03/31/2010 Market Recap: A Bigger Symmetrical Triangle

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH *1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. *0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: CPCE MA(5) too low. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/22 low Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high Non-Stop     Newly added setup, will give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP *2 of 3 BUY 6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA UP 1 of 1 BUY Symmetrical Triangle breakout. Expect more on the upside. EMERGING ? 2 of 2 BUY   CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN *1 of 2 SELL DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. *Hollow red bar, may rebound. *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar usually mean UUP rebound the next day. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL *Black bar, could pullback. GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. *Black bar, could pullback. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL *Black bar, could pullback. ENERGY ? 2 of 3 SELL FINANCIALS UP 2 of 3 BUY REITS UP *2 of 2 SELL False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 2 of 3 BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: APRIL THE 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

In today’s After Bell Quick Summary, I mentioned a double bullish seasonality effects for tomorrow (The 1st trading day of a month and the pre-holiday effect), below are some statistics.

According to the Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. The first trading day in April, Dow up 12 of last 15, 2008 +3.2%, 2009 +2.0%.
2. NASDAQ up 13 of 15 day before Good Friday, 9 straight since 2001.
3. Day after Easter, S&P down 16 of 20 from 1984 to 2003, but improving recently, up 5 of last 6.

The Performance Surrounding Good Friday chart below is from sentimentrader.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: TODAY OR TOMORROW COULD BE A CYCLE TOP, PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL AROUND 04/12

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), there’re 2 cycle due today and tomorrow, both look like a cycle top. From my observations, when multiple cycles are due together, they’re usually very effective. Plus as mentioned in the yesterday’s report, in chart 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), BPSPX is way too overbought which means most likely a red week the next week, which also fits well with the important turning points around 04/12 to 04/15 as mentioned in 03/26 Market Recap. So the conclusion is: Today or tomorrow could be the cycle top, pullback next week until around 04/12.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: A SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE MEANS ONE MORE PUSH UP?

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), a bigger Symmetrical Triangle is formed today which according to the Elliott Wave Theory (plus as mentioned above a very bullish seasonality tomorrow), there could be one more push up tomorrow. I’m not very sure though, because oil and gold formed a black bar and dollar formed a hollow red bar (see table above) today, especially the black bar on GLD daily chart which according to the chart 6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch, most likely means that dollar will rebound tomorrow. So how bullish could be tomorrow, I’m a little skeptical,

 

6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch, a new high tomorrow (since seasonality is very very bullish) will likely trigger the stop loss of the current NYMO Sell short position. However, because the NYMO below is now deep in the negative territory so if any day the next week SPY Open > Close, the NYMO Sell setup will likely be triggered again, therefore, trading wise, decide by yourself, either make the current stop loss a little bit larger, or follow the rule, let the stop loss work and re-enter the position if NYMO Sell setup is triggered again the next week.

 

0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, just take a look, CPCE closed extremely low again today which triggered the CPCE MA(5) top signal. As usual, I put this into the table above. If you still don’t know how to use the table above, please take a look at  how to use the table above (LOL).

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

03/31/2010 After Bell Quick Summary

One trick today, when CPC <= 0.81, 34 out of 45 times (76%) a green close the next day. Plus seasonality wise tomorrow should be very bullish: the Good Friday pre-holiday effect plus the first trading day of the month – a double bullish seasonality effect. How bullish is the 1st trading day of the April? Just check the 04/01/2008 and 04/01/2009. My guess is at least for QQQQ, today’s high at $48.45 will be tested tomorrow (well, to be exact, $48.44 is a sure thing as big guys have already arranged the transactions at that price, let’s see).

PS. Indeed, sell the last 3rd trading day of each month is profitable. Window Dressing? What Window Dressing?

03/30/2010 Market Recap: Symmetrical Triangle?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 16 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/22 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high Non-Stop     Newly added setup as requested, suitable for investors, no stop loss, simply long or short. Better use RSP (equal weighted SPX ETF) for an average annual return around 15.4% since 2004. Will start to give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP 3 of 3 BUY 6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA UP 1 of 1 BUY Symmetrical Triangle breakout. Expect more on the upside. EMERGING ? *2 of 2 BUY   CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead. DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Top, target $23.74. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL ENERGY ? 2 of 3 SELL FINANCIALS UP 2 of 3 BUY REITS UP 1 of 2 BUY False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 1 of 3 BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A DOJI THIS WEEK, MAY PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL 04/12

See 03/26 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: A SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE MEANS ONE MORE PUSH UP?

Nothing to say again. 1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min), could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming therefore according to Elliott Wave Theory, tomorrow we could see one more push up. The VIX sharp sell off before the close also supports the theory. However whether SPY will eventually close in green is hard to say because the breadth below (black histogram bars) is becoming weaker and weaker,unless there’s some really good news tomorrow otherwise the breadth would become even weaker so chances for a red day tomorrow is a little bit higher.

 

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), take a look at the weekly chart again, see red vertical lines, BPSPX way too overbought means at least there’ll be a red weekly bar ahead. However, see green cycle, there’s one case in the past the SPX rose one more week before actually pulling back and this is why I think we might have a Doji or small bar this week (i.e. one more green week) and the next week will be red.

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

03/30/2010 After Bell Quick Summary

Still no tricks. The same as yesterday that VIX dropped sharply before the close while SPX didn’t rise much (in fact it’s dropping before the close too), it usually means a gap up open tomorrow. Well, I know we’ve seen gap up open for 4 days in a row. However, recently, the longest consecutive gap up open days was from 12/18/2009 to 12/28/2009, total 6 days.

And yes, I’ve noticed that ISEE Equities Only Index had huge different option with the ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index (meaning people are divided, one group bought lots of equity calls while the other group bought lots of index puts). This was an obsolete trick, since some people still like to know. Well, I didn’t find any edges for this kind of huge differences. The chart below shows all the cases since 03/09/2009 when ISEE Equities Only Index > 160 and ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index < 50. I don’t think it mean anything meaningful although if you count the number of “Green Next Day”, it’s 18 out of 29 times.

03/29/2010 Market Recap: Sell Each Month’s Last 2 Trading Days?

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *16 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/16 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high Non-Stop     *Newly added setup as requested, suitable for investors, no stop loss, simply long or short. Better use RSP (equal weighted SPX ETF) for an average annual return around 15.4% since 2004. Will start to give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP 3 of 3 BUY 6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA *UP 1 of 1 BUY *4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Symmetrical Triangle, breakout on the upside! EMERGING ? 2 of 2 SELL *Breakout Roof formation on the upside, may change the intermediate-term status if further up. CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead. DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Top, target $23.74. *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar most likely means UUP rebound tomorrow. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL *Breakout Roof formation on the upside, may change the intermediate-term status if further up. ENERGY ? 3 of 3 SELL FINANCIALS UP 2 of 3 BUY *3 black bars, expect a pullback. 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Fib confluences area is at $16.76 - $16.97, could be the intermediate-term target. REITS UP 2 of 2 BUY False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 1 of 3 BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A DOJI THIS WEEK, MAY PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL 04/12

See 03/26 Market Recap for more details.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: SELL SHORT AT TODAY’S CLOSE WERE ALL WINNING TRADES IN THE LAST 7 MONTHS

Nothing to say today, maintain the forecast for pullback to 04/01 then rebound on 04/01, the weekly bar could be a small body bar or Doji, the real pullback could be the next week.

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, someone complains about seasonality no longer works anymore, well, maybe I didn’t make it clear in the weekend report, green day today is actually normal (see green arrows), the setup actually means to sell short at today’s close, for the past 7 months, they were all winning trades. I’m not sure if this time it works or not, let’s see tomorrow.

 

The chart below is from stocktiming, institution sellings are increasing recently. Info only, it doesn’t mean anything significant for now though.

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

03/29/2010 After Bell Quick Summary

I have no trick today, so no idea about tomorrow. VIX dropped sharply before the close while SPX didn’t rise much which according to my observation usually means a gap up open tomorrow morning.

Percentage of the block sell was a little bit large on small caps. For QQQQ, it’s the 2nd consecutive day the percentage of the block sell was a little bit large.

03/26/2010 Market Recap: Rydex trader are very bullish

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 15 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): *BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L 03/15 low Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high VIX MA ENV     OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP 3 of 3 BUY *6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. *4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA ? 1 of 1 BUY *4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Symmetrical Triangle, wait to see to which direction it will breakout. *Hits multiple MA resistance.   EMERGING ? 2 of 2 SELL *Could be a Roof pattern, 83% chances of breaking on the downside. CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL *4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead. DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. *3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Top, target $23.74. *4.2.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Weekly): FXY breakdown below its long term trend line which is enough to set the intermediate-term from up to down. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Black bar and on a MA support, could rebound. GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL *Roof or Double Top? ENERGY ? 3 of 3 SELL *Sell signals by MACD and BPENER. FINANCIALS UP 3 of 3 BUY *Double black bar plus Shooting Star followed by a Spinning Top, expect a pullback. *4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Fib confluences area is at $16.76 - $16.97, could be the intermediate-term target. REITS UP 2 of 2 BUY *False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 2 of 3 BUY *4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. The last trading day of March, Dow down 10 of Last 15.
2. The first trading day in April, Dow up 12 of last 15.
3. the last 3 trading days of March is bearish, see Trading Trends: Last Four Trading Days of March.

In fact for the recent 7 months, almost all the last 3 trading days were not so bull friendly.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: PULLBACK FROM 03/25, REBOUND ON 04/01 THEN PULLBACK TO 04/12?

Let me list all the important date first:

1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily), potential cycle turn date are 03/31 and 04/01.

4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly), potential cycle turn week this week or the next week.

The most repeated Gann Days in April are 04/11, 04/14 and 04/15. Also I mentioned the 04/10 in the 03/22 Market Recap, it actually should be 04/12. It’s Fib 50% extension from 10/10/2002 low to 10/11/2007 high which according to the Gann Theory, is an very important point. So combine all those days together, looks like 04/12 to 04/15 are very important.

4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), see solid red lines, BPSPX too high means at most the SPX could rise for another week, it’ll then pullback at least for a week or two.

 

So to summarize above, considering the first 3 trading days of the next week are generally bearish while Thursday is bullish as mentioned above in the seasonality session, my guess is a Doji next week then SPX starts to pullback the next next week until around 04/12. Why couldn’t that SPX drop to 04/01 then rise to 04/12? Well, don’t forget 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly), the BPSPX is too high so SPX should pullback for a week or two which also conform with the chart 4.1.9 SPX Cycle Watch (Weekly).

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS THE NEXT MONDAY

As mentioned in the Friday’s After Bell Quick Summary, QQQQ black bar means 74% chances a red day the next day.

 

1.0.4 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 15 min), could be a Head and Shoulders Top breakdown while the Friday’s intraday rebound looks like a Bear Flag.

 

Rydex Enthusiasm Index, retailers buying dips were too aggressive.

 

% of Rydex Sector Assets Above MA(50), again retailers are too bullish.

 

The chart below is from Bespoke. This kind of  no decline for more than 1% will not last forever, won it?

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.