Sayonara, Sucky Blog and 2009

I've been a little morose lately, and looking at the last bunch of posts, I think I know why. The Bears were pretty disappointing this year, but it was more than just football. Before I even get into other theories, I want to be clear that I am well aware that I'm talking about levels of comfort here; levels of relative wealth.

2009 brought us some firsts. Jennie quit her first nursing job and started a new one. We got an HD television, went on a cruise, and stayed in a cabin up north with my family for the first time since we've been married.

We stayed ahead of our bills for the first time in a few years, and we got new wood floors on the main floor of our house to boot.

At the same time, we had friends suffering from cancer, marital troubles, and deaths that were just heart-breaking. Jennie and I had some trials of our own, but we've always been a good team and we were able to get through them together.

2009 was a year where we had expected great things. With two incomes again, we wanted to do a lot more with the house, visit Jennie's brother, travel through Canada, and other stuff. We did do some traveling and we have gotten the floors nearly done, so there's that. It just hasn't felt like we were doing lots of fun stuff for some reason.

One issue is that my job went from being the dream job for me to being somewhat stressful. The ranks have been pared down, and while I feel lucky to have survived, the reality is that with less people, there's more work. Where I used to have time to read requirements and get up to speed on the next project, now I'm still working on one project when the next deadline approaches. I guess the honeymoon is over, as they say. Lucky to have a job, though, and lucky to work for a company I respect.

I'm not sure if other stuff is a result of or coincidental, but the bands have been kind of languishing (much of the blame is mine), and even though I finally built the dream computer and got the recording gear to work, I have almost nothing to show for it so far. (Not to mention two water incidents which seem to have spawned some mold.) That needs to change.

This year, I made an effort to get rid of my old "assoctw" moniker online. It's just a perception thing, I guess, but I'm not associate anything anymore. I'm also not a fledgling anymore, either, which brings me to the point of this post.

2010, a.k.a MMX, will be the first time in a while that I'll make some actual resolutions. One of them will be to shutter this blog. I have started a new one, and my next post will be there. I'll actively try to promote it, and also make it worth checking out on occasion.

MMX will also be another year where I'll work on being a better person. Thanks to Facebook, I'm back in touch with a number of old friends and neighbors. Thanks to my proclivity for bunkering, I haven't seen most of them in person. That'll have to change. We have cross-country skis, nice bikes, and a canoe. Most are dusty. That'll have to change. Aside from the renovations we already have planned, I really need to get brutal on the basement. Time to get to work.

2010 will be a year when I'll look at what's in front of me and figure out how to get started, not how to avoid the job. I'll need to get organized and stay motivated. It's not in my nature, but I'll be happier if I can stick with it and get some stuff done.

Anyhow, thanks for checking out this blog. If you are interested in checking out the new one, it'll be here: http://actioncity.blogspot.com.

Happy new year, and see you in action city!

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It Had to Happen Eventually

Here's my diatribe about the state of the Bears. (Fair warning.)

Typical GM: responsible for overall vision of the team. Hires players according to need, or in the case of the draft, gets the best talent available when it's his turn to pick. Oversees the coaching staff and overall success and progress of the team.

Jerry Angelo: reactionary at best. Keeps saying we have a plan, but things just didn't work out according to the plan. Gets credit for the Cutler trade, but Cutler initiated that and cited Chicago as the place where he wanted to play. Had Thomas Jones (solid running game) and picked up Cedric Benson (tons of potential/high draft pick) and somehow allowed a potentially devastating 1-2 punch to turn into Matt Forte (no slight on Forte). He should have held out on Benson who held out on the Bears as a rookie to teach him the lesson he eventually learned way back then. The money has to be earned.

We got Chris Williams, but one guy does not an offensive line make. Where are the backups? Where is the depth? We need nimble giants with long arms.

Somehow, amazingly, he's neutralized one of the most amazing athletes I've seen (Hester) by changing him out of the position he excelled in to running routes with little to no support. This one might also fall on Lovie.

Also, Angelo nearly lost Lance Briggs. In the interest of full disclosure, I would have been for it and it would have been the wrong decision. He offered mediocre money to low-ball Briggs after he had proven himself. He did eventually use the franchise tag to keep him, and ultimately they were able to work it out, but I wonder if that was Angelo, or a rescue job by Drew Rosenhaus.

This year, during a decline, Angelo brought in Pisa Tinoisamoa (I.R.), Kevin Jones (no better or different than Forte), and now Gaines Adams (useless so far) and agreed to bring in record-breaking loser Rod Marinelli to coach the D-line. That last one never quite made sense to me, except that Lovie and Rod are buddies. So now we have Bob Babich (horrible), Rod Marinelli (loser as head coach), and Lovie as the D-coordinator, which leaves Ron Turner all alone on an island.

Turner reports to Lovie, but Angelo has also allowed this offense to continue to suck. When your top picks are languishing (Olsen, Williams) or not playing (Iglesias), something is very wrong.

Head Coach: develops game plans for offense, defense, and special teams. Facilitates a team atmosphere, assesses and develops talent, oversees practices, makes final calls on game day.

Lovie Smith: purports to have a game plan, but I have never seen him make an adjustment when the game plan proves inadequate. Steve Smith stole a playoff game from us single-handedly. Later, Indianapolis adjusted to our defense and our defense could not correct itself and got typhooned by the end of our first Super Bowl bid in 20 years.

During the Super Bowl season, Robbie Gould had a perfect streak going, until he was set up for a kick, and because of some confusion on a ruling, Lovie called a timeout just as the kick went off, nullifying it. As a result, they still decided to kick, and Gould missed the second try, killing his streak. Lovie froze his own kicker. There have been a number of bad challenges, bad 4th and 1 decisions, and continual bad calls (Forte up the middle comes to mind) that are never corrected.

As for team atmosphere, all you need to know is that if you are friends with Lovie, you'll have a job whether you can perform at a high level or not. Look to Rod Marinelli, Bob Babich, Ron Turner, Pisa Tinoisamoa, Adam Archuleta, and the list goes on. He fired Ron Rivera, who had the defense in the top five list each year. That defense got us to the Super Bowl, and Rivera was looking like a good choice for a head coaching position. So, before Lovie got his contract extension, and to avoid any controversies down the road, he bumped Rivera in favor of his inexperienced pal Bob Babich. When that was a clear failure, he took over defensive coordination himself. Even worse results. The defense has been bottom five in the past two years.

Player development is a joke, and players know it. Every year, we see young, hungry receivers making amazing circus catches, then they disappear into obscurity when the season starts. Doesn't matter that our 1st-string receivers have trouble getting open, running routes, or catching the ball - we never see those younger guys. Johnny Knox would have faded into obscurity if not for the early injury to Aromashadu, and Aromashadu was only in because we don't have a genuine number one receiver.

There was a training philosophy that went into place when Lovie arrived, where he got athletic guys who were not as big but very fast. He brought in a trainer who helped with conditioning and diet. We've had catastrophic injuries year over year (Urlacher hasn't been healthy more years than he has been, we lost Mike Brown to injuries - he's playing a full season in KC now, etc.) which I think is connected to training at some level.

Even further, Lovie said all the right things when he got here, including making beating the Packers a top priority. Not something I would have expected, but it was great to hear it. The Packers swept us this year. After letting Rivera go, Lovie said "trust me". When does that trust finally pay off?

I'm not one of those people who needs the coach to be emotional and psychotic on the sidelines. I would, however, like more concrete answers for when I can expect to be a happy Bears fan again. I don't believe Lovie has the answers.

These two positions are pivotal for the daily attitude and ongoing development of the team. Both are in a severe downward spiral, in my opinion. I don't see any indications of improvement year over year, and there is an unprecedented wealth of quality coaches available right now. The smart thing would be to source a new, top-quality GM who can find and retain a top-quality head coach and staff. They should then work together to scrub the roster of ineffective players and fill in with top-quality players.

Regardless of how it plays out, I expect another rebuilding season in 2010. Figures, since we finally have a nice HD television and a DVR.

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Worse Than Expected

We've flip-flopped since the 2005 season. Back then, the Vikings kept drafting names and looking good in the pre-season and early games in the regular season, only to fade into obscurity on a house boat with hookers. Meanwhile, the NFL and Fox ignored the top defense in the league and a reasonable offense powered by a nearly unknown running back.

Back then, the Vikings looked good on paper but sucked by mid-season. The Bears got to the Super Bowl and took on Indy; you know the unfortunate end to that story. This year, it looks pretty obvious that the Vikings are going to win the North and probably the NFC. I don't like it, but that's the way it is. Looking at how resilient the Colts are, it would not surprise me if that was your 2010 Super Bowl matchup.

The absolute beating at the hands of the Vikings today was expected and unpleasant, but if the Vikings make it to the Super Bowl and beat the Colts, it's going to be a long, drunken winter.

I'm not through with the Bears, but if Lovie is back next year, I might not watch any games at all. Figures, too. This off season, I got a nice, flat-panel television with HD programming and a HD DVR so I could go through the games and analyze them. After the Pittsburgh game, I didn't see anything to analyze.

My prediction for the rest of the Bears season is that we'll get pounded by the Vikings one more time (even after it doesn't matter to them anymore) and Green Bay. At this point, I'd be surprised if we beat the Rams. The silver lining is usually the prospect of good draft picks on the back of the losing season, but we've already given those away to get Cutler.

Hopefully, one of the top-shelf coaches out there will be brought in and the Bears will admit the failures of this administration and just eat the remaining contracts. I'm willing to wait through another building year if we're actually building.

I just got done tearing out the floors in half of our house. It's painful and more difficult than it looks, but on Thursday, we'll have a new, hardwood floor that will look and work much better than what I just removed. Fine, I'm bragging a little, but also: allegory!

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Player Development

Look at the list of guys that have come through under Lovie Smith and only had one or two good seasons. Isn't player development on him?

Devin Hester: One of the most prolific returners in the history of the league. Now, an average receiver (who would be bad with anyone but Cutler, in my opinion). Is that on Lovie or Angelo?

Thomas Jones: There had to have been a better way to handle that situation. Take the track record and make Cedric the backup from the start. It would have been fair to Jones and might have forced Benson to show up to take the job. Isn't that standard in the NFL?

Cedric Benson: I still think he's a loon, but it shouldn't have taken being cut for him to figure out how to be an effective running back in the NFL.

Nathan Vasher: If he's not injured, I do not understand how a guy goes from being one of the best shut-down backs in the league, then one of the worst in a year.

Tommie Harris: Same thing. My hope is that he is still hurt, because otherwise I'd consider it one of the bigger flame-outs in Bears history.

Rex Grossman: Say what you will, but Grossman had as much upside as Cutler early on. It took a lot of pounding and distrust for him to become the shell-shocked fumble monkey he was. I actually put that on Angelo, because when the old offensive line (never a stellar group to begin with) suddenly got older, there was no backup plan.

Tight Ends: We have arguably the best tight end core in the NFL. Why is Olsen out there blocking?

Chris Harris: Why did we get rid of that guy? I really don't understand that move.

I'm sure I've overlooked a bunch. My point is that we've had some reasonably high-end talent in Chicago, but only once in the past 20 years did that get us anywhere. It's time to collect more talent to complement the high-end players we have now, and add high-end coaches as well. Not a budget choice, but a serious and proven contender.

I'm not addressing the salary cap here at all, and likely that plays into the overall picture. Still, though - I think the problem goes beyond money. I remember when people used to complain at how stingy the Bears were. Players complained and held out. Eventually, everyone got paid and the team did not get better. In fact, it's gotten much worse since the Super Bowl.

What's the answer? Hell, I don't know. You build around Briggs and Cutler, I guess. Start with a proven head coach and coordinators that understand these players and can design a defense and offense around them to maximize what they can do. Build the best possible offensive and defensive lines. Add two top-quality receivers, one franchise safety, and a good corner. That would set us up for a run.

Honestly, I'd take a 10-6 record with an unrequited playoff bid three years in a row over another Super Bowl appearance with a slow flame out for the three years following it. I'm tired of watching sketchy football.

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The Fat Lady is Only Warming Up

At a point last night, as either the third or fourth interception was thrown, my thoughts shifted from "crap - there goes a playoff try" to "oh, maybe we'll LOSE out and get some draft picks back."

The loss yesterday effectively takes them out of the hunt, but it actually does accomplish a few things:

Talent evaluation - there is no reason to keep players on the sideline. At this point, I'd want to see what Devin Aromashadu can do. Might as well test Caleb Hanie, any tackles or guards we may not have seen yet, etc. We might find some new talent or energy, and at worst we might develop some trade bait. Devin Hester has shown some ability as a receiver, but he used to score points as a returner. That only worked because he returned everything, so his odds to score went up. His odds to score as a receiver and occasional returner are very, very low.

Coaching changes - I have a feeling either Ron Turner or Jay Cutler has to go. Cutler is signed for quite some time, and I think he's more valuable than the coordinator. As I heard on the radio, the Bears spent a lot for a top-five QB. Are these coaches the best way to get a return on that investment? I say no, but I've been saying that for a while.

I know he got us to a Superbowl, but Lovie hasn't been a great coach all along. There is no excuse for all of the interceptions by Jay Cutler, but all of the penalties all game long eventually end up on the coaching. Players are not ready to hit the field. At the very least, they're not on the same page, mentally. That stuff is on the head coach, who is now also the defensive coordinator. I just don't think Lovie has any offensive input, and the defense isn't knocking anyone out of contention. That's a system failure and it's his system.

Shaking dead weight - I rooted for Rashied Davis a few years back. He had humble beginnings and showed flashes of greatness with good hands and the willingness to catch a ball over the middle. He sucks now. Our offensive line might have talent, but I think Kreutz is about at the end of his run. How many snaps have to be botched or picked up out of the dirt before he's called out? I'd even put Forte on the pile based on last night. If he's not injured, he's definitely not an elite running back. If everything else on the offense is working correctly, he could get away with his current state of skill, but when everything is in disarray, he needs to step up, and he stepped down (maybe out).

The tough part of this is the squashing of the expectations I had going into the season. By all accounts, we had an upgraded offensive line, a stellar QB, receivers who were unproven but ready to learn, and one of the elite tight-end groups in the league. The entire offense seems to be inept at this point.

Here's a look back at my preview for the season: http://fledglingtimes.blogspot.com/2009/05/gearing-up-for-football.html

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Faith in Lovie

I understand the need to keep things close to the vest, but I feel like I'm closer to the Bengals than the Bears these days. Even beyond the television show during training camp, they have guys talking the talk and walking the walk.

It's a little dangerous letting Ochocinco blather on, but on the other hand, he's also great at his job, interesting in interviews, and respectful of the game at the end of the day. Between the lines, you get some personality from him, and by extension, the Bengals.

Even as idiotic and misguided as Benson's speeches were, I got more of a look into the Bears operation from that than I do from the Bears themselves. Lovie gives stock, boring answers to questions. Urlacher only talks to one guy, apparently. The only person on the Bears team to talk and back it up is Lance Briggs, and you have to catch him off guard to get that quote.

What's worse, when you look at player development, you start seeing a trend. I'm sure one way to look at it is that Lovie gives a player a job and that player can feel secure in keeping the job. I can see how this would foster an environment of trust and loyalty. But, the other way of looking at it is that Johnny Knox never sees the field if Aromashadu doesn't get injured. Aromashadu doesn't see the field if Rashied Davis steps it up in training camp, and so on.

Josh Beekman played pretty well last year, but for some reason can't get in a game where the Bears are getting owned by 30+ points. Cutler finally gets replaced in the fourth quarter (game was over long before that) and Hanie gets to run a few running plays. We might be sitting on players that could fill in some of our gaps, but how would we ever know?

I feel like Lovie is a good defensive coordinator, but that's with established, healthy players. Beyond that, I don't trust him to develop talent, foster a positive locker room environment, or get us back into the playoffs.

I believe that coaches have success in waves. I believe Lovie's wave crested in 2006, and it'll be a while before it crests again. I don't know if I have the patience to wait for it. It's certainly less fun watching a .500 team, and that's really what the Bears are. At best.

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Duh Bears

I've been a Bears fan for a long time, but I'm also pragmatic. I did pick Cutler, Olsen, and Knox on my fantasy team, but I'm also pretty close to burning my brand new Bears hat.

Man, yesterday was hard to take. I am so sick of hearing "we need to get better" and "they're a really good team". I want an offense that can adjust to the really good teams and beat them one on one. We don't have any superstars on the offense outside of Jay Cutler.

Our strengths on Defense have been the Lovie Smith game schemes, plus Urlacher and Briggs. Urlacher is out, and Lovie's schemes are pretty easily picked apart. (Run or pass for two downs, then send a receiver behind the linebackers for a free conversion. You can do this all day, apparently.

I was hoping that Cutler would push the offense and maybe expose a few holes. What we've learned is that the o-line still sucks, the receivers mean well, but are not an elite group by any means, and Forte is either hurt, or worse yet, average. On top of it all, where Lovie has been dealing with lots of injuries on defense, Ron Turner has no injuries to speak of, and still can't put together a winning, aggressive offense.

If it's purely a personnel thing, then Jerry Angelo needs to come under the microscope, too. The Cutler deal was basically Jay's agent coming to Angelo (by all accounts) and offering him a deal. All Chicago had to do was agree to take a top-5, proven QB. Who are the other successful hires for Jerry Angelo? Which talent did he discover?

I don't remember thinking about how money was spent on the Bears in 1985, but I do remember a number of years where the Bears were notably stingy. Then, Angelo comes along and hands out contracts to anyone who asks. Even Urlacher, while still signed to his original contract.

The only guy who has continued to play after getting paid (to my surprise) is Lance Briggs. He's kind of on an island now, since the D-line is challenged (great job, Marinelli!), the secondary is terrible (even Peanut), and who are our safeties?

Anyhow, we play the Browns at home next week. The following week, the struggling Cardinals at home. We need to win both of those games to even stay competitive in the division.

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