Elliott Market Waves: 2009

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Change a little the sub waves of this pattern but the big picture (wedge or endindg diagonal) still the same. I don't change also the final target of this wave.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Just a quick update. Nothing new.

Congratulations Filipe!!!

Best gift of all in this Christmas!!

In this Christmas I had the best gift of all :). So now I enjoy my holidays to organize some things in my personal life and to support my wife.

The markets still boring and choppy. I don't expect mayor changes in the coming days and I will keep the ending diagonal/bearish wedge as my primary count.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Christmas is not a time nor a season,
but a state of mind.
To cherish peace and goodwill,
to be plenteous in mercy,
is to have the real spirit of Christmas.
Merry Christmas to all!!!!!

We are seeing boring days and nothing new to add about my last update. However I decide to showed an alternative count at short time. As you can see the targets are very similar.

EUR/USD UPDATE

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

Good luck

SPX daily update

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

Today i decided to extend a little bit more these bearish wedge, however the final target it's the same. As these last waves are to choppy, I will control both trend lines. Despite this, I think after the new year the bear will arrive again.

P.S. Until the new year I will be on holidays, but, don't worry, I will keep the blog alive.

EUR/USD UPDATE

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Not much to add since last update.

The trend is down, if my count is correct we still have much to go in the down side

Good Luck

Good Weekend

Saturday, December 19, 2009

Appear this year the bulls will don't have "presents for Christmas" and maybe will be the "last Christmas" to "them" for long time. Despite this, is time to celebrate and wait for the big bear!!

If these last weeks were choppy and boring, for the next I expect the same pattern action until the new highs. Good weekend for all!

SPX daily update

Friday, December 18, 2009

Since middle of November SPX is doing zig zag after zig zag and a possible bearish wedge or ending diagonal is underway.

Despite all alternative counts (we can made with these formations some diferent counts and today I decide to show 2 of them) the mayor pattern is underway and the top, for the big picture, may will be between 1030-1050 points.
Mayor conclusion: For me SPX didn't already made any top. It's close but is missing some points (and for me some pacience).

EUR/USD daily Update

Thursday, December 17, 2009

My 1º option seems to be in play. For now this is what i expect.

Good luck

Soon the top may will resume!

Last nigth in Portugal occur an earthquake and I forgot showed this chart. Very soon a bigger earthquake will happen in the markets (already began in EURUSD).

SPX daily update

Tired of these zig zag waves. This don't look wave iii of C since the 1085 so alternative count of the big picture is underway.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

SPX is close to end an impulsive wave. So if this happen wave (ii) or b already began.

SPX daily update

Nothing new to add. It's possible this correction already finished but I prefer some king of double zig zag and one test at 1101 (50 % Fibonacci retracement since 1085).

SPX dialy update

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Seems wave (i) or "a" finished yesterday. Today SPX may have some pullback and then will see if this is a true wave iii or wave "c" of "e" (see my last post with the big picture options).

SPX daily update

Monday, December 14, 2009

Laterization is the name and for now seems the bulls are winning this battle at short term. After 1 month at this "battle zone" the bulls have everthing to conquer another territory. On the other hand the bears need a good selloff and conquer the 1085 points.

At "big picture" I will keep my primary count but at same time will began to take attention at my alternative count. So with these two charts the top of this P2 may will be between the 113x's and the 116x's.

EUR/USD weekend update

Sunday, December 13, 2009

This is my primary count. In green you can see my alternative count.

As Filipe had show some are considering my truncation as a II, but for now i will put that option in 3º place since i don't know how to count the last up move in that option.

good luck

EDIT (by Filipe): At the "big picture" (monthly chart) the harmonic analysis suggest the possible formation of one or two bearish patterns.

GBPUSD Update

Friday, December 11, 2009

The waves are too choppy to count as wave iii so it's possible GBPUSD is doing a double zig zag. The bearish option is wave i of iii is underway as a leading diagonal (replace c for a; x for b and now c is underway).

P.S. My last charts in SPX still in play. You can see these at here.

EUR/USD ALTERNATIVE

Thursday, December 10, 2009

For now i don't like the action in this possible II, so i present you with my alternative count.

Good luck

EDIT: Alert of a possible "diamond" in SPX. Still not confirmed

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

My primary count says wave ii of C finished yesterday.

EDIT: Another alternative count to keep in mind.

SPX Daily Update

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Hi again.
To minimize my work I had the idea of only changing yesterdays background picture with todays one. Just check it :)

And the market dropped today. I fell the correction coming to an end as we almost hit 61,8 level. My count is saying that we could still spike down to complete 5th wave.

Best to your trading.
PH

EUR/USD UPDATE

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

just what i see now

good luck

SPX Daily Update

Hello folks, PH here.
I think the market is still correcting down from recent upside movement.
A price between 1087 and 1095 is, in my opinion, a sweet spot to start taking long positions again (somewhere between a new low and 61,8% level), with a tight stop.
Just don't fight the market and don't try to pick tops.

Best to your trading
PH

EUR/USD UPDATE

Monday, December 7, 2009

That move down was what i expect if in fact we had the truncation at 1.51417.
Now i expect some kind of abc to finish 2º wave.

Good Weekend

Saturday, December 5, 2009

During this weekend I will do thirteen years since I have a relationship with my lovely wife!!! She's the love of my life and I will take this opportunity to go out until wendnesday. During these days PH will do the respective updates. Best weekend for all!!

P.S. My last count and some alternative options are the same as the last update. You can see this count here.

Before I leave I want dedicate this poem to my precious wife :).

"Love used to be at the back of my mind.
Dead and lifeless like the sun with no shine.
Then you came along and showed me love is beautiful.
You brought me to life, so strong and spiritual.

The day that I saw you, my heart melted.
It was true love, because I felt it.
You changed my life in so many ways.
Some of them I can't even explain.

When I think of you, the world just leaves.
From my mind and from my dreams.
I see someone that is caring and full of heart.
Someone daring, someone special, someone to share my heart.

I made this poem only for you.
To think of me when you're feeling blue.
I Love You!"

GBPUSD Update

Friday, December 4, 2009

Possible gartley bullish underway.

SPX daily update (Part 1)

Some trendlines that I will follow.Some options to keep in mind:

a) Irregular abc at wave ii of C;

b) Triangle at wave ii of C;

c) Bearish wedge at wave C.

AUDUSD update

Yesterday I have a request to do a AUS/USD chart. There is it here :). Mo, it will be great see your count and your feedback. Hope you enjoy this :).

SPX daily update

As I follow my big picture this decline will be wave ii of C. Below the 1085 (cash) this count will be in danger. Until that I prefer count as I show at chart.

P.S. Another day (only afternoon) without internet connection and trading :(.

EUR/USD UPDATE

Thursday, December 3, 2009

This is what i was talking about this afternoon.
The "green" count seems to be the right one. This up move may not be finish, but a break of 1,50326 will make me belive that we are done in the up side

SPX daily update

Today was a hard day of work without internet connection :(. So I can't made any intraday update.

About the markets it's still hard to label these waves at short term but seems this new high was made with a flat wave. (3-3-5). So it's possible new highs tomorrow to finished wave i of C or C.

GBPUSD Update

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

GBPUSD until now didn't confirm the beginning of the new (down) trend and it's need a good sell off to validate the began of the wave iii. However since the wave ii (rose) the pattern seems more another zig zag,were wave "a" is similar with wave "c". So the bears must have some caution and wait a little more to see what will happen.

SPX daily update

Today was holiday in Portugal (Independence Day) and I take this time to rest with family.
About the SPX I haven't nothing new to say and I will keep a double zig zag or triangle as the possible pattern for this wave B. Alternative count is wave C already underway.

SPX daily update

Monday, November 30, 2009

Two possible counts still underway, the bullish (wave B finished) and the bearish (wave B is underway doing a double zig zag). Despite this mess the odds suggest new highs (wave C) soon. Today's action appears wave B still underway but sometimes is better wait to see what happen.

P.S. My last chart still my primary count.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

I prefer count this wave, since friday's lows, as an simple abc so it´s possible this wave B didn't finished. However this market still very hard to labbel the waves at short term.

Bohemian Bankruptcy - A tragedy by Drag Queen

Today I bring for my weekend's clip this excellent funny work that I saw at Bob Campbell blog (http://fibonacci-financial.blogspot.com/). It's another good EW's blog that you must visit.

SPX intraday update (Part 2)

Friday, November 27, 2009

This is my worst scenario. This count have several problems so I will not count as primary.

EUR/USD UPDATE

These are my two counts for this "mess".
We had a fast drop after a very small up move after my last update, and today we had a pullback that stop at 50% fibo.
Well, my primary count is in "blue", but we still are is this up channel, so for now i will keep the "green" one in sight.

SPX intraday update (Part 1)

If this count is corrected a complex abc occur and wave b (rose) already finished and the big picture still underway.

DAX intraday update (Part 1)

Seems the trend line support DAX and new highs will be made soon. Still don't see any signal of P3 beginning so this bull count and this bear count are my primary counts for the big picture.