New paper finds sea levels were significantly higher during past interglacials

A paper published today in Quaternary Research finds sea levels on the island of Curaçao [southern Caribbean] during the last interglacial were up to 9 meters higher than the present, and that during another interglacial period 400,000 years ago sea levels were up to 20 meters higher than the present. According to the paper, these significantly higher sea levels during prior interglacials "require major ice sheet loss from Greenland and Antarctica." The authors determine sea levels by dating fossilized reefs that are presently located high above current sea levels [photo below]. The paper also shows sea levels in the Red Sea were up to ~8 meters higher than the present within the past 5,000 years of the current interglacial, and up to ~12 meters higher than the present during the last interglacial. This and many other papers debunk claims by climate alarmists that recent sea level rise is unprecedented, unnatural, or accelerated. In fact, sea levels rose at a constant rate without acceleration during the 20th century, and have decelerated since 2005 to a rate of only ~1.2 mm/yr [less than 5 inches per century].

Top graph shows sea levels relative to the present during 3 prior interglacials. Bottom graph shows the Red Sea levels for comparison.

Fossilized reefs [shown by dotted lines] formed when sea levels were much higher than the present.

Sea-level history of past interglacial periods from uranium-series dating of corals, Curaçao, Leeward Antilles islands

• Daniel R. Muhs^a, , , 
• John M. Pandolfi^b, , 
• Kathleen R. Simmons^a, , 
• R. Randall Schumann^a, 

• ^a U.S. Geological Survey, MS 980, Box 25046, Federal Center, Denver, CO 80225, USA
• ^b Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia

• http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.yqres.2012.05.008, How to Cite or Link Using DOI

• Permissions & Reprints

Abstract

Curaçao has reef terraces with the potential to provide sea-level histories of interglacial periods. Ages of the Hato (upper) unit of the “Lower Terrace” indicate that this reef dates to the last interglacial period, Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5.5. On Curaçao, this high sea stand lasted at least 8000 yr (~ 126 to ~ 118 ka). Elevations and age of this reef show that late Quaternary uplift rates on Curaçao are low, 0.026–0.054 m/ka, consistent with its tectonic setting. Ages of ~ 200 ka for corals from the older Cortalein unit of the Lower Terrace correlate this reef to MIS 7, with paleo-sea level estimates ranging from − 3.3 m to + 2.3 m. The estimates are in agreement with those for MIS 7 made from other localities and indicate that the penultimate interglacial period was a time of significant warmth, on a par with the present interglacial period. The ~ 400 ka (MIS 11) Middle Terrace I on Curaçao, dated by others, may have formed from a paleo-sea level of + 8.3 to + 10.0 m, or (less likely) + 17 m to + 20 m. The lower estimates are conservative compared to previous studies, but still require major ice sheet loss from Greenland and Antarctica
.

Do the math: Wind & solar cannot possibly meet the world's energy needs

Harvard Needs Remedial Energy Math

Wind and solar power cannot possibly meet the world's growing need for more electricity.

By ROBERT BRYCE   WSJ.COM  12/16/12

Investing in and using fossil fuels is so wrong it should be seen as the equivalent of support for apartheid. That is the message being promoted by 350.org, the organization headed by environmental activist Bill McKibben.

Over the past month or so, Mr. McKibben and a rotating cast of activists have held rallies in 21 U.S. cities encouraging students to campaign for ridding their university endowments of investments in coal, oil and natural gas. The effort is modeled on the 1980s effort to get universities to shed investments in companies that did business in apartheid-era South Africa. A few small schools, including Unity College in Maine and Hampshire College in Massachusetts, have responded to the pressure and agreed to rid their portfolios of fossil-fuel stocks.

One of the slogans used in 350.org's divestment campaign is "Do the math." OK. Let's.

Set aside the financial arguments for—or against—investing in companies that produce hydrocarbons. Further, let's not judge the claims made by Mr. McKibben and his allies that a concentration of 350 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere is "the safe limit for humanity."

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Let's do the math by considering what will happen if we humans—in the words of the campaign—attempt to "go fossil free" and rely solely on "clean energy." To make the computation simpler still, let's ignore oil altogether, even though that energy source represents about 33% of all global energy use and is indispensable for transportation.

The absurdity of the calls for a "fossil free" future can be illustrated by looking exclusively at the explosive growth in the world's demand for electricity, the commodity that separates rich countries from the poor ones. Since 1985, on a percentage basis, global electricity demand has grown by 121%, which is nearly three times the rate of growth in oil demand. Over the past two and half decades, electricity consumption has increased by an average of 450 terawatt-hours (a terawatt-hour is one trillion watt-hours) per year. That's the equivalent of adding about one Brazil (which used 485 terawatt-hours of electricity in 2010) to the electricity sector every year. The International Energy Agency expects global electricity use to continue growing by about 450 terawatt-hours per year through 2035.

Here's where the math becomes college-freshman obvious: In 2011, the world had 240,000 megawatts of wind-generation capacity. That fleet of turbines produced 437 terawatt-hours of electricity. Therefore, just keeping up with the growth in global electricity demand—while not displacing any of the existing need for coal, oil and natural gas—would require the countries of the world to install about as much wind-generation capacity as now exists, and they'd have to do so every year.

Put another way, just to keep pace with demand growth, the wind industry will need to cover a land area of some 48,000 square miles with wind turbines per year, an area about the size of North Carolina. Even if that much land were available, no humans would want to live on the land because of the irritating noise generated by those turbines.

There are welcome developments in solar energy: Production is growing rapidly and the price of solar cells is falling. Once again, though, simple math exposes the scale problem.

Recall that we need 450 terawatt-hours per year of electricity production to keep pace with incremental demand. Germany has more installed solar-energy capacity than any other country—about 25,000 megawatts. Last year, Germany produced 19 terawatt-hours of electricity from solar. Thus, just to keep pace with the growth in global electricity demand, the world would have to install about 23 times as much solar-energy capacity as now exists in Germany, and it would have to do so year after year.

And we haven't even considered the incurable intermittency of solar and wind, a problem that requires backup capacity from fossil fuels or nuclear power.

Last month, the Harvard College Undergraduate Council held a referendum on fossil fuel divestment. (Harvard's $31 billion endowment is the largest in the country.) With about half of the undergrads voting, 72% voted in favor of divesting. Those students were apparently persuaded by the slick slogans put out by 350.org, such as "We > fossil fuels."

Harvard is among America's most prestigious schools. But it is apparent that the students who voted in favor of the divestiture proposal—and presumably to rid the world of fossil fuels—didn't, ahem, do the math.

Mr. Bryce is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute.

New paper finds the 'most convincing evidence for a sun-climate connection'

A paper published today in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics by Dr. Willie Soon finds the "Most convincing evidence for a sun-climate connection during the Holocene." Professor Soon finds "The Equator-to-Pole Temperature Gradient [EPTG] is linked to Total Solar Irradiance [TSI]," noting, "This newly discovered relationship between TSI and the EPTG represents the 'missing link' that was implicit in the empirical relationship that Soon (2009) recently demonstrated to exist between multi-decadal TSI and Arctic and North Atlantic climatic change."

Solar Irradiance Modulation of Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) Temperature Gradients: Empirical Evidence for Climate Variation on Multi-decadal Timescales

Source: Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics

Using thermometer air temperature records for the period 1850 to 2010, we present empirical evidence for a direct relationship between total solar irradiance (TSI) and the Equator-to-Pole (Arctic) surface temperature gradient (EPTG). Modulation of the EPTG by TSI is also shown to exist, in variable ways, for each of the four seasons. Interpretation of the positive relationship between the TSI and EPTG indices suggests that solar-forced changes in the EPTG may represent a hemispheric-scale relaxation response of the system to a reduced Equator-to-Pole temperature gradient, which occurs in response to an increasing gradient of incoming solar insolation. Physical bases for the TSI-EPTG relationship are discussed with respect to their connections with large-scale climate dynamics, especially a critical relationship with the total meridional poleward energy transport. Overall, evidence suggests that a net increase in the TSI, or in the projected solar insolation gradient which reflects any net increase in solar radiation, has caused an increase in both oceanic and atmospheric heat transport to the Arctic in the warm period since the 1970s, resulting in a reduced temperature gradient between the Equator and the Arctic. We suggest that this new interpretative framework, which involves the extrinsic modulation of the total meridional energy flux beyond the implicit assumptions of the Bjerknes Compensation rule, may lead to a better understanding of how global and regional climate has varied through the Holocene and even the Quaternary (the most recent 2.6 million years of Earth's history). Similarly, a reassessment is now required of the underlying mechanisms that may have governed the equable climate dynamics of the Eocene (35 to 55 million years ago) and late Cretaceous (65 to 100 million years ago), both of which were warm geological epochs. This newly discovered relationship between TSI and the EPTG represents the “missing link” that was implicit in the empirical relationship that Soon (2009) recently demonstrated to exist between multi-decadal TSI and Arctic and North Atlantic climatic change. 

Highlights

► The Equator-to-Pole Temperature Gradient is linked to Total Solar Irradiance. ► View presented of how poleward energy transport operates beyond the Bjerknes rule. ► Most convincing evidence for a sun-climate connection during the Holocene.

New paper finds a decrease in extreme weather in China from 1956-2000

A recent paper published in the Hydrological Sciences Journal examines precipitation in southern China from 1956-2000 and finds precipitation has become both less extreme and less variable. Contrary to claims of climate alarmists, the paper adds to many others demonstrating that global warming decreases extreme weather including extreme precipitation, floods, droughts, and cyclone activity. 

Furthermore, the authors find that the primary determinant of precipitation variability is the Sun, stating, "the annual precipitation in every sub-region in Guangdong province correlates with Sunspot Number with a 3-year lag."

Via the latest NIPCC Report:


Reference
Liu, D., Guo, S., Chen, X. and Shao, Q. 2012. Analysis of trends of annual and seasonal precipitation from 1956 to 2000 in Guangdong Province, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal 57: 358-369.

Writing as background for their study, Liu et al. (2012) state that "climate change is consistently associated with changes in a number of components of the hydrological cycle," including "precipitation patterns and intensity, and extreme weather events." Therefore, and in order to "provide advice for water resource management under climate change," they conducted a study of the subject in the Guangdong Province of Southern China, which occupies a land area of approximately 178,000 km2 and has a population of just over 96 million people (as of 2009).

Specifically, Liu et al. analyzed "trends of annual, seasonal and monthly precipitation in southern China (Guangdong Province) for the period 1956-2000 ... based on the data from 186 high-quality gauging stations," and they employed "statistical tests, including the Mann-Kendall rank test and wavelet analysis," in order to determine whether the precipitation series exhibited any regular trends or periodicities.

In describing their findings the four researchers report that "annual precipitation has a slightly decreasing trend in central Guangdong and slight increasing trends in the eastern and western areas of the province," but they say that "all the annual trends are not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level." In addition, they discovered that "average precipitation increases in the dry season in central Guangdong, but decreases in the wet season," such that "precipitation becomes more evenly distributed within the year." Last of all, they state that "the results of wavelet analysis show prominent precipitation with periods ranging from 10 to 12 years in every [italics added] sub-region in Guangdong Province." And comparing precipitation with the 11-year sunspot cycle, they find that "the annual precipitation in every [italics added] sub-region in Guangdong province correlates with Sunspot Number with a 3-year lag."

Rather than becoming more extreme in the face of 1956-2000 global warming, Liu et al.'s analysis of the pertinent data suggest that precipitation in China's Guangdong Province has become both less extreme and less variable. And the temporal precipitation patterns that do emerge upon proper analysis suggest that the primary player in their determination is the sun.

NOAA 2012 report finds sea levels rising at less than half the rate claimed by the IPCC

According to the latest NOAA sea level budget, global sea levels rose at only 1.1 - 1.3 mm/year from 2005-2012, which is less than half of the rate claimed by the IPCC [3.1 mm/yr] and is equivalent to less than 5 inches per century. Contrary to alarmist claims, sea level rise decelerated over the 20th century, has also decelerated since 2005, and there is no evidence of any human influence on sea levels.

The report compares sea-level rise calculated from two different methods: 1) satellite altimetry and 2) ARGO measurements of the steric [thermal expansion] component + GRACE measurements of ocean mass. The rate of sea level rise using the 2nd method [ARGO + GRACE] shows a sea level rise of only 0.2 {ARGO] + 0.1 [GRACE] = 0.3 mm/yr. Only by adding on a relatively large and highly questionable GIA adjustment [based on a model] of 0.9 mm/yr to the GRACE data do the two estimates come close to agreement. Following this questionable GIA adjustment, the ARGO + GRACE estimate is 1.1± 0.8 mm/yr as compared to the satellite altimetry estimate of 1.3 ± 0.9 mm. 

This table apparently has a typo since the text reports Total sea level change [Jason 1 & 2] is 1.3± 0.9 mm/yr 

From the NOAA report: The Budget of Recent Global Sea Level Rise 2005–2012

1.3 Ocean mass

Satellite measurements of Earth’s time-varying gravity field provided by GRACE are used to infer movement of water mass over Earth’s surface. We use Release-04 gravity field solutions from the University of Texas Center for Space Research. GRACE does not observe geocenter variations and current GRACE solutions for oblateness variations may be less accurate than satellite laser ranging (SLR) estimates [Chen and Wilson, 2008]. Therefore, we compute ocean mass variations by replacing the degree 2, order 0 coefficients with those from an SLR analysis [Cheng and Tapley, 2004] and adding an estimate of seasonal geocenter motion [Chen et al., 1999] to account for the degree 1 components of the gravity field. Recent estimates based on ocean models and GRACE fields over land suggest that trends in ocean mass from geocenter variations are on the order of a few tenths of a mm/a [Swenson et al., 2008]. We restore the atmosphere and ocean models removed from the gravity field prior to processing. To compute the equivalent sea level of ocean mass variations that can be compared to SLtotal as measured by altimetry with an inverse barometer applied, we remove the time-varying mass of the atmosphere averaged over the global ocean.

Secular geoid variations over the ocean that result from GIA must be removed from gravity observations to isolate ocean mass variations. We apply a model [Paulson et al., 2007] that effectively increases the trend in observed SLmass by 0.9 mm/a. The ice history (ICE-5G) used to produce the GIA model has an estimated uncertainty of roughly 20%. An averaging function is applied to the GRACE fields that restricts our analysis to the latitudes covered by Jason-1 (± 66°) and excludes regions within 300 km of the continental coastlines.
Mass variations in the ocean estimated from satellite gravity observations are vulnerable to leakage of gravity signals from land hydrology. Chambers et al. [2007] suggest that this could cause the secular trend in ocean mass to be underestimated by 0.17 ± 0.08 mm/a. To minimize the sum of the variance from GRACE errors and the variance of signals outside the ocean, we apply a 300-km Gaussian averaging kernel [Wahr et al., 1998]. Errors in the estimated monthly mass component of the global mean sea level are 2 mm for each month [Willis et al., 2008].

2 Sea level budget

Trends and seasonal terms for SLmass, SLsteric, and, SLtotal are determined with a least squares fit of
a sine, cosine, trend, and constant over January 2005 to December 2011. No smoothing was performed on the time series. The Argo and GRACE time series are monthly observations (N = 84).  Errors in Table 1 are estimated from the least squares fit, where we have assumed that each sample is an independent measurement.
In this analysis, the global sea level rise budget for 2005–2012 is closed when the Paulson GIA correction is applied (Table 1). The sum of steric sea level rise and the ocean mass component has a trend of 1.1 ± 0.8 mm/a over the period when the Paulson GIA mass correction is applied, well overlapping total sea level rise observed by Jason-1 and Jason-2 (1.3 ± 0.9 mm/a) within a 95% confidence interval.

The above numbers represent the globally averaged changes in sea level and have magnitudes on the order of millimeters per year. The regional patterns of sea level change, however, are many times larger and can be extremely complex. Steric sea level change is the dominant contributor to the spatial trend patterns observed for total sea level (Figure 3). While the global ocean has been gaining mass from the continents during this period, the Indian Ocean continues to show a net loss of mass to the other basins (Chambers and Willis 2009).

Massive data manipulation at NASA GISS warms most weather stations

In a talk given at the recent EIKE Climate Conference in Germany, Professor Friedrich-Karl Ewert compared the 2010 and 2012 data from 119 randomly selected stations from the NASA GISS temperature records. Prof. Ewert found "All appeared to have been tampered with. His conclusions: changes were made in most stations, probably in all. Two thirds of the changes resulted in stronger warming. A third of the stations showed enhanced cooling to simulate a homogenization." According to Dr. Ewert, the data manipulation methods include: decreasing data of  beginning sections, decreasing data between 1920 and 1950, increasing data of final sections, and deleting data of disturbing sections.

Examples of data manipulation between 2010 and 2012 at NASA GISS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Stations in orange [64.71%] were warmed between 2010 and 2012, those in blue were cooled to "simulate a homogenization"

 

Exxon predicts North America a net energy exporter by 2025

Exxon Sees Continent as Energy Exporter

By TOM FOWLER   WSJ.COM  12/11/12

North America will become a net energy exporter by 2025, thanks to a surge in oil and gas production and rapid improvements in energy efficiency, Exxon Mobil Corp. predicts in its latest long-term energy outlook.

The closely watched annual forecast of energy trends, set to be released Tuesday, concludes the growth of U.S. and Canadian oil and gas production has staying power and could lead to more international shipments of oil and gas, said Bill Colton, Exxon's vice president of corporate strategic planning, who led the study.

Exxon's forecast follows similar estimates by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency, which have recently predicted North America will produce more energy than it uses in just a few decades, a shift with geopolitical as well as economic ramifications.

Exxon predicts that an anticipated decline in coal usage by power plants will accelerate as more efficient natural-gas-fired plants are built. The Irving, Texas, company forecasts coal use will drop 33% from 2010 to 2025,substantially more than its previous 23% estimate.

"The economics of natural gas in the power-generating sector continue to look even better over time," Mr. Colton said.

The U.S. is in the midst of a renaissance of oil and gas production thanks to a combination of technologies, including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, which are unlocking deposits trapped in shale formations throughout the country.

Daily U.S. oil production reached a 15-year high in September, according to the EIA, and is expected to keep climbing. U.S. natural-gas production will outpace the nation's demand by 2020, the EIA said last week.

Growing production from Canada's oil-sands region, much of it exported to the U.S., and the continued growth of deep-water Gulf of Mexico production is also bolstering forecasts.

The net energy exports forecast for North America by Exxon don't mean the U.S. would be energy independent, however, as it will still rely heavily on Canadian crude production, Mr. Colton said.

Global energy demand will increase 35% from 2010 to 2040, with most of the increased demand coming from developing nations like India and China, the Exxon report says.

Developed regions like the U.S., Canada and Europe will see their demand flat or declining as they become more efficient, the company said. By 2040 developed nations are expected to generate 80% more economic output than in 2010 but use the same amount of energy, Mr. Colton said.

New paper finds only 1 weather station in the Arctic with warming that can't be explained by natural variation

A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters examines surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region and finds "only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic [natural] climate fluctuations" and that "Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models [models of natural climate change without human forcing]." Climate alarmists claim that the Arctic is "the canary in the coal mine" and should show the strongest evidence of a human fingerprint on climate change, yet these observations in the Arctic show that only 1 out of 109 weather stations showed a warming trend that was not explained by the natural variations in the 3 null climate models. 

Note a "null model" assumes the "null hypothesis" that climate change is natural and not forced by man-made CO2 or other alleged human influences.

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23705, 5 PP., 2012
doi:10.1029/2012GL054244

On the statistical significance of surface air temperature trends in the Eurasian Arctic region

Key Points

• I am using a novel method to test the significance of temperature trends
• In the Eurasian Arctic region only 17 stations show a significant trend
• I find that in Siberia the trend signal has not yet emerged

C. Franzke

British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK

This study investigates the statistical significance of the trends of station temperature time series from the European Climate Assessment & Data archive poleward of 60°N. The trends are identified by different methods and their significance is assessed by three different null models of climate noise. All stations show a warming trend but only 17 out of the 109 considered stations have trends which cannot be explained as arising from intrinsic [natural] climate fluctuations when tested against any of the three null models. Out of those 17, only one station exhibits a warming trend which is significant against all three null models. The stations with significant warming trends are located mainly in Scandinavia and Iceland.

New paper finds a large increase of solar radiation in Greece since 1990; dwarfs alleged effect of CO2

A new paper published in the International Journal of Climatology examines solar radiation at the Earth surface in Greece from 1993-2011 and finds a significant increase after 1990 of 0.33% per year. This upward trend in solar radiation would equate to about 14.1 Wm-2 over the past 18 years, dwarfing the alleged effect of CO2 at the Earth surface during that same period [0.13 Wm-2] by a factor of more than 108 times. The paper adds to many others showing that solar radiation at the Earth surface significantly increased beginning in the 1980's and could more than account for the tiny global warming observed [0.4C] since the ice age scare of the 1970's.

The math:

"solar constant" = 1361 Wm-2

[(1361-30%albedo)*.0033]/4 = 0.785 Wm-2 change in insolation [global average, would actually be higher for Greece being relatively close to the equator]

0.785*18 years = 14.1 Wm-2

Alleged forcing from CO2 change from 1993-2011 per the IPCC formula:

5.35*ln(391.62/357.07) = 0.49 Wm-2 at the top of the atmosphere

0.49/3.7 = 0.13 Wm-2 alleged CO2 forcing at the surface of the Earth

Prior posts on trends in solar irradiance and cloudiness

Changes in surface shortwave solar irradiance from 1993 to 2011 at Thessaloniki (Greece)

1. A. F. Bais^*, 
2. Th. Drosoglou, 
3. C. Meleti, 
4. K. Tourpali, 
5. N. Kouremeti

The variability of shortwave downward solar irradiance (SDR) received at Earth's surface over Thessaloniki, Greece for the period 1993–2011 is investigated, focusing on the effects from the aerosols variability on the irradiance trends derived for different solar zenith angles (SZA). Linear trends have been calculated for the entire dataset, for cloud-free cases, and for different SZAs, separately for each season. The global upward trend in SDR after 1990 (0.33% year⁻¹) is reconfirmed and is found to depend strongly on SZA, ranging from ∼0.1 to +0.6% year⁻¹. The long term changes in aerosols in conjunction with the local aerosol patterns result in differences of up to 0.1% year⁻¹ in the derived trends in SDR between morning and afternoon hours. Finally, based on the analysis of the cumulative sums of the differences in monthly averages of SDR from the long term mean we report signs of a slowdown in the upward trend in SDR during the beginning of the 2000s. 

New paper finds more evidence of the 'poor performance' of climate models

A new paper published in the Journal of Climate finds there has been "little to no improvement" in simulating clouds by state-of-the-art climate models. The authors note the "poor performance of current global climate models in simulating realistic [clouds]," and that the models show "quite large biases...as well as a remarkable degree of variation" with the differences between models remaining "large." 

As Dr. Roy Spencer points out in his book, 

"The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earth’s sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming — or global cooling."

This new paper is one of many that demonstrate current climate models do not even approach the level of accuracy [within 1 - 2%] or 'consensus' required to properly model global cloud cover, and therefore cannot be used as 'proof' of anthropogenic global warming, nor relied upon for future projections.

Prior posts on clouds and the abject failure of climate models

Journal of Climate 2012 ; e-View

doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00451.1

Simulating clouds with global climate models: A comparison of CMIP5 results with CMIP3 and satellite data

Axel Lauer^1,* and Kevin Hamilton^1,2

¹ International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

² Department of Meteorology, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

Abstract

Clouds are a key component of the climate system affecting radiative balances as well as the hydrological cycle. Previous studies from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) showed quite large biases in the simulated cloud climatology affecting all GCMs [global climate models] as well as a remarkable degree of variation among the models, which represented the state-of-the-art circa 2005. Here we measure the progress that has been made in recent years by comparing mean cloud properties, interannual variability, and the climatological seasonal cycle from the CMIP5 models with satellite observations and with results from comparable CMIP3 experiments. We focus on three climate-relevant cloud parameters: cloud amount, liquid water path, and cloud radiative forcing. We show that intermodel differences are still large in the CMIP5 simulations. We find some small improvements of particular cloud properties in some regions in the CMIP5 ensemble over CMIP3. In CMIP5 there is an improved agreement of the modeled interannual variability of liquid water path as well as of the modeled longwave cloud forcing over mid and high latitude oceans with observations. However, the differences in the simulated cloud climatology from CMIP3 and CMIP5 are generally small and there is very little to no improvement apparent in the tropical and subtropical regions in CMIP5.

Comparisons of the results from the coupled CMIP5 models with their atmosphere-only versions run with observed SSTs show remarkably similar biases in the simulated cloud climatologies. This suggests the treatments of subgrid-scale cloud and boundary layer processes are directly implicated in the poor performance of current GCMs [global climate models or general circulation models] in simulating realistic cloud fields.

New paper finds no evidence of a human influence on sea levels

A new paper published in the Journal of Climate examines global average sea-level rise during the 20th century and finds

1) Global sea level rise was constant throughout the 20th century, with "small or no acceleration, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing," in other words, increased CO2 has not accelerated sea-level rise.

2) The rate of glacier mass loss "was not smaller in the first than in the second half of the century," in other words, increased CO2 has not accelerated glacier mass loss.

3) Future projections of sea-level rise "depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of sea-level rise, but...such a relationship is weak or absent during the 20th century." In other words, alarmist projections of sea-level rise are based upon the false assumption of a human influence on sea-levels, which is not found by observations. 

In sum, global sea-level rise during the 20th century was constant, not accelerated, and shows no evidence of "climate change" or human influence. 

Sea levels rose more than 3 times faster from the last ice age 20,000 years ago until about 8,000 years ago than during the 20th century . During Meltwater Pulse 1A shown above, sea levels rose about 15 times faster than during the 20th century. Sea level rise has been at a relatively constant, low level during the past 8,000 years.

Journal of Climate 2012 ; e-View

doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1

Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

J. M. Gregory,^1,2 N. J. White,³ J. A. Church,³ M. F. P. Bierkens,^4,5 J. E. Box,⁶ M. R. van den Broeke,⁷ J. G.Cogley,⁸ X. Fettweis,^9,7 E. Hanna,¹⁰ P. Huybrechts,¹¹ L. F. Konikow,¹² P. W. Leclercq,⁷ B. Marzeion,¹³ J.Oerlemans,⁷ M. E. Tamisiea,¹⁴ Y. Wada,⁴ L. M. Wake,¹⁵ and R. S.W. van de Wal⁷

¹ NCAS-Climate, University of Reading, Reading, UK.

² Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.

³ CAWCR, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Australia.

⁴ Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

⁵ Deltares, Delft, The Netherlands.

⁶ Byrd Polar Research Center, and Department of Geography, Atmospheric Sciences Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, USA.

⁷ Institute for Marine and Atmospheric research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands.

⁸ Department of Geography, Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada.

⁹ Département de Géographie, Université de Liège, Liège, Belgium.

¹⁰ Department of Geography, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK.

¹¹ Earth System Sciences and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.

¹² U. S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia, USA.

¹³ Centre of Climate and Cryosphere, Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria.

¹⁴ National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK.

¹⁵ Department of Geography, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada.

Abstract

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the 20th century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction and reservoir impoundment. We have made progress towards solving the “enigma” of 20th-century GMSLR—that is, the observed GMSLR has been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. We propose that: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated owing to their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated, and was not smaller in the first than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice-sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. We show that it is possible to reconstruct the timeseries of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice-sheet. The reconstructions account for the approximate constancy of the rate of GMSLR during the 20th century, which shows small or no acceleration, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semi-empirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of our closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the 20th century.

New paper by sea-level expert concludes IPCC alarm over sea-levels is baseless

A new paper by geophysicist and sea-level expert Dr. Nils-Axel Morner examines data from satellites, tide-gauges, and field work to conclude that "At most, global average sea level is rising at a rate equivalent to 2-3 inches per century. It is probably not rising at all." Professor Morner concludes, "Since sea level is not rising, the chief concern of the potential effects of anthropogenic “global warming” – that millions of shore-dwellers the world over may be displaced as the oceans expand – is baseless."

Sea Level is Not Rising

Written by Professor Nils-Axel Mörner

Friday, 07 December 2012

Main points

• - At most, global average sea level is rising at a rate equivalent to 2-3 inches per century. It is probably not rising at all.
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• - Sea level is measured both by tide gauges and, since 1992, by satellite altimetry. One of the keepers of the satellite record told Professor Mörner that the record had been interfered with to show sea level rising, because the raw data from the satellites showed no increase in global sea level at all.
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• - The raw data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON sea-level satellites, which operated from 1993-2000, shows a slight uptrend in sea level. However, after exclusion of the distorting effects of the Great El Niño Southern Oscillation of 1997/1998, a naturally-occurring event, the sea-level trend is zero.
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• - The GRACE gravitational-anomaly satellites are able to measure ocean mass, from which sea-level change can be directly calculated. The GRACE data show that sea level fell slightly from 2002-2007.
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• - These two distinct satellite systems, using very different measurement methods, produced raw data reaching identical conclusions: sea level is barely rising, if at all.
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• - Sea level is not rising at all in the Maldives, the Laccadives, Tuvalu, India, Bangladesh, French Guyana, Venice, Cuxhaven, Korsør, Saint Paul Island, Qatar, etc.
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• - In the Maldives, a group of Australian environmental scientists uprooted a 50-year-old tree by the shoreline, aiming to conceal the fact that its location indicated that sea level had not been rising. This is a further indication of political tampering with scientific evidence about sea level.
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• - Modelling is not a suitable method of determining global sea-level changes, since a proper evaluation depends upon detailed research in multiple locations with widely-differing characteristics. The true facts are to be found in nature itself.
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• - Since sea level is not rising, the chief ground of concern at the potential effects of anthropogenic “global warming” – that millions of shore-dwellers the world over may be displaced as the oceans expand – is baseless.
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• - We are facing a very grave, unethical “sea-level-gate”.

Conclusions

Observational facts indicate that sea level is by no means rapidly rising. It is quite stable. This is the case in key sites like the Maldives, Bangladesh, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Saint Paul Island, Qatar, French Guyana, Venice, and northwest Europe. Tide gauges tend to exaggerate rising trends because of subsidence and compaction. Full stability over the last 30-50 years is indicated in sites like Tuvalu, India, the Maldives (and also the Laccadives to the north of the Maldives), Venice (after subtracting the subsidence factor), Cuxhaven (after subtracting the subsidence factor), and Korsør (a stable hinge for the last 8 ,000 years).

Satellite altimetry is shown to record variations around a stable zero level for the entire period 1992- 2010. Reported trends in the order of 3 mm/year represent “interpretational records,” after the application of subjective “personal calibrations” which cannot be substantiated by observational facts.

Therefore, we can now return to Fig. 1 and claim that the “models” (upper curve) provide an illusory picture of a strong sea-level rise and that the “observations” (lower curve) provide a good reconstruction of the actual changes in sea level over the last 170 years, with stability over the last 40 years. We can now return to the spectrum of present-day sea level rates (Fig. 2) and evaluate the various values proposed. This is illustrated in Fig. 16. Only rates in the order of 0.0 mm/year to maximum 0.7 mm/year seem realistic. This fits well with the values proposed for year 2100 by INQUA (2000) and Mörner (2004), but differs significantly from the values proposed by the IPCC (2001, 2007).

If sea level is not rising fast, and is not going to rise fast, then the greatest threat imagined by the IPCC disappears. The idea of an ever-rising sea drowning tens of thousands of people and forcing hundreds of thousands or even millions of people to become sea-level refugees is simply a grave error, hereby revealed as an illusion.

The true facts are to be found in nature itself. They are certainly not to be found at the modelling consoles. Some data depend heavily on interpretation. Other evidence, however, is clear and straightforward. Consider trees. I have often said that “trees don’t lie”: see e.g. Mörner, 2007c. In that paper, I described the significance of the lonely tree by the shore in the Maldives which indicated that sea level had been stable for 50-60 years. A group of Australian environmental “scientists”, realizing that the location of the tree was fatal to their notion of ever-rising sea level, uprooted it and left it, still in leaf, lying on the strand. There are also the trees on the beach in Sundarban, indicating significant coastal erosion (caused in part by the clearance of mangroves to make way for shrimp-farms) but no sea level rise at all (Mörner, 2007c, 2010a).

I hope that by this research we can free the world from the artificial crisis to which the IPCC has condemned it. There will be no extensive or disastrous global sea-level rise in the near future. That was the main threat in the IPCC’s arsenal of bugaboos, and now it is gone.