Algeria: Djaballah seeks to lead new Islamists

Abdellah Djaballah, the former head of the moderate Islamist parties El-Islah and Ennahda, has announced plans to create a new Islamist party. The new party, which does not yet have a name, was to be launched at Zeralda on 30th July. Djaballah will be joining forces with a disaffected former leader of El-Islah, Mohamed Boulahia, who is contesting the legitimacy of the current leadership of El-Islah through a court case. The party “is aimed at reuniting members of the [Islamist] movement”, he told the press.

He added that the party would be open to former members of the ex Front Islamique du Salut (FIS). Abdelrafour Sadi, another former member of El-Islah and founding member of the new party, has said that the documents for the foundation of the party will soon be delivered to the interior minister for approval. “The state needs to learn the lesson of what has happened in the Arab countries. Algeria has to represent the party of freedom in the Arab Maghreb,” said Sadi on 23rd July. Whether or not the party is approved will be an interesting test of the regime's willingness to tolerate the emergence of a new Islamist opposition, incorporating former members of the FIS.

Last month, it emerged that Islamists were lobbying the president for a pardon of former FIS members still in prison, and for the return of these former Islamists to the political fold.

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

President Jonathan to present tenure bill to National Assembly

President Goodluck Jonathan's office has confirmed the news making the rounds that he is planning to send a constitution amendment bill to the National Assembly, proposing longer single tenures for political office holders. The duration has not been specified, but it is widely thought the presidency will attempt to insert a six or seven year period into the legislation before presenting it.

Lawmakers would be eligible to contest elections in perpetuity, if they so wish, after the expiration of each term. In effect, the two term limit will be removed.

Over the past week, there had been speculation that such a bill was in the works, though it was perceived that the bill was being sponsored by other people with close ties to the Jonathan.

On Tuesday 26th July, Jonathan finally clarified the situation when he released a statement through his new Special Adviser on Media and Publicity, renowned journalist and former government critic, Reuben Abati. In the two-page statement, Jonathan said that his “commitment to a single term for the President and Governors is borne out of a patriotic zeal, after a painstaking study and belief that the constitutionally guaranteed two terms for Presidents and Governors is not helping the focus of Governance and institutionalisation of democracy at this stage of our development”.

The statement further sought to explain the rationale for such a bill, positing that “President Jonathan is concerned about the acrimony which the issue of re-election, every four years, generates both at the Federal and State levels. The nation is still smarting from the unrest, the desperation for power and the overheating of the polity that has attended each general election, the fall-out of all this is the unending inter- and intra-party squabbles which have affected the growth of party democracy in the country, and have further undermined the country's developmental aspirations”.

Jonathan, however, denied accusations that the bill was engineered to favour him and make him eligible to stay the full eight year course as president.

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Iran threatens to cut India exports

The Iranian government has threatened to cut off oil exports to India by August if India does not make payments of over $2 billion for oil it has already received from Iran. The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) made the warning in a letter sent to Indian refineries that had been purchasing Iranian crude on credit.

The controversy began late last year when the Reserve Bank of India stopped using the Asia Clearing Union (ACU) to settle Indian payments to Iran because of ACU's non-adherence to US and EU sanctions. Ever since, India and Iran have examined alternative payment mechanisms, with no apparent success.

Fars News Agency later questioned the authenticity of the news, referring to an unnamed informed source at the Ministry of Petroleum who blamed foreign media for releasing reports based on what they have heard. This is while two Iranian industry officials confirmed sending a letter to Indian refiners.

Iran's threat comes at a time when the Saudis are significantly increasing their oil production and exports. Saudi Arabia, which is India's largest supplier of oil, has already offered India an extra 2.5 million barrels of crude to replace any loss of Iranian imports.

For more news and expert analysis about Iran, please see Iran Strategic Focus.

© 2011 Menas Associates

Split between the military and young activists more pronounced

The split between the military and the young activists seeking democratic reforms is becoming more pronounced. The gloves are off.

The two sides are more openly trading accusations. The fear among the democracy activists is that the military are in essence mounting a counter-revolution in association with former regime elements.

It is still not clear how much vision of the future the military really has and its role in shaping it. Its sudden embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) a partner is an extraordinary change of tack.

For its part, the mainstream MB has refrained from hostile criticism of the military. Not so its youth wing, which released a statement saying: “The military council is not the army but a council with a specific political mandate authorised by the people to run the country in this transitional period. The people have the right to keep it or banish the council."

The trouble is that there is no mechanism yet before elections to determine the will of the people.

For more news and expert analysis about Egypt, please see Egypt Politics & Security.

© 2011 Menas Associates

UN-backed Cameroon-Nigeria border commission seeks swift resolution

The UN-backed Cameroon-Nigeria Mixed Commission, set up to help Cameroon and Nigeria resolve their border disputes has called for “swift agreement” to resolve the remaining border disputes.

The Commission was set up at the request of the West African neighbours after the 2002 International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision on the ownership of the Bakassi Peninsula, in order to help implement the decision.

It has already reached agreement on more than 1,600 km of the border, however it is still working on the final 350 kilometres of the land border which needs to be demarcated.

The most recent meeting of the Commission, which took place for two days in Abuja last week, had planned to reach an agreement on the remaining 350 kilometres, however it was not successful.

The Commission instruct its sub-commission on demarcation to find "effective and practical solutions" on the remaining areas, which include previous skipped areas, areas of disagreement, and inaccessible areas.

In a press release at the end of the meeting on Friday 22nd July, Cameroon and Nigeria reiterated their commitment to complete the demarcation by the end of next year.

The commission, chaired by the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for West Africa Said Djinnit also noted the progress made by the two nations regarding the confidence-building initiatives for the populations affected by the demarcation.

A draft agreement was reached at the meeting however, on other issues such as the exploitation of hydrocarbons on the border of Nigeria and Cameroon.

Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan said on Tuesday 26th July that he would form a committee to consider the draft agreement for ratification, after which the document would be signed by the leaders of both countries.

Jonathan also said it was critical for the two countries to work together to ensure security along the border.

The next session of the commission will be held in Yaoundé, Cameroon, on 8-9th December.

Sources: Punch, The Nation, UN News Centre

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.

Algeria ups food imports

Algeria's customs bureau announced that total food imports for the first half of 2011 are up by 59 per cent compared to the same period in 2010. It is estimated that Algeria has imported $2.04 billion worth of cereals, flour and semolina in the first half of the year, which marks a 99 per cent increase compared to 2010 figures.

It is thought that Algeria has boosted its food imports in order to contain possible social unrest ahead of Ramadan, when food prices traditionally go up. The move is believed to guard against a popular revolt like that in neighbouring Tunisia, where a frustrated public - inspired by one man's dramatic protest - brought down an entrenched regime.

Five Algerians were killed and more than 800 injured during five days of riots in January, ignited by a rise in the cost of basic comestibles like oil and sugar. Anti-government demonstrations have continued intermittently since, with Algerians taking to the streets to demand an improvement in employment and housing.

Some believe that the government's strategic move to up food imports to subdue the Algerian population is flawed move. Head of Algerian FCE business forum Reda Hamiani, said: "Algeria lowers prices internationally, and countries like Mali, Niger Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Mauritania also profit from these subsidies through certain networks."

The policy is also "nonsensical", according to Hamiani, because it discourages domestic farmers from boosting domestic grain production, which the country desperately needs.

Sources: AFP, News24, Bloomberg

For more news and expert analysis about Algeria, please see Algeria Focus and Algeria Politics & Security.

President Jonathan proposes one-term presidency limit

Nigeria's President Goodluck Jonathan has announced he will put in a request with MPs to ament current constitution so that future presidents serve a single, longer term in office. At present the constitution limits presidents to two four-year terms.

Nigerian press has been speculating that the suggested amendment would allow Jonathan to extend his own term. Jonathan, however, has said that the change would would not come into effect before he steps down.

AFP news agency quoted the president as saying: "If the proposed amendment is accepted by the National Assembly, the president assures that he will not in any way be a beneficiary."

Jonathan did not give details about how long the new term should be, but stipulated that the changes would allow politicians to concentrate on governance rather than re-election. According to the BBC, the new term would most likely be for the period of six years.

Jonathan relseased a statement saying, he was "was concerned about the acrimony which the issue of re-election every four years generates". The statement also said: "The nation is still smarting from the unrest, the desperation for power and the overheating of the polity that has attended each general election."

It is estimated that as many as 500 people were killed in violent clashes following the announcement of April's election results, which Jonathan won with nearly 60 per cent of the vote.

Sources: BBC News, Reuters, AFP

For more news and expert analysis about Nigeria, please see Nigeria Focus and Nigeria Politics & Security.