How does the width of prediction intervals for ARMA(p,q) models change as the forecast horizon increases? Grows to infinity at a square root rate Depends on the model parameters Converges to a fixed value Grows to infinity at a linear rate
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- If your graphing calculator is capable of computing a least-squares sinusoidal regression model, use it to find a second model for the data. Graph this new equation along with your first model. How do they compare?Define the asymptotically efficient GMM (Generalized method of moments) estimator?Define Estimation of Dynamic Multipliers Under Strict Exogeneity?
- If the lead time increases from 1 to 4 weeks, will the standard deviation of demand during thelead time increase four times? If not, why not?Researchers in the development of new treatments for cancer patients often evaluate the effectiveness of new therapies by reporting the proportion of patients who survive for a specified period of time after completion of the treatment. A new genetic treatment of 1024 patients with a particular type of cancer resulted in 173 patients surviving at least 5 years after treatment. We are interested if this new treatment will result in a survival rate higher than 15% after 5 years Describe the unknown parameter using the context of this study and correct symbol for this parameter State the null and alternative hypothesis for these data Calculate the test Round to four decimal places. Calculate the ?-value for this test (round to four decimal places), then provide a practical conclusion of these resultsBelow is data of lobster sales volume from a seafood company. We're are using exponential smoothing (α = 0.5) and 3-year moving average to forecast it. a) Fill the blanks above and write your processes below. b) What are the mean absolute deviations (MADs) of the two methods? Whichmethod will you choose based on the results? *Please solve for a-b, either type your work and answers or write them neatly on paper* thank you!
- A study of patients with stage 1 breast cancer is run to assess time to progression to stage II over an observation period of 15 years. Of interest is whether there is a difference in time to progression between patients on two different chemotherapy regimens. Times to progression are measured in years from the time at which the chemotherapy regimen was initiated. (using Excel and show the table) A) Estimate the survival functions (times to progression) for each chemotherapy regimen using the Kaplan-Meier approach. B) Sketch the two survival functions above. C) Test whether there is a significant difference in time to progression between treatment regimens using the log-rank test and a 5% level of significance. D) Compute and interpret the hazard ratio for progression to stage II with the regimen I as compared to regimen 2. Years to progression by chemotherapy regimen Regimen 11 Progression No progression 12 14 13 11 15 10 8 2 6 7 3 4 6 12 Regimen 2 Progression No progression 9 11 4 14…Suppose that an impending environmental regulation to control that hazard is expected to reduce the risk of premature death from 11/100,000 to 4/100,000 per year in that exposed population of 1.43 million people. If the value of a statistical life is 5 million, what is the maximum value of this regulation (in millions) so that the net benefit is positive?The short-run average total cost (ATC) curve of a firm will tend to be U-shaped because O larger fırms always have lower per-unit costs than smaller firms. at small output rates, AFC will be high, while at large output rates, MC will be high. diminishing returns will be present when output is small, while high AFC will push per-unit cost to high levels when output is large. diseconomies of scale will be present at both small and large output rates.
- Calculate the forecasted values of tempurature based on weeks using Moving Average with m = 3. Required: Complete the rest of the table: Week Tempurature Predicted |e| e^2 1 10 - - - 2 14 - - - 3 8 - - - 4 25 29 5 16 6 22 7 14 8 35 9 15 10 27 11 18 12 40 13 28 14 40 15 25 16 65 Calculate the MAE: Calculate the MSE: In which week was forecasted tempurature the furthest from the actual tempurature? Predict what the tempurate would be for Week 175 How does the dynamic CCE estimator solve the estimation problems of the PMG technique?A survey of 501 randomly chosen US adults found that 40% of the 225 men and 50% of the 276 women made an online purchase during the past month. Do these data provide statistical evidence at the α = 0.05 level that women are more likely than men to make online purchases? Be sure to state the parameter, check conditions, perform calculations, and make conclusion(s).
