Now that the Terri Sciavo debacle is all but over, perhaps it's time for me to weigh in. (Or not - please continue on to the next blog on your list.)
I've been fascinated by this case, because I am a parent and also a psychologist, and the case is a witches' brew of ethics, neuroscience, politics, devotion, and (above all, in my opinion) critical reasoning and decision making. Yesterday I was revising a chapter on human reasoning and decision making, specifically, a section dealing with the
Wason four-card task.
In
this task, people are shown a deck of cards. Each card has a letter printed on one side and a numeral on the other. The task is to decide whether rule like "If a card has a vowel on one side, the number on the other side is even," is true. Four cards are dealt such that one consonant, one vowel, one even number and one odd number are showing. The person trying to test the rule is allowed to turn over two cards.
Almost always, the person will choose to turn over the vowel (E, to see if the number on the back is even) and the even number (4, to see if the letter on the back is a vowel; Wason, 1969). The first choice is correct, and consistent with the logical rule
modus ponens, or "mode of affirmation." The second choice is incorrect, and represents the logical error of "affirming the consequent." Why is choosing the 4 an error? It is because the rule says nothing about what should be on the back of consonants, so either a vowel or a consonant could appear on the back of the even number and the rule could still be true. The card that should be selected is the odd number, because if a vowel appears on the back then the rule is disconfirmed. This represents the use of the rule
modus tollens, or "mode of disconfirmation."
Why is it so hard for people to see that turning over the odd number is the appropriate choice? It is because this choice embodies a search for information that
disconfirms the rule. Looking for disconfirming evidence is something that we (human reasoners) are not very good at. Our tendency to see only the evidence that confirms our beliefs is called
confirmation bias. Some have speculated that confirmation bias is the basis for almost all of our most spectacular decision-making failures (Silverman, 1992), such as the downing of
Iran Air Flight 655, or the tragedy of the Japanese fishing vessel
Ehime Maru.
Confirmation bias is everywhere. Even trained, skeptical scientists exhibit confirmation bias when the belief under question is a pet theory. It is one of the strongest factors involved in maintaining belief in the paranormal, particularly
clairvoyance. A psychic predicts a devastating earthquake in India sometime in the summer of 2004. More or less on schedule, in more or less the right geographic area, the earthquake occurs, reinforcing the credulous belief in his extraordinary psychic abilities. The dozens, or hundreds, of other failed predictions made by the same psychic are ignored, or rather, they aren't even remembered, because they are inconsistent with the belief.
As a more personal example, I might have a dream that my daughter is ill, wake up, and call her to make sure she's okay. Sure enough, she has the flu. This reinforces my belief that my daughter and I have a strong psychic bond that transcends geographical distance. I don't remember all the other nights I had the same dream, and I called her only to find out she was just fine (and annoyed that I called her so early in the morning). Confirmation rules the day.
What the heck does this have to do with Terri Schiavo? I have seen
Terri Schiavo's CAT scan, and as I have some neuroscience training, I can claim some expertise in evaluating it, although I am not a physician, or a neurologist, and there are a lot of
people better qualified than I am that you should pay attention to. I also found an
unsubstantiated online reference suggesting that Terri Schiavo's EEG is flat, indicating no significant cognitive activity. With this evidence in hand I state my belief that the person of Terri Schiavo no longer exists, and that what remains is about as human as the cushions on my sofa. There is no chance that her condition will improve with therapy; there is no brain tissue left to be affected by therapy. This is my belief as a professional.
But I am also a mother. If my daughter were in a similar condition, CAT scan or EEG evidence would not enter into my belief that she could improve with therapy. Every time she reflexively smiled at me would confirm my belief that she was still in that shell of a body, waiting for me to help her emerge. And I wouldn't be able to see that those reflexive smiles were made at random times and focused on the lamp, now the ceiling, then a point about two feet to my left. Even if it happen only one time in a thousand, each smile that landed at random on me, each time her eyes purely by chance looked into mine would be proof that she still lived and still needed me, and I would treasure each and every one. Those other smiles? Those other failures to respond to stimulation? No matter: I will only remember the ones that confirm my desperately-held belief that my daughter still lives.
Are the Schindlers in
denial? Absolutely, sustained and maintained by a strong confirmation bias. I grieve for both the Schindlers and Michael Schiavo. Mr. Schiavo is stronger than I could ever be. Honey, be sure to ask your dad, not me, to carry out your advance directives.