Mapping the New World Order

Mapping the “New World Order” 

from: http://www.newgeography.com

  

Forget about “East” and “West;” forget about the Euro-zone;  forget about the so-called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).  Here is the New World Order according to the New Geography people: based on shared cultural, almost “tribal” affiliations, we have the Anglosphere, the Sinosphere, and the Indosphere, among others.  Interesting demographic projections and theories, but lousy maps!  And what happened to the Arab/Islamic world?  Not a major player in this New World Order?  Talk about the original home of the “shared cultural/tribal affiliations”!!
The New Geography people (my favorite blogger frienemies) recently released a document called “The New World Order.”  http://nwo.li.com/book/index.html  It is quite interesting to read, although, as usual, I take issue with some of their interpretations of data and conclusions.  Also, a word of warning:  They love to map things, but they keep using this insane-looking Mercator projection for global-scale data.  I am beginning to think they do it in an ironic way, or else to prove that no left-leaning cartographers are going to make THEM give up their western imperialist perspective on the world!.  Another thing they do that bugs me: their choropleth maps very often show absolute numbers rather than percentages or ratios.  This is, of course, a very misleading way to present data on maps. 

Having said that, though, the document is well worth a closer look.  The chapter titles give a pretty good idea of what the publication discusses in detail: 

§  The New World Order: Mapping the Future 

§  India Conquers 

§  Inside the Sinosphere 

§  Vietnam: The UnChina 

§  The Anglosphere: We are not dead yet 

§  Women’s Maps 

§  Six Adults and One Child

The Indian diaspora, from the chapter "India Conquers"

Most of this information has been reported in past months on the New Geography blog, but the new document puts it all together as a unified theory of how the economies and geo-politics of the world’s nations have aligned and re-aligned themselves since the end of the Cold War.  The way Joel Kotkin and his co-authors imagine it, the world is re-aligning itself based on shared cultural, almost “tribal,” spheres of influence.  See excerpt below from the Introduction chapter, and a selection of maps from some of the chapters. 

“The fall of the Soviet Union nearly a quarter of a century ago forced geographers and policy makers to rip up their maps. No longer divided into ‘west’ and ‘east,’ the world order lost many of its longtime certainties.  In our attempt to look at the emerging world order, we have followed the great Arab historian Ibn Khaldun’s notion that ethnic and cultural ties are more important than geographic patterns or levels of economic development.  In history, shared values have been critical to the rise of spheres of influence across the world.  Those that have projected power broadly – the Greek, Roman, Arab, Chinese, Mongol, and British empires – shared intense ties of kinship and common cultural origins.  Of course, much has been written about the rising class of largely cosmopolitan “neo nomads”, who traipse from one global capital to another.  But, for the most part, these people largely serve more powerful interests based on what we may call tribal groupings: the Indian sphere of influence, the Sinosphere, and the Anglosphere.

Our approach departs from the conventional wisdom developed after the Cold War.  At that time it was widely assumed that, as military power gave way to economic influence and regional alliances, the world would evolve into broad geographic groups.  A classic example was presented in Jacques Attali’s Millennium: Winners and Losers in the Coming World Order. Attali, a longtime advisor to French President Francois Mitterrand, envisioned the world divided into three main blocs: a European one, centered around France and Germany, a Japan-dominated Asian zone, and a weaker United States-dominated North America.  Time has not been kind to this vision, which was adopted by groups like the Trilateral Commission.  The European Union proved less united and much weaker economically and politically than Attali and his ilk might have hoped.  The notion of Japan, now rapidly aging and in a two decades long slump, at the head of Asia, seems frankly risible.  Although also suffering from the recession, North America over the past quarter century has done better in terms of growth and technology development, and has more vibrant demographics than either the EU or Japan….

[T]he Indian and Chinese spheres are united by deep-seated commonalities: food, language, historical legacy and national culture.  A Taiwanese technologist who works in Chengdu while tapping his network across east Asia, America, and Europe does so largely as a Chinese; an Indian trader in Hong Kong does business with others of his “tribe” in Africa, Great Britain and the former Soviet Republics in east Asia.  Beyond national borders, these spheres extend from their home countries to a host of global cities, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, London, New York, Dubai, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, where they have established significant colonies.  The prospects for the last great global grouping, the Anglosphere, are far stronger than many expect.  Born out of the British Empire, and then the late 20th Century, the Anglosphere may be losing its claim to global hegemony, but it remains the first among the world’s ethnic networks in terms of everything from language and global culture to technology. More than the Indian Sphere and Sinosphere, the Anglosphere has shown a remarkable ability to incorporate other cultures and people.  In the future, we will see the rise of other networks, as well.  An example would be the Vietnamese sphere of influence, which reflects both the rise of that particular Asian country, and the influence of its scattered diaspora across the world.  Culture is key to understanding the Vietnamese sphere: the country’s history includes long periods of Chinese domination that made it resistant to being absorbed into the Sinosphere. Instead, as we argue, Vietnam is likely to be more closely allied, first and foremost, with the United States and its allies. 

Finally, our maps deal with basic demographic issues that will dominate the future.  We trace the global rise of women to prominence in business, education and politics.  Although Western nations still lead in female empowerment, we argue that the most significant changes are taking place in developing countries, notably in Latin America.  It will be these women – in Sao Paolo, Mumbai, and Maseru – who increasingly will shape the future female influence on the world. Yet this positive development also contains the seed of dangers.  Female empowerment, along with urbanization, has had a depressing effect on fertility rates, seen first in the highly developed countries, and now increasingly in developing ones.  Looking out to 2030, many countries, including the United States and China, will be facing massive problems posed by too many seniors and not enough working age people.  As has always been the case, the emerging world order will face its own crises in the future, with, no doubt, unexpected, unpredictable results.  But our bet is solidly on the three spheres of influence which constitute the bulk of this report.”  Text, maps, and graphs from:  http://nwo.li.com/book/index.html 

Anglosphere, Sinosphere, and Indosphere: Share of the world's GDP, 2010

GDP per Capita (Purchasing Power Parity)

The linguistic influence of the Anglosphere

A surprising depiction of female entrepreneurship.  

Countries that are colored in a darker red have a ratio of fewer adults per child.

NYC Marathon Route's Changing Demographics

“The New York City Marathon course has changed little since it first wound its way through all five boroughs in 1976.  But the neighborhoods along the route have seen significant change: they are mostly richer and the ethnic makeup of many of them has shifted.”  See interactive map and graphs at: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/11/05/nyregion/the-evolving-neighborhoods-along-the-marathon.html

Today was the running of the 35th Marathon in New York City through the five boroughs [*].  The city has certainly changed substantially since 1976, and this graphic portrayal of the ethnic and economic shifts along its route is emblematic of those changes.  It is probably the case that ANY 26-mile route cutting through all five boroughs would yield similar findings of fairly drastic socio-demographic change, but this route happens to be the “face” of NYC for the runners from many different countries as well as millions of viewers around the world. There are big demographic changes in areas that gentrified over the past three decades, but also very visible changes in the landscape and land uses themselves due to said gentrification.  

Article: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/05/sports/marathon-route-gives-snapshots-of-change-in-new-york.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

[*] Earlier Marathons in NYC – 1970-1975 - did not follow this 5-borough route, but basically just looped around Central Park.

Thanks to Kristen Grady for sending me the link to the interactive map.

Non-Hispanic White Population along Marathon route, 1980 and 2009

Non-Hispanic Black Population along Marathon route, 1980 and 2009

Puerto Rican Population along Marathon route, 1980 and 2009

Mexican Population along Marathon route, 1980 and 2009

Asian Population along Marathon route, 1980 and 2009

The Map of America’s Tomorrow – A Visualization of the Changing Face of America

U.S. Counties projected to have more than 50% minority population in 2040.  

Source: Policy Link.org

Policy Link has put out an animated time series map of U.S. counties showing minority population percentages from 1990, 2000, 2010, and their projections of minority population percentages for 2020, 2030, and 2040.  This was just published on-line a few days ago, and has become something of a flash point in the media, as well as amongst entities like the Tea Party, as you can imagine. 

The upshot of their analysis is that by 2042, the nation will be a majority of people of color.  In other words, a majority of those who we refer to today as “minorities.”  Although these populations will not be the majority in all parts of the country, in many counties they will constitute close to 100% of the population.  It would be nice to see these maps alongside some pop density maps, so we could compare high percentages with high absolute numbers of population. It is interesting to contemplate the implications of this geographic distribution of people of color, who will predominate in the rural south and southwest, and in the most highly urbanized areas throughout the nation. 

This is what the Policy Link website says about their map series: 

“PolicyLink has released ‘The Map of America’s Tomorrow,’ a new interactive time-lapse map showing – for the first time – the growth of people of color in America from 1990 through 2040.  Census projections have long shown that people of color will soon be our nation's majority.  And yet there's been no visualization of what this future will actually look like – until now.

In less than 24 hours, the map has received over 100,000 views (and counting) and has been viewed in 135 countries.  Harlem Children Zone's Geoff Canada used it as the centerpiece for a presentation he gave on ‘How to End Poverty’ at the Google Zeitgeist Festival in London this week.  The Daily Beast's Andrew Sullivan has also joined in, describing the video yesterday as ‘The Browning of America.’

“‘This map makes crystal clear just how dramatically the face of America is changing – and how quickly,’ said Angela Glover Blackwell, Founder & CEO of PolicyLink. ‘Already, nearly half of all young people are of color, and by 2042, people of color will become our nation's majority.  Clearly, this snapshot of our future has struck a chord, leaving no doubt that we must invest in and start building the foundation of tomorrow's America today. Let's start now.’

This map is the first installment of ‘America's Tomorrow: Equity in a Changing Nation’ – a new multimedia series exploring America's changing demographics and the leaders who are making a difference.” 

You can see the animated time-series map, 1990-2040, at:

http://www.policylink.org/site/c.lkIXLbMNJrE/b.7086035/k.67C/America8217s_Tomorrow.htm

The methodology used for the projections are given in the Technical Summary by Woods and Poole, and summarized in part here:

“The methods used by Woods & Poole to generate the county projections proceed in four stages.  First, forecasts to 2040 of total United States personal income, earnings by industry, employment by industry, population, inflation, and other variables are made. In the 2011 Woods & Poole model the U.S. forecast included an estimate of the 2008-09 recession using preliminary employment data for 2009 and 2010 from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Second, the country is divided into 179 Economic Areas (EAs) as defined by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).  The EAs are aggregates of contiguous counties that attempt to measure cohesive economic regions in the United States (a list of all EAs and their component counties can be found in Appendix 6 following this chapter); in the 2011 Woods & Poole model, EA definitions released by the BEA in May 2007 are used. For each EA, a projection is made for employment, using an “export-base” approach; in some cases, the employment projections are adjusted to reflect the results of individual EA models or exogenous information about the EA economy.  The employment projection for each EA is then used to estimate earnings in each EA.  The employment and earnings projections then become the principal explanatory variables used to estimate population and number of households in each EA.

The third stage is to project population by age, sex, and race for each EA on the basis of net migration rates projected from employment opportunities.

For stages two and three, the U.S. projection is the control total for the EA projections. The fourth stage replicates stages two and three except that it is performed at the county level, using the EAs as the control total for the county projections."

Technical description of methodology at:

http://www.woodsandpoole.com/pdfs/TECH11.pdf

Also, for those interested in health equity issues, check out the Policy Link Center for Health and Place at:

http://www.policylink.org/site/c.lkIXLbMNJrE/b.5136633/k.F267/PolicyLink_Center_for_Health_and_Place.htm

And also a publication called “Why Place and Race Matters,” at

http://www.policylink.org/atf/cf/%7B97c6d565-bb43-406d-a6d5-eca3bbf35af0%7D/WPRM%20FULL%20REPORT%20(LORES).PDF

The New Census

Bronx Ethnic Concentration by Block, 2010.  No big surprise, the Bronx is as diverse and as segregated as ever.  Map by Bill Bosworth, Bronx Data Center.

The 2010 Census

The new Census data is out now for New York State, at least the basic stuff.  It has the counts of Hispanics, Whites, Blacks, Asians, population over 18, vacant housing – all the necessary variables for delineating the new Congressional Districts for voting (the contentious redistricting process), which is, after all, the main purpose of the Census, despite how we geographers and other researchers have found myriad other uses for it!  This basic Census data is mandated by law to be available by April 1^st of this year for all the states, and at some point after that the rest of the data will be released as it becomes ready. 

Bill Bosworth, Professor Emeritus and Director of the Bronx Data Center, has, as always, gotten the jump on the rest of us with the new Census data.  He has not only gotten the 2010 data into his computer, but has produced maps and comparative analyses with it already. 

Prof. Bosworth has a very interesting technique for mapping multiple variables at once.  For instance, for the map of Ethnic Concentrations above, he maps each block according to its majority population.  This yields a quite complete snapshot of overall distribution of racial and ethnic groups and allows one to view the data without confusion on one map, as opposed to mapping percentages of each racial/ethnic group separately.  This only works well, of course, because the Bronx is highly segregated, and most of its blocks are a majority of one population group or another.  In an area with more mixture, it is likely that no one group would dominate a block.  In the Bronx, most of the blocks are dominated by one group, as you can see in the map above. 

Comparing the 2000 and 2010 maps of blocks having an absolute majority of one ethnic/racial group, it seems that the Bronx is even more polarized now than it was 10 years ago, with more blocks having a 75-100% majority of one group, and fewer pockets of other groups interspersed in areas dominated by a different group.  This is especially true of the areas with majority Hispanic population.  These areas now contain a lower percentage of non-Hispanics than in 2000.  In the non-Hispanic Black majority areas, the reverse is true, and these areas seem to have become less Black and more mixed.  In the non-Hispanic White areas, some are now more mixed, and some now have an even higher percentage of White population. 

However, these maps are dealing in percentages only, per block, and don’t reflect the absolute total numbers of the various sub-populations in the Bronx.  Overall, according to Prof. Bosworth’s calculations based on the new Census, the non-Hispanic White population is now a little less than 11% of the total Bronx population, down from more than 14% in 2000.  In general, both the non-Hispanic Black and non-Hispanic White groups lost population in the Bronx since the 2000 Census.  The Hispanic population has grown by some 5 or 6 %, and total population in terms of absolute numbers is up for the Bronx overall (about 4% increase over 2000).

Unique Features of the Bronx:

            Some interesting and unique features of the Bronx, from the Bronx Data Center’s website:

In 2000, 48.4% of The Bronx population was Hispanic.  By 2009, the Census Bureau Population Estimates put the figure at 52%. [The 2010 Census puts the Hispanic population at 53.5%.]  In the eastern half of the United States, only Miami-Dade County, Florida has a higher proportion of Hispanics.  All the other counties with higher Hispanic rates are in the southwest, mostly along the Mexican border.

Over 30% of The Bronx population refused to identify themselves with "traditional" racial categories in the 2000 census.  Instead of the traditional categories, people identify themselves either as "some other race," or as "multiracial."  This figure rose to 36.3% in 2004, and to 39.8% by 2007.  In the 2004 data for all counties, no other county exceeded 30% in the eastern half of the U.S.

In 2000, only 14.5% of the Bronx population identified themselves as "Non-Hispanic White."  The 2009 Census Bureau estimate is 12.4%.  [The 2010 Census states it as 10.9%.]  In the eastern half of the U.S., only three counties have a smaller percentage of non-Hispanic Whites: the Menominee Indian reservation in Wisconsin, and two overwhelmingly Black counties: Jefferson in Mississippi, and Macon in Alabama.

In 2000, the Bronx was one of five counties in the U.S. where over 30% of households consisted of families headed by single women (2007: 30.0%).  Three of the five are Indian reservations in South Dakota; the fourth is Holmes County, Mississippi.

There’s lots more on the website, so check it out!  If you don’t know much about the Census, Prof. Bosworth’s webpage is a great primer on the topic. 

http://www.lehman.edu/deannss/bronxdatactr/discover/bxtext.htm

The Nation’s Mean Center of Population

On the Census website itself is a cool map animation of how the Mean Center of Population of the U.S. has moved since the first Census in 1790.  It has pretty much moved steadily west and a little bit south each decade from the beginning.  The Census Bureau estimates that the current (2010) Mean Center of Population is Plato, Missouri.  “The center is determined as the place where an imaginary, flat, weightless and rigid map of the United States would balance perfectly if all residents were of identical weight…..Historically, the center of population has followed a trail that reflects the sweep of the nation's brush stroke across America's population canvas.  The sweep reflects the settling of the frontier, waves of immigration and the migration west and south.  Since 1790, the location has moved in a westerly, then a more southerly pattern.  In 2000, the new center of population was more than 1,000 miles from the first center in 1790, which was near Chestertown, Md.” (U.S. Bureau of the Census website).  http://www.census.gov/geo/www/cenpop/MeanCenter.html