Quote
Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
Dec14 Portfolio
In Dec, I brought in Chin Well into my portfolio on top of PJ Dev and Sunway. Both PJ Dev and Sunway were bought earlier for their corporate actions.
Thinking to average down PJ Dev-WC when the price dropped a lot few weeks ago but did not make the move in the end as I don't want to enlarge the portion of warrant in my portfolio.
Made a positive short trade on Poh Huat
For Singapore, still the same old HB Land and CES.
For January, continue to do more studies and will make purchase if their price dropped to my prefer buying price.
Happy new year :)
Labels:
Portfolio
Tuesday, December 30, 2014
Bye Bye 2014
Well, it's almost the end for the year 2014.
There were happy, exciting, sweet as well as sad, stressful and disappointment occasions happened on me throughout the year. Overall, it was still a good year for me :)
Looking back on the resolutions I posted at the beginning of the year, I'm glad I did most of them.
1) Ensure my portfolio has at least 15% annual return in realized profit at the end of 2014.
2) Spare out RM2.5k monthly to enlarge my portfolio capital at the end of 2014 by RM30k.
3) Study and invest in Singapore companies.
4) To have average monthly dividend of RM400.
6) Exercise at least twice per week.
7) Improve my cooking skills.
8) Back to my hometown at least once per month. (p/s: I currently in Sg)
9) To propose and ROM :)
There were happy, exciting, sweet as well as sad, stressful and disappointment occasions happened on me throughout the year. Overall, it was still a good year for me :)
Looking back on the resolutions I posted at the beginning of the year, I'm glad I did most of them.
1) Ensure my portfolio has at least 15% annual return in realized profit at the end of 2014.
This is the top priority of the list and I'm glad that I manage to do it :)
2) Spare out RM2.5k monthly to enlarge my portfolio capital at the end of 2014 by RM30k.
Yes this too.
3) Study and invest in Singapore companies.
I studied a couple of companies listed in SGX. In the end, I only invested in 2 companies ( CES & HB land, both also "follow wind". My bad, need to catch a bit )
4) To have average monthly dividend of RM400.
Yes achieved. But still long way to go to achieve financial freedom.
5) Read a book once per 2 months. Isn't too few? Haha
Yes. And I want to thank my partner too for accompanied me to go library during weekend.
6) Exercise at least twice per week.
Yes. 2-3 times per week unless I went for travel during certain weeks. Mostly jogging but now should have a fix weekly badminton session at Sunday morning :)
7) Improve my cooking skills.
Yeah. I think I'm better than before and I found out that cooking is not that hard when you try and cook more. I want to thank my bro for letting me to stay at his HDB too, else there is no way I can have the chance to learn cooking.
8) Back to my hometown at least once per month. (p/s: I currently in Sg)
Yes yes yes. Family is important. On par with health and wealth.
9) To propose and ROM :)
Yes. Next is the wedding dinner.
So that's. Time flies when you are happy, right?
Thanks God for everything. Good or bad, they are important in my journey.
It's time to make resolution for year 2015 :)
It's time to make resolution for year 2015 :)
Monday, December 29, 2014
George Kent: Email Exchange with IR regarding Q3FY15
Regarding the latest quarter performance of George Kent group, I dropped an email to their IR representative and glad that they replied me few days ago. Below are the details.
1) The revenue and net profit from Manufacturing and Trading segment for the latest quarter (Q3FY15) were lower than corresponding quarter (Q3FY14). What is the reason behind for this drop as the new contracts from Vietnam and Singapore should help to lift up its performance?
Whilst sales to Vietnam and Singapore helped to lift the revenue for Meters sales, lower OEM sales and the change in presentation of sales of scrap contributed to the lower revenue for Manufacturing and Trading segment.
2) At the third paragraph of the press release, it's written that
"For its cumulative 3 quarters of FYE2015, the Group reported cumulative revenue of RM235.9 million. Higher revenue of Meters was achieved by the Manufacturing and Trading Division, contributed by new contracts secured in Vietnam and Singapore"
From the data on the quarter report, manufacturing and trading segment recorded only RM71.8mils revenue for cumulative 3 quarters of FY2015 while recorded RM84.4mils revenue for cumulative 3 quarters of FY2014. How come the press release would stated that higher revenue of meters was achieved?
The press release commented on Revenue, not Profit. It is true that the cumulative Revenue of the Manufacturing & Trading segment is lower as highlighted by the shareholder above. However, the press release merely highlighted that Meters sales (one of the revenue sources) were higher, which is true. However, OEM sales, another revenue source within the Manufacturing & Trading segment were lower. In addition, sales of scrap for tolling purposes were no longer reported as Revenue but the profit thereof were set off against cost of sales. This change in presentation also contributed to the overall drop in revenue.
3) When will the construction works of the Phase II of Kuala Lipis Hospital begins?
The construction works for Phase II of the Kuala Lipis Hospital has begun in November 2014.
4) Regarding the order book for the construction segment, is that the group only left construction works from Ampang LRT Line Extension project and the newly awarded Kuala Lipis Hospital project?
The current order book for the construction segment consist of the Ampang LRT line, Kuala Lipis Phase II and Mengkuang dam project however; GKENT is actively bidding for other projects to replenish their order book.
5) With the current drop in crude oil price, what is the effect on the group's performance on Meters sales and Construction work tender rate?
We do not foresee any impact on the Group’s performance and tender rate.
6) During the latest AGM, Mr Tan also mentioned that the group is looking to diversify into oil & gas industry. Is that any update on this?
This is currently still in the exploratory stage as the Group is still reviewing their options.
So, the construction segment still highly depends on its Ampang LRT line extension as the contribution from the Kuala Lipis Hospital project is quite small. For its manufacturing & trading segment, I am quite interested to see how they can double their sales as mentioned by the management or only paper talk.
Regarding the venture into oil & gas as mentioned by Mr Tan during the last AGM that caused a spike, I think it's cooler than water now.
1) The revenue and net profit from Manufacturing and Trading segment for the latest quarter (Q3FY15) were lower than corresponding quarter (Q3FY14). What is the reason behind for this drop as the new contracts from Vietnam and Singapore should help to lift up its performance?
Whilst sales to Vietnam and Singapore helped to lift the revenue for Meters sales, lower OEM sales and the change in presentation of sales of scrap contributed to the lower revenue for Manufacturing and Trading segment.
2) At the third paragraph of the press release, it's written that
"For its cumulative 3 quarters of FYE2015, the Group reported cumulative revenue of RM235.9 million. Higher revenue of Meters was achieved by the Manufacturing and Trading Division, contributed by new contracts secured in Vietnam and Singapore"
From the data on the quarter report, manufacturing and trading segment recorded only RM71.8mils revenue for cumulative 3 quarters of FY2015 while recorded RM84.4mils revenue for cumulative 3 quarters of FY2014. How come the press release would stated that higher revenue of meters was achieved?
The press release commented on Revenue, not Profit. It is true that the cumulative Revenue of the Manufacturing & Trading segment is lower as highlighted by the shareholder above. However, the press release merely highlighted that Meters sales (one of the revenue sources) were higher, which is true. However, OEM sales, another revenue source within the Manufacturing & Trading segment were lower. In addition, sales of scrap for tolling purposes were no longer reported as Revenue but the profit thereof were set off against cost of sales. This change in presentation also contributed to the overall drop in revenue.
3) When will the construction works of the Phase II of Kuala Lipis Hospital begins?
The construction works for Phase II of the Kuala Lipis Hospital has begun in November 2014.
4) Regarding the order book for the construction segment, is that the group only left construction works from Ampang LRT Line Extension project and the newly awarded Kuala Lipis Hospital project?
The current order book for the construction segment consist of the Ampang LRT line, Kuala Lipis Phase II and Mengkuang dam project however; GKENT is actively bidding for other projects to replenish their order book.
5) With the current drop in crude oil price, what is the effect on the group's performance on Meters sales and Construction work tender rate?
We do not foresee any impact on the Group’s performance and tender rate.
6) During the latest AGM, Mr Tan also mentioned that the group is looking to diversify into oil & gas industry. Is that any update on this?
This is currently still in the exploratory stage as the Group is still reviewing their options.
So, the construction segment still highly depends on its Ampang LRT line extension as the contribution from the Kuala Lipis Hospital project is quite small. For its manufacturing & trading segment, I am quite interested to see how they can double their sales as mentioned by the management or only paper talk.
Regarding the venture into oil & gas as mentioned by Mr Tan during the last AGM that caused a spike, I think it's cooler than water now.
Friday, December 26, 2014
Maybank TreatsPoints Reward
I have been using Maybank 2 Cards for a while.
It gives 5x points for Amex card as well as 5% cash back during weekend and 1x point for the Master card. Although I'm working in Singapore currently, but I still have some bills (Hp bills, insurance,donation) being auto credited monthly.
And I do some spending occasionally using my Amex card for maximum benefit (5% cash back and 5x points) on airline (Firefly, not Airasia), franchised restaurant (Sushi King, etc) and groceries (Parkson, Aeon, Watson) when I in Malaysia.
This is the second time I converted the reward points. I redeemed RM400 AEON vouchers this time. I like AEON vouchers as they do not have expiry date and I visit AEON 18 quite frequently when I back Ipoh. For Parkson vouchers, it required you to redeem at the outlet on the spot which is little bit troublesome to me.
So, perhaps a good motivation for me to shop for cny clothes :)
There are many credit cards out there, find one that suit you the most. It does help a lot with proper control and discipline. Just make sure you pay the bill on time. If not, hmmm the interest may kill you :)
Labels:
Others
Tuesday, December 23, 2014
Luxchem Corp: Earning Power Valuation
I tried to apply Earning Power Valuation (EPV) on Luxchem Corporation and the result is little bit interesting.
EPV uses a very basic equation and the calculation only involves historical data. The equation only uses 2 assumptions which is the weight average cost of capital and assume the earnings are sustainable. It does not need any prediction on the group's future earnings and cash flow. So, it's considered as a bit defensive valuation.
For more information regarding EPV, pls read the link below as explained by Jae Jun
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/stock-analysis/earnings-power-value-epv-valuation-microsoft/
First, we start with the calculation of Weight Average Cost of Capital (WACC) that would be used in the Earning Power Valuation computation.
Weight Average Cost of Capital
I will use a base of Cost of Equity of 10.0% which consist of risk free rate (MSG) plus risk premium and multiple it with several risk consideration before arrive at required return for equity holder.
Basic Cost of Equity, RE = 10.0%
Business Risk = 1.15
Financial Risk = 1.0
Earnings Predictability = 1.10
Adjust Return of Equity Holder, Re = 10.0% x 1.15 x 1.0 x 1.10 = 12.65%
For its business risk, since Luxchem involved in chemical trading and manufacturing which affected by commodities price and demand of their products as well as facing competition from other trading companies that may result in thinner margin. So, I rate it at a premium 1.15.
For its financial risk, the group is at net cash position with good ROE and ROIC throughout the years albeit declining profit margin. I rate it with a base of 1.0 as it's stable and has good fundamental.
For its earnings predictability, Luxchem is a local market leader in supplying UPR and also supplies nitrile for certain glove manufacturers. Their sales are stable and majority of its revenue are done locally. Thus, I rate it with a little premium at 1.10
There are many formulas to calculate Required Return of Equity Holder, Re on web. I tend to use this one as it's easier for me.
So here comes with the WACC computation
Current market capital,E = 0.83 x 260,000
= RM215,800,000
Total Debt, D = RM73,243
Tax Rate = 25.9%
Bank Interest, Rd = Interest Paid / Total borrowings
= 2,376 / 73,243 = 3.24%
Total value of firm, V = E + D = RM289,043,000
WACC = (E/V)*Re + (D/V)*Rd(1-Tax rate)
= (215,800,000 / 289,043,000)*0.1265 + (73,243 / 289,043,000)*(0.0324)(1-0.259)
= 10.05%
Earning Power Valuation
I used historical record from year 2007 to 2013 for the computation since the group only listed in 2008.
So, the EPV is around RM1.06 compared to yesterday closing price of RM0.83.
However, given the operating profit margin of Luxchem has been in declining trend throughout the years, I applied its latest operating profit margin of 5.44% (FY2013) in the calculation to be more conservative.
The new EPV is RM0.80 which is lower than yesterday closing price of RM0.83
Although EPV method is considered as more defensive valuation due to less assumption used, but it's better to apply a certain degree of margin of safety to the estimated value since valuation after all is just a number.
10%? 20%? 30%? It's depends on the individual risk appetite.
In addition, investors should not depend on one valuation to decide the buy or sell call.
At least for me, I quite emphasize on the growth prospect for the the companies I Invest in.
Do you think Luxchem has high growth ahead? I rest my case at least for now.
EPV uses a very basic equation and the calculation only involves historical data. The equation only uses 2 assumptions which is the weight average cost of capital and assume the earnings are sustainable. It does not need any prediction on the group's future earnings and cash flow. So, it's considered as a bit defensive valuation.
For more information regarding EPV, pls read the link below as explained by Jae Jun
http://www.oldschoolvalue.com/blog/stock-analysis/earnings-power-value-epv-valuation-microsoft/
First, we start with the calculation of Weight Average Cost of Capital (WACC) that would be used in the Earning Power Valuation computation.
Weight Average Cost of Capital
I will use a base of Cost of Equity of 10.0% which consist of risk free rate (MSG) plus risk premium and multiple it with several risk consideration before arrive at required return for equity holder.
Basic Cost of Equity, RE = 10.0%
Business Risk = 1.15
Financial Risk = 1.0
Earnings Predictability = 1.10
Adjust Return of Equity Holder, Re = 10.0% x 1.15 x 1.0 x 1.10 = 12.65%
For its business risk, since Luxchem involved in chemical trading and manufacturing which affected by commodities price and demand of their products as well as facing competition from other trading companies that may result in thinner margin. So, I rate it at a premium 1.15.
For its financial risk, the group is at net cash position with good ROE and ROIC throughout the years albeit declining profit margin. I rate it with a base of 1.0 as it's stable and has good fundamental.
For its earnings predictability, Luxchem is a local market leader in supplying UPR and also supplies nitrile for certain glove manufacturers. Their sales are stable and majority of its revenue are done locally. Thus, I rate it with a little premium at 1.10
There are many formulas to calculate Required Return of Equity Holder, Re on web. I tend to use this one as it's easier for me.
So here comes with the WACC computation
Current market capital,E = 0.83 x 260,000
= RM215,800,000
Total Debt, D = RM73,243
Tax Rate = 25.9%
Bank Interest, Rd = Interest Paid / Total borrowings
= 2,376 / 73,243 = 3.24%
Total value of firm, V = E + D = RM289,043,000
WACC = (E/V)*Re + (D/V)*Rd(1-Tax rate)
= (215,800,000 / 289,043,000)*0.1265 + (73,243 / 289,043,000)*(0.0324)(1-0.259)
= 10.05%
Earning Power Valuation
I used historical record from year 2007 to 2013 for the computation since the group only listed in 2008.
Latest Year Revenue | ('000) | 524,937 | Revenue for FY2013 | |
Average EBIT margin | % | 7.10 | Past 7 years average EBIT margin | |
Operating profit, EBIT | ('000) | 37,289 | ||
Average Tax Rate | % | 25.4% | Past 7 years average tax rate | |
Average EBIT After Tax | ('000) | 27,821 | ||
Average Net Capital Expenses | ('000) | -463 | Past 7 years capex deduct depreciation | |
Normalized EBIT | ('000) | 27,359 | Add together | |
Cost of Capital, WACC | % | 10.05% | ||
Capitalized Earnings | ('000) | 272,225 | Normalized EBIT / WACC | |
Add Excess Cash | ('000) | 348,466 | From Q3FY2014 | |
Minus Total Borrowings | ('000) | 271,324 | From Q3FY2014 | |
Minority Interests Percentage | % | -1.3% | Minority percentage for FY2013 net profit | |
EPV to common shareholders | ('000) | 274,878 | ||
EPV/Share | RM | 1.06 |
So, the EPV is around RM1.06 compared to yesterday closing price of RM0.83.
However, given the operating profit margin of Luxchem has been in declining trend throughout the years, I applied its latest operating profit margin of 5.44% (FY2013) in the calculation to be more conservative.
The new EPV is RM0.80 which is lower than yesterday closing price of RM0.83
Although EPV method is considered as more defensive valuation due to less assumption used, but it's better to apply a certain degree of margin of safety to the estimated value since valuation after all is just a number.
10%? 20%? 30%? It's depends on the individual risk appetite.
In addition, investors should not depend on one valuation to decide the buy or sell call.
At least for me, I quite emphasize on the growth prospect for the the companies I Invest in.
Do you think Luxchem has high growth ahead? I rest my case at least for now.
Labels:
Luxchem
Monday, December 22, 2014
Pintaras Jaya: Mana Contracts?
Recent quarter report of Pintaras Jaya mentioned that there is some projects just started. It caused the profit margin dropped due to the revenue recognition method of percentage of completion. I would expect the profit margin for the next 1 or 2 quarters will pick up back.
Table below shows the contracts awarded to Pintaras Jaya group for the past one year as announced by the group in Bursa website.
Table below shows the contracts awarded to Pintaras Jaya group for the past one year as announced by the group in Bursa website.
The group last announced a contract won was back to June this year. That was roughly half year ago.
Financial year of Pintaras is at the end of June. When we step into 2015, the group only left 3 to 4 job orders on hands. Without doubt, FY2015 will be another good year for the group as the total value of the contracts works in FY2015 easily surpassed its result in FY2014.
Management mentioned that they are quite comfortable with the amount of work they are having now and wish to focus on these jobs first before replenish their order book once more work has been done. Biggest challenge is still their human resource.
Tender book is around RM1-2b. But that is only tender. With the recent drop in crude oil price which directly affected government's revenue and budget, the planed expenditures and construction works may be delayed or worst case being cancelled. In addition, the property development segment is expected to be slowed down gradually.
It's undeniable the fundamental of Pintaras Jaya is good, very good indeed. But being in a construction industry, the group must go through some cyclical periods and I'm confident that the group will have the ability to survive given the solid balance sheet.
But investors invest for future. Without much contracts on hands after the new year, the earning visibility is not there.
I wish and hopefully see some contracts announcement soon.
So, mana contracts, Pintaras?
It's undeniable the fundamental of Pintaras Jaya is good, very good indeed. But being in a construction industry, the group must go through some cyclical periods and I'm confident that the group will have the ability to survive given the solid balance sheet.
But investors invest for future. Without much contracts on hands after the new year, the earning visibility is not there.
I wish and hopefully see some contracts announcement soon.
So, mana contracts, Pintaras?
Friday, December 19, 2014
Tong Herr Resources: Another Fastener Player
After studied Chin Well Berhad, of course the next will be
the player in the same industry, Tong Heer Resources Berhad.
Tong Heer Resources Berhad, or namely TONG group is an
international stainless steel fastener including nuts, bolts and screws with
several manufacturing bases in Malaysia, Thailand and China. Tong Heer was
established by the Tong group in 1989 (Malaysia's factory) and 2005 (Thailand's
factory) for manufacturing stainless steel fasteners. Tong Heer's products are
widely used in many different industries.
Same as Chin Well group, performance of Tong Heer Resources
group had been in roller coaster ride too with fluctuating profit margins and
still not yet recover the profit recorded before 2008 financial crisis.
The operating and net profit margin are lower than 10% for
the past three years.
Drops in performance of the group in FY2012 was due to low
demand and EU investigation of anti-circumvention during the year.
In 2009, the group tried to diversify into other business segment
by subscribed 37.04% equity interest in Fuco International Ltd at USD20mils,
which involved in steel billet manufacturing in Vietnam. However up until
FY2013, the group's associates, Fuco Steel in Vietnam is still in red.
The group is not in net cash position with net gearing ratio
of 0.07 which is manageable. Majority of the borrowings are denominated in USD dollar with
effective rate range from 0.73% to 3.8%.
In Aug 2010, the group also diversified into other metal
business by acquired 51% equity interest in Metech Aluminium Industries
(changed name to Tong Heer Aluminium) for RM35mils, which involved in aluminum
extrusion in Penang and Tong Heer (Thai) also acquired a land situated in
Pinthong Industrial Estate for business expansion.
All these corporate actions caused the group took up some
loan to finance the expenditures.
The group’s cash flow
was quite bumpy but the management able to control its capex spent nicely.
Other than FY2006 & 2010, the group managed to record positive free cash
flow throughout the years.
Bear in mind that I didn’t not include acquisition on new subsidiary or associates into capex calculation.
Bear in mind that I didn’t not include acquisition on new subsidiary or associates into capex calculation.
It’s same as Chin Well group as the group maintained a high
inventory turnover that caused high cash conversion cycle but its trade
receivables turnover is better in comparison.
ROE and ROIC are so bad that recorded well below 10% which in theory, it's destroying shareholder's value. Low
profit margin, low net profit and high capital required contributed to this
scenario unless the performance improved and get back to the old days before
FY2008.
The group only started to report segment breakdown after it
diversified into aluminium extrusion business. Fasteners segment is still the
core business of the group, contributed more to the group’s revenue and profit.
Both segments also record PBIT profit margin below 10% but Aluminium extrusion
segment showed slightly better. Margin for fasteners is quite bumpy too.
Unlike Chin Well group who’s close to 60% of its sales come
from European countries, Tong Heer Resources’s sales are quite equally
diversified into different countries which is a good point.
When you read through
the latest annual report, you will come across the Non-controlling interest part which
shows the basic data of its 51% owned Tong Heer Aluminium and 50.01% owned Tong
Heer (Thailand).
Increase revenue but
with lower net profit recorded for both subsidiaries compared to previous year.
This is not encouraging especially the Thailand plant with lower profit margin
and negative operating cash flow.
Perhaps due to politic instability in Thailand last year? Higher labour cost?
Perhaps due to politic instability in Thailand last year? Higher labour cost?
Another thing
investors who wish to invest in Tong Heer group need to take a look at its
currency risk profile. The group is quite exposed to USD currency based on the currency risk explanation as stated in the latest annual report.
The group is quite sensitive to USD currency. The weakening of both functional currency of Ringgit Malaysia and Thai Baht against USD will have immerse impact on the group's performance.
And you should know how strong the USD currently is recently. I not sure the amount stated is net profit or operating profit or just revenue. If worst case the amount stated is on its net profit, the impact of appreciation of USD against RM & Thai Baht on the group's net profit is quite huge (RM3-4 mils) given that the group only chalked up around RM17 mils net profit in FY2013.
Do take note of this
Do take note of this
Similar to Chin Well group, the fasteners industry enjoys a tremendous turnaround this year. Management mentioned that improved margin ( higher selling price as well as lower cost of goods) and higher sales from exports helped the group to record awesome results compared to last year.
And dividend too~ 6 cents interim compared to last full year of 5 cents. Any more to come?
Seems like it's going to be a good year for the fastener industry.
Mr Tsai Yi Ting (Aged 24), Managing Director is the son of Mr Tsai Ming Ti who is the Chairman of the group currently.
He was appointed as Assistant to Managing Director in Jan 2010 at the aged of 20 ( Hmmm, I just entered my first year of uni life at that age ).
He was appointed as Managing Director on Aug 2012. at the aged of 22. ( Well, I still not yet graduated and still playing dota at that age ).
Well, since the founder is still working in the company and has at least 10 years more to guide the Junior Tsai. It should be no problem for handover.
Labels:
Tong Herr
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
George Kent: Another Stable Quarter
With the recent red sea market, I guess there is not much people having the mood to read quarter report release. Well, my thinking is that instead of looking at the stock price frequently, why not take a book/course to upgrade yourself or look through the companies to find any potential gems since the price now is getting more attractive unless you want to buy/sell your counters.
Okay, back to the post. George Kent always in my watch list and gone through ups & downs in terms of stock price throughout the past few months. The group just released its Q3FY2015 report yesterday.
Higher revenue but flat net profit if compare to corresponding quarter last year. This was due to higher contribution from its construction segment that fetched far lower profit margin.
EPS was diluted due to the bonus issue of 1-3 that just completed months ago.
For the cumulative 9 months period, the group net profit increased from RM17.7 mils to RM19.8 mils, which showed around 11.8% improvement.
In terms of dividend, the group so far announced 3.2 cents dividend compared to 3.0 cents last year (Ex-bonus issue). Thus, in terms of dividend in dollar, it was almost 42% increases!
What surprised me is that its manufacturing segment had showed a drop in performance. I expect this segment will keep on improving since it mentioned that they had secures new contracts from Vietnam and Singapore for their meter products.
The management also failed to explain the reason behind this performance drop in quarter report and press release. I dropped an email to their IR and hopefully they will reply me soon.
For its construction segment, there is steady contribution from its Ampang LRT line extension project. As far as I know, the group's current construction order book is only left the Ampang LRT line extension job and the newly awarded Kuala Lipis Hospital projects but the group only recognised 1/3 of the Ampang LRT line RM1.08 bil project. So, it's still okay for me at this moment.
For its balance sheet, nothing much special to mention other than the increases in trade receivables and trade payables. Will monitor on next quarters.
So, another stable quarter for me. But with the recent drop in crude oil price, it's directly affected our government's budget and expenditures and so does the construction job orders.
Hopefully a better meter manufacturing performance and a good dividend payout ( Currently DY >5% )
Monday, December 15, 2014
Chin Well: Email exchange with IR
I dropped an email to Chin Well Berhad's IR. Below questions are some of my enquiries to them and their answer.
1) Based on the FY2014
annual report, Mr Lim mentioned in his chairman statement that the group
secured new contract from the largest DIY fastener supplier in German and
France. Are the contracts long term base or by order base? Approximately how
much they will contribute to the group's result in FY2015 compared to FY2014?
A: Such contracts are
typically received quarterly. DIY segment made up 11% of group revenue in
FY2014 and we hope to increase the contribution in FY2015.
(p/s: I hope also )
(p/s: I hope also )
2) Mr Lim also mentioned
that the group invested a substantial amount in new machine and is expected to
be commissioned at the end of 2014. May I know what is the progress now? The
new machines are expected to improve production output or improve efficiency?
A: The machinery has been
installed, and are expected to enhance efficiency.
3) EU had imposed a five
year anti-dumping duty on imports of iron and steel fasteners originating in
PRC in 2009 and is set to expire in Oct 2014. Is that any update on the
extension of the duty?
A: The industry is awaiting EU’s decision. Meantime, the
existing anti-dumping duty applies.
4) Is the raw material of
Chin Well Holding’s products mainly from carbon steel? What forms are they?
A: Fasteners are
made of higher grade carbon steel wire rod, which are made to reach
the mechanical properties required by different standards; while
Chin Herr’s raw material is from construction grade wire rod for basic foundation use.
5) The group’s trade
receivables turnover is quite high and there is high percentage of trade
receivables past due more than 60 days. How does the group tackle this issue
and manage its credit risk?
A: It is normal for
local market or the South East Asia market to have payment term of 90
days or more. Our marketing department has weekly meetings to keep track of
customer's payment and control the shipment to make sure every customer is
within the credit limit.
(p/s: To me, the credit term is little bit long, perhaps it's industry norm? )
(p/s: To me, the credit term is little bit long, perhaps it's industry norm? )
6) It’s noted that the
group’s borrowings are all denominated in USD currency and the current trend is
that the USD will strengthen against MYR. Does the group contemplating to
convert the loan into MYR currency or others?
A: The export sales which
takes up more than 70% of the group revenue are either in USD or EUR, therefore
the purchase of raw material in USD is a natural hedge. Furthermore the
interest rate for borrowing USD is less than 1% while the interest rate for
borrowing MYR is more than 4%.
We don't see it will do
us any good by converting the loan from USD to MYR with a loss in currency
change, then pay a higher interest rate with MYR borrowing, then take
up another currency change loss by turn MYR in to USD to pay back to the
suppliers.
(p/s: I should find this in the annual report. It's stated there :) )
(p/s: I should find this in the annual report. It's stated there :) )
Labels:
Chin Well
Wednesday, December 10, 2014
Chin Well: Better times ahead
Chin Well
Holding Berhad is one of the world’s largest manufacturers and suppliers of
high-quality carbon steel fasteners which consists of screw, nuts and bolts. Through
production facilities in Malaysia and Vietnam, Chin Well manufactures and
supplies fasteners that are primarily utilized in highway guard rails, power
transmission towers, furniture and other applications.
The group
has another segment, namely Wire division, which primarily manufacture variety
of precision wire products.
The performance of the group had been like in roller coast ride
throughout the past few years. The net profit margin is thin and up down
following the trend of gross margin. Low net profit in year 2009 was due to
high inventory was written off that year.
In 2009, the EU had imposed
a five-year anti dumping duty up to 85% on imports of iron or steel fasteners
originating in PRC, in an attempt to prevent further price distortions and
restore fair competition.
Unfortunately in late 2010, EU investigated
allegations that PRC-made fasteners were being transhipped to Eu countries via
Malaysia.
In late July 2011, EU had
announced that the group was one of the companies exempted from 85%
anti-dumping duty that able to export carbon steel fasteners from Malaysia to
EU. And the duty is still applies currently, waiting for extension. This duty
helps the group to improve its sales a lot.
In terms of
balance sheet, it may not so look good at first glance as the total borrowings far
exceed its cash balance on hands during the early years. But the trend is
improving recently to achieve net cash position. Net gearing ratio is at 0.06
at the latest financial year. It’s noted that all loans are denominated in USD
dollar. So, the strengthening of USD may not doing them a favour, but the loan interest
rate is quite low, less than 2% based on AR2014.
Net cash
flow from operating activities may not be that smooth throughout the years due
to fluctuating working capitals needed. However, the group managed to chalk up
a good positive free cash flow in the last 4 years which explained why the group
managed to pare down its borrowings while at the same time improving its cash
position.
Let’s take a
look on its divisions. The performance of its Wire Products division is getting
bad. Low margin and deteriorate performance. It just shows that how competitive
it’s in the steel wire industry. Low entry barrier and involved in price war
with its competitors. The group is still highly depends on its Fasteners
division. Whether the group eat porridge, eat rice or eat wind also depends on
it. The good point is the net profit growth rate is higher
than revenue growth rate albeit the margin is fluctuating.
In terms of
market segment, ever since the anti-dumping duty being implemented by EU, export
sales to European countries kept increasing. At the last financial year,
European sales contributed around 58% of overall revenue.
Some of the
additional key points are below;
- Majority of the Other Income comes from realized gain/loss on foreign exchange.
- At least 40% dividend payout policy.
- DIY customers considered as a niche market and able to fetch higher profit margin.
- Administrative expenses kept reducing each financial year.
- Fasteners are made of higher grade carbon steel wire rod, while Chin Herr’s raw material is from construction grade wire rod for basic foundation use.
- Based on AR2014, the group managed to secured contracts from the largest DIY fastener suppliers in Germany and France on top of US and UK in FY2014.
- The group invest in new high technology production lines to improve production efficiency, target to be commissioned in Malaysia and Vietnam plant by end 2014.
- In FY2013, the group form a JV with DKSH Holdings to form Swisstec Sourcing to source for DIY customers in both Asia and Europe. However on July 2014, the group disposed its 50% stake in Swisstec as Swisstec is loss making and to eliminate further future sharing of losses of Swisstec. Impaired around 2.2mils in FY2014.
So in
conclusion, Chin Well is just a mediocre company, at least didn’t not incur any
losses. When checking its quarter-to-quarter trend, it’s nice to see that the
performance of the group is in upward trend. So, can I say it’s having a
turnaround? Special thanks to its Vietnam operation and better profit margin
from its DIY product group as well as better sales to Europe.
What prompt
me to look into Chin Well is because of their recent corporate announcement. In
Nov 2014, the group announced to acquire the remaining 40% stake in Chin Well
Fasteners (Vietnam) not owned by the group for RM47mils. The acquisition will
be fund via combination of issuance of 27mils new shares at RM1.45 to
shareholders of Asia Angel and the balance via cash amounting to RM8.3mils.
Chin Well
Vietnam recorded net profit of RM21.4mils in FY2014. If Chin Well group own the
remaining 40%, its net profit will be increased by RM8.56mils. That will give
it additional EPS of 2.85 cents based on enlarge no. of shares of around
300mils. Full year EPS for FY14 will become around 14.78cents ((35.8mils + 8.56mils)/300mils).
Of course, the current share price will be adjusted as well, depends on the timing of completion date.
I view the
acquisition positive as the labour cost in Vietnam is cheaper and the operation
plant there focus more on DIY products which fetch high profit margin. The
acquisition PE is around 5.5 (RM47mils / RM8.56mils) which is cheap and reasonable for me.
When look
into the payment terms, it’s even more favourable as around 45% of the
acquisition cost will only be paid after 2 years the signing of SPA. It’s like
borrow RM20mils without any interest for 2 years :)
So, the
better performance recently, higher contribution from the DIY segment and the full equity stake of its Vietnam plant soon, perhaps it’s worth for you to take a
look?
Oh ya nearly
forgot, below lady, Ms Tsai Chia Ling is one of the executive director of the
group. She is the daughter of the founder + managing director, Mr Tsai Yung
Chuan. She is also a non-independent non-executive director of Tambun Indah
Land Berhad. Her age is 35. Marital status: No idea.
Nothing, really nothing. Just want to mention only.
Nothing, really nothing. Just want to mention only.
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Chin Well
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