Friday, January 30, 2015
Thursday, January 29, 2015
Wednesday, January 28, 2015
The One Percent, Updated
Piketty and Saez have updated their famous one-percent graph to 2013. It is above. (Click on graphic to enlarge.)
One thing that commentators sometimes fail to notice is that the big increase in the one percent's income share came between 1980 and 2000. Since 2000, it has fluctuated but without much of a trend. Why, then, are we all talking about income inequality only now? I am not sure. One hypothesis is that we don't worry about inequality when everyone is doing well. Another hypothesis is that we now have a president with a political ideology that sees inequality as especially pernicious.
One thing that commentators sometimes fail to notice is that the big increase in the one percent's income share came between 1980 and 2000. Since 2000, it has fluctuated but without much of a trend. Why, then, are we all talking about income inequality only now? I am not sure. One hypothesis is that we don't worry about inequality when everyone is doing well. Another hypothesis is that we now have a president with a political ideology that sees inequality as especially pernicious.
Tuesday, January 27, 2015
The 2014 Employment Boom
Why did employment grow by about 3 million in 2014? Here is the answer from a new paper:
We measure the effect of unemployment benefit duration on employment. We exploit the variation induced by the decision of Congress in December 2013 not to reauthorize the unprecedented benefit extensions introduced during the Great Recession. Federal benefit extensions that ranged from 0 to 47 weeks across U.S. states at the beginning of December 2013 were abruptly cut to zero. To achieve identification we use the fact that this policy change was exogenous to cross-sectional differences across U.S. states and we exploit a policy discontinuity at state borders. We find that a 1% drop in benefit duration leads to a statistically significant increase of employment by 0.0161 log points. In levels, 1.8 million additional jobs were created in 2014 due to the benefit cut.
Monday, January 26, 2015
Lazear on Wage Stagnation
Eddie writes:
The share of the private workforce employed in the BLS-defined industries “financial activities” and “hospitals” decreased by about 5% between 2010 and 2014. Jobs in these industries pay 29% and 24%, respectively, above the economy mean. Because a smaller share of labor is working those high-wage industries, the typical job in the economy is now lower-paying than in 2010....
So what accounts for the relative decline in jobs in high-wage hospitals and finance? One obvious possibility is increased regulation. The Affordable Care Act for hospitals and Dodd-Frank for finance both passed in 2010, the year real wages began to decline.
Saturday, January 24, 2015
The Rise of Economists
Justin Wolfers documents:
in recent years around one in 100 [New York Times] articles mentions the term “economist,” ....Far fewer articles mention the terms historian or psychologist, while sociologists, anthropologists and demographers rarely rate a mention.
Saturday, January 17, 2015
Friday, January 16, 2015
Wednesday, January 14, 2015
Leave the laptop in your dorm
I have long been skeptical about students using laptops in class to take notes. I had the sense that their brains were less engaged and that they were acting more like stenographers than students. But I was not entirely sure my hunch was right.
According to research described in this article, it was.
According to research described in this article, it was.
Sunday, January 11, 2015
The New Economics of the Left
According to this article, some members of the Democratic party are moving from mainstream to heterodox economic theory. If Bernie Sanders runs for the Democratic presidential nomination, as now appears likely, this development should keep things entertaining for us econonerds.
Tuesday, January 06, 2015
Monday, January 05, 2015
An Odd Question
Those who attended either of the sessions I was involved with at the ASSA meeting know that the audience included some hecklers. During the first session, I was the target. During the second, Larry Summers was. (At one point, the moderator Bob Hall threatened to call security.) Here is a Washington Post article about the hecklers.
After the first session was over, one of the hecklers came up to me and asked, "How much money have the Koch brothers paid you?" My answer, of course, was "not a penny."
I don't find it odd that people disagree with me. I am always open to the possibility that I am wrong about lots of things, and I much enjoy talking with students and colleagues who have views different from mine. But I do find it odd that people who disagree with me are sometimes quick to question my sincerity. If I am wrong, it is sincere wrong-headedness, not the result of being on some plutocrat's payroll, as some on the left want to believe.
The hecklers probably limit their own effectiveness by questioning the motives of those who disagree with them. I have found that to convince other people, it is usually best not to assume your own moral superiority but rather to talk with them as equals who just happen to have a different point of view.
After the first session was over, one of the hecklers came up to me and asked, "How much money have the Koch brothers paid you?" My answer, of course, was "not a penny."
I don't find it odd that people disagree with me. I am always open to the possibility that I am wrong about lots of things, and I much enjoy talking with students and colleagues who have views different from mine. But I do find it odd that people who disagree with me are sometimes quick to question my sincerity. If I am wrong, it is sincere wrong-headedness, not the result of being on some plutocrat's payroll, as some on the left want to believe.
The hecklers probably limit their own effectiveness by questioning the motives of those who disagree with them. I have found that to convince other people, it is usually best not to assume your own moral superiority but rather to talk with them as equals who just happen to have a different point of view.
Thursday, January 01, 2015
Me at the ASSA Meeting
I have a busy few days at the upcoming ASSA meeting in Boston. For those interested, I will be involved in the following public events:
Jan 03, 2015 8:00 am, Sheraton Boston, Independence Ballroom
American Economic Association
Jan 03, 2015 2:30 pm, Sheraton Boston, Independence Ballroom
American Economic Association
Jan 03, 2015 8:00 am, Sheraton Boston, Independence Ballroom
American Economic Association
A Discussion of Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the 21st Century" (D3)
Presiding: N. Gregory Mankiw (Harvard University)
Capital and Wealth in the 21st Century
Capital Taxation in the 21st Century
Yes, r>g. So what?
About Capital in the 21st century
Jan 03, 2015 2:30 pm, Sheraton Boston, Independence Ballroom
American Economic Association
The Economics of Secular Stagnation (A1)
Presiding: Robert E. Hall (Stanford University)
Secular Stagnation: A Supply Side View
Secular Stagnation: A Demand Side View
Does History Lend Any Support to the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis?
Discussants:
Robert E. Hall (Stanford University)
William Nordhaus (Yale University)
N. Gregory Mankiw (Harvard University)