, not an average." In many fields (music, literature) elite performers need 20 or 30 years' experience before hitting their zenith.
So greatness isn't handed to anyone; it requires a lot of hard work. Yet that isn't enough, since many people work hard for decades without approaching greatness or even getting significantly better. What's missing?
Practice makes perfect
The best people in any field are those who devote the most hours to what the researchers call "deliberate practice." It's activity that's explicitly intended to improve performance, that reaches for objectives just beyond one's level of competence, provides feedback on results and involves high levels of repetition.
For example: Simply hitting a bucket of balls is not deliberate practice, which is why most golfers don't get better. Hitting an eight-iron 300 times with a goal of leaving the ball within 20 feet of the pin 80 percent of the time, continually observing results and making appropriate adjustments, and doing that for hours every day - that's deliberate practice.
Consistency is crucial. As Ericsson notes, "Elite performers in many diverse domains have been found to practice, on the average, roughly the same amount every day, including weekends."
Evidence crosses a remarkable range of fields. In a study of 20-year-old violinists by Ericsson and colleagues, the best group (judged by conservatory teachers) averaged 10,000 hours of deliberate practice over their lives; the next-best averaged 7,500 hours; and the next, 5,000. It's the same story in surgery, insurance sales, and virtually every sport. More deliberate practice equals better performance. Tons of it equals great performance.
The skeptics
Not all researchers are totally onboard with the myth-of-talent hypothesis, though their objections go to its edges rather than its center. For one thing, there are the intangibles. Two athletes might work equally hard, but what explains the ability of New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to perform at a higher level in the last two minutes of a game?
Researchers also note, for example, child prodigies who could speak, read or play music at an unusually early age. But on investigation those cases generally include highly involved parents. And many prodigies do not go on to greatness in their early field, while great performers include many who showed no special early aptitude.
Certainly some important traits are partly inherited, such as physical size and particular measures of intelligence, but those influence what a person doesn't do more than what he does; a five-footer will never be an NFL lineman, and a seven-footer will never be an Olympic gymnast. Even those restrictions are less severe than you'd expect: Ericsson notes, "Some international chess masters have IQs in the 90s." The more research that's done, the more solid the deliberate-practice model becomes.
Real-world examples
All this scholarly research is simply evidence for what great performers have been showing us for years. To take a handful of examples: Winston Churchill, one of the 20th century's greatest orators, practiced his speeches compulsively. Vladimir Horowitz supposedly said, "If I don't practice for a day, I know it. If I don't practice for two days, my wife knows it. If I don't practice for three days, the world knows it." He was certainly a demon practicer, but the same quote has been attributed to world-class musicians like Ignace Paderewski and Luciano Pavarotti.
Many great athletes are legendary for the brutal discipline of their practice routines. In basketball, Michael Jordan practiced intensely beyond the already punishing team practices. (Had Jordan possessed some mammoth natural gift specifically for basketball, it seems unlikely he'd have been cut from his high school team.)
In football, all-time-great receiver Jerry Rice - passed up by 15 teams because they considered him too slow - practiced so hard that other players would get sick trying to keep up.
Tiger Woods is a textbook example of what the research shows. Because his father introduced him to golf at an extremely early age - 18 months - and encouraged him to practice intensively, Woods had racked up at least 15 years of practice by the time he became the youngest-ever winner of the U.S. Amateur Championship, at age 18. Also in line with the findings, he has never stopped trying to improve, devoting many hours a day to conditioning and practice, even remaking his swing twice because that's what it took to get even better.
The business side
The evidence, scientific as well as anecdotal, seems overwhelmingly in favor of deliberate practice as the source of great performance. Just one problem: How do you practice business? Many elements of business, in fact, are directly practicable. Presenting, negotiating, delivering evaluations, deciphering financial statements - you can practice them all.
Still, they aren't the essence of great managerial performance. That requires making judgments and decisions with imperfect information in an uncertain environment, interacting with people, seeking information - can you practice those things too? You can, though not in the way you would practice a Chopin etude.
Instead, it's all about how you do what you're already doing - you create the practice in your work, which requires a few critical changes. The first is going at any task with a new goal: Instead of merely trying to get it done, you aim to get better at it.
Report writing involves finding information, analyzing it and presenting it - each an improvable skill. Chairing a board meeting requires understanding the company's strategy in the deepest way, forming a coherent view of coming market changes and setting a tone for the discussion. Anything that anyone does at work, from the most basic task to the most exalted, is an improvable skill.
Adopting a new mindset
Armed with that mindset, people go at a job in a new way. Research shows they process information more deeply and retain it longer. They want more information on what they're doing and seek other perspectives. They adopt a longer-term point of view. In the activity itself, the mindset persists. You aren't just doing the job, you're explicitly trying to get better at it in the larger sense.
Again, research shows that this difference in mental approach is vital. For example, when amateur singers take a singing lesson, they experience it as fun, a release of tension. But for professional singers, it's the opposite: They increase their concentration and focus on improving their performance during the lesson. Same activity, different mindset.
Feedback is crucial, and getting it should be no problem in business. Yet most people don't seek it; they just wait for it, half hoping it won't come. Without it, as Goldman Sachs leadership-development chief Steve Kerr says, "it's as if you're bowling through a curtain that comes down to knee level. If you don't know how successful you are, two things happen: One, you don't get any better, and two, you stop caring." In some companies, like General Electric, frequent feedback is part of the culture. If you aren't lucky enough to get that, seek it out.
Be the ball
Through the whole process, one of your goals is to build what the researchers call "mental models of your business" - pictures of how the elements fit together and influence one another. The more you work on it, the larger your mental models will become and the better your performance will grow.
Andy Grove could keep a model of a whole world-changing technology industry in his head and adapt Intel (Charts) as needed. Bill Gates, Microsoft's (Charts) founder, had the same knack: He could see at the dawn of the PC that his goal of a computer on every desk was realistic and would create an unimaginably large market. John D. Rockefeller, too, saw ahead when the world-changing new industry was oil. Napoleon was perhaps the greatest ever. He could not only hold all the elements of a vast battle in his mind but, more important, could also respond quickly when they shifted in unexpected ways.
That's a lot to focus on for the benefits of deliberate practice - and worthless without one more requirement: Do it regularly, not sporadically.
Why?
For most people, work is hard enough without pushing even harder. Those extra steps are so difficult and painful they almost never get done. That's the way it must be. If great performance were easy, it wouldn't be rare. Which leads to possibly the deepest question about greatness. While experts understand an enormous amount about the behavior that produces great performance, they understand very little about where that behavior comes from.
The authors of one study conclude, "We still do not know which factors encourage individuals to engage in deliberate practice." Or as University of Michigan business school professor Noel Tichy puts it after 30 years of working with managers, "Some people are much more motivated than others, and that's the existential question I cannot answer - why."
The critical reality is that we are not hostage to some naturally granted level of talent. We can make ourselves what we will. Strangely, that idea is not popular. People hate abandoning the notion that they would coast to fame and riches if they found their talent. But that view is tragically constraining, because when they hit life's inevitable bumps in the road, they conclude that they just aren't gifted and give up.
Maybe we can't expect most people to achieve greatness. It's just too demanding. But the striking, liberating news is that greatness isn't reserved for a preordained few. It is available to you and to everyone.
Find this article at:
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006
/10/30/8391794/index.htm?postversion=2006101715
Are you proactive?
Just a short video.
"..By not making a choice, someone will make a choice for you ..."
Double Top Formation.
As I was browsing for updated information, I came across the STI index graph. Instinctively, that was a double top formation i thought.
If you are interested about the double top chart pattern, please visit Click here .
Coincidentally, Yahoo! Finance removed their historical records of the STI index to just days. A conspiracy plot ?
Regards
Niversphere.
Benq Siemens bit the dust.
Munich, Sep 28, 2006 | BenQ announced today in Taipei that there will be no further payments to BenQ Mobile GmbH & Co OHG.. Both revenue and margin development will fall far short of expectations in the important Christmas quarter. Due to the discontinuation of further financial support from the parent company, BenQ, and the resulting lack of liquidity and implicated disruption to business, BenQ Mobile in Germany will file for insolvency at the local court in Munich within the next few days.
Full Article
A Siemens director once commented to one of his staff that he was slightly "disappointed" that he realised employees are not using Benq Siemens phone after an earlier observation while taking the lift.
Let me ask a few questions. How would Ronaldo fit into their marketing strategy ? And the advertisement was rather dark with the emphasis on slightly dimmed secondary colored bouncing lights. Worse is they multiple the dots. Where was there any emphasis on the cool, fun or classy intangible benefits of the marketed phone. No focus, no theme! I always held high regard for the marketing provess of the taiwanese, but this was a disaster! Looking at those buses transiting in the streets of Singapore, i see only a dark pock dotted bus. Ugly.
Sony and Ericsson showed how a similar merger would had worked.
Same as Creative did, mentioning Apple all the way throughout their campaign giving Apple free advertisement.I never once heard Steve Jobs mentioned Creative ever. Silence is golden and in this case .... smart.
I observed that Europeans are not stickies for phone design but more on the functionality of their phones. Asians on the other hand, wanted the best of both worlds. Functionality and good design.(Just a personal observation)
Samsung, Panasonic and Motorola(strong presence in Asia) introduced the slimmest phones to the world. Sony the walkman phone.The coolest phones models possibly in Japan marrying technology with style. I dont wish to mention some sliver brick phone model that has a harddisk in it. I understand that the design is big to accomodate the feature of a high capacity storage. Enough said, functionality over design features.
Customers are thinkers. Just what are they doing.
Cheers
Niversphere.
January Effect ?
"Stocks in general and small stocks in particular have historically generated abnormally high returns during the month of January.
According to Robert Haugen and Philippe Jorion, "The January effect is, perhaps the best-known example of anomalous behavior in security markets throughout the world."
The January Effect is particularly intriguing because it doesn't appear to be diminishing despite being well known and publicized for nearly two decades.
Theoretically an anomaly should disappear as traders attempt to take advantage of it in advance. Additionally, many have argued that some of the other anomalies occur primarily or entirely during the month of January (See Interrelationships).
The bottom line is that January has historically been the best month to be invested in stocks."
Quoting an article, I saw on my friend's blog.I am convinced that the january effect does not apply in local context based on past years experience. In fact, the volatility of September and August where projections of the next year are made is nearer to the truth for that matter.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Negatives on LongCheer
Negatives:
1) Does not possess its own brand.
2) Currently one of the highest ROE design house, expect more competition.
3) Management holds a lower value of its shares compared to shareholders.
4) Major customers are susceptible to change in consumer tastes, as evident in TechFaithWireless with NEC( as a result of insulting the Chinks).
5) Major customers are small in comparison but can be view both negative and positively.
6) Need to spend $ to purchase new technology know how.
7) Target customers at the lower end faces intensified competition from smaller companies.
8) Inability to break through to the US and European market.
9) Went to linux development without much success.
10) Rapid increase in staff
11) Shorter product cycle
12) Increase in Yuan value may adversely affect the bottomline of LongCheer.
...
Regards
Niversphere.
Longcheer And SavaJe Sign Strategic Agreement To Bring Java-Based Mobile Handsets To Chinese And European Markets
Leading Chinese Handset Designer Looks To Advance Java-Based Operating Platform To Introduce Richer User Experience and Expedite Product DevelopmentChelmsford, MA – September 25, 2006 – SavaJe Technologies, developers of the most open, Java® technology-based mobile operating platform, and Longcheer Technology Limited, a leading Chinese mobile handset designer, today announced a strategic agreement aimed at bringing Java-based devices to markets in China and Europe. Longcheer Technology, a wholly owned subsidiary of Longcheer Holdings Limited, intends to begin shipping devices based on the SavaJe Mobile Platform™ as early as Q4 2006 in China.
With more than 425 million mobile users, China is the world’s largest and fastest growing mobile market. The country will also soon license carriers for third-generation (3G) wireless, a move that industry analysts estimate will attract 130 million subscribers by 2010. The SavaJe Mobile Platform™ is ideal for 3G’s advanced services, providing users with easy-to-use and feature-rich capabilities, while radically simplifying and accelerating handset development for designers and manufactures.Longcheer is one of the top independent mobile handset design houses in China, shipping over 5.7 million units in its financial year ended 30 June 2006.
The company offers a complete suite of hardware, software and product design solutions to major Chinese telecommunications companies, which includes TCL, Konka, Gionee and ZTE. The SavaJe Mobile Platform enables operators and handset manufacturers to rapidly brand and customize mobile handsets that deliver high performance and advanced features, while shortening product time-to-market due to the cross-platform benefits of the Java environment.Under the agreement, Longcheer and SavaJe will collaborate in the development and commercial deployment of two devices, S101 and S201, each based on the SavaJe Mobile Platform. Highlights of Longcheer’s S101 – expected to ship to PRC and European markets in Q4 2006 – will include a new touch screen user experience design with Chinese handwriting recognition and character entry, as well as integration with music download service, beeweeb. The Longcheer S201 – expected to ship to Chinese and European markets in 2007 – will feature a new design and form factor, and extensive user experience customization to accommodate a variety of worldwide mobile operators.
SavaJe and Longcheer have also formalized a number of initiatives to support the development of the S101 and S201 devices, as well as their introduction to global markets. Included in these activities is the sharing of technology resources, joint sales and marketing programs, cooperative software research and development, and co-development of a SavaJe variant with a Linux kernel.“We see increasing global demand for our mobile devices, and in SavaJe, we’ve found a platform to facilitate the rapid development of an exciting, high quality product,” said Dr. Du Junhong, CEO of Longcheer. “The rich Java environment provides a unique user experience and the ability for operators to truly distinguish themselves, while decreased development time will allow us to continue bringing products to market faster and at a lower cost. Also, SavaJe’s global operator sales team holds strong partnerships with innovators such as Vodafone and others; these are relationships that we feel will expedite our handset deployment to markets in Europe, America and elsewhere.”“Longcheer has enjoyed tremendous success in the past few years, and by adopting SavaJe’s technology, they have again proven they understand the desires of consumers and how to best respond to market dynamics,” said Gregory Koss, CEO of SavaJe Technologies. “Their selection of the SavaJe Mobile Platform is further validation of the competitive advantage we are able to offer operators and handset manufacturers worldwide.”
About Longcheer Holdings LimitedBased in Shanghai and listed on the Singapore Exchange Mainboard, Longcheer Holdings Limited is amongst China's top five mobile phone design solutions providers. The company offers a complete suite of hardware, software and product design solutions to major Chinese telecommunications companies. With current staff strength of more than 700, of which more than 60 percent are engaged in research and development, Longcheer has proven abilities to deliver innovative and cost-effective design solutions to its clients. The company has been named the 14th fastest growing technology company in China by Deloitte in 2005.
About SavaJe TechnologiesSavaJe Technologies delivers the Mobile Java Experience™. The company’s SavaJe Mobile Platform™ radically simplifies and accelerates the development of highly customizable, richly branded and secure user interfaces across mobile feature phone handsets. This enables operators and manufacturers for the first time to fully exploit the branding, marketing and revenue potential of mobile phones. SavaJe is backed by leading venture capital firms, including Investcorp, VantagePoint Venture Partners, Ridgewood Capital, RRE Ventures and New Venture Partners, as well as the strategic investment arms of Vodafone, T-Mobile and Orange. SavaJe maintains global headquarters in Chelmsford, Mass. with offices in Palo Alto, CA, Cambridge, U.K, Beijing, China and Seoul, Korea.
Source: SavaJe Technologies
Singapore listed companies with interest in Thailand
| Company | Exposure in Thailand |
| SingTel | S$870m stake in AIS which contributes 7% of profit |
| DBS | Holds stakes of about 16% in TMB Bank and a 40% stake in Capital OK Company. TMB was last traded at THB3.24 and the stake is estimated to be worth about S$362m. |
| UOB | Wholly owns UOB Thai, which delivered net profits of S$42m in 1H06 versus S$882m for UOB (excluding exceptional gains). |
| Thai Beverage | Beer and beverage maker |
| City Developments | 1 project there |
| CapitaLand | 40% JV interest worth about S$300m |
| Keppel Land | 2 projects in Thailand of about 400 units |
| Total Access Comm | Mobile operator |
| Keppel Corp | Infrastructure interest |
| Ascott Group | Runs 5 serviced apartments in Thailand |
| UTAC | UTAC Thailand chip-testing facility |
| Magnecomp | Manufacturing facility |
| Micro-Mechanics | Manufacturing facility |
| Jackspeed | Exposure via a automotive unit in Thailand |
| Singapore Petrol Corp | Office/operations |
| Kim Eng Holdings | Stockbroking operation in Thailand |
| ECS Holdings | Distribution business |
| GP Batteries | Sales office |
| KS Energy | Sales office |
| Tat Hong | Crane rental business |
| Mediflex | Sources latex from Thailand |
The fifteen points to look for a Common Stock .
1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make a possible sizable increase in sales for at least several years?
2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited?
3. How effective are the company’s research and development efforts in relation to its size?
4. Does the company have an above average sales organization?
5. Does the company have a worthwhile profit margin?
6. What is the company doing to maintain or improve profit margins?
7. Does the company have outstanding labor and personnel relations?
8. Does the company have outstanding executive relations?
9. Does the company have depth to its management?
10. How good are the company’s cost analysis and accounting controls?
11. Are there other aspects of the business, somewhat peculiar to the industry involved, which will give the investor clues as to how outstanding the company may be in relation to its competitors?
12. Does the company have a short range or long range outlook in regards to profits?
13. In the foreseeable future will the growth of the company require sufficient equity financing so that the larger number of shares then outstanding will largely cancel the existing stockholders’ benefit from this anticipated growth?
14. Does the management talk freely to investors about its affairs when things are going well but ‘clam up’ when troubles and disappointments occur?
15. Does the management have a management of unquestionable integrity?
Reply to Reader on LongCheer
Hi niversphere:
This is XXXXX25, anyway, in your own opinions, what else must I look at
into investing into a particular company?
Like what queen mention, Longcheers seems to be in a very competitive
industry. Have you any idea how are they going to increase revenue and
profit?
I would appreciate if you could give me some pointers where to look for
relevant information?
Thanks
Regards
XXXXX25
My Reply: >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
My Investment Philosophy
All investors should have an investment philosophy and here are mine as follows :
1. A concentrated portfolio of no more than 5 holdings at anytime.
2. Business must be highly scalable. This simply means that the company must offer me good growth in its own core business.
3. Management must be ambitious and capable to lead the helm to bring the company to greater heights. Setting up a business and growing the company are completely different issues and challenges to me.
4. Set high barriers to entry. Having high barriers to entry to me is not that important as it's probably pertained to the industry that the company is in. Ability to set up high barriers to entry is of greater importance to me.
5. Company must have its own R&D team. Needless to say, when we buy into a company, we buy into its future and not its past. R&D is a must to stay ahead of competition.
6. Business should be concentrated on its core business. Speaks for itself .
7. Good mix of products with a ready new line of products coming up.
8. Potential to be a multi-bagger.
9. Company must have a positive cash flow and preferably free cash flow.
10. A market leader in its own industry.
11. Ethical investing. No live stocks, gambling or moral degrading companies
LongCheer operates in a competitive industry which is a characteristic of a growing industry. Basic micro economics determines that common profits to be earn in the long run as competitors come into play and the industry develops from its growth stage, developed stage to its matured stage.
As LongCheer does not have an active Investor Relations site. Finding relevant secondary information would be a little more difficult. Try finding them on www.baidu.com
Management has reiterated their ambition to expand to the US phone market. Currently only those listed in US like TechFaithWireless has a presence in the US market. Check www.engadget.com
Had you done the market share research (see my previous post with a link) on LongCheer. You would realized that the market share of LongCheers' customers are small. This works both ways, either you can see it as great potential for growth or otherwise.
Take TechFaithWireless for example, their japanese customer(3 letters) had embedded an "insult" message in its phone dictionary selling in the Chinese market. Naturally, as expected their market share decreased and TechFaithWireless' performance affected as well.
It goes to show the dependency relationship between design houses and its key customers.
Management has since lowered shareholders expectations since it last result release and is seen as a smart move. Common sense dictates that revenue growth cannot continue at 3 digit growth. I would expect YoY and QoQ decrease in percentage increase, margins lowered as more competitions sets in the lower tier, but not a decrease in revenue.
Cheers
Niversphere.
*XXXXX25: Edited
Investment success like the masters
George Soros and Warren Buffett are the world's most successful investors. Can ordinary investors learn anything from their investment habits? John McCrone finds out.
Two more different approaches to investing could hardly be imagined. One plays the markets, the other ignores them. One can be in and out of deals over a weekend, the other likes to buy and hold forever.
Yet the pair are the world's most successful investors. Some may have more wealth from starting businesses or inheriting riches, but none – till corporate raider Carl Icahn finally snuck into their ranks in 2004 – have earned more from wheeler-dealing in the markets.
Warren Buffett, a 76-year-old from Omaha in midwest America, has made more than US$44 billion (NZ$69 billion) with his Berkshire Hathaway Group through an uncanny knack for spotting bargain companies.
Mr Buffett has averaged 25 per cent a year growth since he first started managing funds in 1956, having just one losing year compared with the 13 years of negative returns in the United States stockmarkets.
George Soros, a Hungarian Jew born in the same year just 18 days apart from Mr Buffett, has amassed a more modest US$7 billion, having started rather later in his career as a speculator in the currency and futures markets with his Quantum Funds.
Mr Soros – the man who broke the Bank of England when he gambled on the devaluation of the pound in 1992 – has averaged a return of over 28 per cent a year and $1000 invested with him in 1969 would have been turned into $5 million today.
Can the ordinary investor learn anything from the stories of these two? Australian investment newsletter writer Mark Tier thinks so.
........................
For the full article
Cheers
Niversphere.
Steve Irwin
I will remember Steve Irwin. Steve Irwin affectionately known as the Crocodile Hunter was nothing of a hunter himself but a naturalist and an environmentalist. He gets across his preserving wildlife and embracing Nature through its own humourous ways. I remembered in one of his interviews with Animal Planet, he mentioned that it was probably his expressive facial features that captured the audience attention and he was proud and honoured to be doing the job he is doing now. He mentioned that if he were to be ever killed by a crocodile 'Crikey' would be undoing all the work he has done so far.
From the videos that he shot, I can sense the kind of passion and respect that he has for his job. Climbing sandy dunes and hills in the outback. I remembered there was a scene where he got his hand injured after falling from the hill and got stabbed by a thorn in his hand. He bravely plucked it out and was professional in carrying on with the show. That really was professionism and bravery.
His family oriented behaviour by getting his whole family involved. Being a busy man with a thick schedule to meet is not an easy task. I can see his affections for his wife, the trust and understanding between man and wife. He brought along his little girl on several episodes.
All the work he has done was for wildlife.
I am deeply saddened by his death. To end at such a relative young age of 44. A man carrying out noble deeds. Life is cruel and sometimes can be unfair. I hope his work would be carried on and his messages to the world about his work be remembered by all.
Steve Irwin, I will remember you always.
Regards
Niversphere.
YouCan Product Testing
Bought some YouCan products after some keen recommendation from readers of my blog. I adopted the scuttlebutt approach on both OSIM and Want Want before and now for YouCan.
This is the all that was displayed at my local supermart. Visually counting, there are only 4 types of YouCan products on display. A tad disappointing in my opinion. This is it!
Below is the box of ice cream that I bought. The management highlighted that they needed a change in packaging as wordings are largely in Chinese characters. So what is stopping them from taking action ? I wonder. 
If you done a comparison between the picture that was imprinted on the packaging and the one that was half eaten by me. You will notice the difference. Did you notice it before I told you ? 
p.s: The strawberry bits.
The ice-cream was well received by my female counterpart. In fact, before I had the chance to have a taste test on it. One of them was gone.
For those with a sweet tooth, this ice cream is a heaven blessing. It has a tinge of sourness when you eat some of its strawberry bits though.
Interested? Maybe its time to buy some for your partner.
Cheers
Niversphere.
The Art Of Compounding.
How about initial $5 BET with odd 1.6? You can be millionaire in 27 days. Never show hand bet in your life.
DAY - $ BET x ODD = $ WIN
1 - $ 5.00 x 1.6 = $ 8.00
2 - $ 8.00 x 1.6 = $ 12.80
3 - $ 10.40 x 1.6 = $ 16.64
4 - $ 16.64 x 1.6 = $ 26.62
5 - $ 26.62 x 1.6 = $ 42.60
6 - $ 42.60 x 1.6 = $ 68.16
7 - $ 68.16 x 1.6 = $ 109.05
8 - $ 109.05 x 1.6 = $ 174.48
9 - $ 174.48 x 1.6 = $ 279.17
10 - $ 279.17 x 1.6 = $ 446.68
11 - $ 446.68 x 1.6 = $ 714.68
12 - $ 714.68 x 1.6 = $ 1,143.49
13 - $ 1,143.49 x 1.6 = $ 1,829.59
14 - $ 1,829.59 x 1.6 = $ 2,927.34
15 - $ 2,927.34 x 1.6 = $ 4,683.74
16 - $ 4,683.74 x 1.6 = $ 7,493.99
17 - $ 7,493.99 x 1.6 = $ 11,990.38
18 - $ 11,990.38 x 1.6 = $ 19,184.61
19 - $ 19,184.61 x 1.6 = $ 30,695.38
20 - $ 30,695.38 x 1.6 = $ 49,112.61
21 - $ 49,112.61 x 1.6 = $ 78,580.18
22 - $ 78,580.18 x 1.6 = $ 125,728.29
23 - $ 125,728.29 x 1.6 = $ 201,165.26
24 - $ 201,165.26 x 1.6 = $ 321,864.41
25 - $ 321,864.41 x 1.6 = $ 514,983.06
26 - $ 514,983.06 x 1.6 = $ 823,972.89
27 - $ 823,972.89 x 1.6 = $ 1,318,356.62
Took this from an online source
Just for fun for the weekends.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Fung Choi Media Group : Keeping Faith With Value, Ignore The Noise.
Highlights:
· Broad-based demand, leading to strong contributions from existing and new
businesses: Group revenue grows +47% to HK$843.7 million.
· Robust demand for printing and packaging services and products:
Printing and packaging revenue +31.8% to HK$618.2 million.
· Higher circulation and advertising revenue from magazine portfolio:
Newly acquired Flying Media records advertising and distribution revenue growth of
88.3% to HK$197.7 million.
· Part year contribution from newly formed display marketing business:
Display marketing revenue contribution of HK$27.8 million.
· Net Profit attributable to shareholders +28% to HK$163.1 million.
· Strong foundation for growth amid buoyant economic conditions:
Group is optimistic of business prospects in FY2007
Media Release
Full Year Financial Statement And Dividend Announcement.
I released to some readers my analysis on Fung Choi. I felt it was inappropriate to release my analysis here as it would warrant unwanted attention.
Rumours were wild, false accounting practices, accounting irregularities and huge provisions made for such actions.
I held my stand based on value DCF evaluation, my personal experience in the printing industry and past stock market knowledge. I dont see any rumours of the sort I have hearing recently. Average down , average down was ringing loud in my ears. The discount was too attractive for a value investor like me to ignore.
"Buy on rumours, sell on facts."
I just reached home and am delighted on first glance the results that were released. As usual, I will do the sums and come up with the revised analysis on Fung Choi.
Cheers
Niversphere.
p.s: I hate Mondays!!!
---------------------------------------------------------------
Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.
Google Finance
SGX Announcements
Yahoo Finance!
LongCheer :: Highlights to Make
Generally for handset designers and makers, the 3Q is the strongest and the 4Q is the weakest. LongCheer achieved 81% QoQ increased gross profit which is impressive. YoY gross profit increased 123%. I expect competition to intensify and gross margins might dipped a little. It has maintained a good cash position of RMB450 from RMB 429.9M previously mentioned. Trade receviables decreased 17% to RMB 41.1 M.
Inventory turnover improved to 19.7 days from 26.5 days which is huge improvement, I would like the the inventory turnover to improve further. As highlighted before, staffing has increased further to 700 at the end of FY2006, no comments.
“We expect the mobile phone market to remain buoyant in the financial year ahead. Given that mobile phone penetration rates remain low and replacement demand is becoming increasingly high, we maintain an optimistic outlook on the Group’s prospects. Now that we have established a strong presence in the Chinese market, we are well-positioned for a new level of growth in the overseas market as well,” commented Mr Tao.
My Investment Philosophy
I would seriously like to see LongCheer venture overseas out of its doors to North America or Europe just like TechFaithWireless.LongCheer had a collaboration with a local company for a certain Linux PDA smartphone model. Apparently, we are not receiving more positive news from this company. Well.(FYI: I tried smartphones built on different platforms for comparison, and my ratings are Windows, Linux then Symbian OS.)
Some people highlighted the fact that the management has stated that FY07 will be moderate. I had to say management was wise to lower shareholder expectations as such rapid growth is simply too good and difficult to substain. I remain higly optimistic on LongCheer.
By current price, PE ratio is a low single digit of 7.2, strong cashflow position, expanding R&D staff force, ambitious management, leaders in its own industry, building up higher barriers of entry by vertical expansion and acquiring edge technology, implementing 3G network and style conscious Chinese consumerism.
Based on my DCF model, eps growth rate of 20% and discount factor of 5% which yields an instrinsic value of S$1.93 which is 16x PE ratio which is more in line with its peers PE ratio of 15 to 20.
BlogCharm
Cheers
Niversphere.
---------------------------------------------------------------
Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.
LongCheer ::.. Benefiting from style conscious Chinese consumerism
PRESS RELEASE – FY2006 RESULTS
SGX-LISTED LEADING CHINESE MOBILE PHONE DESIGNER LONGCHEER HOLDINGS DOUBLES FULLYEAR EARNINGS TO RMB 224.5 MILLION
Revenue grew 155% to RMB 1,984.0 million; net profit
doubled to RMB 224.5 million (S$44.8 million)49.5% dividend payout ratio; proposed final dividend of 1.56 Singapore cents per ordinary share, on top of 4.16
Singapore cents in interim and special dividends for FY2006
Financial Statement and Dividend Announcement
LongCheer Media Release
As mentioned in my earlier post, LongCheer is in a good cash position and management has rewarded loyal shareholders with another generous dividend payout.
TA vs FA on LongCheer
Technical Side of 3G Rollout in China
............
LongCheer could be the closest proxy to the widespread rising style conscious consumerism of the Chinese in PRC and also hitch onto the rising adoption of the mobile lifestyle in China. Mobile handsets has practically been unirreplacable part of our lives. Can you imagine going out without your handset? It's as if we are born with handsets(obviously not I was born with pagers. Just joking). My first mobile was the Motorola StarTec X , then Nokia 6650, Nokia 6610, 3 Samsungs, 2 Sony Ericssons and now the lastest addition SE W810i. Imagine the mini fortune, I had spent on phones. Maybe you might not change handsets as often as I do. I work on them for research and development though. I would like to highlight the current widespread spending generation of Chinese. The need for a better quality of life. Not to be caught dead pulling out a outdated phone model from your pocket. Chinese are particular about the face-value factor. Laughs.
LongCheer is a relatively new listing here in SGX. So far, its results released has been impressive. LongCheer achieved y-o-y sales and earnings growth of 102% and 69% respectively in the 3Q06. Gross margin improved from 16.1% to 19.1% q-o-q driven by new products. Staff size has grown considerably from 300 to 600 which bodes for further expansion.
LongCheer is deeply undervalued given its rosy growth prospects. LongCheer has a cash position of RMB 429.9M and I expect another generous dividend payout from the company. CIMB-GK has a TP of S$1.59 while DBS Vickers has a fair value of S$2.00 for LongCheer. Currently, I have a fair value of S$1.20 for LongCheer which is approximately 67% undervalued from the current share price of S$0.71.
Possible Customers & Rivals of LongCheer
I will have a detailed calculations later. Looks fantastic on first glance though.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.
Work on your own strengths
This is afterall also a blog on personal development. I have such a site to recommend to motivated readers.
Personal Development for Smart People
Hear this
DanielXX said...
Bravo! Figure out your competitive advantage, build assiduously on it and eventually you will succeed as people recognise your value-add. That's what I always believe.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Ausgroup :: Fantastic Results
Ausgroup :: Tapping on Aussie Development
Full Year Results and Announcement
Media Release
Based on my DCF calculations, I have updated the target price for Ausgroup to $0.75.
Today's share price of 0.36 is approximately 108% undervalued from the rough estimate of intrinsic business value.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information.
Forex Trading and Ambition
Came across this website written by Grace Cheng and is amazed by the ambition of this woman. I am like her, never afraid to boldly state out our ambitions in life. To those who are reading my blog, you are probably just as ambitious as me. People can say that its greed that pushed me, they can say whatever they want. Hypocrites ! We all have this clear goal in our minds and we are not going to falter to those losers.
Life constantly pushes us around everyday, and there will come a time when you look back in life. Smile and punch the air and say "Yes"!
Stay ambitious !
"Do not adjust your goals to bring them in line with your life. Adjust your life to bring you in line with your goals. "
Power Forex Trading
Hetty Green - By DanielXXX
p.s: I have a youtube video link in my previous post that briefly introduced hetty green. Check it out.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Providing an Insight into Hedge Funds.
Inspiration from the smog in Hong Kong and providing an insight into Hedge Funds. Personally, I accept the fact that I know close to nothing about hedge funds before this. Enjoy the weekend read.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Some links:
Magnum Funds
Fraternity Fund
Articles from Hedge Fund Association
Hedge funds attracting more interest from Singapore investors: experts
SGX to accept listing of hedge funds from Thursday -28 Jun 2006
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Investor Questionnaire by Vanguard:
Link
Possible Customers & Rivals of LongCheer
1. Daxian Telecom
2. Gionee
3. PhoneTech
4. TCL
5. ZTE
6. Konka
Competition:
1. TechFaith Wireless
2. SimCom
3. Yuhua
4. KeJian
Let it be known that LongCheer is one of the top 5 leading design and manufacturing house in China.
Cheers
Niversphere.
TA vs FA (LongCheer Holdings )
Technical Analysis:
Chart Request for LongCheer Courtesy of Quest.
Fundamental Analysis:
Technical side of 3G rollout in China
Cheers
Niversphere.
This is what I call excellent Investor Relations from HengXin
As promised, i will post the reply I got from HengXin regarding their patents.
Dear Niversphere
We represent Hengxin Technology as its IR/PR consultant.
Thank you for your interest in the Company. Hengxin Technology has received 3 patents in the PRC for its super-flexible coaxial cables and leaky coaxial cables, and are in the process of applying for another 5 patents for its products and manufacturing equipment.
I've attached the relevant pages from its IPO prospectus with the details of the patents. If you have any further queries, pls feel free to contact us.
Many thanks
May Nah
May Nah, CHIN
August Consulting
Tel: (65) 6733 8873
Fax: (65) 6733 9913
Hp: (65) 8139 7083
Cheers
Niversphere.
Attachment received: Attachment
Technical Side of 3G Rollout in China.
As we all probably already know, China is impending a 3G rollout. Probably readers are not as familiar as the implementing 3G network that is to be rolled out in PRC as I am. My field of interest and research is in mobile communications and networks.
There are many standards of the IMT-2000* and the one that China is probably going to implement is the TD-SCDMA standard. A collaboration of the China Academy of Telecommunication Technology (CATT) and Siemens Corporation.It's mode of operation is the DS-CDMA (1.1136 Mcps) using the TDD(time division duplexing)duplexing method. The key features of this standard is that the RF channel bit rate is up to 2.227Mpbs. Use of smart antenna technology is fundamental (but not strictly required) in TD-SCMA.
The current system employed in China is still the GSM standard, which is what we folks here in Singapore use currently. M1 tried to introduce CDMA here way back which i could remember but failed. What a pity. The wireless subscriber growth in China is a phenomenon. See here. Research firm, BDA China, forecasted the number of 3G subscribers in China to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 268 per cent from 2006 to 2010. By 2010, the number of 3G users will hit 210 million, accounting for 34 per cent of the total number of the phone subscribers in the country. The number of the total mobile users is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9 per cent from 2005 to 2010 to hit 617 million.
The TD-SCDMA standard relies on its existing core GSM infrastructure. Just by adding a high data rate equipment at each existing GSM station, you can implement the 3G network. As mentioned earlier, a key fundamental feature of the TD-SCDMA system is the antenna. The radio channels are 1.6KHz in bandwidth and rely on smart antenna , spatial filtering and joint detection to achieve several times more spectrum efficiency than GSM. As such this standard TD-SCDMA is easily implemented and inexpensively added into existing GSM systems.
Some industry pundits expect China to build networks based on the world's 2 most popular 3G standards, the WCDMA standard in Europe and CDMA 2000 which is backed by US Qualcomm Inc with the TD-SCDMA technology being used for support rather than a standalone system.
Let me make a bold prediction here, China will implement their own 3G standard, TD-SCDMA. Research started in 1998 and the proposal approved in 1999. Chinese pride is involved here, we have all seen how proud they are when they successfully launch to space.
Now lets discuss on how we can take advantage of this knowledge in investment. Knowledge of the technology behind it can be advantageous to a savvy investor. "Know what you buy ...." A recent report by leading Chinese financial portal, CNFOL.com estimated that around RMB 172 billion will be spent on 3G networks rollout in 2006 and 2007, and 70%(RMB 120 billion) of this investment will be wireless coverage related.
I have identified 3 companies listed in SGX as potential beneficiaries of the 3G network.
1. Ace Achieve
2. HengXin Technology
3. LongCheer
1.Ace Achieve
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I have covered on the fact that Ace Achieve is currently undervalued compared to what the market has given for its price. Ace Achieve provides customised solutions to its customers and is involved in business of installing of repeaters** for its customers. Ace Achieve's book order continues to look strong however net profits is lower. Being a small company, it is being bullied into having to give credit to its customers which is why high book orders dont really translate to higher share prices. However, an interesting point I observed is that the book orders are for GSM repeaters. This could lead to some interesting possibilities. Notice the fact that TD-SCDMA can be build over existing GSM system. Probably, the mobile operators are sliently confident on TD-SCDMA being implemented in PRC. And why not ? The phenomenon subscription rate has pushed the mobile operator to expand its coverage needs to satisfy their customers.
My Fair Value on Ace Achieve
2.HengXin Technology
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HengXin Technology is one of the most easy business to understand and is positioned to take advantage of the growing telecommunication industry in PRC. HengXin's core business is in the manufacture of coaxial cables used in mobile communications and other telecommunications equipment.
HengXin is enjoying the largest market share in the PRC of around 35 percent for the manufacture of coaxial cables for mobile.
Looking ahead >>>>>>>>>>>..
> HengXin is immensely successful in passing on higher cost of copper to its customers.
> It has increased its annual production capacity of RF coaxial cables to more than 30,000 km. Further consolidating its dominance!
> Expanding sales and marketing network to Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Urumqi and Hehehaote before the end of the year. We have already seen its initial success with a foreign Korean company. This is definitely very exciting development. Wow.
> HengXin planned to expand its product range to include accessories like connectors and antennas so as to provide customers with a one-stop valued added manufacturing service.
> Plans to leverage on its 3G compatible products to enhance its market share further in view of the anticipated issuance of 3G licences this year.
All these are positive developments for HengXin Technology moving ahead. Single product multiple applications in demand.
It's major customers can be categorised as following:-
i) Major telecommunications operators - these include the various branches or subsidiaries of China Unicom, China Mobile, China Telecom and China Netcom.
ii) Equipment manufacturers - these include Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, ZTE Corporation, Siemens (China) Limited, Lucent Technology (China) Co Ltd, Shanghai Bell Samsung Mobile Communication Co Ltd, Shanghai Datang Mobile Communications Equipment Co Ltd and Nortel Network (China) Co Ltd.
iii) Cable television networks - these include the cable television network and broadcasting stations in the various provinces and cities.
My Fair Value on HengXin Technology
3.LongCheer
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LongCheer could be the closest proxy to the widespread rising style conscious consumerism of the Chinese in PRC and also hitch onto the rising adoption of the mobile lifestyle in China. Mobile handsets has practically been unirreplacable part of our lives. Can you imagine going out without your handset? It's as if we are born with handsets(obviously not I was born with pagers. Just joking). My first mobile was the Motorola StarTec X , then Nokia 6650, Nokia 6610, 3 Samsungs, 2 Sony Ericssons and now the lastest addition SE W810i. Imagine the mini fortune, I had spent on phones. Maybe you might not change handsets as often as I do. I work on them for research and development though. I would like to highlight the current widespread spending generation of Chinese. The need for a better quality of life. Not to be caught dead pulling out a outdated phone model from your pocket. Chinese are particular about the face-value factor. Laughs.
LongCheer is a relatively new listing here in SGX. So far, its results released has been impressive. LongCheer achieved y-o-y sales and earnings growth of 102% and 69% respectively in the 3Q06. Gross margin improved from 16.1% to 19.1% q-o-q driven by new products. Staff size has grown considerably from 300 to 600 which bodes for further expansion.
LongCheer is deeply undervalued given its rosy growth prospects. LongCheer has a cash position of RMB 429.9M and I expect another generous dividend payout from the company. CIMB-GK has a TP of S$1.59 while DBS Vickers has a fair value of S$2.00 for LongCheer. Currently, I have a fair value of S$1.20 for LongCheer which is approximately 67% undervalued from the current share price of S$0.71.
Cheers
Niversphere.
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Please read the prospectus and perform your analysis before making any investment decision. The above does not constitute a recommendation to apply for this company. I will not be liable for any losses incurred by anyone who invests based solely on the above-mentioned information
Terms used in this article:
**Repeaters: often used by mobile operators to provide dedicated coverage for hard to reach areas, such as buildings, or in valleys or tunnels. They are bidirectional in nature, and simultaneously send and receive signals from a serving base station.
IMT-2000: The standard for 3G cellular networks is called IMT-2000(international mobile telecommunications beyond 2000). IMT-2000 is the overall name for the 3G standard under ITU(international telecommunication union).
References used:
1)Wireless Communications Principles and Practice 2nd Edition by Theodore S. Rapport
2)Principles of Wireless Communications and Data Networks 2nd Edition by Benjamin PremKumar and Cai Jianfei.
News Articles:
1)Siemens sees delay in China 3G licenses to H1 '06
1)UPDATE: China Mobile Feb Growth Outpaced China Unicom
HengXin Technology showing executionary, recognition and ambition.
HengXin Technology has since executed its executionary capabilities we expected of it and has been rather busy delivering good positive news to fellow investors. After my analysis of this company dated June 30th, several analyst has since released their analysis on HengXin Technology.
17 June 2006: JiangSu HengXin Technology granted tax exemption for 3 years.
17 June 2006: First major overseas contract with Korean-listed Taihan electric.
18 June 2006: China Mobile increases its contract with HengXin Technology.
Announcement
Regards
Niversphere.
Focus
Video interview of Warren Buffett in 3(1 hr) parts:
Google video : Heard it from the man
Focus.
Cheers
Niversphere.
Personal Thought Inspired By Buffett's Act Of Charity
Everyone is entitled to dream. To dream big, to feel the adrenaline of staying alive. Buffett lived his dream and also mine. I thought of distributing my wealth when I am old as Buffett and only sufficient amounts to my children. I stopped talking to friends about this as they would reply "You siao ah".
Personally, I am not a person easily swayed by other people's opinions. I lived my own life and so do they. It's easy to fall victim to the symptom I call "commander", giving orders on how others should live their own life.
That is really what I wanted to do, if I ever to be as successful as Warren that is. Success is relative. Just do your best.
Buffett has for decades declared his intention to donate his wealth to philanthropy unlike his friend Mr Willam Gates. I think I can relate to why that is so. A measure of wealth is how long you can substain your current lifestyle comfortably without any form of active income.
Have you ever wondered why the poor remained poor? Because they are poor. Huh ? You may say but let me elaborate on it. Let say you have less than $1000 dollars in your bank account or say less than $500 in your bank.(if you are those in below $500, hey you are donating $2 to the bank on "admin" charges, $2*12 = $24 ; $24/$500 * 100% = 4.8%P.A!! and assuming principal of $500 throughout. The bank is never going to offer you that rate even for your FDs. Compounding it and well be you know maths dont you.) I bet you would not even care a hood to fork out that $600 dollars for say the lastest phone in the market. But why? That is because to be rich, you had to feel rich first. To be rich is not what many imagined to be, living lavishly and using sharkfin for brushing teeth. In fact what I observed from rich pals are they are just like you and me but only that they can afford the occasional lavish treats. Deep down they are really misers, like the Uncle Scrooge. Haha. When you are there, you want to maintain at that wealth level and feel motivated to earn more and keep the number of digits running. You feel miserable when you over spend on somethings. Maybe Buffett overdone the feel rich factor. (shrugs shoulders)
The government recently released a new series of personal finance education program on Channel U. Quite a decent attempt at least, but not good enough. Action is the keyword, involve the people that really need it, not just celebrities.
Warren and all other successful people in life did one thing, enjoy doing what they like to do. I wish I could do that too, I know I can.
Take this with you from the Sage of Ohama,
"I Know what I want to do, and it makes sense to get going"
~ Warren Buffett
“为何指纹只长在手心而不是在手背，那有可能是老天爷要我们把命运掌握在手里“
Video Links:
Cheers
Niversphere.
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