Map of the Week 2-13-2012:Mapping the Impacts of Four Degrees

This map was produced by the Met Office, the UK’s National Weather Service.  See the interactive version at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/impacts/high-end/map

“In order to understand more about the human impact of high-end climate change, the Met Office Hadley Centre has produced a map outlining some of the impacts that may occur if the global average temperature rises by 4  C (7  F) above the pre-industrial climate average.

Although the average temperature rise over the globe is 4  C (7  F) the projection on the map shows that this average rise will not be spread uniformly across the globe.  The land will heat up more quickly than the sea, and high latitudes, particularly the Arctic, will have larger temperature increases.  The average land temperature will be 5.5  C above pre-industrial levels.  The map was produced by the Met Office (on behalf of HM Government), but contains contributions from climate scientists from other institutions conducting the latest research on climate impacts.  You can view it as an interactive map online or as a layer on Google Earth.

The impacts on human activity shown on the map are only a selection of those that may occur, and highlight the severe effects on water availability, agricultural productivity, extreme temperatures and drought, the risk of forest fire and sea level rise.

•          Agricultural yields are expected to decrease for all major cereal crops in all major regions of production.
•         The availability of water will be affected by melting of glaciers, particularly in areas such as the Indus basin and western China, where much of the river flow comes from melt water.
•          Population increases, combined with changes in river run-off as a result of changes in rainfall patterns and increased temperatures, could mean that by 2080 significantly less water is available to approximately one billion people already living under water stress.
•          For many areas of the world sea-level rise, combined with the effect of storms, will threaten low-lying coastal communities.  There are often very dense populations living along coasts, as well as important infrastructure and high-value agricultural land, which makes the impact of coastal flooding particularly severe.  The intrusion of salt water on farming land, and the risk to lives of flooding events could affect millions of people worldwide every year.

            The impacts shown on the map are frightening, and the list is not exhaustive.  However, the map represents a world where climate change has gone unmitigated, where we have continued to emit greenhouse gases at the rates we are today.  If we continue to do this, then the likelihood of the planet warming by 4  C (7  F) increases, and as it does, so the risk of these impacts being realised also increases.

By taking strong and effective action to curb greenhouse gas emissions, it may be possible to limit this temperature rise to 2  C (4  F).  Although this would still bring some adverse impacts, the risk of the very severest impacts, as shown in the Met Office map, is significantly reduced.” From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/future

Download the 4^o Google Earth climate change map at:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/future/google-earth

Predicted Temperature Rise Relative to Pre-Industrial Levels - The globes show the latest results from the Met Office's climate change research.  The data are based on a mid-range IPCC emissions scenario A1B.  

“The computer climate models used for the majority of the work at the Met Office Hadley Centre are detailed three-dimensional representations of major components of the climate system.  They are mostly run on the Met Office's supercomputers.  As part of the Met Office's Unified Model, the atmosphere component of the climate model represents the same physical processes as that used for operational weather forecasts.  However, due to the longer timescales involved in climate prediction, other components of the climate system are added including:

·         three-dimensional representation of the ocean and sea ice;

·         an interactive carbon cycle model;

·         interactive atmospheric chemistry models;

·         the coupled atmosphere - ocean - carbon-cycle - chemistry model is known as an earth system model.

For both weather and climate prediction, the Met Office also runs its models at higher resolution over particular regions.  Currently regional climate models are typically run at 25 km resolution.”  From: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate-change/guide/future/projections

Population and Climate Change

This map shows areas at the intersection of high population growth rates, declines in agricultural production, high water stress or scarcity, low resilience to climate change, and lack of available reproductive planning.  Source: Population Action International (Healthy Families Healthy Planet)

Continuing with the global perspective, the Population Action International (Healthy Families Healthy Planet) website has some nice interactive maps that show how the relationships amongst climate change impacts, demographic trends, and reproductive health needs are likely to affect countries’ abilities to adapt to climate change.  (Thanks, Elia Machado, for sending the link.) http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Interactive_Databases/climate_map.shtml

So much is unknown about climate change - there are numerous predictive models used to estimate the magnitude of sea level rise and other likely climate change-related phenomena, but the predictions vary considerably in extent and severity.  However, we know that adverse health impacts resulting from climate change have the potential to be dire in many parts of the world, and will likely affect almost every place to some degree.  Climate change will be coupled with rapid population growth rates in some places, reduced agricultural yields due to drought, water shortages and water stress, and the inability of less developed countries to mitigate these effects through increased resources.  In some places, all these negative factors will converge at once, and these places tend to be areas already at risk.  People in poorer areas are generally more vulnerable to natural disasters, such as hurricanes, flooding, landslides, and other extreme weather-related events, which are likely to increase in both number of events and severity, with global climate change.  These populations have fewer personal resources; less support from their governments for disaster preparedness, planning and management, evacuation, mitigation, and recovery; less community support infrastructure; and are therefore less resilient to recover from the impacts of climate change.  Climate change is therefore an environmental justice issue - actually, it will probably become the grand-daddy of all environmental justice issues in terms of impacts and numbers of people affected.

Possible health impacts from climate change include:

a.) cardiovascular and respiratory disease from increase in air pollution;

b.) vulnerability to kidney failure and heat stroke from extreme heat events;

c.) proliferation of vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, West Nile virus, Dengue fever, Lyme disease, encephalitis) from increases in the extent of vector habitat due to warming trends;

d.) water-borne diseases (e.g., cholera, cryptosporidium, giardia, E. coli infection, dysentery, typhoid) from increased flooding and resultant contamination of water, as well as from water stress and scarcity;

e.) health impacts due to salt intrusion into groundwater from sea level rise;

f.) increased vulnerability amongst the disabled, elderly, immune-compromised, and those with other serious health conditions from floods and other climate change-related hazards.

g.) reduction in agricultural productivity, food security, and subsequent increase in famine, malnutrition, and food- and diet-related illnesses. 

All of these impacts are exacerbated by rapid population growth rates and failing environmental infrastructure. 

Age Structure/Population Pyramids

Shape of things to come – another nice interactive feature, click on country and get time-line of population pyramids. http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Reports/The_Shape_of_Things_to_Come_Interactive_Database/Index.shtml

Reproductive Risk

Source:  International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD)

Narrowing the gender gap

“Improving the status of women is critical to achieving sustainable development. The ICPD Programme of Action advocates programmes and policies that increase women’s participation in government, promote education for girls, and increase employment opportunities for women, among other actions.”

Meeting health needs

“Promoting women’s health and safe motherhood is a key objective of the ICPD Programme of Action—and increasing women’s access to safe, affordable and effective reproductive health care and services is critical. These include family planning information and contraceptives, skilled care at childbirth, safe abortion services in countries where abortion is legal, and HIV/STI prevention, treatment and management.”  Source:  International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD)  http://www.populationaction.org/cd2015/reportCard/index.php

Human Planet: The most remarkable species of all, living in the wildest places on earth

Now, if you would like to see something totally uplifting, check out this short video from the BBC – it contains amazing photography of our planet (much of it taken from above) and the wildly varying habitats in which our species lives.  Soaring and achingly beautiful - even though most of us don’t live in any of these wild places anymore.  It makes you want to root for the humans!  (Thanks, Bobbie Menendez, for sending this.)  http://www.youtube.com/watch_popup?v=2HiUMlOz4UQ&vq=large

Population Growth Infographic
And here is another short video, taken from Mr. Rozzy Roo's Science Blog: a Population Growth Infographic. "Overpopulation and overconsumption underlie every environmental problem we have today."  http://www.mrrozzyroo.com/2011/03/population-growth-infographic.html (Original source: MIND - Media Independent Network)