Latest Polls And Polls' Average Of The Presidential Race

These charts are from RealClearPolitics. The top chart shows the latest 9 polls in the presidential race, and the average of those polls. The average is 45% for Clinton and 42.9% for Trump -- a 2.1 point edge for Hillary Clinton. I respect RCP, but I feel the distance between the two is just a bit larger. I guess we'll find out in a couple of days.

NBC Poll Shows Clinton Maintaining A 6-Point Lead

This chart reflects the results of a new NBC News / SurveyMonkey Poll done between October 24th and 30th of a random national sample of 40,816 likely voters, with a margin of error of 1 point.

Latest Polls Average Has Tightened A Bit - Clinton Still Leads

The charts above are from RealClearPolitics. They show the national polls have tightened a bit, and the polls average now has Clinton with a 3.4 point lead.

Another New Poll Shows Clinton Is Close In Texas

This chart reflects the results of a new University of Texas / Texas Tribune Poll -- done between October 14th and 23rd of a random sample of 1,200 registered Texas voters, with a margin of error of 2.83 points.

Like another recent Texas poll (the University of Houston Poll) this survey shows Hillary Clinton is gaining ground in the state of Texas. It shows she is currently 3 points behind Donald Trump -- within the poll's margin of error.

Two New Polls Show Clinton With A Large Electoral Lead

The Suffolk University / USA Today Poll was done between October 20th and 24th of a random national sample of 1,000 voters, and has a margin of error of 3 points.

The AP-GfK Poll was done between October 20th and 24th of a random national sample of 1,546 registered voters, and has a margin of error of 2.75 points.

Millennials Prefer Clinton Over Trump By A 28 Point Margin

This chart reflects the results of the recent Harvard University Institute of Politics Poll -- done between October 7th and 17th of a random national sample of 2,150 likely voters between 18 and 29, with a margin of error of 3.11 points.

It shows that millennial voters prefer Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by a 28 point margin (49% to 21%). About 11% say they are still undecided, while 19% prefer Gary Johnson or Jill Stein.

3 New National Polls Show Clinton With 5-12 Point Lead

The Democracy Corps Poll was done between October 21st and 24th of a random national sample of 900 likely voters, with a 3.27 point margin of error.

The ABC News Poll was done between October 21st and 24th of a random national sample of 1,119 likely voters, with a 3 point margin of error.

The NBC News / SurveyMonkey Poll was done between October 17th and 23rd of a random national sample of 32,225 likely voters, with a margin of error of 1 point.

Average Of National Polls Has Clinton Holding Her Lead

The charts above are from RealClearPolitics. They show the average of all the latest national polls for the 2016 presidential race. Currently, Hillary Clinton has a 5.4 point lead over Donald Trump.

New ABC Poll Has Clinton 12 Points Ahead Of Trump

This chart reflects the results of ABC Polls since August. It shows that Hillary Clinton's lead over Donald Trump is growing, and right now she has a 12 point lead (50% to 38%). The ABC News Poll was last done between October 20th and 22nd of a random national sample of 874 likely voters, and has a margin of error of 3.5 points.

Texas Is A Purple State In The 2016 Presidential Election

The chart above reflects the results of a new CBS News / YouGov Poll. It was done on October 20th and 21st of a random sample of 1,031 likely Texas voters, and has a margin of error of 4.4 points.

Like two other recent Texas polls, it shows the presidential race in Texas is very close. Hillary Clinton is only 3 points behind Donald Trump -- within the margin of error of the poll.

Texas is no longer a bright red state (at least for this presidential election). It is currently a nice shade of purple. The winner in Texas will depend on whether Clinton or Trump does a better job of getting out their voters.

This is exciting. It's been a long time since a Democratic presidential candidate had any chance of carrying Texas.

Average Of Polls Gap Is Growing Wider For Hillary Clinton

The top chart reflects the latest polls taken in the presidential race on a national basis, and the RealClearPolitics average of all those polls. That average, which usually is closer to the actual electoral result, is now showing a 6.2 point lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump (45.3 to 39.1). The bottom chart shows how this average has been over the length of this presidential campaign. Note that it shows the gap is growing wider between Clinton and Trump.

New CBS Poll Has Clinton With A 9 Point Lead Over Trump

The chart reflects the results of the new CBS News Poll -- done between October 12th and 16th of a random national sample of 1,189 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3 points.

The poll shows Clinton now has a 9 point lead over Trump in a four-way race (an 11 point lead in a head-to-head match-up). That's significant, and Trump seems to be losing support -- the poll had Trump behind by only 4 points in mid-September.

The poll also showed that most voters have made up their minds and will not change their vote between now and November 8th -- 90% of all voters, 94% of Clinton voters, and 93% of Trump voters. That means it's going to be extremely difficult for Trump to cut into Clinton's lead in the next three weeks.

New Poll Has Clinton Within Margin Of Error In Texas

The chart above reflects the results of the newly-released University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs Poll -- done between October 7th and 15th of a random sample of 1,000 registered voters in Texas, with a 3 point margin of error.

Last Saturday, I showed you a WFAA TV / SurveyUSA Poll that showed Hillary Clinton was only 4 points behind Donald Trump in the very red state of Texas -- closer than any Democratic candidate in many years.

Now that poll has been verified by this new University of Houston Poll, which shows Clinton within 3 points of Trump (within the poll's margin of error).

It looks like a combination of Trump's growing unpopularity (boosted by the revelation of his lewd treatment of women) and continuing demographic change has made this a very close race in Texas. Trump would have to be slightly favored, but this is now a presidential race that could see Texas go blue. It all depends on who turns out on election day (and early voting), and in what kind of numbers they turn out.

I urge those Bernie Sanders supporters who are thinking about voting third party to reconsider. In the past, it wouldn't have made much difference how you voted, but 2016 in different -- and your vote could actually make a real difference.

Monmouth Poll Gives Clinton A 9-12 Point Edge Over Trump

This chart reflects the results of a newly-released Monmouth University Poll -- done between October 14th and 16th of a random national sample of 805 registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.5 points.

It shows Hillary Clinton has a 12 point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters, and a 9 point lead among likely voters. The last couple of weeks have been really bad for the Trump campaign -- and that is now starting to show up in the polls.

Early voting has already started in some states, and will begin in many more next week. Trump is running out of time to fix this (if he has the desire to fix it instead of just attacking those who disagree with him).

Clinton Has 6 Point Lead In Poll Of 13 Battleground States

This new CBS News / YouGov Poll is not a national poll. It was taken between October 12th and 14th of a random sample of 3,260 likely voters in 13 battleground states -- Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The poll has a margin of error of 2.5 points.

These battleground states have Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 6 points (46% to 40%). One thing I notice is that Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, of the Libertarian and Green parties respectively, are not doing too well in these states. Overall, Stein has about 2%, while Johnson has about 6% support. If third party voting was going to have an effect on this election, it is in these 13 states where that would happen. But it looks like they will not be a factor.

This election is going to be between those who support Trump (no matter what he does or says) and those who think Trump would make a disastrous president (and will be voting for Clinton). I believe (and fervently hope) that the latter will make up a significant majority of voters.

New NBC Poll Has Hillary Clinton With An 11 Point Lead

The newest NBC News / Wall Street Journal (done between October 10th and 13th of a random national sample of 905 likely voters, with a 3.3 point margin of error) shows Hillary Clinton extending her lead to 11 points over Donald Trump. The poll's head-to-head match-ups are in the chart below.

Average Of Latest Polls Gives Clinton A 5.5 Point Edge

In the past few elections, an average of the presidential polls has been more accurate than most single polls. The chart above shows the RealClearPolitics average of the latest presidential polls. It shows Hillary Clinton has a 5.5 point advantage over Donald Trump right now in a four-way race.

The chart below shows the polls that were averaged (along with their dates, samples, and margin of error).

Three New Polls Show Hillary Clinton Is Extending Her Lead

The chart above reflects the results of the latest three national polls on the presidential race. They are:

The NBC News / Wall Street Journal Poll -- done on October 8th and 9th of a random national sample of 500 registered voters, and has a 4.4 point margin of error.

The Rasmussen Poll -- done on October 5th-6th and 9th of a random national sample of 1,500 likely voters, and has a 2.5 point margin of error.

The YouGov / Economist Poll -- done on October 7th and 8th of a random national sample of 1,300 voters, and has a 4.2 point margin of error.

All three of these new polls have Hillary Clinton with a significant lead over Donald Trump -- NBC/WSJ (+11), Rasmussen (+7), and YouGov (+6). And all of them show Clinton has increased her lead over Trump since they last polled. The margins for Clinton in their last polls were NBC/WSJ +6 (an increase of 5 points), Rasmussen -1 (an increase of 8 points), and YouGov +3 (an increase of 3 points).

It looks like Trump's lewd tape may be having a detrimental effect on his campaign after all.

Latest Poll Shows No Movement Yet Over Trump Scandal

This is the first poll taken after the Trump scandal broke. It is the Politico / Morning Consult Poll -- done on October 8th of a random national sample of 1,390 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3 points.

It shows that Hillary Clinton still has about a four point lead over Donald Trump on the national scene -- about what she had before the scandal broke a couple of days ago. Is the Trump scandal going to make any difference in how people vote for president? I tend to think it will, by a few points at least. We'll get a better picture in a few more days, after people have had a little time to think about it.

3 More National Polls Show Clinton Has Regained The Lead

The CNN / ORC Poll was done between September 28th and October 2nd of a random national sample of 1,213 likely voters, and has a 3 point margin of error.

The CBS News / New York Times Poll was done between September 28th and October 2nd of a random national sample of 1,217 likely voters, and has a 4 point margin of error.

The NBC News / SurveyMonkey Poll was done between September 26th and October 2nd of a random national sample of 26,925 likely voters, and has a 1 point margin of error.